Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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950 FXUS63 KJKL 092150 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 450 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain is expected for late this evening through tomorrow night. - Normal to above normal temperatures will occur through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 320 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024 Current satellite shows a pretty large comma cloud from an upper level low, centered over Nebraska. Subsequent clouds from a cold front extend from the Great Lakes region down into the Gulf of Mexico, where Tropical storm Rafael continues to stall out. Moisture from this tropical system is currently being ingested into the cold front located to the north. Current RH percentages reside in the 30-45% range, and are expected to become more saturated overnight. Increasing clouds will continue to work in with showers expected after sunset. Showers and thundershowers will likely be most persistent during the morning hours Sunday, across and north of the Mountain Parkway. Showers and thunderstorms continue through the afternoon tapering off heading into Monday morning. Lows tonight generally remain in the low to mid 50s, with highs Sunday in the mid to upper 60s. Southerly winds generally remain 5-10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in isolated areas. Skies will remain overcast through midnight Monday, beginning to clear out from northwest to southeast during the morning Monday. Lows will generally remain in the low to mid 50s, with upper 40s across the Bluegrass area. According to the HREF, areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/ Kentucky 80 Corridor, east of London, have a 50-70% probability of seeing 0.25 inches or more from this storm. Locations between the Hal Rogers Parkway/ Kentucky 80 Corridor and the Mountain Parkway generally have a 40-70% probability of seeing 0.50 inches or more from this storm, with probabilities increasing, heading north. Lastly, areas along and north of the I-64 Corridor have a 80-90% probability of seeing at least 0.50 inches from this storm. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 450 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024 The 09/12z model suite is in good agreement at the beginning of the period but diverges substantially by the second half of the period. Beginning Monday morning, forecaster analysis shows two shortwaves rotating through a broad mean trough over the eastern CONUS/Canada, while a ridge axis extends from Mexico north- northwest over the High Plains and on into Northwest Canada. Another 500H trough is found just off the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front extends from an ~993mb low north of Montreal southward into Southern New England, then southward along the Appalachians into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A second ~995mb low north of Lake Superior has an associated cold front sweeping out an arc into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and then southwestward out on to the Plains. The first cold front departs early Monday with low-level moisture gradually eroding from the northwest through the day. The secondary cold front quickly drops in from the north on Monday night with slight uptick in low-level moisture. Dry high pressure ridging then builds east from the Plains both aloft and at the surface for Tuesday and Wednesday. Model solutions trend more divergent as the the next trough traverses the CONUS, making its way through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and/or Thursday. Substantial differences are evident with respect to the timing and strength of this feature and its associated surface cold front. Due to limited moisture, LREF probs suggest only a 30 to 40% chance of a wetting rainfall (0.1 inch or greater) with this front. Another 500H ridge aloft and attendant surface high pass through our region on Friday and most likely remain close enough to keep dry conditions over eastern Kentucky through Saturday. In sensible terms, look for seasonable to above normal temperatures through the period. Any light rain showers or drizzle diminish from the northwest on Monday morning as low clouds erode. High temperatures are forecast to be mild, ranging from the lower 60s north of I-64 to the upper 60s in the in upper portions of the Cumberland River Valley (e.g Harlan, Middlesboro, etc.). The secondary cold front slides through Monday night, turning winds northerly and ushering in drier air. Expect lows to range from the mid/upper 30s north of I-64 to the low/mid 40s near the Virginia/Kentucky border. Cooler air follows the secondary front on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s in the Upper Cumberland River Valley, all under mostly sunny skies. More widespread lows in the 30s to around 40 are anticipated for Tuesday night before southerly return flow and mostly sunny skies boost afternoon temperatures back into the mid 60s to around 70 on Wednesday. Chance to likely PoPs attend the next cold front Wednesday night and/or Thursday. Cooler and dry weather is favored to follow for the remainder of the week with near to slightly above normal afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s and nighttime lows in the 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024 KSJS will continue to meander between MVFR and VFR conditions as localized smoke and haze from wildfires in West Virginia continue to cause reduced visibilities. Automated airport observations at KSJS have shown visibility as low as 3 miles this morning and afternoon. Conditions are expected to improve with an anticipated wind shift from easterly winds to southerly winds after 04Z Sunday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period as high pressure exits the Ohio Valley. Showers are expected to overspread the area through this evening and into the overnight, with rainfall impacting every terminal in some fashion before the end of the forecast window. Impacts to flight conditions are expected to drop from VFR into MVFR near the very end and/or just before the end of the forecast period. Winds shift from easterly to southerly between 00Z and 06Z and increase in intensity beyond 12Z to around 5 to 10 kts, with gusts generally remaining below 20 knots. Low-Level wind shear is expected at sites KSME and KSYM from 12Z-16Z or so, with 35-40kts out of the southwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...GINNICK