857
FXUS63 KJKL 091515
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1015 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest airmass so far this season arrives later today.

- The first snowflakes of the season are expected tonight into
  Monday from rounds of snow showers. Mainly light accumulations
  possible, especially on grass and elevated surfaces.

- With the snow tonight into Monday, locations nearer to the
  Virginia border are the most likely to have travel impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

The forecast has been updated using a blend of the 1 hour NBM and
a blend of CAMS guidance. The cold front is crossing eastern
Kentucky currently, and temperatures will fall through the day
after passage of this front. Overall, outside of tweaks to PoPs
for the next few hours, the forecast remains unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 555 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

Early this morning, an enlongated upper level low extend from
near James Bay to near Lake Superior with an upper trough south
across the western Great Lakes to parts of the Central Conus/MS
Valley. An upper level ridge meanwhile extended across much of
the western Conus. A shortwave is currently tracking across the
Lower OH Valley region while another is upstream over the mid MS
Valley and additional rotating into or across the upper MS Valley
and into the trough. A surface low associated with the shortwave
is tracking generally just north of the OH River and is over OH
while a trailing cold front was nearing eastern KY. An area of
showers and some isolated storms has been occurring near the
front most of the recent lightning activity near or north of
Interstate 64.

The initial shortwave will move east of the area early this
morning with a bit of a lull in shower chances from mid morning to
midday or so. However, the next shortwave will work across the
Commonwealth through the afternoon to early evening. Then the
upper low will track to near Chicago this evening and then
southeast into the OH Valley for Monday as the pattern amplifies
significantly with an upper trough from eastern Canada into the
eastern Conus and upper ridging over much of the western Conus
into the High Plains. This upper level low is expected to track
across eastern Ky during the day on Monday and likely be over
eastern KY on Monday afternoon.

Cold air advection will result in a high this morning to midday,
before the next shortwave brings a reinforcing shot of colder air
and temperatures fall through the afternoon. The top of Black
Mountain should drop below freezing during the afternoon with all
of the region dropping to near or below freezing by late evening
into the overnight hours. In addition, as the next couple of
shortwaves tracks across eastern KY later today and tonight in
advance of the approaching upper low, showers are expected at
times as low level moisture remains and the low level flow becomes
more upslope. Rain showers should mix with and then change to
snow showers first at elevations above 3500 feet late this
afternoon to early this evening and across the remainder of the
region this evening through around midnight.

Snow showers tonight, should result in light snow accumulations
for many locations. As temperatures drop toward the 20s, a
dusting to a half of an inch are possible tonight, mainly on grass
and elevated surfaces and in particular for locations at 1500
feet elevation and above. Above 2000 feet, an inch or more may
fall tonight. Some travel impacts are possible during the Monday
morning commute.

Temperatures will only rise into the low to mid 30s on Monday and
additional periods of snow showers are forecast, with coverage of
snow showers likely peaking as the upper low tracks nearer to and
over the area combines with peak heating/peak solar insolation
resulting in steepening lapse rates. Event total snow
accumulations which extend into Monday night of an inch or less
are forecast in valleys and west of Interstate 75, while event
totals around 2 inches are possible at elevations of 1500 feet and
above. Some or all of this snow accumulation during the day on
Monday may partially or completely melt in between rounds of snow
showers and snow depths at any point should be less than event
totals. Nevertheless, travel impacts will remain possible during
the day on Monday into Monday night if not from snow accumulations
but visibility reductions. Confidence is highest for accumulations
and travel impacts for this early season event for the 4 VA border
counties. It is possible as the event nears and becomes more
entrenched in convective allowing models and HREF guidance that
more counties further north and/or northwest may need to be added.
At this point, an SPS was issued to heighten awareness of the
first snowfall of the season and accompanying social media posts
will also be issued.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 555 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

The period is expected to begin with an upper level low passing through
the eastern Great Lakes to Appalachian region with an upper trough
extending from eastern Canada across the Great Lakes into the
Southeast to eastern Gulf. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure
should extend from the southwest Conus to the Central Rockies to
Northern Plains. The period should begin with the coldest airmass
so far this season in place with 850 mb temperatures around -10C
at that point. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected
to centered near the New England coast as the period begins with
sfc high pressure centered in the eastern OK/Arklatex regions and
extending north to the Upper MS Valley.

Monday night to Tuesday night, a shortwave rotating around the
upper low should be moving east of eastern KY while one final
shortwave should rotate into the mid OH Valley/Central
Appalachians Monday evening into Monday night. Thereafter, a
period of general height rises is anticipated into Tuesday night.
Further west and northwest, additional shortwaves will move
around upper ridging reasserting itself over the western
Conus/Rockies. These shortwaves should pass from the Saskatchewan
and Manitoba across the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the
Northeast. Sfc high pressure will shift east across the Gulf coast
states through this period as an area of low pressure moves into
Ontario late in the period. This systems warm front should lift
across the Commonwealth late Tuesday into Tuesday night while the
trailing cold front reaches the Central Great Lakes to mid MS
Valley and approaches the Lower OH Valley late on Tuesday night.

The combination of the final shortwave passing around the upper
low and warm air advection aloft should end remaining snow showers
and flurries by late Monday evening into the overnight and an
eventual clearing trend. However, evening snow showers on Monday
could leave a dusting to a half of an inch of accumulation with a
half of an inch to an inch in any locations of heavier or more
persistent snow showers. Otherwise, height pressure should remain
dominant into Tuesday evening when a warm front lifts across the
area and a shortwave near. Even with clearing not occurring until
late and eastern valleys relatively warmer than areas further
west, lows for Monday night will be the coldest so far this fall.

Wednesday to Thursday night, an upper ridge initially over the
western Conus is expected to shift across the Rockies and into the
Plains and Central Conus and near the MS Valley late Thursday
night. Further east, the axis of an upper trough from eastern
Canada into the eastern Conus should shift to and off the eastern
seaboard. Height rises are expected across eastern Ky from late
Wednesday into Thursday night. As this occurs, a cold front
crosses eastern Ky with nothing more than increase in clouds as
the airmass in behind it will be much milder than the early week
airmass. Sfc high pressure builds from the Central and Northern
Plains into the OH valley Wednesday night to Thursday with the
high expected to become centered over the Appalachians Thursday
night.

Friday and Saturday, further height rises are anticipates across
eastern KY into Friday and possibly Friday night as well as the
upper ridge moves into the eastern Conus and troughing gradually
moves form the western Conus toward the Plains. A warm front
lifting into the Commonwealth Friday night could result in a few
showers across the region, but mainly dry weather should continue
as the next more significant chances for precipitation should not
occur until the latter half of next weekend if not early next
week. Temperatures are expected to rise to near normal to as much
as 5 to 10 degrees above normal to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions were reported at issuance
time as a cold front is moving into eastern KY. Showers ahead of
the front should depart to the east of the area within the first
hour or two of the period. However, as the front crosses the area,
MVFR is expected to spread east across the area along and behind
it through 18Z. As additional upper disturbances cross the area
after 18Z, additional rounds of showers, mixed rain and snow or
all snow after 00Z, along with instances of IFR or lower ceilings
are forecast along with some visibility reductions. Initial south
to west winds of 5 to 10KT will switch to the west and then
northwest and increase to 10 to 15KT behind the front behind the
front with some gusts to around 20KT. Winds should gradually
decrease to 5 to 10KT to end the period and remain from the
northwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for KYZ087-088-118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP