656
FXUS63 KJKL 210533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
133 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through
  Friday, mainly in southeast Kentucky during afternoon and
  evening hours. There is a little bit better potential for
  thunderstorms area wide with the approach and passage of the
  next cold front during the weekend.

- A noticeable cool-down should arrive after passage of a cold
  front during the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 850 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows a cold front actively slipping through far
southeast Kentucky with a lingering threat of a stray shower or
thunderstorm over the next few hours. Behind this, an area of high
pressure will bring in slightly drier and cooler air through the
overnight hours. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper
70s and lower 80s. Meanwhile, amid generally north winds of 5 to
10 mph, dewpoints vary from the mid 60s northwest to the low and
mid 70s over the rest of the area. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also adjust the PoPs through the rest of the night per the
current radar images and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025

A cold front has passed to our south, but air mass change is slow
to occur. Heating has resulted in shower and thunderstorm
development even behind the front due to the lingering moist air
mass, with the most prevalent activity in our southern counties
closest to the front. With loss of heating/instability and the
front slowly sinking further south, precip will eventually die
out this evening. Still can`t rule out a few more
showers/thunderstorms popping up in southeast KY on Thursday
afternoon, as there will be trouble displacing the warm and humid
air. These will once again die out in the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025

The period is expected to begin with weak upper level troughing from
the Central and Southern Appalachians to Southern TX/northwest Gulf
while an upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners region
encompasses much of the western Conus. Meanwhile, further north, an
upper level low is expected to be in the vicinity of the Saskatchewan
and Manitoba border with troughing south into the Dakotas. At the
surface, an inverted trough west of the Appalachians associated with
the upper trough axis in the vicinity should extend into eastern KY
with a ridge of high pressure from the St Lawrence Valley to the
Southern Great Lakes to mid MS Valley. In advance of the upper level
low and trough in Canada to parts of the Plains, a sfc low is
expected to initially be centered southwest of Hudson Bay with a
cold front trailing to another sfc wave in the NE/SD border area and
then to the Rockies/portions of the Great Basin.

Friday to Friday night, the upper low is Canada per the guidance
consensus should trek east southeast into Ontario with the associated
upper trough working across parts of the Upper MS Valley to mid MS
Valley and nearing the western Great Lakes. This will occur
downstream of upper ridging centered in the western Conus that
builds into the Pacific Northwest and toward the Arklatex region and
mid south. Weak upper troughing is also expected linger from the
Appalachians to the TX Gulf coast vicinity. Inverted troughing
should linger west of the Appalachians if not futher west to the
west of the Cumberland Plateau while the sfc low in Canada tracks to
near James Bay with the cold front working into the Great Lakes to
mid MS Valley to Central Plains to the western Conus/Great Basin
area. Mainly diurnally driven convection is possible on Friday
generally over the further east and southern locales nearer to the
upper trough axis and anticipated location of the inverted trough on
Friday. Temperatures should average near normal.

Saturday to Sunday night, the upper level low should move from
Ontario to near the Ontario and Quebec border with another shortwave
or two moving around the ridging over the western Conus into western
Canada and into the troughing and helping lead toward the evolution
of an upper trough from Canada into the eastern Conus. The first
shortwave trough should reach the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH
Valley late Saturday evening into Saturday night and cross eastern
KY on Sunday. As the associated sfc low tracks into Quebec and
trailing cold front should sweep across the Central and eastern
Great Lakes and into the Northeast to mid Atlantic states to
Southeast over the weekend. This boundary should cross eastern KY
during the late Saturday night to Sunday timeframe with sfc high
pressure nosing into the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley Sunday night.
This frontal passage will usher in a transition to a cooler and
drier trend for next week. However, near and ahead of the boundary
over the weekend, showers and storms will be possible, generally
peaking diurnally. Guidance trends continue to support the higher
chances for convection both on Saturday and Sunday in the more
eastern and southern locations. Temperatures should remain near
normal for Saturday and Saturday night ahead of the front and then
trend to a few degrees below normal for Sunday into Sunday night.

Monday to Wednesday, the axis of an upper level trough should
gradually work east across the Central Great Lakes and OH Valley to
Quebec to the mid Atlantic states to the Southeast Conus downstream
of upper level ridging centered in the Southwest Conus to Southern
Plains that is progged to gradually build into portions of the
Central Conus at midweek. Sfc high pressure will build into the
Lower OH Valley region and Appalachians from the Central and
Northern Plains and mid and Upper MS Valley during this period.
Cooler and drier air will be ushered into eastern KY by the high
with temperatures expected to be 10 to as much as 15 degrees below
normal for Monday to Wednesday. The cooler and drier trend should
remain to end the month of August per long range guidance and CPC
outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

Terminals are VFR with this TAF issuance but over the next few
hours, CIGS will fall into MVFR and remain MVFR through the early
morning. Also, with clearing skies, fog may develop and aid in the
reduction of flight categories. Once the sunrise arrives, warming
will burn off any fog and bring CIGS back into categorical VFR.
Lastly, winds will be light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST