Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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915
FNUS72 KJAX 250908
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for Ashley WF...NPS
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
508 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on July 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated showers will be possible at the wildfire site during
the predawn hours today. Otherwise, dry and increasingly hot
and humid conditions are expected today through the weekend,
followed by a gradual increase in rain chances next week.
Southerly surface and transport winds this morning will shift
to southeasterly this afternoon, with breezy conditions
expected through sunset. These breezy conditions will yield
fair daytime dispersion values today. Surface and transport
winds will shift to southerly late this evening, with breezy
transport winds expected before winds shift to southwesterly
and then westerly overnight with decreasing speeds. Light
west-northwesterly surface and transport winds are then
expected on Saturday morning, with winds then shifting to
southerly and southeasterly during the afternoon hours.
Lighter transport speeds on Saturday will result in poor
daytime dispersion values.

.TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  14  10  9   7   10  8   11  14  11  10  11
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20  20  20
Temp............78  78  81  84  87  89  90  90  90  89  89  87
RH..............91  94  91  80  72  68  65  65  60  65  65  70
Heat index (F)..77  77  87  92  97  100 102 102 100 99  98  95
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   5   6   7   8   9   10  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   9   10  13  14  16  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   9   8   8   8   9   9   10  12  13  14  15
Dispersion idx..5   4   15  20  25  30  30  30  30  35  35  35
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........12  11  12  12  12  11  11  13  11  8   10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............86  85  83  82  81  80  80  80  79  79  78  78
RH..............70  75  80  85  85  88  88  85  88  88  91  88
Heat index (F)..95  91  89  89  87  86  86  79  79  78  77  77
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   7   6   5   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.16  14  13  10  9   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  15  14  13  12  10  9   8   7   7
Dispersion idx..30  30  15  10  8   7   6   5   4   4   3   3
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6

.SATURDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   8   5   5   4   3   5   7   9   7   6   4
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............78  77  80  84  87  90  92  92  92  91  90  89
RH..............88  94  91  77  70  60  55  55  55  60  60  65
Heat index (F)..77  78  86  93  99  103 106 106 106 105 103 101
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   7   8   9
20 FT wind gust.3   3   6   6   6   7   7   9   9   10  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   8   9   12
Dispersion idx..3   5   7   15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   3

$$
Forecaster...Nelson
Requested by...Megan Hurrell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518440.2/JAX
.DELDT 07/25/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL megan_hurrell@nps.gov