Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FNUS72 KJAX 031251
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for Gold Head Rx...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
851 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A few sprinkles or light showers will be possible through the
early afternoon hours today. Heavier showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms are then expected to push across the burn site
during the mid to late afternoon hours today. A lull in shower
activity is possible this evening, followed by waves of
downpours and embedded thunderstorms likely overnight
throughout the day on Wednesday. Otherwise, light northeasterly
surface and transport winds at ignition time will quickly shift
to easterly by the late morning hours, with breezy conditions
expected this afternoon through around sunset. These breezy
conditions will offset increasing cloud cover this morning to
create good daytime dispersion values, followed by these values
slowly decreasing later this afternoon as the first round of
heavier showers impacts the burn site. Easterly surface and
transport winds will slowly diminish after sunset and will then
shift to southeasterly shortly after sunrise on Wednesday, with
breezy conditions again developing during the mid to late
morning hours. Widespread cloud cover and rounds of downpours
on Wednesday will keep dispersion values in the poor to fair
range.

.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  45  55  62  58  73  76  76  71
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  40  50  50  60  60  60
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   20  20  20  30  30  30  30
Temp............75  79  82  85  86  87  87  86  85
RH..............87  75  65  60  55  55  55  60  60
Heat index (F)..78  88  92  93  95  93  95  92  93
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   9   9   12  13  13  13  13  14
20 FT wind gust.9   13  14  17  20  20  21  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.3
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   10  12  13  14  14  16  16  17
Dispersion idx..25  35  50  50  50  45  45  45  45
LVORI...........3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........71  77  84  74  78  69  79  79  81  95  91  89
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  50  50  50  40  40  50  50  50  50  60
Chc of thdr (%).30  30  20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10
Temp............83  82  80  77  76  75  75  74  73  72  72  71
RH..............65  67  72  79  82  84  87  90  93  97  97  100
Heat index (F)..91  88  83  77  75  74  74  73  72  72  72  72
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..13  13  10  9   8   8   7   6   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.20  17  14  14  10  10  10  10  9   7   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  14  13  12  12  12  10  10  10  10
Dispersion idx..45  40  20  15  10  8   8   8   7   7   7   7
LVORI...........1   3   3   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6

.WEDNESDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  87  81  82  82  83  84  86  87  85  83  82
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  80  80  80  80
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  80  80  80  40
Temp............71  71  73  76  78  80  81  81  82  82  83  83
RH..............97  97  93  87  85  79  77  77  74  74  72  70
Heat index (F)..71  71  73  76  78  84  86  86  87  87  89  88
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   7   8   9   10  12  12  12  12  10  10
20 FT wind gust.9   9   10  13  14  16  17  17  17  17  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  13  16  17  17  15  14  15  17  18
Dispersion idx..7   10  20  25  30  35  35  30  30  30  30  30
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Nelson
Requested by...Gabrielle Bradley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2515272.0/JAX
.DELDT 06/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gabrielle.bradley@floridadep.gov