Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
301 FNUS72 KJAX 020900 FWSJAX Spot Forecast for Ashley...NPS National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on August 02. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... Much more unsettled weather day today with potential thunderstorm impacts this afternoon as a front comes to a stall very close to the fire area. Initially, light westerly winds continue until the sea breeze kicks across the island around 1-2 PM this afternoon. At that time, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the fire area as the front and sea breeze begin to interact. Late this afternoon and evening, added energy from an impulse riding along the front will instigate stronger thunderstorm development and a few storms may become severe with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. Heavy rainfall will also accompany the these storms and there will be potentially 2-3 waves of storms over the area through the evening hours. With that said, wind directions and speed will be dependent on the evolution of storms near the fire after 2-3 PM. The front will stall close the FL/GA line through Sunday with numerous storms with similar hazards expected once again. .TODAY... TIME (EDT) 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM Sky (%).........46 57 58 54 62 49 43 45 41 60 76 75 Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 10 20 30 40 40 70 80 80 80 Chc of thdr (%).10 10 20 10 20 30 40 40 70 80 80 80 Temp............79 77 80 83 88 90 91 91 91 92 89 88 RH..............88 97 91 82 70 64 60 60 62 60 66 63 Heat index (F)..78 78 87 92 97 102 103 106 108 106 101 99 Wind chill (F)..78 78 80 83 86 89 90 92 92 92 89 87 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W NW NE E E E E 20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.4 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W SW S SE SE E NE Transp wind spd.12 12 12 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 Dispersion idx..8 8 17 22 26 28 28 29 30 26 21 16 LVORI...........5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM Sky (%).........76 74 81 75 82 79 70 60 59 61 50 72 Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).70 60 50 70 70 60 40 30 30 30 30 20 Chc of thdr (%).70 60 50 50 50 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 Temp............87 82 80 79 79 78 78 78 77 77 76 76 RH..............68 77 85 91 91 91 91 91 90 94 94 94 Heat index (F)..99 92 87 86 86 79 78 78 77 76 76 75 Wind chill (F)..87 83 81 80 80 79 78 78 77 76 76 75 20 FT wind dir..NE NE E NE E E W NW W W W NW 20 FT wind spd..6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT wind gust.9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 Transp wind dir.NE N N N E SE SE S SW W W W Transp wind spd.9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 Dispersion idx..16 15 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 LVORI...........4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 .SUNDAY... TIME (EDT) 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM Sky (%).........61 61 69 62 59 56 60 63 67 65 62 60 Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF Chc of pcpn (%).20 30 50 50 50 50 50 50 90 90 90 90 Chc of thdr (%).20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 80 80 80 70 Temp............76 74 77 79 83 85 86 87 87 86 85 84 RH..............94 100 97 91 80 77 75 72 72 75 75 77 Heat index (F)..76 76 77 86 89 95 96 97 99 99 97 97 Wind chill (F)..76 76 77 80 82 85 86 86 87 87 86 86 20 FT wind dir..N NW NW N N N N NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 13 13 13 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 Transp wind dir.NW N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE Transp wind spd.6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 Dispersion idx..3 4 10 13 15 17 18 20 23 24 25 26 LVORI...........7 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ Forecaster...Boothe Requested by...Megan Hurrell Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2518733.5/JAX .DELDT 08/02/25 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL megan_hurrell@nps.gov