Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
575 FNUS72 KJAX 040856 FWSJAX Spot Forecast for Ashley WF...NPS National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 456 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on August 04. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... A stalled front will remain across the site area today into Tuesday with afternoon to early evening showers and T`storms each day. Today, light southerly winds will become easterly 8-12 mph behind Atlantic seabreeze passage near midday with increasing chances for showers and T`storms from midday into the early to mid afternoon hours. A threat for strong T`storms producing gusty wet downburst winds near the site will exist from 3PM-6PM this afternoon with T`storm activity slowly winding down after 8PM. Slow moving T`storms may also produce a localized threat for flash flooding in low lying and flood prone areas. Light to moderate transport winds near the coast will create fair to poor daytime dispersions today and again Tuesday. .TODAY... TIME (EDT) 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM Sky (%).........46 43 41 30 28 36 33 31 35 30 38 37 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 30 30 30 30 40 50 50 50 70 Chc of thdr (%).20 20 10 10 10 30 30 30 50 50 50 70 Temp............75 76 78 80 85 87 88 88 88 88 88 86 RH..............100 97 94 88 77 72 70 70 70 70 70 75 Heat index (F)..75 75 79 89 96 96 98 99 99 100 97 97 Wind chill (F)..75 75 79 82 85 86 87 88 88 88 86 86 20 FT wind dir..S SW W S S SE E E E E E E 20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 20 FT wind gust.5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 13 14 14 15 Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 Transp wind dir.S SE SE SE S S SE SE E E E E Transp wind spd.6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 13 14 Dispersion idx..3 3 6 9 12 17 20 23 25 29 32 34 LVORI...........7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM Sky (%).........36 45 66 57 59 50 43 32 30 16 24 25 Weather cov.....DEF DEF LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).80 80 60 50 40 40 30 10 20 20 10 10 Chc of thdr (%).80 80 50 50 40 20 20 10 20 20 10 10 Temp............85 83 81 80 80 79 79 79 79 79 78 77 RH..............77 80 85 88 88 91 91 91 91 88 91 94 Heat index (F)..94 94 87 86 86 86 79 79 78 78 78 78 Wind chill (F)..84 84 81 80 80 80 79 79 78 78 78 78 20 FT wind dir..E E E SE SE S SE SE S S S S 20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT wind gust.14 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Transp wind dir.E E E E SE SE SE SE S S S S Transp wind spd.14 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 7 Dispersion idx..33 30 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 .TUESDAY... TIME (EDT) 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM Sky (%).........17 21 13 19 18 16 20 25 29 31 32 34 Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 30 30 30 30 30 30 80 80 80 80 Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 70 70 70 60 Temp............77 76 80 82 86 88 89 89 89 88 87 85 RH..............94 97 88 85 75 70 68 68 68 70 72 77 Heat index (F)..79 86 88 92 97 100 102 103 105 105 103 99 Wind chill (F)..79 80 81 83 86 88 89 90 90 90 89 87 20 FT wind dir..S SW SW SW S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW S S SE SE SE E Transp wind spd.7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 Dispersion idx..3 3 6 9 12 16 18 21 25 27 27 25 LVORI...........6 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ Forecaster...Bricker Requested by...Patrick Lacienski Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2519095.1/JAX .DELDT 08/04/25 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL patrick_lacienski@nps.gov