904
FXUS62 KJAX 300104
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
804 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Cold Weather Outbreak This Weekend & Early Next Week. Freeze
Warning & Frost Advisory for Inland Locations Tonight. Extreme Cold
Watch Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens
Possible Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Dangerously Cold
Wind Chills in the Teens & Single Digits

- Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to
40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters

- LOW Potential for Snowfall Saturday and Saturday Evening.
Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) are 5-10% Across
Southeast GA

&&

.UPDATE...

Have expanded the Frost advisory this evening to include most areas
west of US-17 including western Clay, Putnam, and most of Marion
county including Ocala. A slight downtrend in guidance helps support
colder inland lows as skies remain mostly clear tonight with calm
winds away from the beaches. Freeze warning remains in effect for
inland SE GA where lows will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s. Lows
along the coast and St Johns river will only fall to the low 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Freezing low temperatures are expected tonight for portions of
inland southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid to upper 30s
elsewhere inland with 40s near the coast. Calm winds overnight will
allow for areas to widespread frost formation not only in the Freeze
Warning area, but for portions of inland northeast Florida as well,
where a Frost Advisory is now in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure will shift across the FL panhandle, reaching the
Atlantic by Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday
as the Low pressure shifts across the area. This will allow for
warmer air to filter into the area, which will bring daytime highs
to in the 60s area-wide. By Friday night, isolated showers may be
possible across SE GA and NE FL as the Low pushes over the Atlantic.
Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s as winds
shift to become northwesterly, bringing in colder air into the area.

By Saturday the surface Low will begin to deepen over the Atlantic
waters leading to northwesterly winds to gradually increase locally
through the afternoon hours, continuing the advection of colder air
into the local area. We could see some light wintry mix during the
afternoon to evening hours on Saturday as moisture moves onshore,
with chances of any wintry precip mainly along the Altamaha River
Basin in SE GA and coastal locations. With cold air filtering into
the area will bring overnight temperatures to dip into the teens
across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL, with a Freeze Watch in
place area-wide. The elevated northwesterly winds will cause for
wind chills to drop into the single digits by Sunday morning,
promptly the insurance of an Extreme Cold Watch (the first for the
JAX CWA). With the cold temperatures expected to last well into the
afternoon hours on Sunday, both watches currently are in effect
until 1pm Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Dry and cold conditions on Sunday as the Low continues to shift
towards the north-northeast. The elevated winds will begin to weaken
by Sunday night as high pressure builds over the region.
Temperatures will begin to warm through the upcoming week as highs
will reach into the 50s on Monday and Tuesday and then the 60s by
Wednesday and Thursday. Freeze products will likely be needed on
Sunday/Monday night as sub freezing temperatures remain over the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

The 00Z TAF period will feature prevailing VFR conditions. Light
east winds will become calm by 02Z at all sites as weakening high
pressure stays over the area. Higher level clouds will increase on
Saturday afternoon as low pressure begin to develop to the west of
the area with light winds from the southwest varying to the
northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

Light east to northeast winds will become variable Friday as
weakening high pressure remains over the waters. A developing
low pressure system will shift east from the Gulf coast to off
the Carolina coast Friday night into early Saturday with a
powerful arctic front plunging across the waters Saturday
afternoon. This very strong front will bring strong winds and
gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-
force Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as the low
deepens as it moves northeastward. There will be a low chance of
a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night
as moisture wraps around the low leading to occasional periods
of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and
over the waters during the early and middle part of next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end
Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL
beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- MinRH levels below 30 percent will be common Sunday and Monday
- Low daytime Dispersions inland Friday and Wednesday
- Widespread High daytime Dispersions Saturday and Sunday
- Areas of high dispersions Monday

Low pressure will develop northeast of the region Today, then track
away to the northeast over the weekend. A very cold airmass will be
in place over the weekend. High pressure will build early in the
week. A cold front will move southaast across area Wednesday night
and Thursday, bringing chances for rain.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
this morning or Tonight. Snow may mix with rain at times over SE GA
and coastal NE FL Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, January 31:
JAX 40/1909
CRG 43/1977
GNV 47/1909
AMG 44/1948

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 42/1900
CRG 44/1980
GNV 41/1909
AMG 42/1980

Record Low Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 24/1977
CRG 29/1977
GNV 25/1977
AMG 22/1977

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979
CRG 27/1980
GNV 25/1980
AMG 19/1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  29  60  33  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  41  60  41  51 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  35  66  39  51 /   0  10  20  10
SGJ  41  67  44  56 /   0   0  20  10
GNV  34  68  40  51 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  34  69  41  53 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-
     425-522.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
     132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
     340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ153-165.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
     264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
     364.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
     for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$