962
FXUS62 KJAX 110957
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
557 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. West-
northwesterly surface winds will remain sustained around 10 knots
through around 18Z. A weak Atlantic sea breeze will develop
during the late afternoon hours at coastal locations, resulting in
surface winds shifting to southeasterly at 5-10 knots at SGJ and
southerly at 5-10 knots at SSI after 20Z. Surface winds will
diminish towards sunset at the inland terminals, with light
westerly winds developing at SSI and SGJ overnight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts strengthening low pressure (999
millibars) situated near the North Carolina Outer Banks.
Meanwhile, high pressure (1020 millibars) was building eastward
from the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of this storm system.
Aloft...troughing departing the southeastern seaboard was creating
deep and dry northwesterly flow locally. Otherwise, flat ridging
was building over the Southern Plains states downstream of a
cutoff trough that was approaching southern California. Fair skies
now prevail area-wide as cold air stratocumulus has pushed
offshore, with a tight local pressure gradient keeping gusty
northwesterly winds in place across coastal southeast GA and most
of northeast and north central FL, while winds were diminishing
across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures
and dewpoints at 08Z were falling through the 40s throughout
southeast GA and inland portions of northeast FL, while breezy
conditions were keeping temperatures in the lower 50s along the
northeast FL coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Our local pressure gradient will gradually loosen today as
strengthening low pressure accelerates northeastward away from the
southeastern seaboard and weak high pressure builds eastward
across the Gulf of Mexico. Dry northwesterly flow will continue
across the Deep South through tonight, advecting a very dry air
mass into our area. Full sunshine, gradually diminishing
northwesterly winds, and the dry air mass will allow cool
temperatures in the 40s early this morning to quickly rebound to
the mid and upper 70s at inland locations. The loosening local
pressure gradient will allow a weak Atlantic sea breeze boundary
to develop by the mid-afternoon hours at coastal locations, with
this boundary progressing slowly inland towards I-95 towards
sunset. A late afternoon sea breeze should keep coastal highs
closer to 70 degrees today.

Surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will continue building
eastward overnight, with high pressure reaching the FL peninsula
towards sunrise on Wednesday. Low level flow will back to westerly
overnight, with decoupling winds expected this evening, allowing
for radiational cooling to occur overnight. This will allow lows
to fall to the low and mid 40s at inland locations overnight,
ranging to the upper 40s to around 50 at coastal locations.
Patchy fog formation is possible along and west of Interstate 75
in north central FL and the Suwannee Valley towards sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Dry high pressure continues over the area Wednesday, with some
moisture beginning to fill back in by Thursday afternoon. Expect
clear sunny skies Wednesday, with daytime highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Clouds will begin to increase over night into
Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s and coastal
temperatures remaining slightly warmer. An upper level trough
will move across the area from west to east on Thursday
afternoon, creating partly cloudy skies and increasing chances for
some precipitation (10-20%), mainly over inland southeast
Georgia. Daytime highs will be slightly cooler with the cloud
coverage in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Low pressure builds in the central plains Friday, producing a
cold front that will push into the area around late Saturday to
early Sunday. High pressure will build in behind the front at the
beginning of next week. Expect sky coverage to increase from
partly cloudy to overcast skies into Sunday, with the chance for
rain beginning late Saturday evening with the potential for
general thunderstorms on Sunday. Sky conditions will clear into
Monday afternoon to mostly sunny. Daytime highs will bounce
between the mid 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows warming into
the 50s and 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Strengthening low pressure situated near the Outer Banks will
accelerate northeastward today, passing north of Bermuda tonight.
Strong northwesterly winds will continue through the morning hours
today in the wake of this storm system, with Gale Warnings in
effect offshore and Small Craft Advisories near shore. Winds will
subside to Small Craft Advisory levels around 20 knots early this
afternoon offshore and will diminish back to Caution levels by
late afternoon. Seas of 6-9 feet for the offshore waters this
morning will subside to Caution levels of 4-6 feet this afternoon.
Seas of 3-5 feet near shore today will subside to 2-3 feet by this
evening.

Meanwhile, weak high pressure centered over western portions of
the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward today and tonight, becoming
centered over the Florida peninsula by early Wednesday morning.
Winds and seas will quickly diminish this afternoon and tonight as
this feature approaches our region. High pressure will then shift
offshore by Wednesday evening, with prevailing southwesterly
winds then expected through Thursday night. Another high pressure
center building over New England late this week will briefly wedge
down the southeastern seaboard on Friday, shifting winds to
onshore. Southeasterly winds will then strengthen late Friday
night and Saturday well ahead of a cold front that will enter the
southeastern states on Sunday, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possibly beginning on Saturday evening across our local
waters.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and diminishing seas today
will result in a low rip current risk at area beaches. A long
period northeasterly ocean swell will then arrive on Wednesday,
increasing the threat to a moderate risk at all area beaches. This
swell will diminish on Thursday, likely returning the risk to low.
Developing onshore winds on Friday may create a lower end moderate
threat, followed by strengthening southeasterly winds and building
seas that will likely create a high risk at area beaches during
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Conditions dry out today, dropping min RH values at inland areas
for the next couple of days. Southeast Georgia will see min RH
values in the low to mid 30s today, with values in the upper 20s
to low 30s Wednesday. Northeast Florida will see values in the mid
20s to mid 30s today and tomorrow. Dispersion values will be
generally good today and Wednesday, with patchy high dispersion
developing Thursday as southwest transport winds increase into the
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Minor flooding is expected to begin soon along the St. Marys River
near the gauge at Macclenny, with a crest now expected to reach
moderate flood status on Wednesday evening. Water levels along
this portion of the St. Marys River will likely remain in a minor
flood through the upcoming weekend. Rises along the Suwannee River
may result in backwater flooding along lower portions of the Santa
Fe River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates by late in the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

4.07 inches of rainfall was measured at the Jacksonville
International Airport between Sunday morning and Monday morning.
This 24-hour total is the 8th highest total for the month of
March since rainfall records began at Jacksonville in 1872. This
total is also the third highest 24-hour rainfall total at the
Jacksonville International Airport since observations were moved
to this location in 1971. A daily rainfall record was also set at
Alma, GA during this event on Sunday (1.86 inches on March 10th).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  43  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  49  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  44  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  73  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  76  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  77  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to noon EDT today
     for AMZ470.

     Gale Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$