271
FXUS62 KJAX 281714
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
114 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Tonight: Scattered to numerous storms still on track to develop
later this afternoon as the Gulf Coast sea breeze meets with the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze along the US-17/I-95 corridors, with a
few strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall expected,
before activity pushes offshore this evening around sunset.
Steering flow becomes a bit more West to Southwest during the
overnight hours and with PWATs pushing close to 2 inches, an
overnight shower anywhere cannot be ruled out, but will most
likely re-develop along the NE Gulf Coast/Big Bend area in the low
level convergence due to the W-SW flow, similar to this morning,
with another round of potential showers/isolated storms pushing
into the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL around sunrise. Otherwise
expect fair skies due to plentiful convective debris clouds as low
temps fall into the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along
the Atlantic Coastal/beach locations.

Sunday: Moist West-Southwest steering flow with PWATs continuing
around 2 inches or more aloft will lead to another wetter than
normal day with scattered to numerous storms area-wide as the Gulf
coast sea breeze pushes inland once again and meets the East Coast
sea breeze close to the US-17/I-95 corridors by the afternoon
hours, along with a few strong storms due to the merger with main
threats still on track to be heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Slightly higher coverage of storms and cloud cover will lead to
Max Temps around 90F area-wide with heat indices still topping out
around 100F. Early morning convection along the I-75 corridor will
fade slightly before perking back up by the late morning hours as
the Gulf Coast sea breeze develops and begins to push E-NE in the
steering flow pattern in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will begin to move off the
Atlantic coast by early evening hours on Sunday. The overall
steering flow will again be from the southwest on Monday, which
will again allow for the Gulf breeze to make its way well inland
and eventually towards the Atlantic coast. Similar to the past
weekend, showers and storms will begin to develop during the mid-
afternoon as the Gulf breeze moves inland, and along the I-95
corridor as the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze meet, with activity
expected to continue into the early evening hours.

Overnight lows in to lower 70s for inland locations and mid to
upper 70s for coastal locations on Sunday and Monday night.
Daytime highs will in the lower 90s along the Altamaha River Basin
and the mid to upper 80s for inland locations, with the "coolest"
temps expected for inland locations of northeast Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Continued moisture advection from the Gulf as southwesterly flow
continues through much of the upcoming week as a trough looks to
dig south towards the SE CONUS during the later half of the week.
If this holds true, we will likely see PWATs push to sit in the
1.8" to 2.25" range. With all this moisture sitting overhead,
heavy downpours will be likely for any showers/storms that develop
as the Gulf breeze moves inland and towards the Atlantic coast as
it meets up with the Atlantic breeze during the afternoon to
evening hours each day. With the heavy downpours, localized
flooding will be a concern with any slow moving showers/storms and
for those locations that see repeated days of showers/storms.
Drier air may be able to reach the local area by the end of the
week and into the weekend as the trough digs southward. Temps will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day through midweek. By the
end of the week, temps look to be in the lower 90s area wide.
Increase in moisture will likely push heat index values toward the
lower triple digits by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Increased mid/high clouds early this afternoon from decaying
convection over the FL Big Bend/NE Gulf region is delaying the
onset of deeper convection with sea breeze activity and will need
to push TEMPO groups back a few hours for the NE FL TAF sites and
keep just a PROB30 group at SSI, mainly in the 21-01Z time frame
with convection pushing offshore after 01-02Z time frame with just
lingering VFR mid/high clouds through the overnight hours, except
for some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ from 07-11Z time frame. Expect
some early morning VCSH chances at GNV by 12-14Z, but not at the
coastal TAF sites until the 15-17Z time frame on Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across the Florida
peninsula through early next week as surface troughing gradually
sharpens over the southeastern states, creating a prevailing
offshore wind flow. Afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will likely push eastward across our local waters
each day, with daily strong storm potential. Daily afternoon into
evening south-southeasterly wind surges expected along the
nearshore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through this
weekend and into early next week.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Rip Current Risk will continue
through the upcoming weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet, as
a general southwest flow is expected, along with daily sea breeze
in the surf zone during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  89 /  30  70  30  80
SSI  75  88  75  88 /  40  60  40  60
JAX  73  92  72  89 /  50  70  50  80
SGJ  73  90  72  88 /  40  80  60  80
GNV  71  91  70  88 /  40  80  60  90
OCF  72  91  72  87 /  30  80  60  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$