Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
114 FXUS62 KJAX 021745 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 145 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Tornado Watch through 6 pm Today Portions of Northeast Florida - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches - Windy with Scattered Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday - Expansive Historic Drought continues for Most Areas && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible over portions of northeast Florida through this evening. - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. Thunderstorms will continue to move onshore from the Gulf across northeast Florida this afternoon. As they move through north central FL and the northeast FL coast south of St. Johns county where greater instability and shear is present, there will be potential for damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy downpours. Overall, convection should be through the region by early evening, with lingering showers afterwards through around 10pm near the northeast FL coast. Inland southeast Georgia saw beneficial rainfall this morning, totaling near 1-2 inches, with more light showers this afternoon. Currently, most of southeast GA has not risen above 60 degrees, but some cloud cover clearing will pave the way for a slight rise in temps this afternoon. Behind this frontal passage, low temperatures will dip into the 40s over inland southeast GA, and 50 elsewhere as much drier air begins to move into the area. Patchy fog is possible over portions of inland southeast Georgia early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Brief cool down on Sunday - Temperatures begin to warm up once again on Monday High pressure will settle in over the forecast area for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week, as the frontal boundary presses southward over the Florida peninsula, bringing dry weather, mostly clear skies, and onshore winds becoming breezier for coastal counties with the diurnal sea breeze. Cooler temperatures will be in place on Sunday with max temps rising into the mid to upper 70s and then warming into the lower to mid 80s by Monday. Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm from out of the upper 40s and lower 50s on Sunday into the mid to upper 50s for the beginning of the week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Dry and warm weather into midweek - Next chance for widespread rainfall around late week Potential for showers and storms will increase by the end of the week as high pressure over the region moves off to the east and convection developing ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest moves across the forecast area. High temperatures will peak into the 90s by midweek with temps dipping to be more near the seasonal average towards the latter part of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Thunderstorms are generally clear of most TAF sites, with some lingering VCTS and light rain lingering. SGJ will likely see impacts from storms through around 22-23Z. Low ceilings (MVFR to LIFR) are bouncing around all 6 sites, with conditions expected to improve a few hours after sunset. There is low potential for low ceilings early Sunday morning, but not enough to include in TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Low pressure developing along a frontal boundary situated along the northern Gulf coast will push across our local waters early this afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread our local waters during the late morning and afternoon hours, with strong to isolated severe storms possible through around sunset. Stronger storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and possibly a few waterspouts. Southwesterly winds will strengthen after sunrise, with speeds likely reaching Caution levels as winds shift to westerly and then northwesterly this afternoon. The front will shift south of our area tonight, with gusty northerly winds expected after midnight as lingering showers depart the northeast Florida waters. Breezy northeast winds are then expected on Sunday as high pressure builds into the southeastern states, with diminishing winds and seas expected by early Sunday evening. High pressure will shift offshore of the southeastern states early next week, allowing for prevailing southeasterly winds. Breezy conditions are likely on Wednesday afternoon well in advance of a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states, with Caution level speeds possible through Thursday as winds shift to southerly and then southwesterly. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany this next frontal passage on Thursday afternoon and evening. Rip Currents: A long period east-northeasterly swell will be slow to fade today, keeping a moderate risk in place at all area beaches. Breezy north- northeasterly winds and building surf on Sunday will create a higher end moderate risk, with a high risk possible at the northeast FL beaches. Persistent onshore winds early next week will keep a higher end moderate risk in place at area beaches, with a high risk possible towards midweek at the northeast FL beaches as southeasterly winds strengthen. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Areas Of High Dispersions Tuesday And Wednesday - High Nighttime Dispersion Along The Coast Saturday Night Sunday, conditions begin to dry out behind the front, potentially bringing elevated fire danger conditions over inland locations. Generally drier conditions and lighter winds will then be expected for the beginning of the next work week, with minRH near critical for inland parts of the region through mid-week. Elevated mixing heights by Tuesday and through midweek will bring the chance for areas of high dispersions across inland locations. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog possible over inland southeast GA Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 48 76 49 / 100 10 0 0 SSI 69 54 72 60 / 100 20 0 0 JAX 74 52 77 53 / 90 20 0 0 SGJ 81 57 74 59 / 80 40 0 0 GNV 79 53 81 52 / 90 20 0 0 OCF 84 56 81 54 / 90 30 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$