594
FXUS62 KJAX 222322
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
722 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A mostly dry westerly steering flow is expected in the near term
through Friday. A few light showers will be possible across inland
NE FL to the south of Gainesville as this flow pushes some mid
level moisture into the region, otherwise abundant high clouds
this afternoon and evening will exit the region to the SE later
tonight as clear skies develop. The drier airmass and clearing
skies will support low temps in the lower 60s inland areas, with
upper 60s/near 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Not much fog expected
in the drier airmass except for some very patchy/shallow fog
possible over inland areas just before sunrise Friday morning.
Drier airmass will support mostly sunny skies on Friday with the
westerly steering flow bringing a return to above normal temps
with highs in the lower to middle 90s inland, while an East Coast
sea breeze will press inland to the I-95/US-17 corridors with
highs in the upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast. Not
enough moisture to support any convection along the East Coast sea
breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the south and
southwest by the end of the weekend as high pressure to the north
moves off into the Atlantic with high pressure ridging extending
in from out of the east shifting its way northward by Sunday.
Chances for diurnal convection will increase by the end of the
weekend as PWAT values over northeast Florida rises to 2 inches
and higher. High temperatures will reach up into the lower to mid
90s this weekend with overnight low temperatures dropping down
into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s
for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Heat index values
will reach values of over 100 degrees for portions of northeast
Florida on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Convection is expected to become more widespread by midweek as a
frontal boundary presses down from out of the north and northwest
as a result of an upper level low situated to the north over the
Great Lakes area. Weak upper level shortwaves moving across the
region during the latter part of this period will act to enhance
the development of showers and storms over the forecast area.
Temperatures will remain above the seasonal average through the
period with temps beginning to drop to near normal values after
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR will prevail. High clouds will stay over northeast FL this
evening but clear out later tonight. Some MVFR vsby possible
07z-11z at VQQ. Sfc winds will become light and variable tonight,
and then will we will see a light north then northeast and east
wind up to 5-10 kt in the afternoon for the coastal TAFs. GNV winds
look to become light westerly Friday aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Secondary dry frontal boundary pushes southward into the local
waters tonight and stalls on Friday. Weak high pressure center
builds north of the waters on Saturday, then moves east of the
waters Sunday into early next week. Daily sea breezes are expected
along the Atlantic Coast. Small craft advisory conditions are not
expected through the holiday weekend.

Rip Currents: Low Risk to marginally Moderate Risk of Rips through
the holiday weekend as weak pressure pattern sets up with daily
sea breeze development along the Atlantic Coast which will keep
surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  91  61  91 /   0  10   0  10
SSI  70  85  70  86 /   0  10   0  10
JAX  64  93  64  94 /   0  10   0  10
SGJ  67  90  69  90 /  10  10   0  10
GNV  63  96  63  97 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  64  96  64  96 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$