130
FXUS62 KJAX 050109
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
909 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Light to moderate rain showers over Marion county will slowly
wind down by 10PM from earlier convection that traveled from the
FL/GA state line southward along and west of highway 301 into
north central FL. A few coastal showers will drift near coastal St
Johns and Flagler counties over the next few hours, but otherwise
rain activity should end for the evening. Some localized patchy
fog is expected late tonight over the Jacksonville vicinity due to
a combination of post fireworks lingering smoke near the surface and
high dewpoints in the mid 70s. Otherwise low stratus/lowered
stratocumulus clouds will drift inland during the pre-dawn hours
for most inland areas. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s inland
and mid to upper 70s along the coast and downtown Jacksonville.

Saturday, Tropical Depression 3 will lift northward slowly towards the
SC coast with minimal impacts to our area. Winds around the system`s
circulation will be from the northeast 10-15 mph across SE GA and
and along the NE FL coast and breezier 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph at
the SE GA coast. Scattered coastal showers will move onshore Saturday
by late morning with T`storms increasing in coverage in the afternoon,
moving from northeast to southwest generally over the eastern half of
SE GA and into NE FL. Main impacts will be locally heavy downpours
which may contribute to minor flooding in low lying and urban areas.
Gusty winds up to 50 mph are also possible in isolated stronger
T`storm activity where the Atlantic seabreeze and outflow
boundaries collide, and where storm mergers occur. Highs will be
in the mid 80s along the coast due to the onshore NE winds, and
upper 80s over the rest of the area.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Generally partly cloudy skies at this time with isolated to
scattered convection firing along the convergence lines/Atlantic
sea breeze near and just west of I-95. Winds are mainly north-
northeasterly except for a bit more variable flow over north
central FL where a weak trough is located. A broad weak low
pressure is located some 150 miles east of Jax per satellite
imagery and a weak trough extends west-southwest into north
central FL. Models show the low pressure area meandering or
drifting slowly northwest or north through tonight, while the
trough axis across north central FL pushes a bit further south.

Radar shows a batch of showers and storms from inland northeast
FL into southeast GA. Expect the showers and storms will continue
to blossom and push southward and increase in coverage and intensity.
Heaviest concentration of rainfall will be near and south of I-10
and west of I-95 by late afternoon and early evening. Showers and
storms should wind down by mid to late evening hours, except for
inland northeast FL near the I-75 corridor. We still can`t rule
out isolated convection elsewhere in the evening hours. Lows
tonight very mild in the mid/upper 70s. Some patchy fog is possible
late tonight and probably less than what we had this morning, but
areas of stratus may be prevalent again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A weak low pressure center, perhaps a tropical or subtropical
depression, located in the Atlantic off the NE FL and GA coasts on
Saturday will gradually drift north-northwestward toward the
Carolinas Saturday night into Sunday. With the low to the east on
Saturday, flow will generally be NNE with waves of showers and
storms moving through the area from the northeast to the southwest
through the day. Being on the "drier" side of the low, drier
northerly air advecting into SE GA could limit convection to
scattered whereas deep tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) remains
over NE FL. Localized flooding risk will continue on Saturday over
NE FL mainly south of I-10. Moisture wraps around the low and
filters back into SE GA Saturday night into Sunday as the low
lifts northward. The steering flow shifts to WSW on Sunday sending
scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area.
Uncertainty remains with how strong the low could become before
making landfall but it`s likely to remain either at or below
depression level. Main local impacts will be limited to the
coastal waters and along the coast with elevated surf/rip currents
for the weekend. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to
low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Low over the Carolinas weakens and opens up into a trough on Monday
as high pressure ridging builds back into the region for early
next week. The pattern returns to being mainly diurnal sea breeze
driven with showers and storms developing each day along the
inland moving sea breezes. Returning subsidence will slightly
lower convective coverage. Generally WSW flow will lead to the
Gulf sea breeze being dominant and pinning the Atlantic sea breeze
to the coast. More sunshine and less storm coverage will cause
temps soar into the low to upper 90s into mid-week next week. Peak
heat indices could rise to around 105 F and potentially reach
Heat Advisory criteria (108 F).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The 00Z TAF will feature MVFR ceilings 1.5 to 2.5 kft brushing
onshore to the coastal terminals, moving inland across the duval
terminals now through 04Z. Breezy winds continue around 10 knots
at SSI, SGJ, and CRG while lessening to 5-8 knots inland from the
north northeast.

As Tropical Depression 3 pinwheels moves slowly northward well east
of the area terminals tonight, light northerly to northeasterly
winds 4-8 knots will continue late tonight and remain 6-10 knots
along the coast with low ceilings developing away from the coast
after 06Z to low MVFR levels 1.0 to 1.5 kft, chances to low to
include IFR restriction at GNV/VQQ this update. The low ceilings
will lift as breezy onshore north to northeasterly winds around
the periphery of the tropical system mix down winds 10 to 15 knots
near the coast and around 8-10 knots inland. Scattered showers
will develop after late morning with the best window for highest
Thunderstorm chances 18-22Z for the coastal TAF sites and 20-24Z
inland where MVFR restrictions from ceilings and visibility may
occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

An area of weak low pressure will likely develop off the southeast
U.S. coast over the weekend. The low pressure system is expected to
meander well offshore while drifting northward Sunday and Monday.
Winds and seas could reach Small Craft Advisory conditions mainly
across Georgia waters this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is
monitoring this system to see if the low will become a tropical or
subtropical depression. As the low departs Monday into Tuesday, a
weak trough will linger across Georgia as high pressure builds
northward across the Florida peninsula.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk of rip currents currently
but will be increasing gradually through the weekend as the northeasterly
winds increase and surf builds. Probably still have longshore currents
flowing northward from the past wind flow regime, but is forecast
to switch to flowing southward by Saturday as the northerly flow
persists now for at least 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  72  90 /  10  50  30  60
SSI  77  84  75  88 /  20  60  40  50
JAX  74  89  72  91 /  20  70  30  70
SGJ  74  87  73  89 /  20  60  30  60
GNV  72  88  72  91 /  30  80  30  70
OCF  74  88  73  88 /  60  80  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470.

&&

$$