976
FXUS62 KJAX 050656
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
156 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Fog and low stratus ceilings will overspread GNV after 09Z, with
LIFR conditions expected to then prevail through around 15Z.
Periods of MVFR conditions will otherwise be possible overnight at
VQQ, CRG, and SSI, with VFR conditions expected through around
sunrise at JAX and SGJ. Low stratus and possibly dense fog
developing overnight across inland southeast GA is expected to
push southeastward towards the SSI terminal after sunrise, with
IFR to LIFR conditions expected during the mid and late morning
hours. Low stratus ceilings will also approach the Duval County
terminals from the northwest after sunrise, with confidence high
enough to indicate IFR conditions at VQQ for a brief period during
the mid to late morning hours. Confidence in IFR impacts was too
low to include anything other than scattered ceilings at JAX and
CRG during the mid to late morning hours. Otherwise, brief period
of MVFR visibilities will be possible due to radiation fog at SGJ
and the Duval County terminals just after sunrise. VFR conditions
are then expected to prevail at the regional terminals by 17Z.
Dense sea fog may begin to spread onshore along the northeast FL
coast towards sunset, but confidence in impacts at SGJ remains too
low to indicate any sub-VFR conditions at this time. Light
westerly surface winds, sustained around 5 knots or less, will
continue overnight at SSI, while generally calm winds prevail
elsewhere through sunrise. Westerly surface winds will develop at
the regional terminals shortly after sunrise, with sustained
speeds increasing to around 5 knots by noon as winds shift to
west-southwesterly. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop
during the early afternoon hours, with surface winds shifting to
easterly at SGJ by 18Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots,
while southerly winds of 5-10 knots will prevail after 18Z at SSI.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Dense fog is expected to spread onshore along the immediate Atlantic
coast within the next few hours south of Jacksonville, which will
persist through the morning. Around midnight a second area of
concern for dense fog will pop up along I-75, which will also
linger through the night and begin to dissipate after sunrise. Two
separate Dense Fog Advisories have been issued for those areas
with higher confidence, and may need to be expanded further inland
across portions of northeast Florida later tonight (north central
Florida and the rest of St. Johns and Flagler counties
especially).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 205 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Beautiful weather continues as high pressure ridging envelops the
area. High pressure will create calm to light winds and partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies. Daytime highs will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The development of dense fog will be possible over inland and
coastal areas overnight and into the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue into the weekend
with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Timing for a cold
frontal boundary making its way into the area from the northwest,
seems to be around the Sunday night to Monday afternoon timeframe
and is anticipated to stall over the area at the beginning of next
week. No matter the timing, this frontal boundary will increase
chances for precipitation beginning in southeast Georgia and will
stretch south into northeast Florida. Temperatures will decrease
behind the cold front bringing daytime high temperatures down to
near normal next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Fog will be the main issue through Wednesday morning and will plan
to hoist a dense fog advisory for the marine waters from
Fernandina To Flagler Beach and out to 20 nm. Additional
advisories may be needed. Generally Light winds and low seas
expected through the rest of the week with high pressure ridge in
control over the forecast region. A weak front will approach Wed
aftn and evening, but stall near or just north of the Altamaha
River, and then lift back north as a warm front. Another stronger
cold front will approach from the north late in the weekend, and
possibly push into the forecast waters on Monday. The main impact
weather concern next couple of days is the sea fog that is likely
to form later tonight and linger Wednesday morning. Another chance
of fog again Wed night/early Thursday.

Rip Currents: Weak easterly swells of 1-2 ft at about 8-10
seconds will keep a low-end moderate risk of rip currents in
place through Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 425 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites through
Sunday:

                Feb 4    Feb 5    Feb 6    Feb 7    Feb 8    Feb 9
               ----------------------------------------------------
Jacksonville   84/2022  87/1957  85/2020  82/2019  85/2019  88/1937
Gainesville    87/1957  86/1957  88/1957  86/1957  86/2019  86/1939
Alma, GA       80/1957  85/1957  82/2008  82/2019  84/1957  83/1957
Craig Airport  84/2022  83/2008  85/2008  81/2018  82/1999  83/1982

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  56  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  55  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  81  58  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  76  58  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  81  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  83  58  82  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-035-
     133-136-138-220-236-240-340-422-522.

GA...None.
AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ452-454.

&&

$$