798
FXUS62 KJAX 192329
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
729 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Tonight: Breezy SE winds at 15G25 mph this afternoon will slowly
fade through the evening hours under clear skies as high pressure
ridge axis remains in place just north of the region at the
surface. Aloft there will be some increase in moisture on the back
side of mid level ridge and expect an increase in high clouds
after midnight with partly cloudy skies developing towards
morning, which should make for a nice sunrise for Sunday morning.
This cloud cover should keep overnight temps just a touch milder
with upper 50s to near 60F expected over inland areas and lower to
middle 60s along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin.
While some patchy fog will be possible again towards sunrise
Sunday morning over inland areas, the slight increase in cloud
cover should prevent much in the way of any dense fog formation.

Sunday: Ridge axis will remain in place at the surface, while
aloft there will still be some high clouds from time to time, but
overall should be thin enough to allow for partly to mostly sunny
skies and continued above normal highs well into the upper 80s
over inland areas, with a few near 90F readings possible across
inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor. Meanwhile closer to the
Atlantic Coast, breezy SE flow at 15G25 mph will develop once
again with highs around 80F at the beaches and into the lower to
middle 80s along the I-95 corridor. Despite the onshore/SE flow,
rainfall chances will remain less than 10 percent as the drier
airmass aloft will mix out any isolated showers that develop over
the Atlantic Coastal waters that would likely diminish before they
reach the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A low pressure system will begin to push into the Great Lakes
region on Sunday evening. An associated cold front, extending
southward of this low pressure system, will steadily move eastward
across the southeastern CONUS during the first half of the
upcoming week. By Tuesday night, the front will begin to move over
the Appalachian mountains and stall to north of SE GA. As the
cold front moves eastward, the ridge of high pressure will push
off towards the western Atlantic, eventually sitting north of the
Bahamas.

Dry conditions will remain in place across the area as high
pressure will remain mostly in place. Southeasterly onshore flow
will continue during the first half of the upcoming week as the
high pressure shifts over the western Atlantic. Winds along the
coast will range in the 10-15 mph range on Monday and Tuesday.
Monday, Highs for coastal locations will be in the lower 80s,
compared to inland areas with highs mainly in the upper 80s, with
some locations reaching into the 90s. By Tuesday, more inland
locations will look to reach the 90F mark as onshore flow will
help to keep coastal locations the mid to upper 80s. Overnight
lows during this period will remain in the lower 60s for inland
locations and the mid to upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

By midweek, the frontal boundary is expected to remain stalled
north of the local area as the high pressure over the western
Atlantic begins to shift northeastward. With this pattern in place
during the back half of the upcoming week, a south-southwesterly
flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf. Question still remains
if there will be enough moisture overhead to see the development
of any showers or storms. Current guidance suggests relatively
higher PWATs, ~1.25" to 1.30", for locations north of the I-10
corridor into SE GA. For those showers/storms that do develop will
likely occur along the mergers of the Gulf and Atlantic sea
breezes as a weak southerly flow will allow for both seabreezes to
make their way inland.

Continuing the trend from Tuesday, most inland locations will
likely see highs past the 90F mark and near the mid 90s
potentially, leaving the door open for some daily record highs
values through the end of the week. For locations along the
coastal and towards the St. Johns River will be relatively cooler
as the continuation of the southeasterly onshore flow will keep
highs in the 80s. Lows will rise slowly from the low 60s inland
into the mid 60s and to the upper 60s at the coast and along the
St Johns river.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all sites, except
for VQQs early morning MVFR clearing by 11z. Winds out of the
southeast will begin to slow a bit after sunset, with a few clouds
sticking around over night at 2,500 ft for SSI and SGJ. Clouds
will increase slightly in coverage along the coast in the late
morning but should clear by the afternoon to clear skies. Winds
will be gusty out of the southeast again tomorrow with winds
around 10-15kts gusting to 15-20kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

No major changes expected as high pressure ridge axis will remain
over or just to the North of the local waters through the
upcoming week. A frontal boundary will approach from the Northwest
during the middle of the upcoming week, but is expected to stall
over the SE US states and very little impact is expected across
the local waters. Daily sea breezes are expected around 15 knots
across the nearshore waters with a mainly SE direction expected
with some backing to the South during the overnight hours with
speeds generally in the 10-15 knot range and seas of 3-5 ft, and
while brief surges of winds to SCEC levels of 15-20 knots are
possible, overall the marine forecast will remain headline free
for the next 5 days.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High Risk of rip currents will continue
today and Sunday as breezy onshore/Southeast flow will keep
surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range, along with increased crowds at
the local beaches due to the above normal temps and Holiday
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

High pressure will remain over the area through the remainder of the
weekend, continuing the breezy southeasterly winds along the coast
on Sunday. Dry air remains overhead on Sunday, with inland min RH
values in the 30-35 range, some spots of under 30 in far inland
southeast Georgia, but higher min RH values expected along the coast.
By the start of the upcoming week, high pressure overhead will begin
to shift away from the area. With the high pressure shifting away,
coastal locations will continue to have light breezy southeasterly
winds, but winds towards inland locations will see a shift to become
southerly and light. Dry air will continue to remain over the area
into the following week, with min RH values remaining in the 30%
range for locations west of the I-95 corridor.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

     TUE             WED             THU             FRI

JAX 93 (1995) 92 (1970) 93 (1999) 92 (1958)

GNV94 (1968)92 (1970)94 (1999)93 (1896)

AMG92 (1970)94 (1968)93 (1999)91 (1958)

CRG89 (2002)89 (2020)92 (1999)91 (2006)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  66  78  68  81 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  60  85  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  82  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  58  89  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  59  91  62  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$