685
FXUS62 KJAX 051848
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...
...SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Early afternoon surface analysis depicts a warm front that extends
from central GA east-northeastward to coastal North Carolina. Weak
low pressure was situated along this boundary over the Carolinas.
Otherwise, high pressure (1025 millibars) was situated between
Bermuda and the NC Outer Banks. Aloft...troughing was progressing
across the FL panhandle, in between ridges that were centered over
Deep South Texas and the Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms that
initially developed over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley late this morning have shifted eastward along he U.S.
Highway 301 corridor in northeast FL and over coastal southeast GA
this afternoon, with a few storms pulsing and becoming strong as
they encounter the hot, humid, and unstable air mass in place
locally. Outside of thunderstorm activity, temperatures have
climbed to the 85-90 degree range, with dewpoints generally in the
lower 70s as of 18Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Convection will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
along the U.S. Highway 301 and I-95 corridors in northeast and
north central FL this afternoon. Outflow boundaries emanating
from this activity will encounter a pinned Atlantic sea breeze
boundary positioned just east of I-95, where latest SPC
mesoanalysis indicates that surface based CAPE values have
risen to the 2,000-2,500 j/kg range. Shallow troughing progressing
across our region will tend to shift convection eastward towards
coastal northeast FL as the afternoon progresses, with a few
storms pulsing and becoming strong. Wet microbursts potential
exists for locations along and east of I-95 in northeast FL,
potentially resulting in a few strong wind gusts in the 40-55 mph,
along with frequent lightning strikes. Brisk low level flow
should allow for fast storm motion, but unidirectional
southwesterly winds will set up linear bands that could result in
downpours "training" repeatedly across the same locations through
early evening, presenting a localized flood threat for urban and
normally flood prone locations.

Lingering troughing aloft over southeast GA tonight may keep
convection going through around midnight, with activity across
most of northeast and north central FL progressing offshore around
or shortly after sunset. Convective debris clouds will likely
also shift offshore during the overnight hours as deep-layered
flow veers to a more westerly direction. Low stratus clouds may
move across the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA during the
predawn and early morning hours. A seasonably warm and humid air
mass will keep lows in the 70-75 range tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Southwesterly flow will continue to dominant across the area
allowing for the Gulf breeze to move well inland and keep the
Atlantic breeze pinned along the coast through the weekend. As
gulf moisture continues to filter into the area, PWATs will range
from 1.75" to 2.0", which will help to increase the chances of
precipitation, 60% and above, across the majority of the local
area during the upcoming weekend. In addition to the increase
PWATs, diurnal heating will help to destabilize the local
environment and increase the chances of strong to severe storms to
develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday and Sunday along
the Gulf breeze. Locations in SE GA, particularly the Altamaha
River Basin, are expected to have the higher chances of severe
storms as shortwaves try to move into SE GA. At this time, the
Storm Prediction Center has a "Slight" risk of severe storms near
the Altamaha River basin for this potential and a Marginal risk
for the rest of SE GA on Saturday. On Sunday, while not in a
"Slight" risk at the moment, SPC is highlighting locations along
the Altamaha River basin and northern SE GA coastal locations with
a 15% chance for severe thunderstorm development. The main
thunderstorm hazards each day will be locally heavy rainfall,
especially where cell mergers occur, as well as gusty downburst
winds. Daytime highs will be in the low/mid 90s with heat indices
near 105 on Saturday. Overnight lows dip into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The wet weather pattern continues into the upcoming week as the
southwesterly flow continues to allow for gulf moisture to filter
into the area. The Gulf breeze will continue to move well inland
during the first half of the upcoming week as the Atlantic breeze
remains along the coast. Passing shortwaves along the northern
locations of SE GA will likely see higher potential for severe
storms. A shift in the southwesterly flow as the Bermuda High
looks to strengthen and stretch over the region near midweek, will
allow for the Atlantic breeze to move further inland. Highs will
continue in the lower/mid 90s as the westerly flow continues, but
cooler temperatures along the Atlantic coast will begin to develop
as the east coast breeze begins to make its way towards inland
locations by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

IFR visibilities are expected to prevail at SSI through around 20Z
as thunderstorms move from southwest to northeast across the
terminal. Brief wind gusts up to 30 knots will be possible with
this activity. A TEMPO group was added at GNV after 19Z for
briefly gusty winds and MVFR visibilities as showers and
thunderstorms cross the terminal later this afternoon. TEMPO
groups remain in place for the Duval County terminals and SGJ, but
confidence was high enough to indicate IFR visibilities during
heavier downpours later this afternoon through the early evening
hours. Convection may redevelop at the SSI terminal towards
sunset, and a PROB30 group was placed in the TAF through the
evening hours for MVFR conditions during heavier downpours. VFR
conditions should then prevail at the regional terminals after
midnight. There is a small probability for low stratus ceilings to
approach the GNV and VQQ terminals towards sunrise, but confidence
was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Southwesterly
surface winds will prevail outside of ongoing thunderstorm
activity, with speeds of 10-15 knots this afternoon that will
diminish this evening and then increase to around 10 knots by 13Z
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Weak low pressure situated along a warm front that is positioned
over the Carolinas will move northeastward, pushing off the North
Carolina Outer Banks by Friday night. Atlantic high pressure will
otherwise continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida
peninsula during the next several days. Southerly winds will
briefly surge to Caution levels offshore this evening, followed by
prevailing southwesterly winds from Friday through the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters
through the evening hours tonight. Stronger storms will be capable
of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes
and torrential downpours. Daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will push eastward across our region from Friday
through the weekend, mostly during the afternoon and evening
hours. Strong to severe storms will be possible this weekend and
early next week, mainly across the Georgia waters. Seas of 2 to 4
feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next
several days.

Rip Currents: A persistent southeasterly ocean swell will keep a
moderate rip current risk in place this afternoon at the northeast
FL beaches. Prevailing offshore winds should yield a low risk at
all area beaches from Friday through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Breezy southwesterly transport winds will yield fair daytime
dispersion values across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley, where showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
early this afternoon. This activity will spread eastward during
the mid and late afternoon hours, with good dispersion values
forecast before the arrival of these showers and thunderstorms for
coastal southeast GA, the rest of northeast FL and north central
FL. Surface and transport winds will shift to westerly for Friday
and Saturday, with good daytime dispersion values expected area-
wide as breezy transport speeds continue. Elevated mixing heights
are expected during the weekend and early next week, resulting in
possibly high daytime dispersion values at inland locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  91 /  50  60  10  50
SSI  75  89  75  91 /  40  60  20  50
JAX  73  93  72  94 /  20  50  10  60
SGJ  73  91  72  94 /  30  50  10  60
GNV  72  93  72  94 /  10  50   0  60
OCF  72  92  72  92 /  10  50   0  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$