744
FXUS62 KJAX 011636
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1236 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Hot and humid, west to southwest flow will continue through
Tonight ahead of approaching frontal boundary pushing through the
SE US states. Latest Hi-res model solutions still showing only
widely scattered showers and isolated storms across NE FL the rest
of this afternoon and evening, as the East Coast sea breeze front
remains pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast. Further North across
SE GA, a bit deeper moisture ahead of the frontal boundary with
PWATs closer to 2 inches will allow for more scattered storm
activity to develop this afternoon and evening, along with some
numerous showers and storms possible along the Altamaha/Ocmulgee
River Basins to the north of Waycross and Brunswick where some
stronger to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph
and heavy rainfall will be possible all the way through the
evening hours and into the early overnight hours as some of the
pre-frontal storms across North GA/Carolinas tracks into the SE GA
area overnight. Otherwise the above normal temps from this
afternoon will remain elevated as W-SW winds remain in the 5-10
mph range through tonight, as low temps only fall into the
mid/upper 70s over inland areas and around 80F along the Atlantic
Coastal areas, and this will prevent much in the way of any
significant fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A cold front will shift south across SE GA on Saturday, stalling
along the FL/GA state line and the I-10 corridor in NE FL on
Sunday. An increase in atmospheric moisture, PWATs from 2.25" to
2.5", ahead of the front will bring a wet weekend as waves of
showers and storms develop along the frontal boundary.

Saturday, most activity will be focused over SE GA locations
along the frontal boundary as showers and storms develop during
the afternoon hours. With a moisture rich air mass overhead, heavy
downpours are likely for any shower or storm that do develop,
increasing the risk for localized flooding. WPC is currently
highlighting locations along the I-10 corridor and northward
across SE GA under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for locations south of
the I-10 corridor. In addition to the heavy downpours, there will
also be potential for strong to severe storms to develop along
the frontal boundary during the afternoon hours. SPC currently has
locations north of the I-10 corridor and SE GA under a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, as storms will
likely begin to develop during peak diurnal heating.

By Sunday, the frontal boundary will begin to stall along the
FL/GA state line and the I-10 corridor in NE FL. Another day of
heavy rainfall is expected, which will continue the threat of
localized flooding, particularly for urban and flood prone
locations. WPC has most locations under a Marginal Risk, with
coastal SE GA under a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Rainfall
totals for the weekend are currently estimated to be highest for
locations along the I-10 corridor and across SE GA, with totals
ranging from 1.5" to 2", locally higher amounts around 2" to 4".

While the hot temperatures from the past week will begin to trend
closer towards "cooler" seasonal high temp normals, humid
conditions and warm temps will allow for heat indices to remain
near Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday for portions of NE FL.
Highs in the mid 90s for most locations, behind the front
(locations north of Waycross, GA), highs will be in the lower 90s.
By Sunday, temps will continue to trend downward as highs across
SE GA are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s behind the
front and highs across NE FL will be in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

The cold front will persist over the area during the start of the
upcoming week, but will begin to weaken late Tuesday as Atlantic
high pressure begins to build towards the FL peninsula. PWATs
around 2" will continue the threat of heavy downpours on Monday
and Tuesday but as high pressure builds in around midweek, a
typical daytime pattern of thunderstorm activity will begin to
develop for the local area. Highs during the early part of the
week will sit in the mid 80s over SE GA and the lower 90s over NE
FL as increased cloud cover and rounds of showers and storms will
help to keep temps near or below seasonal norms. By midweek, temps
in the 90s begin to spread area wide as the high pressure builds
in from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Not much change in the guidance and rainfall chances remain
generally below 30% at the NE FL terminals and will continue to
suggest VFR conds with just VCSH/VCTS through the early evening
hours around sunset (00-01Z), along with W-SW winds close to 10
knots. Similar chances at SSI through the afternoon hours,
although rainfall chances increase after sunset as pre-frontal
showers and storms could push as far south as SSI and will keep a
PROB30 group in the 02-08Z time frame for possible MVFR conds in
TSRA activity. Otherwise will start to suggest at least VCSH
towards the end of the TAF period (15-18Z) as rainfall chances
start to increase once again in diurnal heating, but will likely
keep VFR conds for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Offshore flow will persist this afternoon with southerly wind
surge this evening with cautionary wind speeds expected across the
waters for a few hours. An offshore flow continues Saturday as a
frontal boundary approaches from the north and eventually stalls
across the local waters Sunday and Monday. Numerous thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the stalled front and push into and
across the coastal waters Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Frequent
lightning, strong winds, and small hail will be possible with
strong or marginally severe storms, especially across the Georgia
waters Saturday evening. High pressure will wedge in from the
north as a coastal trough lingers offshore from Tuesday onward,
setting up a predominant onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are not expected through early next week.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate rip current risk through Saturday
with surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range. A more solid Moderate
risk of rips will develop later on Sunday into Monday as a more
onshore wind component pushes surf/breakers into the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites...

                     FRI 8/1   SAT 8/2

Jacksonville, FL     102/1999  101/1999
Gainesville, FL      100/1896  99/1999
Craig Airport, FL    101/1999  101/1999
Alma, GA (AMG)       100/1999  100/2006

Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites...

                     FRI 8/1   SAT 8/2

Jacksonville, FL     82/1873   78/1953
Gainesville, FL      77/1893   77/1896
Craig Airport, FL    79/1999   79/2004
Alma, GA (AMG)       77/1999   79/1999

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  92  72  85 /  50  90  80  90
SSI  79  91  76  87 /  60  80  80  90
JAX  77  96  74  91 /  30  80  70  90
SGJ  78  95  77  92 /  20  70  60  80
GNV  76  95  74  93 /  20  70  40  90
OCF  75  93  75  93 /  20  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$