335
FXUS62 KJAX 131345
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
945 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Locally Heavy Downpours this Morning for Coastal
  Southeast GA and Northeast FL.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Locally Heavy Downpours this Morning for Coastal
  Southeast GA and Northeast FL. Additional Rainfall Amounts Up
  to One Inch Possible.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues Today at All Area Beaches.

A broad surface low pressure center is slowly pivoting eastward
across the NE Gulf waters to the west coast of the FL peninsula
as a mid/upper level shortwave crawls east across southern GA
to the GA coast, beginning to be pushed by an amplifying
upstream trough centered over northern MI southward across the
Midwest states into the OH valley. Very high moisture levels
indicated by PWATs around 1.80 (noted from the evening 00Z Upper
Air Sounding) and isentropic lift from the the mid/upper trough
is producing very heavy rain showers with isolated T`storms
along the coast just north of Jacksonville to Kingsland, St
Marys, Cumberland Island, Jekyll Island to the Brunswick area
where pockets of up to 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen
overnight into early this morning.

Today, the mid/upper level trough will emerge into the Atlantic
coastal waters late this morning and exit to the east by this
afternoon. Another surface low will form near the southern NE FL
coastal waters and move east northeastward. Flow between the
low and weakening high pressure ridging from the Atlantic into
the Carolinas will bring breezy northeasterly winds 10-15 mph
gusting to 20-25 mph. Coastal convergent bands will begin to
wane late this morning and partial sunshine through lifting low
cloud cover will allow for isolated to widely scattered T`storms
as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland in the onshore
flow. The T`storms will be battling dry air above 700mb (10,000
ft) as some drier air wraps around the departing low and will
move south to southwest with locally heavy downpours, lightning
and wind gusts to 40 mph possible. Heaviest rainfall totals of
up to 1-3 inches expected through late morning with only spotty
totals of a tenth of an inch to a half inch where T`storms
develop this afternoon.

Highs today will be largely dictated by cloud cover with upper
70s over a majority of the area along and north of I-10 and
the low 80s southward into north central FL.

Tonight drier air and clearing skies expected as a dry cold
front approaches from the northwest. Lows will be in the upper
50s over inland SE GA and the low 60s over inland NE FL with
mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier conditions return behind a dry cold front.

- Warmer temperatures into the weekend.

Clearer skies settle over the area behind the passage of a dry
cold front on Thursday. Northwesterly winds will usher in
drier air into the region, bringing RHs values to near critical
levels for interior locations of SE GA on Thursday, with near
critical levels extending towards FL/GA state line on Friday.
With drier air in place, chances of showers or storms will be
limited through the the end of the week. With clearer skies on
Thursday, temperatures will gradually warm up heading into the
weekend. Daytime highs rise to the lower 80s across SE GA and
the mid/upper 80s across NE FL on Thursday. Clear to Partly
cloudy skies on Friday as highs continue to trend a bit higher
across the region, with a few locations possibly reaching into
the 90s along north central FL. By the evening hours, Lows will
dip down into the mid 50s for SE GA and the upper 50s to lower
60s across NE FL on Thursday night. A bit warmer overnight Lows
by Friday night, with most locations falling only into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

A period of dry conditions through the weekend and into next
week as high pressure settles over the eastern sea board. A
persistent onshore flow could bring a few showers/storms along
the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland, but not expecting
the same coverage as earlier in the week. Warmer temperatures
are expect this period with near normal temperatures during the
end of the week with temperatures in the 80s, with a few
locations in the 90s over north central FL. By the weekend,
temperatures will rise to above normal as most locations rise
above the 90F mark, with coastal locations in the 80s thanks to
the onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

IFR to low MVFR ceilings between 500 and 1,200 feet will
continue at the regional terminals through around 15Z.
Ceilings will gradually lift to MVFR levels of 1,500 - 3,000
feet after 16Z, followed by VFR conditions towards 00Z Thursday.
Periods of showers will be possible through around 23Z at the
regional terminals, but confidence in restrictions due to
briefly moderate to heavy showers is too low to indicate
anything other than vicinity coverage at this time. Confidence
was low enough to drop thunderstorm coverage from the regional
terminal TAFs for the 12Z cycle. Periods of IFR visibilities
will likely develop at VQQ after 06Z Thursday. Visibility
restrictions will be possible elsewhere towards the end of this
TAF period, but confidence was too low to indicate these
potential restrictions at this time. Northeasterly surface winds
sustained around 10 knots will continue at SSI through around
00Z, followed by winds shifting to northerly and then
northwesterly overnight, with speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots.
Northerly surface winds elsewhere sustained at 5-10 knots will
shift to northeasterly around 10 knots after 18Z, followed by
winds shifting to northerly and then westerly overnight, with
speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Frontal boundary will be south of the waters today as a wave of
low pressure moves into the coastal east central FL waters.
High pressure ridge axis extending from the Atlantic into the
Carolinas will weaken as the high departs east into the
Atlantic. Winds from the east today will decrease into the
afternoon and turn more northeasterly as the low moves east
northeastward into early this evening. Decreasing winds and seas
will end small craft advisory conditions nearshore this
afternoon and offshore by this evening. Numerous showers and
isolated T`storms over the waters will also diminish steadily
through the afternoon hours as the low exits to the east.

A dry cold front will approach the waters late tonight and exit
early Thursday morning with high pressure building in from the
northwest with breezy northwest winds nearing exercise caution
levels. The high will build to the north on Friday and then to
the east northeast this weekend with dry conditions and daily
seabreeze circulation increasing winds nearshore.

Rip Currents:

A high risk is in effect today for all area beaches for breezy
onshore winds and elevated surf heights of 4-6 feet at the
northeast FL beaches and 3-5 feet at the southeast GA beaches
this morning. Surf heights will diminish on Thursday, with a
moderate risk anticipated at the northeast FL beaches and
possibly a low risk at the southeast GA beaches as surf falls to
around 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Dispersions Area-Wide Thursday

- Near Critically Low Daytime Humidity Vales Thursday and Friday
  over Inland Southeast GA.

Northeast winds will continue into midweek as high pressure
begins to shift away from the area ahead of a dry cold front.
With the continuing onshore flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will
push in towards inland locations by this afternoon, with
scattered to numerous showers possible along the boundary. Winds
shift to become more northwesterly with the dry cold front
tonight. Drier air will limit any chances of showers or storms
through the upcoming weekend. Near critical daytime minRH values
will develop on Thursday and Friday afternoons for locations
across inland SE GA. Elevated mixing heights will also bring
high dispersions area-wide on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  59  80  54 /  30  10   0   0
SSI  75  64  84  63 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  77  62  86  57 /  60  10   0   0
SGJ  78  66  87  64 /  60  10   0   0
GNV  81  62  86  57 /  40  10   0   0
OCF  82  64  86  61 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ472-
     474.

&&

$$