229
FXUS62 KJAX 181818
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
218 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

High pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic will remain
across the NE FL/SE GA region over the next 24-36 hours. There is
a brief surge of low level moisture over the local Atlantic waters
producing isolated showers at this time that is moving towards the
coastal counties, but these should break up as they reach the
coast with only a few sprinkles possible and measurable rainfall
chances remain 10% or less through the period. Skies will remain
mostly clear through Saturday with above normal temps continuing
during the daytime with highs well into the 80s inland and around
80F along the Atlantic beachfront locations due to the breezy
Southeast winds at 15G25 mph during the daytime hours with lesser
winds expected at night under clear skies. Light winds over inland
areas will allow for min temps in the mid/upper 50s, along with
some patchy fog over inland areas around sunrise Saturday morning,
but widespread dense fog is not expected at this time. Lows a bit
milder in the lower 60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Warm and mostly dry conditions continue into next week as mid-
level ridging remains over the region. A progressive shortwave
over the southern Plains on Sunday will lift northeastward as it
drags a cold front toward the SE US early next week. The front is
expected to stall just north of the area by mid week. Continued
south- southwesterly flow will lead to a gradual increase in
moisture to the region which could produce a few showers/storms
along the Altamaha river basin near the frontal boundary and where
the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes merge mid week next week.
Strong subsidence aloft and a prolonged return flow will warm
temperatures to above seasonable into next week. Due to the
Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland each afternoon, highs will
range from the upper 70s/low 80s along the immediate coast to the
low 90s inland. Near record temperatures will be possible for
inland areas next week. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s
inland to the mid/upper 60s at the coast and along the St Johns
river.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conds will continue through the period except for a brief
potential for MVFR fog at VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame, and will
continue to leave out fog mention at GNV, due to fog chances
remaining at 20% or less at this time. Otherwise just a wind
forecast as SE winds this afternoon in the 11-14G17-21 knot range
will fade to 4-8 knots after sunset, then pick back up into the
11-13 knot range towards the end of the TAF period in the 15-17Z
time frame. Just a FEW/SCT fair weather Cu expect during the
daytime hours in the 3500-4000 ft range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

High pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic will be
anchored along or just north of the local waters will continue a
general Southeast flow through the weekend and into early next
week. The long range models attempt to bring a weak frontal
boundary into the SE US states by the middle of next week but it
appears to remain north of the local waters at this time. Brief
periods of SE to S winds around 15 knots will be possible this
forecast period, but overall not expecting any headlines.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate to borderline High risk as SE flow
remains elevated enough to build surf/breakers into the 2-4 ft
range, this will be combined with increased number of folks at
beach locations due to warm weather this holiday weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue into next week. Atlantic sea
breeze is expected to shift inland each afternoon. Low-level
moisture gradually increases this weekend in the generally
southeast flow. Very good dispersions anticipated each day this
weekend with elevated transport winds and mixing heights. Patchy
high daytime dispersions will be possible mainly for north-central
Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  66  78  66  79 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  60  84  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  81  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  58  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  57  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$