840
FXUS62 KJAX 060636
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
136 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Fog, Locally Dense, Each Morning through the Weekend

- High Risk for Rip Currents NE FL Today

- Record High Temperatures Possible Inland through Next Tuesday

- Thunderstorm chances for portions of the area Today, Sunday,

- Extreme Drought has Overspread our Entire Area

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today:

- Areas of dense fog possible early to mid morning, especially over
coastal southeast GA and coastal NE FL.

- Isolated T-storm possible late today inland areas.

Currently, late night isolated showers have ended across inland NE FL
and inland north central FL. Sea fog is beginning to develop along
the SE GA and NE FL coastal waters from Mayport northward. Local
dewpoints in the mid 60s and onshore light south to SE winds over
will support a renewal of areas to widespread dense fog early this
morning along nearshore waters through the early morning hours onto
US-17 corridor in SE GA and southward along the immediate NE FL
coast, which may drift into the I-95 corridor by sunrise. A Dense
Fog advisory may be warranted for these areas as visibility lowers
near a quarter mile as sunrise approaches.

Surface high pressure ridge axis will be over SE GA today with
prevailing southeasterly winds. The atlantic seabreeze will form
around midday and move onto the coast and through I-95 by the
early afternoon hours, then push well inland the remainder of
this afternoon. Very warm conditions as a low to mid level ridge
aloft maintains itself to the east between Bermuda and the FL
peninsula This feature will support southerly flow above surface
that will increase moisture levels to the 90th percentile for
early March (1.25-1.45 inches of Precipitable Water) over the
region.

The moisture coupled with low level convergence along the inland
moving seabreeze will create isolated showers along I-95, then
create scattered showers and isolated T`storms between US-17 and
I-75 with storm motions drifting to the north as they form. While
an strong storm cannot be ruled out, especially between highway
301 and I-75 over NE FL. Highs will reach the mid 80s inland
with a few spot reaching the upper 80s inland which may reach
near record high temperatures inland (see climate section) while
cooler at the coast only in the mid 70s due to the cooler
waters and lingering low stratus near the coast.

Tonight, sea fog/fog will develop again late tonight as a moist low
level airmass and light SE winds under partly cloudy skies trending
mostly clear well after sunset from leftover showers and storms
fading by 10PM. Lows will fall into the lower 60s near the coast and
the mid 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm chances SE GA and NE FL Sunday
-Fog potential each night, which may become dense

High pressure will be centered well to the east northeast of the
region Saturday. This pattern will continue the onshore flow from
the southeast. A few showers will be possible over NE FL in the
afternoon, due to diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions.

This high remains centered to the east northeast Saturday night into
Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest Sunday
afternoon. This front is not likely to pass through, as the high
pressure ridge holds through Sunday night. Once again there is a
chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday, due to
diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions.

Fog will be possible both Saturday night and Sunday night, which is
expected to move in from the ocean.

Afternoon highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 80s will be
common, except at the coast where mid to upper 70s is expected due
to the onshore flow across the relatively cooler coastal waters.

At this time the potential for strong to severe storms is low this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Greatest chance for thunderstorms this period is on Thursday
-Nightly fog potential continues

High pressure centered to the northeast will extend west across
forecast area throughout this period. A boundary will be stalled
north of the area for much of the period, then slide south into
forecast area Thursday. The chance of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be low through Wednesday, with those chances
increasing Thursday.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

The 06Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions before quickly
changing at SSI to LIFR/VLIFR as sea fog develops early this
morning. The seafog will move inland and south to include the Duval
county terminals over the next few hours and then onto SGJ with
prevailing LIFR ceilings with restrictions from 09-13Z for VLIFR
ceilings and fog. The window for IFR ceilings and MVFR fog at GNV
will wait until after 10Z as the fog takes time to spread inland.

Another day of southeasterly winds will increase to around 10 knots
this afternoon with fog lifting by 15Z, but low ceilings persisting
along the coast through much of the day at SSI and returning at
SGJ by 00Z. Scattered showers and isolated storms will also work
inland from JAX to GNV with the latter having VCTS noted after
19Z into 00Z. Winds from the southeast will turn easterly behind
the Atlantic seabreeze 8-10 knots and 5-8 knots inland after
the seabreeze passes in the afternoon, then winds settle to
around 5 knots towards 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...


Dense sea fog at times will lead to difficult navigation conditions
across the coastal waters through early to mid morning and
again late tonight. The fog will lift to stratus at times in the
afternoon, but prevailing visibilities will generally be low,
especially within about 20 to 30nm from the coast. Sea fog is
likely to continue through the weekend as warm, moist air is
pushed across the water by southeast and south winds. Otherwise,
surface high pressure will remain fairly stationary, near
Bermuda, through early next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy easterly winds near 10 kt, and swells of about
10 seconds from the east will create moderate to high risk of rip
currents. Surf to about 3-4 ft anticipated. A similar trend is
likely to continue through Saturday as well. An elevated rip current
risk will continue through the weekend and into early next week at
area beaches as persistent southeasterly winds prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Low Dispersions Along The Coast Today
- Areas Of High Dispersions Sunday
- Patchy High Dispersions Monday Through Thursday

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature on the map this
weekend into next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Nightly fog potential over the next
week. Thunderstorm chances, mainly in the afternoons Friday through
Monday, and again Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 5:
KGNV: 87/1997

March 6:
KGNV: 87/2023
KAMG: 86/1961

March 7:
KGNV: 88/2023
KAMG: 86/1956

March 8:
KJAX: 88/1945
KGNV: 88/1921
KAMG: 86/1974
KCRG: 86/1998

March 9:
KJAX: 88/2024
KGNV: 89/1907
KAMG: 88/1974

March 10:
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
KCRG: 86/2019


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7:
KGNV: 66/1935

March 8:
KGNV: 65/1973

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  62  85  61 /  30  20  10  10
SSI  73  61  73  61 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  84  61  84  61 /  30  10  10   0
SGJ  78  62  79  62 /  30  10  20  10
GNV  86  62  88  62 /  40  20  20  10
OCF  87  62  88  62 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452.

&&

$$