Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
459 FXUS62 KJAX 011129 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 729 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Patchy Inland Frost at Inland Locations Early this Morning - Small Craft Advisories Possible Monday through Tuesday - Minor Tidal Flooding Begins on Tuesday Along the Atlantic Coast - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches. High Risk possible Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 06Z Sunday. IFR to LIFR visibilities are then expected to develop at VQQ after 07Z. Northwesterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals early this morning will shift to northerly by 15Z as speeds increase to 5-10 knots, followed by winds shifting to northeasterly and then easterly this afternoon. Light northerly winds will otherwise develop at the inland terminals by 14Z, followed by winds shifting to northeasterly by 17Z as sustained speeds increase to 5-10 knots. Winds will shift to east-northeasterly at the inland terminals after 20Z, with speeds then decreasing after 23Z. && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 During this period, high pressure system over the Carolinas will shift off to the northeast while a frontal boundary moves into the southeast states. An inverted trough is also likely to develop off the coast later today with some increase in moisture noted in the guidance, but PWATs stay below 1 inch. Mean layer winds will transition from westerly to southwest as a mid/upper level trough, associated with the cold front, moves into the TN valley down to the central Gulf. Clear to mostly clear skies remain today, but should see some increase in mid to high clouds tonight. Could see a couple of showers later tonight offshore near the inverted trough, but dry and pleasant conditions prevail with high temperatures in the lower 70s inland about 70 deg or so at the coast. Lows tonight mostly in the 40s inland and 50s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 The weak cold front and a pre-frontal trough will move through the area Sunday and into Sunday night and may be accompanied by scattered showers, but overall moisture is quite limited. POPs continue to be advertised around 30 percent for now. Instability looks too weak to continue to mention a thunderstorm for this forecast package. Highs will generally be in the lower 70s Sunday. There will be a gradient in temperatures across area Sunday night, but not as significant as Saturday night, as winds will gradually shift from north to northwest overnight. Lows Sunday night will range from mid 40s inland to mid 50s coast. High pressure will build from the northwest Monday. Lingering troughing in the morning could result scattered showers, otherwise a drying trend is forecast to begin later on Monday. With developing, dry northwest flow a sunny afternoon is forecast Monday, but highs will run below normal due to cold advection. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 The high will build more toward the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. An area of low pressure over the western Atlantic and the high over the Carolinas may result in a pinched pressure gradient to produce gusty northerly winds Tuesday and partly into Wednesday. High pressure will build into portions of the area Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will average below normal Tuesday into Wednesday, then near or above for Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Fairly light winds expected to prevail through Sunday evening and then begin to transition to northwest to north by early Monday morning by 08z-12z after a cold front moves through the area waters. Based on guidance, there is a decent chance of small craft advisories required behind the front from Monday morning through at least Tuesday afternoon, especially for offshore waters. Winds remain breezy from the north or northeast on Tuesday evening and should be starting to ease by early Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. The high may remain just to the west of the area on Thursday resulting in light winds. Rip currents: A moderate risk of rip currents anticipated today and Sunday with buoys currently recording about 2 foot swells of about 11 seconds. This does not change much into Sunday. There are increased concerns for a high rip current risk Tuesday into Wednesday, especially northeast FL beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 The next perigean spring tide will occur next week, with the full moon occurring Wednesday. Nov 4-7th is the peak in predicted astronomical tides. Guidance shows the combination of the north- northeast winds and these astronomical tides will push coastal areas into minor flood levels, with total water levels peaking around 2 feet MHHW. Therefore, this coastal flooding concern will continue to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 42 70 46 / 0 0 10 30 SSI 69 55 71 53 / 0 0 10 30 JAX 73 50 75 52 / 0 0 10 30 SGJ 72 57 75 56 / 0 0 10 30 GNV 74 48 76 51 / 0 0 10 30 OCF 73 50 76 53 / 0 0 10 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$