671
FXUS62 KJAX 041920
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
220 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Along & North of Interstate 10
  on Fri & Fri Night.

- Periods of Heavy Rainfall Expected Across Southeast GA Sat &
  Sat Night.

- Periods of Heavy Rainfall Shift Southward Across Northeast FL
  Late Sat Night & Sunday. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-Wide.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas.

- Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon & Tues Nights.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Afternoon surface analysis depicts developing weak low pressure
(1014 millibars) situated along a frontal system near the northern
Gulf coast. Meanwhile, an arctic cold front was pushing
southeastward across New England and the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys,
with stronger high pressure (1033 millibars) building over the Upper
Midwest in the wake of this front. Aloft...fast zonal flow prevails
locally, as our region remains situated between ridging over Cuba
and the Bahamas and troughing that was being deflected eastward
across the Upper Midwest and the Plains states.

Weak shortwave energy embedded within the fast west-southwesterly
flow pattern across the Deep South was inducing strengthening
isentropic lift / overrunning across southeastern GA, where light
showers and sprinkles were quickly moving northeastward across
inland locations. Temperatures remain in the 40s at 18Z across
inland southeast GA, where thick mid and high altitude cloudiness
was locked in place. Temperatures remain in the 50s across coastal
southeast GA and along the Interstate 10 corridor, with breaks in
this cloud cover have allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s.
Fair skies prevail across most of north central FL, where
temperatures have climbed to the lower 70s as of 18Z. Dewpoints
ranged from the 40s for locations along and north of I-10 and 50-55
elsewhere.

Brisk west-southwesterly flow aloft will continue across our region
into the weekend as troughing continues to dig to the northwest of
our region and ridging prevails over the Bahamas and the Greater
Antilles. Shortwave energy embedded within this fast, mostly zonal
flow pattern locally will continue to push across southeast GA
through around midnight, assisting in strengthening the overrunning
/ isentropic lift pattern. Chances for measurable light rainfall
will gradually increase late this afternoon through this evening
across southeast GA, with chances for measurable rainfall extending
to northern portions of the Suwannee Valley.

Dry weather is expected elsewhere through tonight, with less cloud
cover over north central FL possibly allowing some patchy fog or low
cloud development towards sunrise. Low level flow will veer
overnight as weak low pressure glides eastward along the FL
panhandle coast, with this storm system`s warm front lifting towards
north central FL by sunrise on Friday. Developing warm air advection
will keep lows in the 50s across coastal southeast GA and all of
northeast and north central FL, with near steady temperatures in the
upper 40s expected for most of inland southeast GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Friday, mid/upper level WSW flow will be over the region downstream
of broad troughing between the intermountain west and the MS river
valley extending southwestward across the Rio Grande Valley into a
formerly cutoff low near the Baja peninsula while ridging aloft
remains southeast of the region over the southern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos. At the surface, a wavy frontal boundary will
extend eastward along the FL/GA state line with low pressure along
the FL panhandle Gulf coast. Through Friday night, the northern
portion of the trough will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and
OH Valley with a stream of shortwave energy traversing across the
deep south and the Gulf coast ahead of the broad troughing. This
will push the wave of low pressure ENE across the area in the
afternoon and offshore into the Atlantic waters Friday night with
rounds of heavier showers spreading across Southeast GA and the
northern Suwannee Valley. An embedded isolated T`storm is possible
through Friday night, but not expecting severe weather threats.

Highs Friday will be warm south of the front across NE FL with upper
70s to around 80 over north central FL/southern St Johns river
basin, but remain cool in the upper 50s to low 60s north of
Waycross. Lows on Saturday will start of around 50F over SE GA and
be milder over NE FL in the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s along
the coast and southward to Ocala.

Saturday, another shortwave trough impulse associated with northern
portion of the larger trough will move through the TN Valley and
help spur another wave of low pressure developing over southern GA
and moving eastward. Rounds of heavier showers will develop in the
afternoon and push into Northeast FL areas from the Suwannee Valley
by the mid to late afternoon and to the first coast around sunset.
An isolated T`storm is possible south of I-10, but instability will
be lacking to produce strong to severe Tstorms. Frontal boundary
will sink south into NE FL by Saturday night with light westerly
winds becoming northwesterly, then north to northeasterly behind the
front as it stalls near north central FL. Heavy showers will persist
overnight into early Sunday as the low moves over the area, then off
the coast with another low developing to the west.

Highs Saturday will be near normal along the I-10 corridor in the
upper 60s, above normal southward into north central FL in the mid
to upper 70s and below normal into SE GA with upper 50s north of
Waycross and low 60s along the coast.

Sunday, another, more vigorous shortwave with the northern portion
of the trough will phase with the southern portion and push eastward
from the southern/central plains across the MS valley towards the
southern and central Appalachians. This will bring additional
lift/instability over the region with final wave of low pressure
developing over the NE Gulf and pushing east across NE FL and into
the Atlantic waters by the mid to late afternoon. This will feature
new rounds of heavy rainfall spreading back across NE FL and
extending numerous showers back north into SE GA. Embedded isolated
T`storm activity will help produce heavier rainfall rates as PWATs
(Precipitable water levels) exceed the 90th percentile and near
daily max values around 1.80 inches. While much of this rain will be
beneficial, rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour may produce
isolated instances of flash flooding in low lying and poor drainage
areas such as within urban areas. Severe T`storm potential will be
very low given weak low level instability with storms more likely
elevated.

Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will be expected over SE GA
into the Suwannee Valley with 1-3 inches along the coast. There is
high end potential for greater than 6 inches of rainfall over
western portions of SE GA/northern Suwannee Valley through Sunday
night.

Highs Sunday stay below normal north of I-10 into 60-65F degree
range with upper 60s just south of I-10 into Jacksonville and warm
above normal into the low to mid 70s over southern zones.  Lows
Sunday will be similar to Saturday around 50F over SE GA and mid 50s
over inland NE FL to upper 50s to near 60F over the NE FL coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Monday, large trough will swing east of the eastern seaboard with
ridging briefly building across the MS valley with WNW flow over the
region. A cold and dry airmass will filter into the area as high
pressure over the Midwest builds eastward. Despite cloudy skies
turning mostly sunny skies by afternoon, brisk northerly to
northwest winds will keep highs below normal with upper 50s and
lower 60s over SE GA, and mid 60s for NE FL with upper 60s over
north central FL. Lows will fall Monday night to the mid 30s over
inland SE GA with potential for frost with low 40s over inland NE
FL/SE GA coast. Lows will warm towards the NE FL coast as the
northerly wind fetch catches warmer temperatures from the local
waters with low 50s along the NE FL coast.

Tuesday through Thursday, high pressure will settle over the region
with a light freeze and frost event inland Wednesday morning. Skies
will be mostly sunny with light west winds becoming southwesterly
Thursday under high cirrus aloft. Highs below normal on Tuesday
gradually warm each day towards normal values by Thursday. Another
cold front will approach Thursday with a few showers, but overall
not expecting much rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 00Z this evening. Light showers will approach the SSI terminal
from the west after 00Z, with confidence remaining high enough to
maintain a PROB30 group for periods of MVFR visibilities during
heavier showers from 01Z - 06Z Friday. Confidence in shower activity
approaching the Duval County terminals has waned, and we have
removed PROB30 groups at these terminals. MVFR visibilities may
develop during the overnight and predawn hours at VQQ and GNV, but
confidence was too low to indicate visibility restrictions at GNV at
this time. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail at SGJ, with mid
and high altitude cloud cover remaining in place throughout the TAF
period at all area terminals. Northerly surface winds sustained at 5-
10 knots early this afternoon will shift to northeasterly by late
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing after sunset. Surface
winds will shift to southerly during the predawn hours and then
south-southwesterly towards 14Z Friday, with speeds increasing to 10-
15 knots at the regional terminals by 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak low pressure organizing along the northern Gulf coast this
afternoon will lift a warm front northeastward across our local
waters on Friday, accompanied by showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm. Weak low pressure will move northeastward
across southeastern Georgia on Friday afternoon, with this
storm system`s cold front then crossing our local waters on
Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will
then develop along this front just south of the northeast
Florida waters on Saturday night, with widespread rainfall and a
few embedded thunderstorms likely across our local waters
through Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it moves
offshore on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in strengthening
north northwesterly winds as rainfall ends, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions possible from Monday through early Tuesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Friday
              NE FL Moderate Friday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light northwesterly to northerly winds surface and transport
winds 5- 10 mph will create poor dispersion values today across
the area as high pressure exits slowly to the east. Light
scattered showers will spread east over Southeast GA areas into
northern Suwannee Valley through tonight as a warm front lifts
northward into the area from the south. Multiple rounds of
rainfall are expected Friday through the rest of the weekend
ahead of an approaching cold front that will move through Sunday
night. The showers will be heaviest Friday into Friday night
over Southeast GA into the Suwannee Valley with the axis of
heavier showers moving into Northeast FL late Saturday into much
of Sunday before ending by Sunday Evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will be embedded with the heavier showers as well,
but no severe storms are expected.

Breezy winds from the south to southwest will prevail south of the
front over Northeast FL 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30, but low clouds
and low mixing heights will limit dispersions to fair to good range
while light winds/low clouds will create low daytime dispersions. As
the front sinks south of the FL/GA state line on Saturday, light
northerly winds 5-10 mph and cloud cover will promote low daytime
dispersions north of I-10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  61  49  59 /  50  90  70  90
SSI  54  70  52  63 /  20  60  50  70
JAX  54  79  56  69 /  10  30  30  60
SGJ  60  79  60  72 /  10  10  30  40
GNV  55  80  61  74 /  10  20  30  60
OCF  57  79  63  77 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$