948
FXUS62 KJAX 011737
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
137 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Moist Southwest flow ahead of approaching frontal boundary across
the SE US will continue to kick off scattered to numerous showers
and storms over inland areas early this afternoon that will track
towards the East-Northeast and merge with the East Coast sea
breeze late this afternoon which will only push into the I-95
corridor this afternoon. PWATs around 2 inches will lead to heavy
rainfall as the main threat from storms today, mainly across urban
areas, while some stronger storms will be possible with gusty
winds as the sea breeze fronts merger along the I-95 corridor late
this afternoon into the early evening hours. Convection is
expected to push into the Atlantic by sunset with just a few
isolated showers possible through the overnight hours in the moist
airmass. More organized showers/storms will develop in the low
level convergence over the NE Gulf/FL Big Bend region late tonight
and towards sunrise, some of which could push will likely push
into inland NE FL/I-75 corridor, usually in a weakening manner,
although still could see some heavy downpours at times. Min Temps
tonight will fall into the lower to middle 70s inland and in the
upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast/beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Atlantic high pressure ridging retreats as a weak front shifts
southward into the SE US on Wednesday before stalling over SE GA
by Thursday night. The moist airmass (PWATs 2+ in.) remains over
the region continuing the wet and stormy pattern. With SW flow,
convection will start in the NE Gulf around sunrise and shift
onshore into the I-75 corridor by mid-morning. With the dominant
Gulf coast sea breeze, the sea breeze merger will likely be along
the I-95 corridor each afternoon/evening. Stronger storms will be
mainly focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary
collisions. Due to the juicy airmass, storms could produce heavy
downpours that could lead to localized flooding, especially for
urban and poor drainage areas. Convection wanes in the evenings
with the loss of daytime heating and shifts offshore into the
Atlantic. Highs will be around seasonable in the upper 80s to low
90s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the FL/GA border into
the weekend, with diurnal showers and storms each day. Drier air
behind the front could potentially limit convection across SE GA
while the deep tropical moisture remains ahead of the front in NE
FL. Best chances for rain will be focused in NE FL along the
weakening frontal boundary and along the sea breezes. However, an
area of low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary this
weekend. Models are still in disagreement on where the low may
form which will greatly influence our rain chances for the
weekend, especially given the drier air to the north. NHC has
highlighted our area with a low (30%) chance of this low pressure
system gaining tropical or subtropical characteristics. We will
continue to monitor this system. Regardless if the low develops,
heavy rainfall and flooding remain the main hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Scattered to numerous showers have started to break out area-wide
with TEMPO for TSRA activity still on track this afternoon at all
TAF sites, mainly in the 18-22Z time frame, but possibly slightly
later at SGJ as the drier airmass aloft has kept rainfall to the
NW of the station as well. Southwest flow have increased to 10G15
knots at inland TAF sites, while becoming south at 12g18 knots at
SSI/SGJ/CRG this afternoon. Winds and rainfall chances start to
fade quickly around 00Z with just mid/high clouds expected through
the overnight hours as SW winds remain elevated to prevent any fog
formation, although some MVFR stratus is expected to develop
around sunrise in the 1500-2500 ft range and will trend in this
direction with the next TAF package, along with re-introducing
some VCSH by the 15-18Z time frame as well with the moist airmass
and diurnal heating towards the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula
through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the
southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing
south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing
speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will
stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday
weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the
latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical
low pressure development along this front late this week and into
the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Southerly winds will create long-shore currents
today and build surf to 2 to 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate
Risk continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as
offshore winds increase Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  71  92 /  40  70  30  50
SSI  76  88  75  89 /  30  80  50  60
JAX  73  91  73  91 /  20  80  50  80
SGJ  73  90  74  89 /  30  90  50  90
GNV  72  89  71  89 /  20  80  40  90
OCF  71  88  74  86 /  30  80  50  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$