849
FXUS62 KJAX 110001
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
701 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Small Craft Advisory Tonight through Thu Morning

- Inland Light Freeze & Widespread Frost Thu Night

- Dry Weather through the Weekend

&&

.UPDATE...

Made some adjustments to dewpoints to reflect obs trends, otherwise
forecast remains on track. A cold front will pass through the area
Tonight, with winds shifting to become northwesterly behind the
front. Overnight temps will be warmer than last night , but
will still see Lows in the upper 30s across SE GA and the 40s
across NE FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Afternoon surface analysis places an expansive area of high
pressure centered directly overhead northern Florida and southern
Georgia. After some morning fog, low-level weak boundary layer
mixing has supported clearing skies over the area. Available local
Doppler radar is not detecting any meteorological echoes.
Temperatures are generally in the Temperatures range from the
lower to mid 50s in our inland counties, to the near 60 along the
modestly warmed coastal counties. Overnight, high pressure will
continue to slowly slide eastward, supporting freshening
westerly breezes, but continued dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Another area of high pressure will build across the Gulf Coast,
then once again slide directly on top of the Jacksonville area by
late Thursday night or early Friday. Dry conditions will continue
for this period. As winds collapse, a round of radiational
cooling may support a window for frost or freeze potential late
Thursday night through early Friday, which we will closely
monitor. As the high slides offshore, southwesterly return flow
and weak warm advection will support moderating temperatures for
Friday Night, and thus the frost and freeze potential will erode.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

North Florida and South Georgia will be in a COL region by
Saturday, with light winds, moderating temperatures, and low rain
chances expected through at least Saturday night. Ensemble
numerical weather prediction guidance is in great agreement that
the persistent upper- level pattern of shortwave troughs pivoting
around a stagnant polar vortex parked over southern Canada north
of the Great Lakes will continue through next week. Closer to
home, this will drive another cold front through the area late
Sunday or Sunday night. Current meteorological reasoning suggests
this frontal passage will largely be dry, with upper-level forcing
for ascent displaced well to the north, and limited moisture to
work with.

In the wake of the front, winds will clock around to the north and
freshen, supporting another round of December cold advection for
the Jacksonville area. Temperatures will slowly moderate
throughout the week, as high pressure building in the wake of the
front slides eastward, eventually into the western North Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Southwest winds will shift to become northwesterly by 07Z/08Z after
the passage of a dry cold front. Otherwise, northwesterly winds
from 7 knots to 12 knots for most of the TAF period, may see
some gusty winds along the coast. There is potential for fog to
develop around 10Z/11Z for VQQ, left off for now.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly breezes will freshen over the area marine zones later this
evening, then continue through Thursday morning. High pressure
developing over the Gulf will build into the area tomorrow into
Friday and then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next
cold frontal passage. Strong high pressure building to the north of
our region in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong
northerly breezes Sunday night, slowly veering to the northeast on
Monday.

Rip Currents: Primarily moderate risk across the area waters
through Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly breezes will freshen tonight, with dispersion indices
also increasing in response. Minimum relative humidity values in
the afternoon hours will drip below 40% at times across
southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida, but will recover
nicely in the overnight hours, largely in part due to the light to
gentle breezes supporting good radiational cooling events.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  56  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  44  59  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  42  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  46  62  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  44  64  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  65  37  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-120-220-322-422-522.
GA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$