684
FXUS62 KJAX 050558
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
157 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through the Weekend

- Daily Heat Index near 105 through the Weekend

- Daily Thunderstorms. Severe Storm Risk Sunday. Localized Flood
Risk through Monday. Possible localized flooding in poor drainage or
urban locations

- Patchy Inland Late Night & Early Morning Fog

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights Through Tonight:

- Isolated/Widely Scattered Thunderstorms, Mainly Over Northeast FL

The area will be under the influence of a very weak pressure
gradient today, as ridging overhead weakens further as a frontal
boundary approaches the area from the north tonight. High pressure
centered to the east/southeast will result in a mainly west to
southwest flow though generally weak around the 5 mph range except
near the coast and St Johns River Basin area where it will be a bit
stronger with a developing sea breeze. This breeze is not expected
to make it much further west that about the I-95 corridor this
afternoon.

With PWATs being lower today (closer to "only" 2 inches") and a bit
of drier air aloft trying to filter into southeast GA, convective
coverage looks to be overall more scattered today, and mainly found
across northeast FL. The vertical profile and setup therefore does
not stand out regarding stronger t`storm potential, though as per
usual with sea breeze convection, isolated gusty downbursts and/or
minor flooding cannot be ruled out, especially where boundary
collisions occur. Light west/southwest flow will result in low 90s
being common across the area today, with some mid 90s possible
across inland GA where lower cloud/storm coverage will be.

Tonight, a few showers streaming off the Gulf in the southwest flow
could make it towards the I-75 corridor at times, with otherwise
daytime convection coming to an end by around the 10pm time frame.
Lows will bottom out in the mid 70s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period: (Sunday through Monday night)

- Localized Flooding Rain Threat

- Isolated Severe Storm Risk Southeast GA Late Sunday

A more dynamic period as a surface front edges southward across the
local area late Sunday into Sunday night, then lingers across
northeast FL Monday bringing more widespread rainfall and the risk
of strong to severe storms. Aloft, a deepening mid level trough
carves southward down the US Atlantic seaboard. The phasing of the
upper level trough over the surface front late Sunday into Sunday
night will bring the risk of a few late day and evening strong to
severe storms, moving from the northeast over the Carolinas toward
the south-southwest toward southeast GA and the FL-GA state line
through midnight Sunday evening.

The stronger upper level shear remains to the northeast of the
region, but high surface based instability combined with the cooler
mid level temps, steeping mid level lapse rates and increasing PVA
aloft will bring the risk of gusty downburst winds across southeast
GA Sunday evening through about midnight. At this time, severe storm
risk looks more limited across northeast Florida as the airmass will
have been `worked out` by more typical sea breeze convection earlier
in the day, with a dominant west coast sea breeze regime.

Monday, the surface front is expected to be lingering near the GA-FL
state-line or across northeast Florida as high pressure northeast of
the region begins to wedge southward across north GA. Aloft, the mid
level trough lingers. This pattern could lead to broad surface lows
forming near to just offshore of the local Atlantic coast for the
early part of next week within an inverted coastal trough. Waves of
gusty coastal showers and isolated storms will move onshore and
expand in coverage as they shift inland with daytime heating into
Monday afternoon toward the I-75 corridor into Monday evening.

Monday night, the ridge to the northeast expected to settle farther
southward, with strengthening NNE to ENE winds along the coast into
Tuesday morning and continuing coastal showers and isolated storms
overnight as the surface front is shunted a little farther south
toward north-central Florida.

The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 out
of 4) of localized flooding rainfall both Sunday and Monday across
the local area. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded to
a Slight Risk of severe storms for southeast GA near the Altamaha
River basin Sunday evening (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk
(level 1 out of 5) extending southward toward the Florida
Interstate 10 corridor.

Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s Sunday before
showers and storms ensue with heat index values topping out near 105
degF, just below local Heat Advisory criteria. Monday, cooler with
onshore easterly flow with highs in the 80s for most locations to
near 90 toward the I-75 corridor due to clouds cover and convection.
Lows will range in the 70s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: (Tuesday through Saturday)

- Breezy Onshore Winds Tuesday & Wednesday,

- Warm-Up Late Week

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

- Elevated Tidal Levels with Approach of Sept 11 New Moon

Breezy northeast to east winds Tuesday and Wednesday as the coastal
trough lingers over the adjacent coastal waters. This will bring
coastal showers and isolated storms onshore, with coverage expanding
inland each afternoon into the early evening across inland areas
with diurnal instability. Aloft, the upper level trough axis shifts
downstream and weakens with more stable conditions aloft favoring a
lower severe storm risk. Thursday into Friday the surface high
builds east then southeast of the region, with a return of westerly
steering flow across the local area and a more dominant west coast
sea breeze regime. Temperatures warm as highs rebound back into the
lower 90s, just above climo values. Friday into Saturday, extending
models are showing another front approaching from the north, but
differ on the timing and mid level synoptic features. At this time,
NBM consensus favors the front edging southward across the area late
Friday into Saturday, with a return of easterly flow by Saturday
with scattered showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Convection has come to an end tonight with low stratus and some
patchy fog the main concerns for the rest of the morning hours.
Tricky forecast regarding fog and low clouds this morning as flow
starts to shift more offshore throughout the day today, but
confidence is high enough for at least some TEMPO MVFR/IFR
restrictions at all terminals during the early morning hours.
Confidence is lowest at coastal terminals, i.e. SSI and SGJ.
Ceilings will lift by late morning, with less numerous convection
expected this afternoon and evening. Have left out any TS mention at
SSI at this time as expected best chances to be at northeast FL
airfields, though still more scattered in nature. The sea breeze is
also only expected to bring a wind shift to SSI and SGJ, and only be
around 10 knots a peak strength but predominantly just under that
magnitude. Any convection is expected to start dissipating after 00Z
with at least some chances for FG/low stratus again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak high pressure will remain in place through tonight before a
frontal boundary sinks south across area Sunday through Monday
night. High pressure will build to the northeast following the front
early next week with a coastal trough over the local waters.
A brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions is
possible mainly over the Georgia waters Tuesday. The trough weakens
mid- week as high pressure builds south of the region. Another front
approaches from the north early next weekend.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will remain moderate across
northeast FL beaches through the weekend with lingering long period
swells and a developing onshore flow each afternoon and evening. The
risk will be slightly lower at southeast GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Patchy Low Dispersions Inland Northeast Florida Monday

West to southwest winds this weekend will bring a more dominant west
coast sea breeze across the area. Morning showers and isolated
storms will begin to move inland form the Gulf, with rainfall
expanding in coverage into the afternoon and early evening across
inland areas toward the Atlantic coast where the east coast sea
breeze will be near the Interstate 95 corridor to the coast. There
is a risk of stronger to severe storms late Sunday into Sunday night
across southeast Georgia as a front moves into the area. The front
is expected to linger across northeast Florida Monday, which will
create low daytime dispersion, more cloudiness and bring elevated
rain chances through the day. Winds will transition to northeast
along and north of the front Monday.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm
activity. Patchy inland morning fog each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Coastal water levels begin to increase next week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds late
Monday through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, extended probabilistic
guidance keeps water levels below action stage late Tuesday through
Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St.
Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  75  95  73 /  20  10  70  80
SSI  91  77  93  76 /  20  20  60  80
JAX  91  75  93  74 /  40  20  50  60
SGJ  90  75  93  75 /  60  20  60  60
GNV  90  73  92  73 /  70  10  40  50
OCF  90  74  92  74 /  50  20  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$