447
FXUS62 KJAX 031843
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
243 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A weakening frontal boundary/trough settling near our CWA border
over interior southeast GA is allowing a fairly sharp gradient in
moisture aloft this afternoon, as PWATS are near 2 inches over
most of northeast FL and decreasing further north and west towards
the 1.25 to 1.5 inch mark towards the upper Suwannee River Basin.
Despite this, numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms
have still popped up area-wide with some of the added lift from
the weak frontal boundary, combined with the east coast sea
breeze quickly moving inland with the light mean layer flow.
Instability is its fairly usual elevated self with CAPE in the 3
to 4k range basis latest analysis. Temps aloft are fairly warm
however, with 500mb temps near the 75th to 90th percentile noted
on this morning`s sounding at JAX. Therefore, continue to expect
the main hazard of any convection today to be localized flooding
from heavy rainfall (especially over areas with the higher PWATs),
though certainly cannot rule out some gusts up to 40 to 50 mph in
some stronger storms, mainly with any cell mergers and/or some
more intense boundary collisions. High temps today will top out in
the upper 80s to low 90s, with many locations likely already
reaching their max temp for the day earlier.

The aforementioned boundary will drift a bit further southeastward
this evening and tonight, settling near about the I-10 corridor by
Friday Morning. A few showers cant be ruled out overnight with
the presence of the boundary, mainly from about I-10 southward and
towards the coast where there will be higher available moisture.
This stalled boundary will also set the stage for possible
tropical or subtropical development near area waters, though
development, if any, looks to occur after the near term period
(more on that below). Mild lows in the 70s will be common tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Independence Day, the frontal boundary will start to weaken as it
slowly pushes south further into the area with slightly drier air
filtering in behind it. The drier air will help reduce rain
chances over southeast Georgia, especially along the coast. Expect
scattered showers starting in the late morning increasing in
coverage and intensity as they make their way inland in the
afternoon. Highest chances for rain and storms will be over
northeast Florida around and west of the 301 corridor. Daytime
high temperatures will stay in the low 90s over inland southeast
Georgia with temperatures in the upper 80s along the coast.
Northeast Florida will see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight, rain and storms will linger along the coast and south
of Hwy-20 through the night with lows cooling into the low to mid
70s.

This weekend, weak low pressure will shift off the Atlantic coast
along the weakening frontal boundary draped across north central
Florida. The National Hurricane Center has a low (30%) chance of
the low developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by
Saturday. Weather in the area this weekend will be highly
dependent on where exactly the low develops but the formation of
the low off the Atlantic puts the area on the drier side of the
development. This means conditions will improve over the area if
the low develops further off the coast or to the north, helping to
reduce precip chances. If the low develops just off the coast,
tropical moisture could begin to get pulled in by the system and
increase chances for heavier rain along coastal areas. The main
concern if this happens will be a flash flood risk, especially in
areas along the coast that received heavy rain from the day before
or in already flood prone areas such as low lying urban areas and
poorly draining areas. High temperatures over the weekend will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Going into next week, uncertainty still exists as the possibility
of the low pressure forming along the weakening frontal boundary
may or may not become tropical in nature. The National Hurricane
Center has a 60% chance of cyclone formation within the next 7
days off the Atlantic coast. Regardless of development, expect
scattered rain with a chance of storms beginning in the morning,
increasing in coverage and intensity in the afternoon as
temperatures increase and sea-breezes converge. Daytime high
temperatures will be slightly above average with temperatures
expected to be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Cloud decks just above MVFR levels will continue to lift through
this afternoon, outside of any SHRA or TSRA in which TEMPO groups
have been included at all airfields accordingly. TEMPO gusts were
only included at up to 20 knots given trends and the overall
environment, though gusts up to 30 to 40 knots cannot be fully
ruled out in any stronger TSRA. Lower vsbys and/or stratus may
affect some or all sites Friday Morning, though only VQQ and GNV
have been included for MVFR restrictions at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A weakening frontal boundary over Georgia will continue shifting
southward into the local Georgia waters tonight. The boundary will
stall tonight into the holiday weekend bringing waves of showers and
thunderstorms. An area of weak low pressure will develop along the
frontal boundary and move over the coastal waters on Friday. The low
will linger over the coastal waters this weekend potentially
bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions before lifting northward by
early next week. NHC is currently monitoring this system to see if
the low will become a tropical or subtropical depression.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk is moderate at all beaches through
Independence Day as well as the holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  72  88 /  20  40  20  70
SSI  76  88  76  85 /  10  40  40  80
JAX  74  90  73  88 /  20  60  40  80
SGJ  74  87  74  86 /  30  70  50  80
GNV  72  91  71  89 /  40  80  30  80
OCF  73  89  73  88 /  40  80  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$