048
FXUS62 KJAX 221703
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1203 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The region will be between a trough to the northeast, and high
pressure building from the west northwest Today. The gradient
between these two features will be tight enough to produce
elevated winds which will become gusty with mixing later this
morning through the afternoon. Skies will be sunny through the
afternoon, but continued cold advection will keep temperatures
below normal. Highs today will be in the 55 to 65 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Troughing aloft will linger along the U.S. Eastern seaboard on
Saturday as a double barreled low pressure system pivots
slowly northward from coastal New England towards the Canadian
Maritime Region. This weather pattern will keep a dry
northwesterly flow pattern in place as surface ridging migrates
southeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley during the morning
hours towards the northern Gulf by sunset on Saturday. Plenty of
sunshine and a dry air mass will be offset by cool air advection
on the heels of a northwesterly breeze, keeping highs generally
in the 60-65 degree range area-wide on Saturday afternoon. These
values are about 4-8 degrees below late November climatology.

High pressure will then settle directly over our region during
the overnight hours on Saturday night, with this feature
remaining in place over our region through Sunday night. This
setup will allow for excellent radiational cooling across our
region, with lows expected to plummet to the mid to upper 30s
at most inland locations, ranging to the lower 40s along the
northeast FL coast. Patchy to areas of frost will are expected
to develop during the predawn and early morning hours on
Sunday, especially along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor as well
as southern portions of the Suwannee Valley.

Flow aloft will become zonal on Sunday and Sunday night as
troughing continues lifting northeastward across the Canadian
Maritime Region. Sunshine, light winds and a dry air mass will
allow highs to rebound to the upper 60s and lower 70s, which
is close to climatology. Another night of radiational cooling
will result in lows falling to the upper 30s and lower 40s at
inland locations by the predawn and early morning hours on
Monday, while a light southwesterly breeze overnight keeps
coastal lows in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Zonal flow aloft will continue locally through midweek as
shortwave energy migrates east-northeastward from the Plains
states on Monday morning across the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, then pushing across New England
on Wednesday. This feature will push a dry frontal boundary
across the southeastern states on Tuesday, with this boundary
likely stalling across our region towards midweek as support
aloft pivots away from our area. A dry air mass will linger
throughout our region, with plenty of sunshine boosting highs
above climatology, reaching the mid and upper 70s at inland
locations each day, with afternoon sea breezes likely keeping
coastal highs a few degrees cooler. Another night of
radiational cooling will allow lows to fall to the 45-50
degree range inland on Monday night, ranging to the 50-55
degree range at coastal locations. Lows will then gradually
increase as warm air advection develops, with 50s inland and
around 60s at coastal locations on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Another trough will amplify over the Great Lakes region by
Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with this feature pushing another
cold front into the southeastern states and also potentially
propelling a shortwave trough quickly eastward from the
southern Rockies on Thursday to the Tennessee Valley by Friday.
Low level southwesterly flow will begin to moisten the air
mass over our area, but only isolated shower activity is
currently projected across inland portions of southeast GA
by model blends from Thursday afternoon through Friday at
this time. Temperatures ahead of this approaching cold front
will warm to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thanksgiving Day,
with above normal warmth potentially continuing into Friday
for coastal southeast GA, northeast and north central FL.
Lows on Thursday night will remain above average, with 50s
inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic coast. Some cooling is
possible across inland portions of southeast GA by Friday as
the cold front progresses southeastward into our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions to prevail this period. Winds will continue to be
elevated and gusty this afternoon, but decrease around sunset. Light
west northwest winds are expected Tonight through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Small craft advisory conditions continue for all local waters
through tonight with occasional gusts to gale force over the outer
waters. Winds begin to relax into Saturday with Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions expected. Surface high pressure builds
over the local waters Sunday and extends a ridge axis across the
waters through mid-week next week with dry conditions and winds
and seas below marine headline criteria.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate rip current risk continues for
NE FL beaches today due to a lingering long-period easterly swell,
with a low risk for SE GA beaches. A low rip current risk is
expected for all local waters due to continued offshore flow
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Strong northwesterly transport winds will develop shortly after
sunrise this morning, with breezy surface winds expected area-wide
by the mid-morning hours. These breezy conditions will combine with
critically low relative humidity values this afternoon across north
central FL to create an elevated fire danger. Minimum humidity values
elsewhere across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia will fall to
around 30 percent, or just above critical thresholds. Good daytime
dispersion values are forecast throughout our region this afternoon.
Northwesterly transport winds will remain breezy on Saturday, but
minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above critical
thresholds. Lower mixing heights on Saturday will generally yield fair
daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift
to westerly on Sunday with diminishing speeds, resulting in poor
daytime dispersion values area-wide. A dry air mass will remain in
place, but humidity values are expected to remain above critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  61  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  41  62  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  38  63  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  63  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  36  63  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  36  64  39  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$