246
FXUS62 KJAX 251743
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
143 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Very Hot & Humid Weather Continues Today: Heat Index 106 -
  112. Heat Advisories Possible again Next Week for Portions of
  Our Area.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Storms Sat through
  Mon. Strong Storms, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Locally Heavy
  Downpours Possible.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Downpours Possible This Afternoon
  and Early Evening from I-95 to US Highway 301

- Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 7PM for Northeast FL and
  portions of Southeast GA

Higher PWATs have moved into the area as the front slowly sinks into
central Georgia, higher precipitation chances are expected today
compared to the past few days. Storms are forecast to increase in
coverage in the early afternoon, and beginning to dissipate after
sunset, although a few isolated storms may linger a few hours after.
Impressive DCAPE values are currently present over most of northeast
Florida and coastal southeast Georgia, any strong storm development
will pose a threat to wind guts of 40-60mph. Highest strong storm
chances today will be near US301 to I95 as northwest winds keep the
Atlantic sea breeze pretty close to the coast. Slower storm motion
and training storms will bring concern for localized flooding over
generally flood-prone areas.

Ahead of the storms, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper
90s generally south of Waycross, where a Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 7pm due to heat indices reaching 105-110 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Numerous Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Sunday, Drier for
Some Monday

- Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Downpours Possible Each Day

A cool front sagging southward throughout Sunday, stalling and
becoming diffuse by Monday, will be the primary feature affecting
our weather for Sunday and into Monday. PWATs of 2+ inches ahead of
the boundary combined with the frontal boundary and sea
breeze/outflow will result in numerous showers and t`storms.
Steering flow in the 10-15 knot range from the northwest will help
to limit flooding potential somewhat despite the abundance of
moisture, though localized slow moving cells and/or training could
result in some isolated flooding concerns. Outside of heavy
rainfall, temperatures/lapse rates aloft via forecast soundings are
not overly impressive, though some lingering pockets of drier air
aloft could result in an isolated strong to severe cell, especially
towards the I-95 corridor closer to the east coast sea breeze that
will be nearly pinned. High temps will remain above normal Sunday,
generally in the mid 90s with some readings in the upper 90s
possible. Currently forecast to remain just below any heat advisory
criteria, though issuance will be possible later this evening or
tonight depending on latest guidance and trends.

Monday, a swath of lower PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8 inches will make a
push southward along with slightly stronger subsidence aloft, and
therefore will limit coverage of convection to an extent, especially
the further north and west you go. The highest chances for
convection, especially stronger convection, will be generally
towards the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River Basin region in
northeast FL closer to the nearly pinned developing diurnal Atlantic
sea breeze. Similar setup expected regarding temperatures, as highs
will be generally in the mid 90s and currently forecast to be just
below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat Advisory Conditions Possible Across Much of Our Area
During the Early to Middle Portions of Next Week

- Drier for Most Tuesday, Higher Shower and Thunderstorm Coverage
Likely Wednesday/Thursday

Guidance continues to suggest at least Tuesday being a day with more
suppressed convection for many, which will likely allow temps to
rise into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area that may last
into Wednesday as well. Another frontal boundary looks to drop
southward on Wednesday and into Thursday with a modest amount of
upper level support as well, returning higher coverage of showers
and t`storms for Wednesday but especially Thursday and into Friday
before the front stalls almost directly over the area into the end
of the week. Guidance varies a fair amount regarding how far
southward the front makes it and therefore the amount of drier air
that intrudes into the region, though given that we are still well
into the swing of summertime, leaning towards a wetter more
unsettled solution for now with a front stalled further north.
Temperatures will drop closer to normal with the boundary/more
active convection for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Thunderstorms will develop across the area around 19-20Z, which will
likely affect area TAF sites. Restrictions and gusty winds up to 30
knots in and near afternoon storms 21-01Z can be expected. Storms
will diminish after 02Z with broken to overcast mid and high level
clouds through the end of the period with very light southwest winds.

&&

.MARINE...

A stationary frontal boundary extending from the Carolina coast
westward across the deep south will begin to drift south
towards the Georgia waters through Sunday, pushing the axis of
Atlantic high pressure southward. This change in the weather
pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow this weekend
and early next week, with scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening thunderstorms expected across our local waters each day.
A few stronger storms will be possible during the late
afternoon hours, with briefly strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours possible. Another
front will approach the waters next week with offshore southwest
winds increasing to near advisory levels by midweek.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is expected today
through the weekend at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches
due to onshore winds from the southeast this afternoon with surf
heights 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Values Inland Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms today will become more numerous
on Sunday as more moisture returns to the region. This will be
accompanied by a light flow from the west to northwest, except for a
sea breeze influence east of about the I-95 corridor. Very
efficient mixing will result in good dispersions during the
daytime through Sunday, with patchy high dispersions possible
over inland areas Sunday. Some drier air will push southward
into the area on Monday and into Tuesday as a
weakening/dissipating front moves towards the area, which will
limit rain potential on these days, especially over southeast
GA. A more active pattern looks to return by mid next week.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not
expected during the next several mornings. Seasonably hot and humid
conditions expected through next week, which will flirt with heat
advisory criteria at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  75  94  73 /  30  20  70  40
SSI  96  78  94  75 /  60  30  70  50
JAX  97  76  95  74 /  60  40  80  60
SGJ  95  77  93  75 /  30  30  70  40
GNV  96  76  95  75 /  50  30  70  40
OCF  96  77  95  75 /  40  20  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ152>154-162-
     163-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$