799
FXUS62 KJAX 220553
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Seasonably hot today. Peak Heat Index in the 102-106 degrees.

- Limited Thunderstorm Potential Until Higher Chances Return
  this Weekend

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Wednesday, lower risk Thursday


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights for Today:

- Mostly dry conditions with seasonably hot conditions

A Saharan Air Layer has delivered a substantial amount of dry air
into the mid levels tonight. This will mostly stay intact and erode
lingering moisture through sunrise and limit shower development
through today.

The lack of rain and dry airmass will allow for temperatures to soar
into the mid and upper 90s inland this afternoon. Southerly flow
will efficiently mix down dry air aloft, lowering dewpoints to the
upper 60s for inland areas this afternoon, keeping heat index in the
100-106 degree range (below Heat Advisory levels). Though Atlantic
moisture will be brought inland with the sea breeze, it will be
offset by the cooling effect of the onshore breeze and also
keep heat index from pushing to Heat Advisory levels.

While largely rain-free conditions are expected, there is a chance
that sufficient moisture will reach Marion and Putnam counties by
the late afternoon and that may be enough for a few showers or
an isolated t`storm to develop as the Gulf and Atlantic sea
breezes merge. Very isolated showers may continue to pop up
through 10 PM but subside by midnight, setting up tranquil
conditions and a cooler night compared to the last few as winds
trend calm allowing lows to reach the low 70s inland and
mid/upper 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Thunderstorms return Thursday
  Afternoon and Evening at Inland Locations.

- Seasonably Hot and Humid Weather Inland, Near Heat Advisory Along
  coastal counties

Thursday, ridging aloft extending ESE from the southern plains will
create weak low to mid level flow over the area. Weak surface
ridging will be over the NE Gulf and extend over the northern half
of the FL peninsula with very light winds in the morning and midday
hours before mostly sunny skies and the weak pressure pattern allows
the seabreeze circulation to bring the Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes
onshore, eventually merging near highway 301. Moisture levels will
be closer to near normal with a cold front slowly sinking south of
the TN valley into northern GA and expecting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms to form from the merging seabreezes.

Highs will extend into the mid to upper 90s with low 90s at the
coast and Suwannee Valley behind the Advancing seabreezes. Dewpoints
mixing out to the upper 60s to around 70 north of I-10 and low 70s
over inland NE FL will limit heat index values below heat advisory
levels, but higher dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s behind the
Atlantic seabreeze will elevate heat indices to 105-110 along the
coast and I-95 corridor.

Friday, ridging aloft will persist from the west as troughing over
the Mid Atlantic remains north of the region. This will keep the
frontal boundary stalled north of the area across central GA and the
Carolinas with weak ENE flow becoming more westerly late in the day.
Seabreezes pushing inland will lead to widely isolated storms along
highway 301 due to subsidence and a slight decrease in moisture
levels compared to Thursday (PWATS near 1.40-1.60) a little below
normal for late July. Light and variable winds will turn ESE behind
the Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph. Highs will match Thursday`s values
with similar expectation for near heat advisory values at the coast
and just below inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Increasing Chances for Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Late
  this Weekend and Early Next Week

- Potential Heat Advisory Conditions Late Week & Weekend

This weekend, a ribbon of shortwave energy between strong western
ridging centered near the 4 corners region and a trough over the Mid
Atlantic and NE states will dive ESE across southern Appalachians to
the Carolina coast. This will deepen the trough over the east coast
as the western ridge shifts eastward into the southern plains, and
will allow the previously stalled cold front to move south into SE
GA Saturday and then sink into NE FL Sunday. The front will stall
across the northern FL peninsula Monday and dissipate as it sinks
into central FL on Tuesday.

Increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms are expected due to
increasing moisture this weekend and lift along the front Sunday
into Tuesday as it moves slowly across the area. Light west to WSW
flow will become a bit breezier late this weekend as a low develops
along the front near or offshore the NC coast Sunday and lifts away
to the NE on Monday.

Highs during the period will be above normal in the mid to upper 90s
this weekend into early next week with mid 90s even to the beaches
due to West to SW low level flow. Heat index values will rise to
heat advisory levels this weekend 106-110 along the coast and near
heat advisory levels 104-108 inland due to dewpoints staying in the
mid to upper 70s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

While there could be spotty showers late in the day at KGNV
and/or KSGJ, chances are too low to include any mentions at
this time due to overwhelming dry air aloft.

VFR conditions are expected through the period with high clouds
and diurnal cumulus today. Winds will be southerly around 10
knots ahead of the sea breeze which will push in from the Gulf
and Atlantic this afternoon. For terminals along the I-95 and
along the coast, an east- southeasterly wind shift is expected
between 16z-22z with the Atlantic sea breeze while KGNV will
turn southwesterly with the Gulf sea breeze around 20z.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly breezes will continue at Exercise Caution levels through
the afternoon before easing overnight tonight as consolidated and
stacked high pressure builds over the region. With light flow in
place Thursday and Friday, the wind regime will be driven by the sea
breeze development. A weak cold front will approach from the north
this weekend and turn winds offshore with afternoon sea breeze
development likely for the nearshore waters. Offshore flow and the
nearby front will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorm
chances.

Rip Currents:

Longshore currents will persist through this afternoon but surf will
diminish to around 2-3 feet today. As sea breeze develops, Rip
Current Risk will increase to a Moderate Level this afternoon. Surf
heights continue to lower another foot by Thursday, leading to low-
end Moderate risk of rip current with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Inland Today

Tropical Storm Bertha will exit away from the region today across
the northern Gulf waters with breezy southerly winds 10-15 mph
gusting 20-25 mph. Atlantic seabreeze will move onshore and press to
US-17 through the mid afternoon as the Gulf seabreeze progresses to
highway 301 late this afternoon. Winds will shift southeasterly
behind the Atlantic seabreeze and southwesterly behind the Gulf
seabreeze. Dry conditions will prevail with only exception over the
Ocala National Forest where widely scattered thunderstorms will
develop along merging Gulf/Atlantic seabreezes. Dry air may enhance
a few downdrafts with any storms leading to gusty and erratic winds.
A frontal boundary will approach on Thursday with widely scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon hours and again Friday afternoon.
Increasing thunderstorm chances expected this weekend as the front
sinks slowly into the area.

Breezy surface and transport winds today along with high mixing
heights will create areas of high dispersions inland across the area
each day.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not
expected for the next several nights. No significant impacts
expected from Tropical Storm Bertha.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  74  95  75 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  93  80  93  80 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  96  76  96  76 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  95  76  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  95  74  95  74 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  95  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$