170
FXUS62 KJAX 031813
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(This afternoon, Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon...Large ridge of high pressure remains just north
of the local area and will continue the warm and breezy Southeast
to South flow at 15-20G25-30 mph across the area. A slow inland
moving East Coast sea breeze may kick off a brief shower along the
US 301 corridor late this afternoon into the early evening hours,
but otherwise expect mainly dry conditions with overall rainfall
chances at 20% or less. Max temps will still top out around 90F
over inland with near record values at local climate sites and
have already peaked in the lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic
Coast.

Tonight...Winds will once again be slow to diminish during the
evening hours, finally falling to 5-10 mph by the overnight hours
and this should allow for another night with some low stratus
cloud deck formation, and even some patchy fog in the 3 to 5 mile
visibility range by sunrise Friday Morning. Low temps still
expected to only drop into the upper 60s inland and lower 70s
along the Atlantic Coast.

Friday...Fairly close to a repeat performance of Thursday as the
warm and breezy Southeast to South flow continues with winds
increasing once again into the 15-20G25-30 mph range by the
afternoon hours. Not much change in Max temps expected as they are
still expected to remain close to near record levels around 90F
over inland areas and lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast.
Some slightly drier air aloft may rotate in from the SE aloft and
drop PWATs to around an inch or less and should continue to
suppress any isolated showers from forming along the East Coast
sea breeze as it moves inland and rainfall chances will remain
around 10% or less for the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday Night through Saturday night)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Winds continue out of the south to southeast as high pressure
ridging, under a ridge aloft, continues over the area bringing
unseasonably high temperatures. Winds out of the southeast will
allow the sea-breeze to make its way inland in the afternoon,
keeping temperatures a little cooler for coastal areas. High
daytime temperatures are going to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
over inland areas with temperatures in the low yo mid 80s closest
to the Atlantic coast. Overnight, temperatures will cool into the
mid to upper 60s over inland southeast Georgia and inland
northeast Florida. Wind coming in off the Atlantic will help keep
temperatures slightly warmer along the coast. Fog will be possible
overnight into the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Sunday continues the heat trend with daytime highs above average
but, temperatures are soon to drop back close to normal as a cold
front approaches the area from the northwest. This cold front is
going to start pushing rain with a chance of some storms into the
area as soon as Sunday night going into Monday. The Storm
Prediction Center currently has inland southeast Georgia under a
slight risk for severe storms for Sunday night but could make its
way across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida for Monday.
Showers will likely linger into Tuesday depending on front timing.
Temperatures will cool off behind the passing front to bring
temperatures down to near normal then below normal into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR CIGS have developed area-wide as S-SE winds increase to 13-15
knots with gusts of 20-23 knots through the evening hours (03z).
Models still showing a signal towards MVFR stratus deck developing
late tonight with at least SCT-BKN layer in the 1000-2500 ft range
by the 07-09Z time frame as S-SE winds diminish to 3-7 knots and
even some MVFR VSBYS are expected as well in the 3-5 mile range.
Improving conds from MVFR to VFR are expected from 13-16Z with
increase in S-SE winds once again to 10-13G15-20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Southeast flow around high pressure ridge through the end of the
week will average out in the 15-20 knot range with seas building
into the 4 to 6 feet range, so will place SCEC (Small Craft
Exercise Caution) headlines in the forecast this package. Flow
becomes south this weekend at similar speeds as the ridge axis
pushes further southward and more offshore into the Western
Atlantic, so SCEC headlines look likely to continue. Flow becomes
Southwest ahead of the next cold frontal boundary Sunday Night
into Monday and wind speeds are expected to exceed 20 knots and
SCA flags are expected to be raised by late Sunday and will
continue into Monday with the strong cold frontal passage. Winds
shift to the North and Northeast on Tuesday as high pressure
builds in Northwest of the region and at least SCEC headlines are
expected to continue.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rips will continue in the
southeast flow through Saturday. Surf/Breakers generally in the
2-4 ft range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A slight chance of seeing a little rain along I-75 late this
afternoon as sea-breezes converge today but, subsidence over the
area will limit any development for storms. Winds continue out of
the south to southeast into Saturday, allowing the Atlantic sea-
breeze to make its way inland each afternoon. Expect sustained
winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph inland today and
tomorrow with sustained winds around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30
mph along the coast as the sea-breeze makes its way in. Warming
temperatures with high transport winds will create patchy high
daytime dispersion over inland areas today with daytime
dispersions generally good at inland areas tomorrow and poor to
fair along the coast. High daytime dispersions are expected over
inland areas Saturday. MinRH will stay above critical values for
the forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites

      4/3      4/4      4/5      4/6

AMG   90       90       90       90
      1967     1963     2023     1967

JAX   89       90       91       90
      2017     2011     2017     1947

CRG   90       88       91       87
      2006     2012     2017     2022

GNV   91       91       90       90
      2017     1974     2023     2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  90  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  68  78  67  80 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  68  88  66  88 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  69  84  68  85 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  91  66  91 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  67  92  67  92 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$