768
FXUS62 KJAX 011051
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...through Tonight)...

Current radar imagery depicts shallow showers pushing in from the
Gulf and may make it all the way to the Atlantic coast as a vort
lobe rotates from east to west around an upper low centered to the
southwest. Heavier showers may push into the Suwannee Valley but
that activity isn`t expected to stay intact as it pushes
Northeastward through the remaining predawn hours.

Through tonight, the aforementioned compact weak upper low
located over the eastern Gulf will begin to phase with the broader
northern stream trough as it digs into the southeastern US. As
this occurs, it will help push an unseasonable cool front toward
the region. In response to the approaching surface front, moist
southwesterly flow will increase and deepen over the next 24
hours, continuing the feed a Gulf-sourced moisture across NE FL +
SE GA. Owing to the increased steering flow, the Atlantic sea
breeze will be pinned right at the coast today.

Somewhat of a rinse-and-repeat pattern today with storms
initiating along the Big Bend and then pushing Northeastward and
merging with the Atlantic sea breeze near the immediate coast.
There will be "likely" chances (or numerous) storms this afternoon
and have PoPs ranging from about 50-70%. With the higher-end of
that coverage along the sea breeze merger and across SE GA.

Although deep moisture is progged to be a bit less today, the main
threat will be localized flooding once again today. Increasing winds
aloft and sufficient near-surface lapse rates may aid in convective
wind gust production but meager lapse-rates aloft will be a limiting
factor.

By sunset, convection will have exited offshore and to the north for
the most part and anything lingering will fade quickly. Increasing
moisture will lead to mostly cloudy skies overnight with
southwesterly flow perhaps pushing a few showers out of the Gulf and
into the Suwannee Valley through the predawn hours.

Today`s highs will trend near normal or slightly below for inland
areas that cloud up early in the day with readings in the upper 80s
to low 90s areawide. Tonight lows will be a bit warmer due to a bit
of wind and increasing cloud cover with reading in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)

Moist southwesterly flow will be in place over the forecast area
on Wednesday as a dry air front presses in from out of the
northwest and then starts to stall over southeast Georgia on
Thursday. On Wednesday, numerous to widespread showers and storms
will develop through the day with the highest for strong storms
will occur over eastern counties of the forecast area and near the
I-95 corridor. Convection will become more inhibited over
southeast Georgia on Thursday following the frontal passage with a
higher likelihood of storms ahead of the frontal boundary. PWAT
values ahead of the fropa will range largely between 2 and 2.4
inches, resulting in very moist conditions with storms capable of
producing heavy amounts of rainfall. High temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday will rise into the 80s and lower 90s with
overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s for
inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)

The frontal boundary will remain stalled over southeast Georgia
through Friday, with diurnal showers and storms developing more
heavily for areas ahead of the frontal boundary. Forecast models
continue to have an area of low pressure develop along the stalled
front over the weekend, however, models still differ on where the
low pressure system may form. It is too early to determine whether
this low will develop tropical characteristics, or what local
impacts may be. At minimum expect the daily diurnal thunderstorm
chances to continue, with convergence associated with lingering
frontal zone increasing coverage.Temperatures for the end of the
week and into the weekend are expected to be near the seasonal
average with warmer high temperatures anticipated behind the
frontal boundary, over southeast Georgia.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR at the TAF sites early this morning around sunrise, but with
diurnal heating and some low level moisture this morning, there
will be some low chances for MVFR Cu development in the 1500 to
2500 ft range, but chances remain too low for BKN CIGS at this
time and will continue to just mention SCT clouds for now at the
TAF sites. Early start to convection expected late this morning
over inland NE FL and will place TEMPO at GNV from 17-21Z time
frame for MVFR TSRA chances, from 18-22Z at VQQ and 19-23Z at the
remainder of the Coastal TAF sites as a weak sea breeze develops
and pushes only inland to the I-95 corridor where storm mergers
will occur this afternoon with some gusty winds possible.
Generally VFR after sunset through Tuesday Night with abundant mid
and high clouds with low fog chances and while a random shower
will be possible at any time in the moist airmass, will leave out
for now, but may need to include at GNV in future TAF forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida
peninsula through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the
southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing
south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing
speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will
stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday weekend,
with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the latest National
Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical low pressure
development along this front late this week and into the upcoming
weekend.

RIP CURRENTS: Southerly winds will create longshore currents today
and build surf to around 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate Risk
continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as
offshore winds increase Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  72  87  71 /  70  30  80  20
SSI  89  76  88  75 /  60  30  80  40
JAX  92  73  91  73 /  60  30  90  40
SGJ  91  73  90  74 /  60  30  80  40
GNV  89  70  89  72 /  60  20  80  40
OCF  89  73  87  74 /  60  30  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$