337
FXUS62 KJAX 230013
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
713 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 06Z tonight. Fog and low stratus ceilings are possible
during the predawn and early morning hours after mid and high
altitude cloud cover depart our area early this evening.
Confidence was only high enough to indicate IFR to LIFR conditions
after 07Z at VQQ, with a period of MVFR conditions expected
elsewhere around sunrise, except at SGJ, where confidence was too
low to indicate anything other than VFR conditions at this time.
VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 14Z
Sunday. Light and variable surface winds early this evening will
become northwesterly at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals
overnight, with speeds around or less than 5 knots expected
through around 14Z. Light north-northwesterly surface winds will
otherwise develop after sunrise at the rest of the terminals,
followed by winds shifting to northerly by the mid to late
morning. The Atlantic sea breeze will then develop during the
early to mid afternoon hours and will move slowly inland, with
onshore winds around 10 knots expected after 18Z at the coastal
terminals.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across the TN
valley with sfc data showing a narrow ridge over southeast GA
into the Carolina coastal waters. A weak inverted trough appears
off the local coast. Continued veering in the low to mid levels
continues to result in warming temps and isentropic ascent,
combined with enough moisture to produce partly to mostly cloudy
skies. At 2 pm, temps are in the 60s for most areas, but far
northwest zones and the immediate coast of southeast GA are still
in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to push east
through tonight helping to spread some mid clouds into our area.
Anticipate occasional high clouds streaming in from the west
ahead of a wx disturbance over the northwest Gulf. In general,
cloud cover may decrease slowly overnight, but temps will not be
as cold as this morning. Anticipate patchy to areas of frost over
inland southeast GA, but for now, given the low to medium chance
of frost will hold off on frost advy for southeast GA. In addition,
there were hints in the guidance of forecast low temps trending a
bit higher for areas like Alma GA. Forecast low temps in the mid
to upper 30s for southeast GA, and upper 30s to lower and mid 40s
for northeast FL. Lows mostly in the 40s for the coastal areas. As
far as the coastal trough, there may be a few showers early over
the offshore waters and the shortwave will help push this inverted
trough further offshore after midnight. Left out patchy fog as it
generally appears to be low chances but some 3-5mi vsby possible
in isolated locations inland counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Sunday will kick off with patchy to areas of frost over inland
southeast Georgia as temperatures in the morning are expected to
be in the mid 30s. Temperatures will warm up shortly after sunrise
and continue to warm into the 60s over southeast Georgia and
upper 60s to low 70s over northeast Florida. High pressure ridging
over the area will slowly give way to a low pressure system
coming in from the Gulf Sunday night, increasing chances for light
to moderate rain Sunday night (15-50%) into early Monday morning
(35-60%). Over night temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s
over southeast Georgia and upper 40s to low 50s over northeast
Florida. Temperatures will be slightly warmer along the coast.

Monday, low pressure is forecast to be positioned off south
Florida`s west coast by Monday morning. Light rain showers will
linger through the day with chances of 20-30% over southeast
Georgia and 30-60% over northeast Florida beginning in the morning
and diminishing by 10% by the afternoon. Showers will linger near
the coast after sunset and will clear out by Tuesday morning.
Daytime highs will be in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s
over southeast Georgia and upper 40s to low 50s over northeast
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Dry high pressure will fill in behind the passing low with temperatures
warming to near normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the
70s until a cold front makes its way into the area by the end of
the forecast period. Skies will be clear to mostly sunny with
cloud cover beginning to increase towards the end of the week as
moisture fills back into the area. The next chance for rain will
be toward the end of the forecast period as the cold front pushes
its way through the area. Temperatures will fall just below
normal with this frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A coastal trough in the region will shift east of the waters late
tonight allowing current northeast winds to shift to northwest
and north by Sunday morning. Speeds expected to be under 15 kt.
High pressure will be over the area Sunday resulting in relatively
light winds. Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system in
the Gulf will shift east, moving across south FL by Mon night and
Tue morning. The low should be near or east of the Bahamas by Tue
aftn. There is increased northerly wind potential Mon-Tue but at
this time does not appear to warrant small craft advy. High
pressure will build back in over the forecast waters by Wed,
moving southeast of the waters by Wed night. Combined seas
through the next few days generally under 5 ft.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk for northeast FL beaches
continues today. Moderate rip current risk today for SE GA
beaches and all local beaches Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 930 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

River Flood Warnings continue for the Altamaha River at Baxley
and Charlotteville. The latest forecast shows Baxley reach Minor
flood stage Sunday morning and Charlotteville rising into Minor
flood stage Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  35  63  45  62 /   0   0  40  30
SSI  43  61  49  60 /   0   0  40  40
JAX  40  67  48  63 /   0   0  50  50
SGJ  47  65  52  64 /   0   0  50  50
GNV  42  70  49  65 /   0  10  60  40
OCF  45  73  52  68 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$