487
FXUS62 KJAX 121903
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
303 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible through Late
  this Evening. Potential Impact Areas: Locations South of I-10
  in Northeast & North Central FL. Primary Hazards:
  Damaging Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes,
  Hail, and Isolated Tornadoes.

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Across Northeast and North
  Central FL. Additional Rainfall Amounts of 0.5 to 2 Inches
  Possible through Wednesday.

- Small Craft Advisories for All Local Waters through Tonight.
  Waterspouts Possible within Stronger Storms Across the
  Northeast FL Waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through
  Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible through Tuesday
  Evening for Locations South of Interstate 10 in Northeast
  and North Central FL. Primary Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts of
  40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, Hail and Isolated
  Tornadoes.

- Beneficial Rainfall through Tonight, Mainly for Northeast and
  North Central FL. Additional Rainfall Amounts of 0.5" - 2" are
  Possible, with Localized Totals of 3-5" Possible through
  Wednesday.

- Small Craft Advisories Extended through Late Tonight and
  Wednesday  for Our Local Atlantic Waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues through Wednesday at All
  Area Beaches.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts a weak wave of low pressure
traversing Apalachee Bay and the northeast Gulf along a slow
moving frontal boundary that stretches across north central FL.
Meanwhile, high pressure (1025 millibars) was building southward
from the Mid- Atlantic states to the coastal Carolinas, with
this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...a
potent shortwave trough was moving eastward across far southern
AL, the FL panhandle, and SW GA. Otherwise, another potent
shortwave trough that was pushing towards Lake Superior was
digging a longwave trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region. Mostly light to occasionally stratiform rainfall
prevails across southeast GA, upstream from the approaching
shortwave trough, while greater instability closer to the slow
moving front was developing embedded downpours and
thunderstorms, especially across portions of north central and
coastal northeast FL. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly in
the 60s throughout southeast GA at 19Z, with upper 60s to mid
70s for northeast and north central FL.

Rainfall intensity should undergo another uptick late this
afternoon  through this evening as the potent shortwave trough
currently traversing the FL panhandle approaches our region.
Rainfall should remain mostly stratiform across southeast GA
through tonight, but some elevated thunder cannot be ruled out
tonight as temperatures aloft cool with the approach of the
shortwave trough. Embedded downpours and thunderstorms will
persist through tonight across northeast and north central FL as
the front stalls just north of the Interstate 4 corridor. A few
strong to possibly severe storms cannot be ruled out for
locations south of Interstate 10, with cooling temperatures
aloft possibly resulting in pulsing storms that could create
localized downburst winds of 40-60 mph, in addition to frequent
lightning strikes and possibly some hail. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out through the evening hours in Marion, Putnam,
and Flagler Counties, which are locations closer to the
stalling frontal boundary. Overall probabilities for severe
weather remain low due to a lack of available instability due to
abundant cloud cover and ongoing rainfall. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible overnight for locations
south of I-10, while amounts north of I-10 will generally range
between one quarter and one inch through sunrise on Wednesday.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s for inland southeast
GA to around 70 for coastal northeast FL, where gusty onshore
winds will be slow to subside overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Showers and T`storms Wednesday as northeasterly flow continues
  and as the Atlantic seabreeze pushes inland.

- Drier conditions return on Thursday behind a dry cold front.

A continuing onshore flow on Wednesday will allow for the
Atlantic sea breeze to push onshore, with scattered to
numerous showers possible from the coast and towards inland
locations as the boundary pushes inland into the afternoon
hours. Daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s, with a few cooler
spots in the upper 70s. By the evening hours, the approaching
frontal boundary will shift winds to become northwesterly by
Thursday morning as it pushes through the area. Cooler
temperatures will begin to filter into the area with Lows will
dipping to the lower 60s to mid 60s.

Thursday, drier air filters in behind the frontal boundary,
allowing clear skies to settle in for much of the area.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer than Wednesday as daytime
highs on rise to the 80s, with lower 80s across SE GA and the
upper 80s across NE FL. By the evening hours, Lows will dip down
into the mid 50s for SE GA and the upper 50s to lower 60s
across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend.

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

A period of dry conditions through the weekend and into next
week as high pressure settles over the eastern sea board. A
persistent onshore flow could bring a few showers/storms along
the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland, but not expecting
the same coverage as earlier in the week. Warmer temperatures
are expect this period with near normal temperatures during the
end of the week with temperatures in the 80s, with a few
locations in the 90s over north central FL. By the weekend,
temperatures will rise to above normal as most locations rise
above the 90F mark, with coastal locations in the 80s thanks to
the onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

IFR conditions will prevail through at least 04Z Wednesday at
the northeast FL terminals. MVFR conditions at SSI will likely
deteriorate to IFR towards 20Z, with IFR conditions then
expected to prevail through around 12Z Wednesday. Potentially
strong thunderstorms may impact the GNV terminal after 19Z, and
a TEMPO group for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots was maintained
in the TAF from through around 00Z this evening. Periods of
heavier showers are forecast at the rest of the terminals, and a
few embedded vicinity thunderstorms will be possible at the
Duval County terminals and SGJ through around 15Z Wednesday.
PROB30 groups were added at the Duval County terminals on
Wednesday morning for potential redevelopment of heavier
downpours.Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at
10-15 knots at the inland terminals, with sustained speeds at
the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals in the 15-20 knot range
through around 03Z. Frequent gusts of 20-30 knots outside of
thunderstorm activity will be possible. Surface speeds will
diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals towards 06Z,
while speeds at the coastal terminals will subside to around 10
knots towards 09Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A frontal boundary moving slowly southward across the northeast
Florida waters will become stationary across central Florida
tonight as a weak wave of low pressure currently over the
eastern Gulf pushes eastward. Meanwhile, high pressure situated
along the Mid- Atlantic coast will continue to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard, with Small Craft Advisory conditions
overspreading the waters south of St. Augustine this afternoon.
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue
across our local waters through Wednesday morning. A few strong
to severe storms will be possible across the northeast Florida
waters through tonight, with stronger storms being capable of
producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, hail,
and possibly waterspouts.

The wave of low pressure will push offshore of the east central
Florida coast on Wednesday morning, with winds shifting to
northerly while gradually decreasing as wrap-around showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms continue into Wednesday
afternoon. Another high pressure center building over the Great
Lakes region will drive a dry frontal boundary southward across
our local waters on Thursday morning, with this feature then
weakening as it shifts over the southeastern states by Friday.
Northwesterly winds in the wake of this dry frontal passage on
Thursday morning will shift to northeasterly by Thursday
afternoon, with diminishing winds and seas expected on Thursday
night and Friday.

Rip Currents:

A high risk has been extended at all area beaches through
Wednesday, where gusty onshore winds and building surf heights
of 4-6 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-4 feet at the
southeast GA beaches will persist into Wednesday morning. These
surf heights will diminish on Thursday, with a moderate risk
anticipated at the northeast FL beaches and possibly a low risk
at the southeast GA beaches as surf falls to around 2 feet or
less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Dispersions Area-Wide Thursday.

- Near Critically Low Humidity Values During the Afternoon Hours
  on Thursday and Friday Across Inland Southeast Georgia.


Northeast winds will continue into midweek as high pressure
begins to shift away from the area ahead of a dry cold front.
With the continuing onshore flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will
push in towards inland locations by Wednesday afternoon, with
scattered to numerous showers possible along the boundary. Winds
shift to become northwesterly the dry cold front Wednesday
Night. Drier air will limit any chances of showers or storms
through the upcoming weekend. But with the drier air, near
critical daytime minRH values will develop on Thursday and
Friday afternoons for locations across inland SE GA. Elevated
mixing heights will also bring high dispersions area-wide on
Thursday afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds
expected in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  79  61  82 /  50  30  10   0
SSI  68  78  66  85 /  80  70   0   0
JAX  67  80  63  87 /  80  80   0   0
SGJ  70  81  67  87 /  80  60   0   0
GNV  67  83  63  87 /  60  50  10   0
OCF  67  83  65  86 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ452.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$