120
FXUS62 KJAX 080135 AAA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
935 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents for Southeast GA Beaches on Tuesday
  Moderate Risk Northeast FL Beaches on Tuesday

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Tuesday to Sunday.
  Main hazards are locally heavy rainfall and lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only isolated showers remain this evening as we continue to
quickly lose daytime heating, suspect these showers will soon start
to dissipate. As we shift into the overnight hours, low clouds and
isolated showers will start to stream towards the coastline once
again, though not expecting much to survive inland. Otherwise, a bit
breezy near the coast with lows generally in the low to mid 70s,
though a few upper 70s are possible near the immediate coast.
Updated wording for coastal / hydro section.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Localized Flooding Rain Threat

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

The front remains stalled across central Florida Tuesday and
Wednesday, slowly dissipating. A stronger onshore breeze develops
Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping coastal high temperatures a
little `cooler` in  the mid to upper 80s, while inland highs reach
the low 90s. Overall, numerous showers and storms are forecast both
afternoons/evenings inland, with morning showers and isolated storms
moving onshore, spreading inland throughout the day. PWATs remain
around 2.0" so the localized flood threat from heavy rainfall will
continue during this period, we also may see some isolated strong
storm development over inland locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

Precipitation chances remain pretty high (near 60%) Thursday and
Friday, decreasing slightly this weekend. South/southwest winds will
rise temperatures back up to above normal in the lower to mid 90s
through the weekend, with highest storm chances over north central
Florida. An isolated flooding rainfall threat returns for Thursday
and Friday, with the Weather Prediction Center having the entire
area under a `Marginal` risk of excessive rainfall both days.
Another front will approach the area from the north at the end of
this week, at this time it appears to stall over central Georgia
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Northeasterly flow will continue for the forecast period, bringing
periodic SHRA and MVFR stratus to parts of the region, primarily
closer to the coast. Confidence is rather low with respect to extent
of MVFR stratus impacts, low enough that have kept PROB30 groups
overnight for now in which some or all of these sites may need
amendments for TEMPO groups overall. Winds are expected to remain
near or just above 10 knots at both SSI and SGJ overnight, though
dropping off through the next few hours inland. SHRA are expected to
stream onshore again beginning late morning on Tuesday, though TSRA
probabilities are overall low. Only included inland terminals (VQQ
and GNV) for TSRA mention at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

A frontal boundary will shift south of area waters tonight into
Tuesday as high pressure strengthens to the northeast, persisting
onshore flow. High pressure then builds east of the local waters by
Thursday then extends across the Florida peninsula Friday into the
weekend with a return of westerly winds and the afternoon east coast
sea breeze.

Onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk today. As onshore flow
strengthens and surf builds with breakers up to 3-4 ft on Tuesday, a
High Risk of Rip Currents will develop along the southeast GA
beaches. High Risk may expand to all beaches by Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front is expected to shift southward into central Florida
tonight, and stalling there through Thursday. Increased rain and
storm chances are forecast each day, with onshore winds bringing
morning coastal showers that will spread inland throughout the day
and increase in coverage. There remains potential for locally heavy
downpours through mid-week. Overall, dispersion will be fair to good
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will shift to southerly/southwesterly
Thursday through the weekend.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm
activity. Patchy inland morning fog possible each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Updated
Coastal water levels begin to increase this week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds
Tonight through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, guidance and
observations show that water levels will be near and just above
the action stage through Wednesday both along the local Atlantic
coast and within the St. Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  90 /  10  60  20  60
SSI  78  87  78  87 /  30  60  50  50
JAX  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  50  60
SGJ  76  86  77  88 /  40  40  30  50
GNV  73  90  73  90 /  30  70  20  70
OCF  73  90  74  91 /  50  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$