838
FXUS62 KJAX 011806
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
206 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday Night and Monday

- Minor Tidal Flooding along the Atlantic Coast and Portions of
  the St. Johns River Basin Begins Tuesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches this Weekend. High
  Risk Possible on Tuesday and Wednesday

- Small Craft Advisories Likely Monday Afternoon through Tuesday
  Night

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023 millibars)
positioned over the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a cold front
stretches from eastern Great Lakes southwestward through the
Ozarks to western Texas, with a wave of low pressure developing
along this boundary over the Texas Hill Country. Aloft...a potent
shortwave trough that was digging south-southeastward from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley was reinforcing a longwave trough that
remains positioned east of the Rockies. Otherwise, ridging aloft
was centered over southern California. Flat cumulus clouds were
developing along the I-95 corridor along a weak Atlantic sea
breeze boundary. Temperatures at 18Z generally were climbing
through the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dewpoints ranged from the 30s
across inland locations from Interstate 10 northward, ranging to
around 50 along the northeast FL coast behind the inland moving
sea breeze boundary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The potent shortwave trough digging across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley will continue its south-southeastward trajectory towards
the Tennessee Valley by early Sunday morning. Southwesterly flow
aloft will gradually deepen ahead of this approaching trough
through Sunday night. This system will push a cold front into the
southeastern states tonight, with high pressure positioned over
our region gradually weakening overnight. A dry and subsident
air mass will persist across our region tonight, with radiational
cooling expected this evening. A few mid and high altitude clouds
developing within the deepening southwesterly flow pattern may
move overhead towards sunrise on Sunday. Lows tonight will fall to
the 40s for inland locations along and west of the I-95 corridor,
with low and mid 50s expected at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Increased chances for isolated to scattered showers beginning
Sunday afternoon and evening as troughing ahead of an advancing
weak cold front moves through the forecast area through Monday.
Gusty surface winds will build from out of the north on Monday as
a result of the tightening pressure gradient. High temperatures
will drop down from out of the 70s on Sunday into the upper 60s by
Monday. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper
40s over southeast Georgia and in the upper 40s and lower 50s over
northeast Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Lingering light showers will become dispersed by Tuesday evening
with dry weather conditions settling into place through next week,
following the weak frontal passage, with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies and breezy northerly winds becoming more mild and
variable by midweek and into the end of the week. Temperatures
will experience a warming trend over the course of the week with
temps rising to be near and then above the seasonal average by the
end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

High pressure positioned over our area will weaken this evening
as a cold front enters the southeastern states. Coastal troughing
will develop ahead of this approaching front over our local waters
overnight, with this feature sharpening on Sunday and likely
developing into a weak low pressure center off the southeastern
seaboard by Sunday night. Meanwhile, this cold front will cross
our local waters on Sunday night, accompanied by scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will
prevail throughout our local waters through Sunday night.

Northerly winds will then strengthen in the wake of the frontal
passage on Monday afternoon and night, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected to overspread our local waters by Monday
evening, as speeds increase to 20 to 25 knots. Seas will build to
Caution levels of 4-6 feet from Monday night through Tuesday
night. High pressure will then build into the southeastern
states by Wednesday, allowing northeasterly winds and seas to
gradually subside.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A dry air mass will persist across our region today, allowing
minimum relative humidity values to fall to the 30-35 percent
range at most inland locations this afternoon. Otherwise, light
northeasterly transport winds today will generally result in poor
daytime dispersion values. Light north-northeasterly transport
winds on Sunday morning will become variable in direction at
inland locations during the afternoon hours, with poor daytime
dispersion values again forecast at most locations. Surface and
transport winds will shift to northerly on Monday morning and then
north-northwesterly during the afternoon hours. Breezy speeds
will develop during the afternoon, yielding good daytime
dispersion values, with pockets of marginally high values
possible for inland locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The next perigean spring tide will occur next week, with the full
moon occurring Wednesday. Nov 4th-7th are the peak in predicted
astronomical tides. Guidance shows the combination of the north-
northeast winds and these peak astronomical tides pushing coastal
areas into minor flood levels, with total water levels peaking
around 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). Therefore,
this minor coastal flooding concern will continue to be
monitored as we move closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  71  46  67 /   0  20  40  30
SSI  49  71  55  68 /   0  10  40  40
JAX  47  75  52  70 /   0  10  30  40
SGJ  55  74  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
GNV  46  76  52  71 /   0  20  30  30
OCF  48  76  53  70 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$