420
FXUS62 KJAX 300026
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
826 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...New AVIATION...


.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Showers and storms will linger through the early evening hours,
with SGJ seeing a period of showers and storms from 01Z to 02Z.
Near calm winds during the overnight hours, with southwesterly
winds becoming established once again during the mid morning
hours. Showers and storms will look to get going again during the
afternoon hours, PROB30 for now across each of the TAF sites.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Upper level ridge encompasses region. At the surface, trough
extends from Savannah through Suwannee Valley with precipitable
water values in SE GA between 2 and 2.2 inches and across NE FL
1.8 to 2.0 inches. Moisture convergence will occur near the sfc
trough this afternoon with another focus being the seabreezes.
Convection has already started to fire just west of the Suwannee
Valley and interior southeast Georgia with these showers and
storms pressing eastward as west coast sea breeze migrates
eastward toward central peninsula and toward Waycross and Folkston.

A few storms may also initialize and pulse along the I-95
corridor with east coast sea breeze during the mid/late afternoon
and early evening hours, with stronger storms pressing inland
potentially containing downburst winds of 35-45 mph, frequent
lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours as it meets up with
west coast seabreeze.

Otherwise, heat is the main story, as oppressive humidity values
combine with highs in the mid to upper 90s (encroaching 100 in
some locations) to create peak heat index values in the 108-115
degree range. Extreme Heat Warning for most of the region the rest
of the afternoon and early evening with Heat Advisory north and
west of Alma to the Altamaha in the same temporal span.

Showers will wane with the loss of daytime heating and gradual
diminish to near nil about a couple hours after sundown. Muggy
conditions overnight with lows in the 75 to 80 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Atlantic ridging builds over the region continuing SW flow into
Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storms develop
along the inland moving sea breezes. With the SW flow, the
Atlantic sea breeze will remain pinned to the coast with the sea
breeze merger occurring along the I-95 corridor in the late
afternoon into evening. A few storms may pulse along the merger,
with stronger storms potentially containing downburst winds of
40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy
downpours. Slightly less storm coverage on Thursday with the
increase in subsidence. Despite the rain, the dangerous heat is
expected to continue with daytime highs in the mid-upper 90s and
dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s resulting in peak heat indices
mainly in the 105-112 F range. A Heat Advisory is in effect for
all of NE FL and SE GA on Wednesday and is likely to be issued
again on Thursday. Some portions of our area may be considered for
an Excessive Heat Warning again where heat indices could possibly
exceed criteria (113+ F). With continuous dangerous heat expected,
it is important to refrain from extended periods outside during
the afternoon hours and remain hydrated to avoid heat-related
illness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A trough situated between a frontal boundary to the north and high
pressure ridging extending in over the Florida peninsula from out
of the east will stall over the region bringing more widespread
showers and storms by the weekend as the advancing frontal
boundary presses down into Georgia. Above average daily high
temperatures will continue through the end of the week and then
drop down to be closer to the seasonal average by the end of the
weekend and into next week as increased diurnal convection
increases towards the end of the forecast period. Heat index
values are expected to reach into Heat Advisory levels through the
end of the week and into Saturday before dropping slightly on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Ridging over the waters will break down slightly this afternoon
and evening as a weak trough/front stalls over southeast Georgia.
The front will essentially dissipate on Wednesday, and a ridge of
high pressure will build back into the waters from the east.
Offshore winds are expected to continue through the rest of the
week as high pressure will be located south and east of the area,
though become more southeasterly during the daytime hours as a sea
breeze develops. Chances for showers and storms will remain
generally lower than normal Wednesday through Friday before
another front approaches from the north for the weekend and
increases rain chances across area waters.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be low to moderate
through the next few days with a sea breeze developing daily

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites...

                     TUE 7/29   WED 7/30   THUR 7/31

Jacksonville, FL     100/1875   102/2010   102/1999
Gainesville, FL      99/1896    100/1896   100/1892
Craig Airport, FL    101/2016   101/2010   101/1999
Alma, GA (AMG)       99/2016    101/1961   102/1999

Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites...

                     TUE 7/29   WED 7/30   THUR 7/31

Jacksonville, FL     80/1877    81/1872    78/1941
Gainesville, FL      77/1899    78/2010    77/2011
Craig Airport, FL    79/2017    80/2010    79/2011
Alma, GA (AMG)       77/2017    77/1999    77/1999

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  96  75  96 /  40  60  20  20
SSI  80  94  80  95 /  10  30  10  20
JAX  77  97  77  97 /  20  50  10  30
SGJ  77  95  78  95 /  20  40  10  20
GNV  77  95  76  96 /  20  50  10  30
OCF  77  95  76  94 /  20  50  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$