744
FXUS62 KJAX 101128
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
728 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk all Local Beaches Today and Friday.
  Elevated Risk Returns Early Next Week.

- Daily Heat Index up to 107 through Sunday.

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Main Hazards: Locally
  Heavy Rain, Lightning & Gusty Winds Up to 40-50 mph.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights:

- Potential for a few strong thunderstorms and localized
  flooding this afternoon through early this evening, mainly at
  inland locations.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Today.

Some patchy fog early this morning inland areas, and can`t rule
out brief locally dense fog over inland southeast GA. Already
seeing areas of low stratus so not a stretch to see a period of
lower vsby there. Meanwhile, the pattern for today will pivot
fairly quickly back to a southeast to south flow from 1000-700mb
as low level ridging moves offshore of the southeast states. A
weak boundary, probably remnants of a frontal zone, will lift
northward over the area today while dissipating, and be
positioned near the Altamaha River Basin by about 2 PM. The
airmass remains moist with PWATs of just over 2 inches per the
18z JAX RAOB, with NAM and other guidance showing values near
2.25 inches this afternoon. This moisture and daytime heating
should result in MLCAPE of up to about 2500 J/kg, though deep
layer shear remains weak. Isolated strong thunderstorms are
still expected with gusty winds to about 50 mph and locally
heavy rainfall. Max estimated max rainfall amounts may be near 4
inches in some spots. The more robust thunderstorms should be
inland mainly near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Movement of
the cells should be northerly about 10 mph by the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this evening,
but should dissipate through midnight as instability wanes.
Patchy fog may develop once again late tonight inland areas.

Temperatures will trend above average with highs in the lower
90s  for most inland locations to upper 80s to near 90 at the
coast. Peak heat index values will reach to about 106 or so
today. Muggy overnight lows will range in the lower/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily potential for isolated strong thunderstorms and
  potential for localized flooding.

Southwesterly to southerly steering flow will be in place
through  the period, bringing Gulf moisture across NE FL and SE
GA as PWATs rise to above 2.25". The steering flow will allow
for the Gulf breeze to move well inland each afternoon, with
mergers with the Atlantic sea breeze occurring between the
US-301 corridor towards the I-95 corridor. With the elevated
moisture aloft, showers and storms that do develop could bring
periods of locally heavy rainfall. Isolated strong storms, maybe
a few severe storms, could bring gusty winds in the 30 to 50
mph range.

Daytime highs will be in the 90s along inland locations on
Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Heat index values will hover just under Heat Advisory criteria,
with values in the upper 90s to around 107F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period Saturday through Wednesday:

- Above Average Temperatures & Daily Thunderstorms this Weekend.

- Elevated Rip Current Risk Next Week.

Relatively stubborn pattern will develop over the weekend and
through next week as deep ridging becomes stacked well offshore.
Initially over the weekend this positions a lower level ridge
axis directly across the local area, resulting in a weak
southerly flow regime. The Gulf and Atlantic coast seas breezes
are expected to push inland and trigger showers and storms as
the breezes merge across inland areas during the late afternoon
and into the evening. By Monday, the ridge axis moves north,
reintroducing onshore flow early next week. The primary concerns
each day will be localized potential for strong thunderstorms
due to mesoscale boundary collisions with the potential for
localized rainfall and flooding concerns. With the return of
easterly winds next week, local rip current risk will also
become elevated once again.

Temperature highs in the 90s will begin to decrease into the
middle of the upcoming week, with highs in the mid to upper
80s as easterly flow returns on Tuesday. Lows will continue to
range in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 17Z. Showers and thunderstorms will begin developing near
the terminals towards 18Z, and TEMPO groups for brief surface
wind gusts of 25-30 knots and IFR visibilities during heavier
downpours were placed in the TAFs for the Duval County terminals
and GNV through around 01Z Friday. Confidence in impacts was
slightly lower for the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, where
PROB30 groups for brief surface wind gusts up to 25 knots and
MVFR conditions during heavier downpours were placed in these
TAFs through around 00Z. VFR conditions should then prevail at
the regional terminals by 02Z. Periods of LIFR to IFR conditions
are expected overnight at VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure stretching across Georgia and the Carolinas will
gradually weaken while shifting south through the weekend.
Meanwhile, a cold front will move into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by Friday and move toward the area waters early next
week.

Rip Currents: Diminished winds and dropping surf will tend to
lower  the rip current risk toward the moderate range today.
Prevailing winds will become south-southwesterly by Friday, with
a lingering easterly ocean swell and onshore winds developing
during the afternoon hours behind the inland moving sea breeze
keeping a lower- end moderate risk at area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds will steadily veer to become southerly to southwesterly
Today.  This will allow for the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast
sea breezes to push inland by the afternoon hours, with showers
and storms developing and increasing in coverage near Highway
301. As weaker transport winds develop, Dispersions will be Fair
for most of the time over the next few days. Otherwise, RH
values will sit at Good levels through the weekend as moisture
moves in from the Gulf and towards southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic wind shifts will occur from
thunderstorm activity. Patchy fog is expected across inland areas
this morning, with widespread dense fog unlikely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

As far as coastal water levels, we expect tidal water levels to
peak  to near the Action stage through Friday due to the recent
onshore flow but mainly due to the new moon phase which is
Friday, Sept 11th. Mostly nuisance type flooding is expected for
a brief time into the weekend, including in the St Johns River
Basin.

As far as rainfall today, isolated pockets of about 4 inches are
possible mainly across an area from eastern Marion county
northward to around Baker county. These storms may cause
temporary flooding, especially in any poor drainage or urbanized
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  91  73 /  40  30  50  10
SSI  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  40  30
JAX  91  74  92  74 /  60  30  60  20
SGJ  90  75  90  75 /  50  20  60  10
GNV  92  73  91  73 /  60  30  60  20
OCF  92  74  91  74 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$