268
FXUS62 KJAX 111332
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
932 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No changes to the forecast this morning as convergent band of
Showers and isolated T`storms along the SE GA coast will lift
northward through midday. With strong heating, showers will
redevelop as seabreezes develop, but T`storms will not form
until early to mid afternoon for most inland areas until the
seabreezes merge while less chances for T`storms expected along
the coast as Atlantic seabreeze moves in early. The T`storms
will move south to north with gust winds in stronger isolated
cells and produce locally heavy downpours, but with overall
lower risk for flooding potential given faster storm motions.

Highs will be in the lower 90s for most locations away from the
coast with upper 80s to near 90 at the beaches. Southeast winds
will be breezy at the coast 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph and
around 10 mph inland.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic builds into the FL
peninsula on Tuesday and overhead on Wednesday as drier air begins
to advect in from the south. As heights build aloft, the area
returns to a more typical diurnal sea breeze pattern. Convective
coverage decreases Tuesday and Wednesday compared to Monday with
scattered showers and storms developing along the inland moving
sea breezes and becoming numerous along the sea breeze merger.
With southerly flow on Tuesday, the sea breeze merger will likely
be between the I-75 and US 301 corridors in the late afternoon and
evening. WSW flow on Wednesday will shift the merger to the I-95
corridor. With less storm coverage and ridging building in, high
temperatures will rise above seasonable in the low to mid 90s
area-wide. With the combination of lingering tropical moisture and
rising temperatures, peak heat indices will rise into the 100-109
F range. A Heat Advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Mid-level ridging over the FL peninsula gradually shifts westward
into the central Gulf by the weekend. Scattered showers and storms
will develop with diurnal heating, forming along the daytime sea
breeze boundaries as they shift inland each day. WSW flow Thursday
and Friday will pin the Atlantic sea breeze closer to the coast
with the merger likely along the I-95 corridor. Flow shifts to NNE
for the weekend shifting the merger to the US 301/I-75 corridors.
Above seasonable temperatures continue into the weekend with highs
in the low/mid 90s area-wide. The combination of heat and humidity
will cause peak heat indices to soar to Heat Advisory criteria
(108-112 F) potentially area-wide. WPC has also highlighted inland
NE FL for the potential for hazardous heat in their Day 3-7
Hazards Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 822 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist at GNV through 15Z before lifting
while light shower bands may reinvigorate along the Georgia coast
and have a PROB30 group for MVFR restrictions from T`storms for
embedded cells that may develop and move onshore with gusty winds.

Breezy conditions will develop today as an old frontal boundary
dissipates and Atlantic high pressure builds slowly southward from
the northeast with southeasterly winds 10-15 knots and gusts to
20-25 knots at the coast, 15-20 knots inland. Showers will develop
as moist airmass and strong heating and inland moving seabreezes
interact. T`storms will develop between 18-20Z at the duval and
GNV terminals with an earlier start at SSI where better low level
convergence will be. Showers and embedded T`storms will linger
inland until around 00Z, but end after 20-22Z near the coast.
Winds will decrease and turn southerly overnight 5-10 knots at the
coast and under 5 knots inland with low stratus and patchy fog
after 08Z at GNV and VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A diffuse frontal boundary across the Georgia waters will slowly
dissipate today as high pressure ridge builds north of the local
waters through tonight and Tuesday with southeast flow continuing.
This high pressure ridge will move over the local waters by
Wednesday, then build south of the waters by the end of the week,
and a southwest flow will develop. Winds and seas are expected to
remain below headline levels this week.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Rip Current Risk Today and Tuesday
with surf/breakers 2-3 ft and onshore/SE flow continuing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  73  93  74 /  80  50  50  20
SSI  88  78  91  79 /  70  30  40  20
JAX  92  76  93  76 /  50  30  40  10
SGJ  90  77  91  76 /  50  30  50  10
GNV  93  74  94  75 /  60  50  50  10
OCF  92  74  93  76 /  70  40  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$