211
FXUS62 KJAX 140438
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1238 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another hot and humid day with Southwest steering flow this
morning becoming more Westerly through the afternoon into tonight.
This will keep the East Coast sea breeze pinned closer to the
Atlantic beaches, likely only reaching into the I-95 corridor by
the late afternoon or early evening hours. This will lead to
slightly lower rainfall chances, generally in the 30-50% range,
late this afternoon and evening as only scattered storms expected
to develop along the Gulf Coast sea breeze as it tracks across
inland areas and reaches the pinned East coast sea breeze late in
the day, which is where any strong to isolated severe storms will
be possible with gusty winds to 40-60 mph along with heavy
downpours. Storm motion will be towards the East-Northeast at
15-25 mph and will push any convection that develops along the
I-95 corridor into the Atlantic Coastal waters during the early
evening hours with gusty winds possible for mariners/boaters as
well. This SW to W flow pattern and lower rainfall chances will
also lead to highs into the lower to middle 90s area-wide,
including the Atlantic beaches, so combined with dew points into
the mid/upper 70s will produce peak heat indices into the 108-112F
range and have posted a Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm for all of
NE FL and most of SE GA to the South and East of Waycross all the
way to the SE GA beaches as well. Have left out a few inland SE GA
counties to the NW of Waycross where peak heat indices will top
out in the 104-107F range, just below advisory criteria. Following
the afternoon/early evening convection expect another muggy
overnight with fair skies and low temps only falling into the
mid/upper 70s inland and around 80F along the Atlantic Coastal
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Steering flow will shift to westerly on Friday, keeping the
Atlantic sea breeze from pushing inland. With high pressure still
in place and limited sea breeze movement, convection chances will
be lower than the average summer day. Precipitation potential is
at about 25-45% across the area, highest storm chances will likely
be over inland northeast Florida where the Gulf sea breeze can
spark up some vertical development. Temperatures will remain above
average Friday, with highs in the mid 90s inland and lower 90s
along the coast. Heat indices will be dangerously high again,
reaching 105-110 for most of the area.

Higher rain chances will return on Saturday as a weak boundary
sinks southward. Temperatures stay a little above normal Saturday,
with the current max heat index forecast showing values near
105-110 again, however reaching these values would heavily depend
on the timing of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Northeasterly winds will fill in on Sunday, keeping coastal
locations north of Jacksonville from reaching 90 degrees, and
allow for numerous showers and storms to develop. Temperatures
will be more near normal Monday through Wednesday with higher rain
chances continuing.

The National Hurricane Center is currently issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Erin as it moves towards the Bahamas this weekend,
with models still showing a northward turn before approaching the
US east coast. Likely the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia
coast will see dangerous rip currents and surf associated with
Erin starting late this weekend. Continue to monitor the official
forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VFR conds with leftover high clouds early this morning at all
terminals, then diurnal heating and light SW flow in the 13-15Z
time frame will allow for SCT Cu development in the 2000-3000ft
range, but any MVFR ceiling probs remain too low for any inclusion
at this time. Otherwise expect to continue PROB30 groups at all
TAF sites for gusty TSRA activity and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, in the
19-23Z time frame at GNV and 20-24Z time frame at the rest of NE
FL/SSI terminals. Storm chances generally end in the 01-02Z time
frame with leftover VFR conds and lingering high clouds through
the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

High pressure ridge centered across the Florida peninsula will
drift southward through Friday as a trough develops over the
southeastern states. Prevailing southwest to south winds are
forecast as this trough settles over our local waters on Friday,
with prevailing onshore winds then developing by late Saturday and
Saturday night as the trough potentially organizes into a weak low
pressure center along the southeastern seaboard. Scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected over our
nearshore local waters through Friday, with an increase in
coverage possible during the upcoming weekend. Seas will begin to
increase early next week as long period swells start to arrive
from Hurricane Erin.

Rip Currents: A marginal Moderate Rip Current Risk Today and
Friday with surf/breakers around 2 ft or less with a weaker S to
SE sea breeze along the Atlantic beaches during the
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Minor flooding possible along the Altamaha River near Baxley this
weekend as rainfall from this past weekend works it`s way through
the basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  95  75 /  30  10  40  20
SSI  91  79  93  79 /  40  30  30  40
JAX  95  77  97  77 /  40  30  50  30
SGJ  94  77  94  78 /  40  20  40  30
GNV  94  76  96  76 /  40  10  50  20
OCF  94  75  96  77 /  40  10  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-
     522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$