565
FXUS62 KJAX 211921
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
221 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Currently, chilly airmass continues but skies are clear except
for St Johns and Flagler counties where some scattered stratocu
clouds continue to stream onshore. Temps are in the upper 40s to
lower to mid 50s, warmest temps over the south zones. These temps
are about 15-20 deg below normal. Strong high pressure system
around 1033 mb is located across GA but is forecast to shift
northeastward tonight. A shortwave trough in the mid to upper
levels will move into the region late tonight spreading some mid
to mostly high clouds into region. The basic forecast remains on
track with min temps over southeast GA likely to reach freezing
and so we upgraded the freeze watch to a warning. Further south,
areas to widespread frost look probable so a frost advisory
extends through interior northeast FL to about the I-10 corridor.
The temps expected to trend toward overnight lows by middle of the
night, may begin reacting to high clouds by leveling out or
rising 1-2 deg by sunrise, mainly for northeast FL. For temps
guidance, mainly used the NBM with some slight downward
adjustments. An inverted trough expected to form mainly over the
northeast FL waters late tonight, and though low level moisture
will be plentiful offshore, currently expecting a few showers to
remain just east of the offshore waters by 12z Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Temperatures rebound and warm through the weekend with highs
reaching the mid/upper 60s each afternoon. Partly sunny conditions
and onshore flow Saturday will help with the warm up during the day
but clearing skies inland will allow temps to cool enough Saturday
night to support areas frost for portions of inland SE GA. Sunday
will start mostly sunny but cloud cover will spread west to east
ahead of an approaching shortwave disturbance. There is some
uncertainty with that compact system and the precip predicted to
accompany it. Expect most of the precip to focus across central and
southern FL but some of that shower activity may spread into
southern GA Sunday night where jet dynamics exist. Kept shower
chances between 20-30% through Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

To start the next work week, moisture and a weak low, organizing
beneath a progressive shortwave riding along the subtropical
jetstream across the Gulf, will slide west to east across Florida
bringing a chance of showers and mostly cloudy skies. Following that
passing disturbance, guidance agrees on a similar pattern through
the rest of the week as surface high pressure builds from the
Gulf Tuesday through Wednesday. By Thursday, an amplifying trough
with in the north stream will pivot it`s trough axis Thursday. The
attendant front isn`t totally dry but precip along the boundary
will be scant with lingering dryness aloft. Temperatures will
trend upward, above normal through Thursday. The main impact
during this mostly quiet period will likely be episodes of morning
fog.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions for the most part except some stratocumulus affecting
SGJ at times that could bring brief MVFR cig right around 3 kft.
Otherwise, an increase in cloudiness expected by Saturday morning
as easterly flow brings in some more low level moisture and mid
and high clouds stream in from the west. At this time, chances of
any MVFR for Saturday morning are too low (given current NBM and
HREF), though can`t rule out after 14z for JAX, CRG, VQQ and SGJ.
Sfc winds will be northeast about 8-15 kt at the all TAF sites
through 22z/23z, strongest at SGJ and CRG. Winds should slacken
off tonight while turning more northeasterly on Saturday at 5-10
kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

High pressure ridge north of the area will shift northeastward
through Saturday and allow winds to turn more northeast to east.
Winds should continue to slacken by tonight and gradually through
Saturday as a coastal trough will be near the area waters. Some
increased north winds possible by late Sat night as the trough
moves further east and winds on the back side increase a bit but
likely not at small craft advy criteria. Winds expected to trend
a little lower again during the day on Sunday. A low pressure system
expected to move south of the region across the FL peninsula Monday
and Tuesday. At this time, does not look like SCA headlines will
be required at that time.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk rest of today for NE FL
beaches under gusty north-northeast winds with breakers near 4-6
ft. Moderate risk for SE GA beaches today. Moderate risk is
forecast for Saturday with more easterly wind component and still
rough surf.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River Flood Warning for the Altamaha River at Baxley
continues, with forecast rising into Minor flood stage Saturday
evening. Will likely need a Flood Warning for Charlotteville later
today for a forecast rise into Minor flood stage Sunday or Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  29  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  38  60  43  62 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  37  65  41  67 /   0  10   0   0
SGJ  43  65  46  65 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  36  68  41  69 /   0  10   0   0
OCF  40  70  43  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-120-220-322-422-522.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Saturday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$