100
FXUS62 KJAX 201044
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
644 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Through Sunrise: limited fog potential this morning but highest
potential, roughly about 20%, remains across inland SE GA where
light mist has been reported. Unlikely that any fog related
headlines or statements will be needed.

Today: Upper moisture leaking across the backside of the upper
ridge will lead to thin patches of cirrus to add some texture to
this morning`s sunrise. A stagnant pattern continues but surface
high pressure situated off over the Atlantic will drift westward
closer to the coastline today while it begins to weaken. While
there could be a few sprinkles along a weak coastal trough over
the open Atlantic, rain chances remain near nil at the coast due
to very dry low/mid levels. Similar to the last few days, a
breezy, southeasterly wind will be strongest at the beaches with
gusts up to 20 mph and lesser inland. Onshore flow will keep the
beaches a bit cooler this afternoon, around 80 degrees, thanks to
SSTs in the in the low 70s over the nearshore waters. Inland areas
will push toward the upper 80s with a few sites potentially
reaching 90 degrees an areas along I-75 from Gainesville
southward.

Tonight: Cirrus will build in a bit thicker from the northwest as
stubborn ridging in the mid levels finally begins to be flattened
and pushed southeast. Thicker high clouds should lower potential
for dense fog but another night of patchy to areas of fog is
likely, especially for inland SE GA. Beneath the cirrus,
temperatures will be fairly mild and generally in the low 60s
inland and mid/upper 60s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Monday, models show strong ridge just east of the area beginning
to weaken slightly while sinking south to the northern Bahamas.
The surface high extending form the Atlantic will in tandem weaken
across our area. This trend will continue into Tuesday as the ridge
aloft centers over the central Bahamas while the surface high
retreats away into the Atlantic waters north of Bermuda. Winds
will be from the southeast with the Atlantic seabreeze passage west
of I-95 each day 10-15 mph and remain from the southerly direction
inland 5-10 mph.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 inland,
mid to upper 80s along I-95 corridor with low 80s at the coast.

The moist low level airmass under high level clouds will allow for
mild, above normal overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night into
the low 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

During the period, mid to to upper level pattern will become more
flattened over the region with weak shortwave impulses riding ENE
over a stalled frontal boundary just to our north. Atlantic high
pressure will extend a weak surface ridge axis into the area from
the NE with southeast to easterly winds pushing onshore as the
Atlantic seabreeze progresses well inland. A southerly light
wind/Gulf seabreeze will merge over far inland locations and
may produce isolated T`storms, mainly north of Waycross into
the Altamaha river basin through the week.

The onshore flow, moist airmass, and abundant sunshine will bring
near record high temperatures to the area, especially away from the
coast with low to mid 90s (see climate) into Saturday while the
coast warms into the mid 80s t the beachfront to the upper 80s
along I-95 and low 90s just west of US-17. Lows will rise slowly
from the low 60s inland into the mid 60s and to the upper 60s at
the coast and along the St Johns river.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions will continue at airfields this morning, except
where localized fog and low stratus have develop in inland
southeast GA (west of I-95). A lifting trough axis will push
shallow cumulus into the coastal airfield through around noon.
Southeast winds around 8-12 kts with gusts intermittently up to 20
kts at the coast. Winds will back to the east with the influence
of the sea breeze this afternoon before veering back to the
southeast this evening. Thicker cirrus moving overhead tonight
will stifle fog/low stratus development at TAF locations during
the predawn hours Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Nearly stacked area of high pressure continue southeasterly winds
across the waters today. High pressure will weaken as early this
upcoming week as a frontal boundary stalls to the north. Under the
weak flow pattern, the afternoon sea breezes will be the primary
weather feature, increasing winds across the nearshore waters
around 10 to 15 knots each day.

Rip Currents: High volume of beachgoers coupled with a building
surf with the afternoon sea breeze will lead to a High Risk along
NE FL beaches. Moderate risk for the SE GA beaches today and at
all beaches on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

High pressure will continue to extend across the area today with
southeasterly winds 10-15 mph near the coast with gusts to 25 mph
and winds decreasing to 5-10 mph inland under mostly sunny skies.
High pressure will weaken slightly Monday into Tuesday as a frontal
boundary stalls north of the area with dry conditions continuing
allowing min RH values to lower to 30-35 percent west of US-17.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

     TUE             WED             THU             FRI

JAX 93 (1995) 92 (1970) 93 (1999) 92 (1958)

GNV94 (1968)92 (1970)94 (1999)93 (1896)

AMG92 (1970)94 (1968)93 (1999)91 (1958)

CRG89 (2002)89 (2020)92 (1999)91 (2006)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  68  80  67 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  84  65  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  80  66  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  89  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  89  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$