556
FXUS62 KJAX 062326
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A few exiting showers will impact coastal northeast Florida over
the next hour or so, then it will be dry through the night. Calm
winds and enhanced moisture will allow for patchy fog formation
near I-75 tonight, clearing up around sunrise. Low temperatures
will be mild in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1013
millibars) that is beginning to accelerate northeastward and
away from North Carolina`s Outer Banks, while Atlantic high
pressure (1023 millibars) was centered near Bermuda. Otherwise, a
wavy frontal boundary extends from the Southern Plains east-
northeastward through the Ohio Valley. Aloft...ridging aloft
centered over Deep South Texas was creating northwesterly flow
across our area. This ridge was steering a potent shortwave trough
eastward across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley.
Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates that PWAT values have fallen to the 1.7 - 1.9 inch
range, which is above climatology for early June. Brisk westerly
low level flow was propelling widely scattered convection eastward
across our region, with a few stronger storms earlier along the
St. Johns River and coastal St. Johns County producing brief wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. Recent convection developing over the Suwannee
Valley was creating similar downburst gusts. Outside of this
convective activity, temperatures have climbed to the upper 80s
and lower 90s, with heat index values approaching 100 at 19Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing through sunset
will be steered eastward by low and mid level westerly flow. A
few storms will be pulse and possibly become strong as convection
interacts with mesoscale boundaries. Stronger storms this
afternoon will be capable of producing downburst gusts of 40-50
mph, along with frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and
briefly heavy downpours. Activity will mostly push offshore of the
Atlantic coast by sunset, but northwesterly flow aloft could
steer a few storms over inland southeast GA back towards the I-10
and I-95 corridors early this evening.

Any lingering convection early this evening will dissipate before
midnight, with low level westerly flow possibly bringing another
round of low stratus ceilings eastward from the FL Big Bend and
Nature Coast across the Suwannee Valley during the overnight and
predawn hours, with these lower cloud ceilings possibly
approaching U.S. Highway 301 towards sunrise. Lows tonight will
only fall to the lower 70s inland, while a light offshore breeze
keeps coastal locations in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Southwesterly flow continues through the weekend, leading to the
Gulf breeze to move well inland each day. Gulf moisture and
diurnal heating will help to destabilize the local environment
and increase the chances of strong to severe storms to develop
during the afternoon hours on Saturday and Sunday along the Gulf
breeze. The SPC has pulled back on the Slight risk over the
Altamaha River Basin on Saturday, as the chances of shortwaves
reaching into SE GA has lessened. Come Sunday, some shortwaves
along the mid-level westerly flow may allow for some severe
storms to develop as the Gulf breeze moves through during the
afternoon to evening hours, but earlier morning showers and storms
may keep later storms below severe levels.

The main thunderstorm hazards each day will be locally heavy
rainfall, especially where cell mergers occur, as well as gusty
downburst winds. Daytime highs will be in the low/mid 90s on
Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows dip into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The wet weather will remain over the area during the upcoming week
as the southwesterly flow persists into midweek, allowing for gulf
moisture to continue to filter into the area. With the Gulf breeze
expected to move well inland with the southwesterly flow, the
Atlantic breeze will remain pinned along the coast. Passing
shortwaves along the northern locations of SE GA will likely see
higher potential for severe storms. By midweek, the southwesterly
flow shifts to become southerly then southeasterly as the Bermuda
High begins to strengthen and stretch over the region. The shift
in flow will allow for the Atlantic breeze to move further inland.
Highs will continue in the lower/mid 90s as the westerly flow
continues, but cooler temperatures along the Atlantic coast will
begin to develop as the east coast breeze begins to make its way
towards inland locations by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Showers and storms have exited offshore, VFR conditions are
expected at the coastal sites tonight. VQQ and GNV have potential
for MVFR to potentially IFR conditions before sunrise. Tomorrow,
there is another chance for afternoon storms, for now have placed
VCTS starting around 20-22Z for the Duval sites since confidence
is low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula through early next week, with this
feature maintaining a prevailing offshore wind flow across our
local waters. An evening wind surge on Saturday may bring speeds
up to Caution levels offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop inland early each afternoon and will progress eastward
across our local waters during the mid to late afternoon hours
each day. Strong to severe storms will be possible late in the
afternoon hours this weekend and early next week, especially
across the Georgia waters. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes
and torrential downpours. A frontal boundary will stall to the
northwest of our area towards midweek, with Atlantic high pressure
then expected to lift northward late next week. Seas of 2 to 3
feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next
several days.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds will likely result in a
low rip current risk at area beaches through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Breezy westerly surface and transport winds will prevail during
the daylight hours each day through Sunday. These breezy winds
will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon, with
pockets of marginally high values expected along the I-95 and U.S.
Highway 17 corridors in northeast and north central FL. Elevated
mixing heights this weekend will create areas of high daytime
dispersion values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  90 /  10  40  30  70
SSI  76  91  76  91 /  10  30  30  60
JAX  74  94  74  94 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  75  94  74  94 /  20  30  10  50
GNV  73  93  74  93 /   0  30  10  50
OCF  73  93  73  92 /   0  20   0  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$