205
FXUS62 KJAX 230619
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
119 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Late evening surface analysis depicts high pressure (1029
millibars) centered over the Deep South, with developing weak low
pressure situated along a frontal boundary over the western Gulf.
Aloft...fast zonal flow prevails locally downstream o a shortwave
trough that was traversing West Texas, with our evening sounding
at Jacksonville measuring west-southwesterly winds in excess of
100 knots above 300 millibars (around 30,000 feet). A swath of
high altitude cloud cover associated with a shortwave trough that
was exiting the Carolina coast has pushed east of our area, with
patches of mid-level cloudiness lingering across our area.
Meanwhile, mid and high altitude cloudiness was already increasing
upstream along the northern Gulf coast in association with the
aforementioned shortwave crossing western Texas and the developing
surface low across the western Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are
falling through the mid to upper 40s across inland southeast GA
and the Suwannee Valley, ranging to the low and mid 50s across
north central and coastal northeast FL as of 03Z. Dewpoints ranged
from the upper 30s for locations near the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers
in southeast GA, ranging to around 50 for north central and coastal
northeast FL.

Lingering mid-level cloud cover is expected to dissipate after
midnight, setting the stage for radiational cooling overnight.
Fair skies and light winds should allow for patchy to areas of
frost to form across inland portions of southeast GA, with patchy
fog formation possible towards sunrise along the U.S. Highway 301
corridor and possibly extending eastward to the I-95 corridor.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s for locations from
Waycross northward in southeast GA to the mid and upper 40s for
north central and coastal northeast FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Sunday will kick off with patchy to areas of frost over inland
southeast Georgia as temperatures in the morning are expected to
be in the mid 30s. Temperatures will warm up shortly after sunrise
and continue to warm into the 60s over southeast Georgia and
upper 60s to low 70s over northeast Florida. High pressure ridging
over the area will slowly give way to a low pressure system
coming in from the Gulf Sunday night, increasing chances for light
to moderate rain Sunday night (15-50%) into early Monday morning
(35-60%). Over night temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s
over southeast Georgia and upper 40s to low 50s over northeast
Florida. Temperatures will be slightly warmer along the coast.

Monday, low pressure is forecast to be positioned off south
Florida`s west coast by Monday morning. Light rain showers will
linger through the day with chances of 20-30% over southeast
Georgia and 30-60% over northeast Florida beginning in the morning
and diminishing by 10% by the afternoon. Showers will linger near
the coast after sunset and will clear out by Tuesday morning.
Daytime highs will be in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s
over southeast Georgia and upper 40s to low 50s over northeast
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Dry high pressure will fill in behind the passing low with temperatures
warming to near normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the
70s until a cold front makes its way into the area by the end of
the forecast period. Skies will be clear to mostly sunny with
cloud cover beginning to increase towards the end of the week as
moisture fills back into the area. The next chance for rain will
be toward the end of the forecast period as the cold front pushes
its way through the area. Temperatures will fall just below
normal with this frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

TEMPO MVFR to IFR possible early this morning at JAX, CRG, SSI,
GNV and SGJ with near calm winds and departing low clouds.
Advertised LIFR for VQQ through 12z.

After daybreak, increasing mid and high clouds from the west with
the approach of another low pressure system forming across the
Gulf. Multi-layered cloudiness`s increases further after 00z
through 06z with stratiform rainfall overspreading the terminals
through the night. Indicated -RA at GNV by 05z with other
terminals likely seeing the onset after 06z, just beyond this
forecast package.

Calm to Light and variable winds < 6 kts will prevail with a weak
pressure pattern in place for most locations. Could see more of a
ESE wind component at coastal terminals after 18z with weak sea
breeze moving inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1005 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

High pressure over the southeastern states will weaken as it
shifts northeastward towards the coastal Carolinas by Sunday
evening as weak low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico
slowly organizes and shifts east-southeastward towards the
Florida peninsula towards Monday afternoon. This feature will
spread showers across our local waters from Sunday night through
early Tuesday morning, with a few thunderstorms possible for the
offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida on Monday and Monday
evening. Low pressure will then cross south Florida and the Keys
on Monday evening before pivoting northeastward across the
northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday morning. This feature will then
strengthen as it accelerates northeastward towards Bermuda on
Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will then build along the
northern Gulf Coast in the wake of this departing low pressure
center on Tuesday and Tuesday night, becoming centered directly
over our local waters on Wednesday. High pressure will then shift
eastward off the southeastern seaboard by Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with southwesterly winds developing ahead of an
approaching cold front that will move southeastward, crossing our
area on Thursday night, likely accompanied by showers through
early Friday morning. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near
shore and offshore during the next several days.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds will combine with a lingering
northeasterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk,
mainly at the northeast FL beaches through Monday. A low risk is
then anticipated Tuesday through at least Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1005 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Light north-northwesterly transport winds early on Sunday morning
will shift to a more westerly direction during the afternoon hours
at inland locations, while onshore surface and transport winds
develop at coastal locations during the afternoon hours.
Increasing speeds during the afternoon hours will create fair
daytime dispersion values across inland southeast GA and portions
of inland northeast FL, with lighter speeds elsewhere resulting in
mostly poor values, with marginally low values possible across the
Suwannee Valley, where cloud cover will increase by late
afternoon. Surface and transport winds will then shift to
northeasterly on Monday, with abundant clouds and increasing rain
chances resulting in low daytime dispersion values across
southeast GA and along the I-10 corridor in northeast FL, with
poor values forecast elsewhere. Northerly surface and transport
winds early on Tuesday morning will shift to northwesterly by the
afternoon, with gradually strengthening transport speeds resulting
in fair to good daytime dispersion values area-wide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1005 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Minor flooding is expected to begin along upper portions of the
Altamaha River near the gauge at Baxley overnight, while water
levels are forecast to rise above flood stage near the gauge at
Charlotteville on Sunday night. Water levels will remain in a
minor flood at these gauges through at least midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  48  60  46 /  10  50  40  10
SSI  60  50  58  51 /   0  40  50  20
JAX  67  51  60  52 /   0  60  60  20
SGJ  65  54  62  56 /   0  70  70  40
GNV  71  52  63  53 /  10  80  70  30
OCF  73  54  65  56 /  10  80  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$