487
FXUS62 KJAX 121651
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1151 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...
...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
...BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ON FRIDAY...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Late morning surface analysis depicts low pressure (1001
millibars) developing over southeastern TX, with a wavy warm front
extending northeast of this developing storm system that extended
along the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers. Meanwhile, Arctic high
pressure (1030 millibars) was poised to strengthen as it builds
southward from the northern Rockies and the High Plains states in
the wake of this developing storm system. Aloft...stout ridging
has migrated eastward since yesterday and was now centered over
the southeastern Bahamas, with this feature continuing to create
southwesterly flow in the low and mid levels that veers to
westerly in the upper troposphere. This ridge continues to direct
shortwave activity around its northwestern periphery from the
Southern Plains states and across the Ozarks, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. Otherwise, a potent shortwave trough has emerged from the
lee side of the eastern Rockies and is now pivoting across the
Plains states, leaving a longwave trough in its wake across the
Intermountain West. Strengthening south-southwesterly low level
flow has scoured out most of the lower stratus ceilings and sea
fog that was in place earlier this morning in our unseasonably
warm and humid air mass, with some lingering stratus near the
lifting warm from along the Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers, or for
locations north of Alma. Temperatures at 17Z were rapidly rising
to the 75-80 degree range nearly area-wide, with dewpoints mostly
in the mid to upper 60s, as breezy surface winds have overspread
our region.

Breezy south-southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies this
afternoon will lead to near record high temperatures (see Climate
Section below for details) region-wide. An isolated shower cannot
be ruled out for locations north of Alma in interior southeast GA
closer to the lifting warm front. Highs will soar to the low and
mid 80s inland, with a few upper 80s possible in north central FL.
Cooler shelf waters and southerly winds this afternoon will likely
keep highs in the upper 70s for coastal southeast GA.

Low pressure will strengthen as it accelerates north-northeastward
across the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, with this
feature traversing the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys overnight,
reaching the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday morning. This
developing storm system will direct a strengthening cold front
into the southeastern states during the predawn and early morning
hours on Thursday, with a few showers possible towards sunrise
near the upper Altamaha/Ocmulgee Rivers, or for interior locations
to the northwest of Waycross. Otherwise, low stratus and possibly
some patchy dense fog will advect north-northeastward off
Apalachee Bay and into western portions of north central FL and
the Suwannee Valley during the predawn hours, possibly reaching
into interior southeast GA ahead of the approaching cold front
towards sunrise. Strengthening boundary layer winds will likely
prevent significant sea fog formation over the near shore waters,
with the possible exception being the waters adjacent to coastal
southeast GA overnight. Warm air advection will likely keep lows
in the mid 60s at most locations, which will challenge daily
record warm minimums for 2/13 (reference Climate section below for
details).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Thursday through Friday night...

Thursday...Morning fog over land should lift amid a southwesterly
prefrontal flow. That flow direction should keep sea fog from
seeping into the beaches. The main feature will be a slowing cold
front which will press southeastward through the forecast area
during the afternoon and evening. Given the slowing forward speed of
the front, surge in moisture (PWATs > 90th percentile), and
potential for training will elevate localized flood concerns, mainly
for interior SE GA. Realistic rainfall amounts will be around an
inch or so from the Suwannee Valley north into SE GA but locally
higher amounts up to 2-3 inches cannot be ruled out. Despite
increasing cloud cover, decent mixing will help boost temps into the
low 80s in NE FL, perhaps challenging daily high temp records.
Earlier onset of cloud/rain will keep highs in the 70s across SE GA.

Thursday night...Cloud cover will begin to scatter out as drier,
cooler air filters in behind the cold front. Temps will cool toward
typical climo for mid February. Low temp readings in the 40s in SE
GA and low to mid 50s in NE FL.

Friday...Strong and progressive surface ridge will tighten gradients
and lead to breezy conditions, especially at the coast with gusts up
to 30 mph. A coastal trough progged to develop through the day will
help instigate showers over the water which may push into the
coastal areas through the evening. Cloud cover may influence
temperatures Friday afternoon but cooler temps are expected. Onshore
flow will keep temperatures mild as another frontal system gathers
to the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

The aforementioned coastal trough will pivot inland and lift
northward with a warm front which may lead to showers through the
day Saturday. Warm southerly flow will boost temps back into  80s
and elevate sea fog potential once again ahead of an approaching
cold front. By Sunday, a dynamic frontal system will push eastward
and into the region. Instability will be lacking but an impressive
low level wind profile and deep shear will enhance potential for
strong winds with the prefrontal convection. Additionally, in
response to the deepening cyclone to the north, winds will become
gusty with gusts up to 40 mph; a Wind Advisory may need to be
considered.

Stronger cold air advection behind the front will lead to much
cooler conditions and potential light freezes and frost Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Fog is beginning to improve across the area, with low ceilings
lingering for a few more hours this morning. SSI will likely see
MVFR ceilings throughout the day today, and potentially lower
visibilities due to sea fog drifting onshore. Tonight, another
round of low IFR ceilings will impact most of the sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Low pressure organizing over the lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon will strengthen as it accelerates north-northeastward
tonight, reaching the eastern Great Lakes by early Thursday.
Southerly winds will strengthen this afternoon well ahead of this
developing storm system, with Caution conditions developing
offshore as speeds increase to 15-20 knots. Caution conditions
will then prevail offshore through Thursday afternoon, as seas
build to 4-6 feet. Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail near shore
through Thursday night. This storm system`s trailing cold front
will approach our local waters on Thursday afternoon, accompanied
by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Strong high pressure
building into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys in the wake of this
frontal passage will result in winds abruptly shifting to
northerly towards midnight on Thursday night, followed by gusty
northeasterly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout
our local waters on Friday and Friday night. High pressure will
then shift offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday morning,
resulting in winds shifting to southeasterly early in the day and
then southerly by the afternoon hours as a warm front lifts
northward from the Florida peninsula, possibly accompanied by a
few showers.

Another low pressure center will develop over the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys on Saturday evening, with this storm system
strengthening as it accelerates northeastward, reaching New
England by Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly winds will strengthen
late Saturday night and Sunday ahead of this storm system`s
approaching cold front, which will be accompanied by showers and
possibly a few strong thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
offshore on Sunday and Sunday night, with strong northwesterly
winds overspreading our local waters in the wake of this frontal
passage towards midnight.

Rip Currents: An persistent easterly ocean swell will keep a
moderate rip current risk in place at area beaches today.
Strengthening southwesterly winds on Thursday will create a low
risk at area beaches. Strong northeasterly winds and increasingly
rough surf on Friday will result in a high rip current risk at all
area beaches that will likely persist into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1152 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Southerly surface and transport winds will become breezy this
afternoon, with these winds combining with elevated mixing
heights to create good to high daytime dispersion values for
locations away from the immediate coastline. Breezy south-
southwesterly transport winds will continue overnight, with
elevated nighttime dispersion values expected for portions of
inland southeast GA and western portions of the Suwannee Valley.
Strong southwesterly transport winds and breezy surface speeds
will create good daytime dispersion values locations south and
east of Waycross and Live Oak on Thursday, with increasing cloud
cover and rainfall chances during the late morning and early
afternoon hours across the rest of inland southeast GA and western
portions of the Suwannee Valley resulting in fair daytime
dispersion values. Breezy northeasterly surface and transport
winds on Friday will create good daytime dispersion values area-
wide.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1152 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Record high maximum and minimum temperatures at our designated
climate sites through Thursday, February 13:

                2/12 highs  2/13 lows    2/13 highs
                ------------------------------------
Jacksonville    84/2020     67/1959     89/2020
Gainesville     86/2019     67/1932     85/2020
Alma, GA        81/2019     62/1959     80/2020
Craig Airport   84/2019     66/2020     86/2020

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  66  75  45 /  10   0  70  30
SSI  78  64  78  54 /   0   0  90  50
JAX  85  66  84  52 /   0   0  80  40
SGJ  82  66  83  60 /   0   0  50  20
GNV  85  65  84  56 /   0   0  70  20
OCF  86  66  85  60 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$