095
FXUS62 KJAX 261853
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Dangerous Cold this Week. Nightly Freezes Monday
  Night through Next Weekend. Tuesday Morning Wind Chills in
  the Teens to lower 20s. Inland Hard Freezes Likely.

- Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings through early
  Tuesday and Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Much colder and blustery compared to yesterday at this time as the
arctic cold front has pushed well to the southeast of the area.
As much as 25 deg colder at Lake City and Live Oak from Sunday
at 1 pm. Areas of low clouds linger over northeast FL, but
these will clear out in the next hour with sunny skies
developing for northeast FL, with southeast GA in sunny skies
but temps are in the 40s there.

Falling temperatures this afternoon with wind gusts peaking to about
30-35 mph, especially at the beaches. These breezy conditions will
linger into the overnight hours and slowly diminish, but leading to
cold conditions and increasing the risk of exposure/potential
hypothermia.

Temps will fall dramatically tonight with lows falling to the lower
20s across southeast GA and into the mid/upper 20s across northeast
FL. Combining these temperatures with the lingering wind, it`ll feel
like it`s in the teens and lower 20s for the entire area tonight.
There is a low chance of patchy black ice, but there`s low confidence
since the actual road temperatures may be above freezing for most
areas. However, the more prone areas might be elevated surfaces,
bridges and overpasses for example, if enough water remains
standing from the recent rainfall and the road temp will get to freezing.

Due to the dangerous wind chills forecast a Cold Weather Advisory
continues in addition to a Freeze Warning (Hard Freeze expected over
all of southeast GA and most of northeast FL). The exception to hard
freeze will southeast zones where the wind will hinder further temp
drop to "hard freeze". Make cold weather and preparations now
before the freeze sets in tonight and Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold and dry conditions persist through midweek as high pressure
builds over the region from the west.

Tuesday, cold and dry conditions will persist with daytime highs in
the mid 40s to lower 50s as clear skies remain throughout the day
over inland locations. Overnight Lows Tuesday night will be in the
mid 20s area-wide with cloud cover increasing throughout the
overnight hours into Wednesday. The Freeze Watch currently in place
will be upgraded either during the overnight package or the
following morning forecast package. Weaker winds will help to keep
wind chills in the 20s as well, but still near criteria levels for a
Cold Weather Advisory over NE FL on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Will access in the next forecast package. Widespread Frost will be
likely with the weaker winds.

Wednesday, temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to Tuesday,
but daytime highs will still over reach into the 50s with lower 50s
over SE GA and upper 50s over NE FL.  Cloudy skies will steadily
begin to clear through the day on Wednesday, with clear skies for
the most of Wednesday night. Overnight Lows will be in the upper
20s, with wind chills trending to remain above criteria levels for
any Cold Weather Advisory. Freeze products will again be needed for
Wednesday night as sub-freezing temperatures continue once again.
Another night of widespread Frost is expected with the near calm
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold and dry conditions persist through the end of the week. Freeze
products are expected to be needed each night through the forecast
period, with Cold Weather Advisories likely returning by the weekend
as sub-freezing temperatures are expected each evening.

Guidance suggest a Low pressure system developing off the east coast
by the upcoming weekend. With the potential for a coastal storm
developing in addition to cold temperatures expected during the
upcoming weekend, we could see some winterly precipitation for
portions of our inland locations this weekend. This will be in
addition to coastal and marine hazards as elevated winds develop
over the local waters. But this all depends on if/when/where any Low
pressure system develops for, if any, precipitation to make its way
into our area at the right time with the colder temperatures to see
any wintry precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Much colder airmass moving through the region with lingering areas
of MVFR cigs across northeast FL. Expect these lower cigs to push
out by 20z for the TAFs with VFR thereafter. Sfc winds, blustery
from 290 to 320 deg at 10-16ktG25kt into tonight and backing off and
less gusty after 06z-10z time frame. Prevailing winds will be
northwest to north (about 320 to 360 degrees) at 8-12 kt after 10z.
A few lingering gusts of 15-20 kt will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Northwest to north winds will increase into tonight in the wake of
a strong arctic cold front. Gale conditions are expected to develop
over the northeast Florida coastal waters with Small Craft
Advisories over the southeast Georgia coastal waters. Rising seas
will push toward 7 to 11 feet tonight before both winds and seas
begin to slowly relax. After a short break Tuesday and Wednesday, a
couple more cold fronts will push across the waters during the
second half of the week. The first front will pass Wednesday night
and the second Friday night with both fronts bringing periods of
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the local waters.

Rip Currents: Despite offshore flow, moderate risk is noted
for most areas beaches today. Elevated breakers are still expected,
especially south of St Augustine which may lead to a slightly higher-
end Moderate risk along that stretch of beach. Lighter winds (still
offshore) and falling surf heights will reduce risk more by Tuesday,
especially from Jax Beach northward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Dispersions Across Southeast Georgia Today
- Critically Low Rh Values Area-Wide Through Midweek

Cool and dry conditions continue through the upcoming week as high
pressure builds over the region. Gusty northwesterly winds will
begin to diminish and become more mild this evening. Dispersions
begin to trend downward Tuesday and Wednesday over NE FL, with lower
dispersions area-wide by Thursday as near calm winds develop.  With
drier air filtering into the region, critically low RH values on
Tuesday afternoon with values in the upper 10s to lower 20s area-
wide. RH values increase a bit by midweek, but will be still be near
or below critical levels as the dry air remains throughout the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Frost and freeze conditions will
develop during the overnight and early morning hours throughout the
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily records due to the arctic cold air
outbreak are below:

-------------------------------------
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
-------------------------------------

January 31:
- KGNV: 47/1909

February 1:
KJAX: 42/1900
KGNV: 41/1909

-------------------------------------
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
-------------------------------------

January 31:
- KCRG: 33/2019

February 1:
- KJAX: 24/1977
- KGNV: 25/1977
- KAMG: 22/1977
- KCRG: 29/1977

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  21  45  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  25  47  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  24  50  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  29  48  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  26  52  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  27  52  26  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
     132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
     340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
     633.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
     264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
     364.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
     364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452-
     454-472-474.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ452-454-472-474.

&&

$$