118
FXUS62 KJAX 042349
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
749 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface low pressure is located along FL/GA border across interior
SE GA and NE FL a this time as inverted trough extends from this
area of low pressure through interior SE GA to the Golden Isles
into coastal Carolina. This low pressure feature will track slowly
to the northeast with inverted trof axis lifting north of the
Altamaha during the overnight hours with southerly flow south
of the trof axis. A couple weak disturbances aloft will move into
the region very late this evening and overnight hours for a
couple more rounds of showers with very isolated and embedded
thunderstorms. Current forecast has trend on track.  In the very
short term, most showers and a clap of thunder or two will remain
mostly west of highway 301 this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface trough will lift across the area this afternoon and
evening, then north of area Tonight. High pressure will ridge
across south FL overnight.

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue through this
evening. A few strong storms will be possible. With loss of diurnal
heating, coverage will decrease somewhat overnight. Lows in the
lower 70s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The main weather-producing feature, the once cutoff upper low, will
continue its reintegration into the westerly midlatitude flow
through the end of the week. As this slowly unfolds, a weak trough
axis will linger across the area Thursday and then dissipating
through Friday. The weak low pressure that was previously outlooked
to develop along said trough and given a low chance (10%) of
tropical formation has since been downgraded (now 0%).

Through Thursday, though there may be a slight decrease in deep
moisture, high-grade precipitable water and sufficient diurnal
instability developing amid the southwesterly transport flow will
result in scattered convection along an early gulf breeze during the
late morning. Expanding t`storm coverage and the potential for
stronger, deeper convection capable of locally strong winds,
downpours (localized flooding), and frequent lightning is possible
along the I-95 corridor where the gulf and pinned Atlantic sea
breezes collide. The southwesterly steering should push convection
off the Atlantic coast during the mid to late afternoon. Though some
showers may continue along the lingering trough, the atmosphere
should be fairly worked over by the early evening.

On Friday, a further decrease in deep moisture and increasing
subsidence/warming aloft will decrease coverage some compared to
Thursday; however, a similar gulf-sourced southwesterly flow will
yield a similar convective trend Friday afternoon with the focus
for potentially strong storms along the I-95 corridor.

After a few cooler days under the upper low, increasing sunshine,
temperatures rising back into the 90s, and dewpoints in the low
70s, will push peak heat index readings back into the upper 90s
and low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

With the primary westerly and broad troughing deamplifying, zonal
flow will stay in place aloft while the surface ridge axis appended
to the Bermuda high will lay across south Florida. Given the
southwesterly flow pattern and medium to high-grade deep moisture
(generally above the 75th percentile), an active wet pattern will
remain in place with diurnal instability supporting sea breeze
activity. Primary threats will be successive days of heavy rainfall
which may accumulate to 2-4" along the I-95 corridor with locally
higher amounts possible. In addition to the daily thunderstorms,
temperature will be into the 90s each day resulting in heat index
values over 100-105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Showers with embedded thunderstorms this early evening near KSSI
with restrictions and gusty winds expected. Shower coverage has
decreased otherwise NE FL TAF Sites with limited convection
through 03z. Between 03z and 06z, another round of showers with
embedded thunderstorms are forecast for NE FL site with
restrictions in MVFR stratus. Late tonight, the forecast
challenge will be the timing and level of restrictive stratus.
MVFR to IFR conditions should remain across the terminals
overnight until daybreak Thursday. After sunrise, ceilings should
rise to MVFR with yet a couple rounds of showers and embedded
thunderstorms during the day Thursday with southwest winds of 10
to 15 knots with some higher afternoon gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

High pressure will be located to the northeast through Tonight, as
an inverted trough moves north along the southeast US coast. The
trough will center over the Carolinas on Thursday into Friday, as
high pressure ridge builds across southern FL. A cold front will
sink south toward the region over the weekend, and will stall to
the northwest into early next week. High pressure will be centered
to the east southeast over the weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The wet and stormy pattern will continue through the end of the week
with prevailing winds out of the southwest. An active and dominant
gulf sea breeze will result in showers and scattered storms by noon
each day through the weekend. Numerous storms and potential for
strong storms will be more likely along the I-95 corridor and St
Johns River basin for the next several days. Outside of lightning
ignitions in receptive fuel zones, significant fire weather
conditions are not expected.

Patchy fog in areas where heavy rains moistens the ground the day
prior will be possible for the next several mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  70  87  69 /  80  40  80  20
SSI  82  74  86  73 /  80  70  80  50
JAX  84  72  89  71 /  80  60  80  30
SGJ  84  72  88  72 /  70  70  90  40
GNV  85  71  89  71 /  80  70  80  10
OCF  84  72  89  71 /  70  80  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$