Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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929 FXUS62 KJAX 230058 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 758 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Little change in the forecast tonight with lows in the mid/upper 30s inland with light northwest winds. The dry airmass and the stirring winds will help hinder widespread frost formation for those inland areas, but continued to indicate potential of patchy to areas frost. Closer to the coast, the winds will stay up close to 5-9 mph and result in slightly warmer min temps toward the upper 30s and lower 40s. For the marine forecast, was considering dropping the SCA for the nearshore waters, but buoy 41008 has risen back to about 20 kt recently, and the HREF shows 20 kt wind probabilities reaching up to 70-100 percent by 03z tonight for most of the nearshore waters. Therefore, will keeping the nearshore SCA in place. Otherwise, rest of the marine forecast on track for winds and seas with only slight changes. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The trough will slowly move further away to the northeast tonight, as high pressure builds closer to the west northwest. Winds will diminish this evening, but enough of a gradient will persist to keep winds stirring through the night. This stirring of the winds will minimize the potential for frost tonight, despite temperatures falling into the middle 30s inland. Lows east of I95 will be milder with lows in the lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Cool and very dry northwesterly flow aloft will gradually back southwesterly through the weekend while a surface ridge builds from west and rests overhead Sunday. Temperatures will remain quite chilly through the weekend though afternoon highs will gradually warm from the low 60s Saturday to the lower 70s by Sunday. Overnight temperatures are likely to reach the lowest readings so far this Autumn on Sunday morning. Under light winds and clear skies, inland temperatures will all to the mid to low 30s across portions of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley; elsewhere, temperatures will be warmer, especially at the coast where lows will read in the low to mid 40s. Patchy or areas of frost will be more likely Sunday morning given the calm and near-freezing conditions. Frost development will be more likely across the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Rebounding temperatures are expected during the first half of next week as weakening frontal boundary approaches. That frontal boundary appears to stall across the area and may bring the potential for a few mornings of fog, especially Tuesday morning. A more robust frontal system, supported by a more amplified upper trough, will push into the area Thursday or Thursday night into Friday next week. As it does so, the moisture pooling ahead of it should be enough to support at least a low chance for rain showers. Ensemble soundings, specifically at KJAX, indicate (with fairly high confidence) that a stable airmass aloft will inhibit the potential for thunderstorm development. Temperatures will trend toward the upper 70s through the week before cold air plunges in from the north once again next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR. Light west northwest winds are expected Tonight through Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Trough of low pressure will move off to the northeast through Tonight, as high pressure builds from the west northwest. The high will build overhead Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. A high pressure ridge, centered to the east northeast will stretch across the region Sunday and Monday. A weak cold front will move into the region from the north Tuesday night. This boundary will weaken and dissipate, as ridging builds back Wednesday. Rip Currents: SE GA Low through Saturday NE FL Moderate Today, Low Saturday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through the afternoon due to breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds will trend weaker over the weekend as high pressure builds from the west. Temperatures and afternoon humidity will both trend upward through the weekend and into next week. A weak front will stall across the area during the middle part of next week before a stronger front plunges across the area to end the week. Chilly overnight temperatures may result in patchy fog tonight and again Sunday morning. The increasing moisture and stalling boundary will increase fog potential Tuesday and Wednesday morning next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 37 63 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 41 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 38 66 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 43 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 36 65 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 37 66 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$