297
FXUS62 KJAX 120719
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
319 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Beneficial Rainfall and Isolated Tstorms Today through Wednesday.
Strong Storms Possible for Portions of Northeast & North Central FL

- Small Craft Advisories the Waters North of St. Augustine This
morning Expanding south of St Augustine This Afternoon

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today through Wed

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore Northeast winds Today with Hazardous Beach Conditions.
  Small Craft Advisory conditions through this evening along
  with a high risk of Rip Currents at all area beaches.

- Beneficial Rainfall and Embedded Thunderstorms Today spreading
  along and north of the I-10 Corridor Through late Morning and
  Northeast Florida this Afternoon.

- Strong to Isolated Severe T`storm potential over the Southern St
  Johns river basin and Flagler/St Johns county coast.

Cold front is sinking south slowly towards the FL/GA state line
early this morning with strong isentropic lift over the area as
a southern stream mid/upper level shortwave trough lags behind
the base of a northern stream trough currently moving off the of
the Carolina Outer Banks. An area of low pressure is just east
of the mouth of the Mississippi river, slowly moving east to the
NE Gulf waters.

Showers have filled in from west to east along and north of
SR-26 and SR-20 to the FL/GA state line with embedded isolated
T`storms. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s remain south of
the front with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s while cooling
to the mid to upper 60s north of US 82 where a surge of NE
winds 10-15 gusting to 25 mph are bringing drier and cooler
airmass southward along the GA coast while winds are near calm
south of I-10.

Through sunrise, embedded T`storms will continue to develop
along I-10 and into SE GA as the cold front sags into NE FL with
rainfall rates to 1-2 inches per hour. The showers will become
widespread through the late morning hours along and north of
I-10 to US82 and numerous over NE FL south of I-10, then become
widespread this afternoon as the front sags into north central
FL midday and into central FL by this afternoon.

Embedded scattered T`storms will enhance rain rates within the
shield of rain as the low pressure area moves east near the
coast of the FL panhandle towards the Nature coast. An isolated
strong to severe elevated T`storm is possible across Flagler/St
Johns/Putnam/Marion counties as 35-40 knots of 0-6km shear and
PWATs above the 90th percentile may support gusty wet downburst
potential up to 40-60 mph. Otherwise breezy NE winds 15-20 mph
will remain at the coast with gusts to 30 mph and trending
10-15mph inland with gust to 25 mph. Highs will be below normal
due to the clouds with upper 60s to low 70s over SE GA, low 70s
along I-10, and mid to upper 70s southward with isolated low 80s
south of Ocala to Flagler Beach line.

Tonight, widespread showers will slowly shift off the Atlantic coast
into the coastal waters with scattered to numerous coastal convergent
showers ongoing well into the predawn morning hours Wednesday as
the mid/upper level trough axis shifts into the waters to the east
of the FL peninsula. Widespread rainfall totals will be 1.00-2.5
inches across the areas well north of US 82 near the Altamaha
river, but locally heavier rainfall totals of 3-5 inches are
possible where stronger T`storms occur. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy with low stratus clouds through sunrise Wednesday.
Winds will remain NE 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the
coast where winds will turn more easterly by dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Widely Scattered T`storms Wednesday along the Atlantic Seabreeze.

Drier weather conditions will settle into place after Wednesday as
weakening high pressure moves off to the east and an advancing cold
front presses in from out of the northwest and crosses over the
forecast area by Thursday. Clearing skies, northwesterly winds, and
drier air will be in place on Thursday as high pressure conditions
settle in over the region by Thursday afternoon. High temperatures
for midweek will rise into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low
temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 60s for inland
areas and in the upper 60s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend.

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

Predominantly dry weather conditions will continue through Friday
and Saturday with potential for isolated to scattered showers to
increase on Sunday as high pressure drifts towards the northeast and
prevailing flow shifts about to become more onshore from out of the
east. High temperatures going into the weekend and the beginning of
next week will rise to be well above the seasonal average with max
temps expected to rise into the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Low end MVFR ceilings at SSI will become IFR through 09Z with VFR
conditions across the Northeast FL TAF sites quickly trending to
MVFR ceilings 08-12Z. A cold front moving south across the area is
bringing a surge of northeasterly winds south along the coast with
15-20 knots gusting to 20-25 knots at SSI spreading into the coastal
and duval county TAF sites by 08-10Z. Have tempo restrictions for
IFR ceilings and heavier rain showers developing along and north of
the front as it moves south of the terminals today with a few waves
of heavy showers late this morning and again this afternoon.
Potential for strong to isolated severe T`storms near SGJ 20-24Z
this afternoon.

Winds will increase to 12-15 knots inland with gusts to 20 knots and
15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots at the coastal sites. All sites
will remain IFR during the heavier showers this afternoon at the
JAX/VQQ/CRG/SSI TAF sites, but lift to MVFR at GNV/SGJ. VFR levels
return to GNV after 00Z and remain low end MVFR around 1.0 kft at
the JAX/VQQ/CRG/SSI/SGJ with winds decreasing to 5-10 knots with
prevailing showers at SSI and SGJ and diminished coverage over
Northeast FL sites.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front over the Southeast Georgia waters will move into
the Northeast Florida waters through the morning hours today.
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will overspread our
local waters into this afternoon and this evening with periods
of heavier downpours possible at times. High pressure will build
to the north today with a surge of northeasterly winds with
Small Craft Advisory conditions developing throughout the waters
this morning north of St Augustine and expanding southward this
afternoon. Winds will turn easterly into Wednesday morning with
decreasing winds and seas. Showers may linger through Wednesday
before another high pressure center builds southward from the
Great Lakes region late this week with drier weather conditions
into the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:

A high risk is forecast at area beaches Today due to breezy onshore
winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph surging along the Northeast FL
and Southeast Georgia Beaches. Surf heights will build to 2-4 feet
Today at the southeast GA beaches and 3-5 feet at the Northeast
FL beaches. These surf heights will persist into Wednesday and
keep an elevated risk in place at all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday
- Near Critical MinRH Values Thursday and Friday over Inland
  Southeast Georgia


Showers and storms will continue to develop through today and
tonight as a cold front pushes through the area. Winds will
primarily be from the northeast-east today, with stronger winds
along the coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely
along the sea breeze mergers during the afternoon hours. Activity
will begin to lessen by this evening, with coastal showers/storms
expected to build overnight tonight and into early Wednesday morning
with isolated showers/storms expected to build along the Atlantic
seabreezes over the US-17 and I-95 corridors. Dry cold front moves
through Thursday, high pressure will build overhead Friday and
Saturday. Drier airmass arriving on Thursday and increasing
transport winds ahead of and behind the dry cold front will create
widespread high afternoon dispersions. MinRH values will fall to
near critical levels Thursday and Friday over inland Southeast
Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds expected in
and near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  60  81  61 /  70  30  20   0
SSI  72  69  79  67 /  90  80  60   0
JAX  73  65  81  64 /  90  80  70   0
SGJ  74  69  81  68 /  80  80  70   0
GNV  75  65  83  64 /  90  70  60  10
OCF  80  67  83  66 /  90  60  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-
     452.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ470-472.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ474.

&&

$$