483
FXUS62 KJAX 310802
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
302 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface high is well east of the forecast area, with a 1002 mb surface
low over Missouri and a cold front trailing southward to the lower
MS Valley. The low and front are expected to shift fairly quickly
east today. At 2 AM, low level flow is light southerly at the
surface, with moderately southerly flow just above the sfc, and may
keep the airmass a bit stirred up for fog development. Still,
with dewpoint depressions less than 3 deg and light winds, some
dense fog will likely develop by sunrise. With stratus and fog
expected to dissipate by mid to late morning, a warm southerly
flow will help boost temps ahead of the cold front. Some sea fog
and stratus may briefly stay intact over the nearshore waters
through about 2-3 pm, potentially a little longer before dissipating
by early evening hours. Over land, max temps today are forecast to
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. These temps are near records
(see climate section below). Have adjusted max temps up a bit
from prior forecast. South winds up to 10-15 mph with gusts of
20-30 mph expected today.

Tonight, the models have been in pretty good agreement showing
the cold front moving into the forecast area. Breezy south-
southwest winds are expected ahead of the front. PWATs will rise
to about 1.5- 1.8 inches as the front makes it into the area.
Still good upper level support for numerous to widespread showers
and possibly a couple of embedded thunderstorms. The forcing may
be a bit stronger than what models were showing a coupe of days
ago and this was indicated in radar reflectivities being a bit
higher. Still, rainfall amounts will be fairly low given the pace
of the front, but POPs were increased from the prior forecast.
POPs are about 60-80 percent over most of southeast GA and
trending to chance POPs over northeast FL. The front will continue
to push south and east with some lingering showers possible over
the southern counties Saturday morning. Some patchy fog will be
possible for Alachua and Marion counties for a brief period early
Saturday morning. Lows in the 50s to near 60 expected overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

High pressure will build in over the region this weekend resulting
in dry weather conditions, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and
mild winds. There is potential for early morning fog formation
over the weekend. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the
mid to upper 70s. Overnight low temperatures for southeast Georgia
will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s during this period with
min temps for northeast Florida ranging between the mid and upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Dry weather conditions will continue into the coming week as high pressure
drifts eastward while ridging extends over the forecast area from
out of the Atlantic. Pattern of early morning fog development is
expected to continue through this period. Temperatures will warm
to be well above the seasonal average next week with daily high
temps reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

TAFs are VFR so far and little indication of any stratus or fog in
the forecast area at this time. Thus, with guidance less bullish
on lowering conditions, have cut back on the prevailing chances
of fog and stratus and showed TEMPO groups. Going with chances of
MVFR for JAX, GNV, and CRG around 9z-13z, and low conditions at
IFR or lower for VQQ, SGJ, and SSI. As winds increase during the
morning and aftn, any low clouds and fog should dissipate fairly
quickly with VFR returning. Southerly winds will increase to
about 9-14 kt with gusts of about 18-23 kt this aftn, and which
may continue into the evening hours. Cold front approaches from
the west tonight, but soonest a particular TAF being affected by
the associated showers will be at SSI by the 03z-06z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Southerly winds will increase as a cold front approaches the area
today. Before that, patchy to areas of sea fog are forecast to
develop over the nearshore waters early this morning. The fog
should dissipate by 1-3 pm this aftn. By this afternoon, south
winds of about 15-20 kt are forecast offshore, with these winds
spreading to nearshore waters this evening. The cold front will
cross over the waters tonight, and be just south of the area just
after sunrise Saturday morning. The potential for small craft
advisory (due to the south- southwest winds) for offshore waters
tonight looks too marginal to hoist at this time. Sfc high will
build to the north of the waters over the weekend resulting in
light moderate easterly flow. The sfc ridge drift south and be
over the region into early next week resulting low winds and
seas. Main forecast concern after tonight will be the potential
for some sea fog along the coast later in the weekend and early
next week.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents expected
through Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE....

The high today will be close to record high at Alma GA, within
about 2-3 deg, so we may tie it there. The other sites look a bit
too far from reaching the record. Warm max temps next week could
near records once again.

Record High Temperatures for Today, January 31st:

KJAX: 86/2023
KCRG: 85/2023
KAMG: 82/2002
KGNV: 85/2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  52  71  46 /   0  80   0   0
SSI  73  53  67  50 /   0  60   0   0
JAX  82  56  72  50 /   0  40   0   0
SGJ  80  58  69  54 /   0  20  10   0
GNV  81  57  75  51 /   0  40   0   0
OCF  81  59  76  55 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$