043
FXUS62 KJAX 231454
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
954 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Any patchy to areas of fog quickly dissipated by about 830 AM this
morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure is over the area this morning
and temps are climbing through the 50s already as a warm advection
pattern has occurred over the past 24 hours. Notably, 850 mb
temps increased by 7 degrees compared to 12z Sat.

The forecast for today has not changed by much. Forecast highs still
expected to increase to the 60s and lower 70s given the current
JAX sounding and guidance. The coolest temps will be across the
Suwannee Valley through into southeast GA as cloudiness will continue
to increase ahead of several mid level disturbances approaching
from the west today. Rain chances still expected after about 4 pm
to about 15-20 percent over the Suwannee Valley area late today.
Then, for most areas tonight into Monday morning, areas to widespread
rain showers. We made minor adjustments to the sky coverage and
POPs from late aftn into Monday morning, but little else needs
adjustment at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 213 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Cool morning with areas of inland fog, some patchy dense at times
through sunrise. After sunrise, high clouds will progressively
overspread the area form the west through the day with increasing
mid level clouds into the afternoon with the approach of another
Gulf low. Rain chances increase from the west ahead of this low
this evening, overspreading the local area after midnight tonight
into Monday, with the higher rain chances south of the Interstate
10 corridor of NE FL and decreasing rain chances northward across
SE GA. Rainfall accumulations tonight are generally expected to be
less than 0.10" for most locations, with 0.10-0.25" near and west
of the FL Interstate 75 corridor. Higher end rainfall potential
for I-75 west is 1-2 inches after midnight tonight (less than 10%
chance of occurrence). Airmass is too stable to support
thunderstorms locally.

Despite the increased cloudiness today, still expected near to
above normal temperatures with mid level warm air advection
pattern under SW winds aloft ahead of the approach low with highs
in the low 60s across inland SE GA to the low 70s across our
north-central FL zones. Tonight, with rainfall overspreading the
area, mild lows will range in the mid 40s across SE GA to the mid
50s across NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Showers will be ongoing on Monday as the low off the west coast
of FL crosses the peninsula into the Atlantic. Upper support in
association with this surface low will maintain waves of scattered
to numerous showers moving across the area through the day.
Heavier showers will likely remain south of the I-10 corridor
where rainfall accumulations could be around an inch. Showers
taper off from west to east Monday night. High pressure builds
across the northern Gulf on Tuesday bringing warmer and drier
weather through mid-week. Patchy inland fog will likely return in
the early morning hours next week. Below seasonable temperatures
on Monday rise to around seasonable on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Warmer and drier weather continues Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures rising above seasonable with highs in the mid/upper
70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A cold front moves
through the SE US on Thursday and then across the area Thursday
night into Friday. Weak moisture return ahead of the front will
limit coverage of showers. For now, have isolated to scattered
showers in the forecast for Thursday night into early Friday. High
pressure then builds back into the region into the weekend. Slight
cool down on Friday in the wake of the front but the airmass
quickly moderates back to seasonable on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Shallow ground fog this morning impacted SSI, JAX, CRG, VQQ and is
on the cusp of impacting GNV and SGJ through 12-13z. Prevailing
MVFR to IFR conditions were advertised briefly with a transition
to VFR by 13z for all terminals as low clouds with bases 4-6 kft
agl overspread the area from the west this morning. VFR conditions
are expected through 00z with light northerly winds generally < 6
kts for most terminals today except for SSI, CRG and SGJ where a
late afternoon sea breeze will bring ESE winds 10 kts or less.

Multi-layered cloudiness`s increases further after 00z through
06z with stratiform rainfall overspreading the terminals through
the night. Indicated -RA at GNV by 05z with other terminals after
06z-12z and increasing MVFR to IFR ceiling probabilities through
12z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

High pressure builds north of the region today as another area of
low pressure forms across the northeast Gulf. This slow moving low
approaches south Florida tonight into Monday and crosses the
region Monday night into Tuesday bringing isolated thunderstorm
potential. Surface high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf
mid- week then shifts east of the region Thursday as the next cold
front approaches.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL beaches through
Mon & low risk for SE GA beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 213 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

River flood warnings continue for Baxley & Charlotteville along
the Altamaha River. Both locations are forecast to rise into Minor
flood stage within the next 12-18 hrs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  46  59  45 /   0  60  40  10
SSI  62  49  59  50 /   0  40  50  30
JAX  67  49  62  51 /  10  60  60  30
SGJ  66  52  64  54 /  10  70  70  50
GNV  71  51  65  53 /  10  80  70  30
OCF  73  53  68  55 /   0  80  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$