713
FXUS62 KJAX 221730
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
130 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current forecast looks on track. Slight changes to the temps to
start off today but otherwise, mostly sunny to occasionally partly
sunny skies with mainly mid to high clouds rotating through the
area. Some cumulus to form later in the afternoon but cap in the
airmass will likely keep a lid on any convective development from
the sea breeze boundaries. Max temps still hitting near 90 inland
areas, and lower to mid 80s coast.

Marine forecast looks on track with little change needed.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

High pressure centered NE of the region across western Atlantic
waters is extending a weak surface ridge axis over our area with
weak southerly flow above the surface and light southerly winds
5-10 mph at the coast diminishing to near calm inland. Not
anticipating much fog, with only some patchy fog far inland over
the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s inland
and low 70s at the coast will cool another 5 degrees by sunrise.

High thin clouds are stretching over the area as moisture aloft
rounds the NW edge of a ridge aloft and as this feature sinks more
south over the Bahamas, these high clouds should continue to fan
over the region. The ridge will sink south in response to a compact
progressive shortwave exiting to the north, leaving a front to
stall over the Carolinas and north GA. Despite some incoming
shortwave energy late this afternoon, appears too dry for any
isolated showers, keeping only silent pops for SE GA.

Southerly winds 5-10 mph late this morning turn breezy from the
southeast 10-15 mph, gusting 20-25 mph behind Atlantic seabreeze
passage as it moves onshore midday, and across US-17 by mid
afternoon before weakening near highway 301 where it intersects
the Gulf seabreeze a little past sunset. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to near 90 west of I-95/St Johns river cooling to mid
80s for I-95 corridor and low 80s at the coast in the onshore
flow.

High clouds should thin out tonight after midnight with patchy fog
developing along/west of I-95. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s
inland to upper 60s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday night)...

A pattern change will occur as mid level moisture sourced out of the
gulf bumps PWAT into the typical range this time of year, which is
just over an inch. Sea breeze thunderstorm potential will rise
through the remainder of the week amid anomalously warm daily
high temperatures, possibly near records.

Wednesday // A weak pressure pattern will promote gulf and atlantic
sea breeze development, colliding west of the hwy 301 corridor. A
passing impulse aloft will aid in slight cooling aloft, encouraging
diurnal instability. Expanded the area of isolated/scattered
thunderstorm coverage but additional PoP increases may be necessary.
Temperatures will push close to 90 degrees inland helping drive the
Atlantic sea breeze. Convective activity will wane with the loss of
heating after sunset.

Thursday-Friday // The Atlantic sea breeze will be dominant Thursday
with a short-lived period of easterly steering winds but weaker flow
along a low level ridge axis will allow the gulf sea breeze to push
inland again. Despite gradual warming in the mid levels, sufficient
instability, as denoted by LREF soundings, will promote at least
widely scattered showers and isolated storms along the sea breezes,
especially along the late afternoon merger. High temperatures will
peak in the upper 80s each afternoon and potentially touch the
low 90s along the I-75 corridor. Overnight, lows will be in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Tuesday)...

Temperatures continue to rise, leading to moderate heat risk over
the weekend with impacts more likely to the young, elderly, and
vacationers who aren`t used to this type of heat coming out of
Winter. Changes this weekend will surround the evolution of a
weakening frontal boundary and its prefrontal trough which appear to
pass through Saturday night through Sunday; however, ensemble spread
is quite large thus leading to low confidence in the forecast late
this weekend and early next week. Still, PWATs are expected to
remain steady and, amid the mini heat wave, diurnal instability will
continue chances for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms
through Monday along the sea breezes and frontal features.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The TAF period will feature VFR conditions through the period
except for MVFR fog restrictions at VQQ by 07z through 13Z.
Otherwise, mainly SCT cumulus at or above 4 kft through this
evening with south to southeast winds of 5-12 kt, strongest from
the southeast for the coastal TAFs. Winds become light south
tonight and increase from the south-southeast near 10 kt on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic will create breezy south
to southeasterly winds as daily seabreeze circulations develop
each afternoon over the near shore waters with low seas. Late
this weekend, a backdoor cold front will sink into the waters
from the north with elevated northeast to easterly winds and
increasing seas.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will be in effect
for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia beaches today and
Wednesday due to the onshore winds and surf 2-3 feet. Stronger
rip currents can form near piers and jetties. Always swim near
a lifeguard.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Under influence of high pressure, temperatures will trend warmer
than normal this week with increasing thunder chances by Wednesday
as instability increases. From Wednesday through the end of the
week, isolated thunderstorm chances are expected mainly across
southeast GA through the week but storm development is possible
anywhere along the sea breeze, including inland NE FL where fuels
are at critical levels.

While humidity is expected to stay above 30%, the lack of rain,
dry fuels, and breezy (10-15 mph) afternoon sea breezes will lead
to an elevated wildfire risk.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

WED 4/23THU 4/24 FRI 4/25

JAX 92 (1970) 93 (1999) 92 (1958)

GNV92 (1970)94 (1999)93 (1896)

AMG94 (1968)93 (1999)91 (1958)

CRG89 (2020)92 (1999)91 (2006)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  88  63  86 /   0  30  20  40
SSI  67  81  68  80 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  63  87  64  85 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  64  83  66  82 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  62  90  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  61  91  63  90 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$