Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
530 FXUS62 KJAX 231212 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 812 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Seasonably Hot Conditions Continue this Week Heat Index 102-108. Possible Heat Advisories this Weekend and Early Next Week - Moderate Rip Current Risk through Thursday at Area Beaches - Isolated Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms through Friday. Best Chances for the Suwannee Valley and I-75 Corridor Today. Scattered TStorms this Weekend & Next Week && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 19Z. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop during the mid to late afternoon hours along inland moving sea and river breezes, with convection generally being steered westward towards the I-75 corridor towards 00Z. We maintained vicinity thunderstorm coverage at GNV after 20Z, but confidence in coverage was too low to insert a PROB30 group for this TAF cycle. Confidence was only high enough to include vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals after 19Z, and dry conditions are expected at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals. South or southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots at the coastal terminals through around 16Z, followed by surface winds shifting to east or southeasterly following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots by 18Z. Southerly surface winds will develop by 14Z elsewhere, with speeds increasing to around 5 knots by 15Z. Surface winds will shift to easterly or southeasterly around 10 knots at the Duval County terminals by 21Z, while surface winds at GNV shift to southwesterly at 5-10 knots following the passage of the Gulf sea breeze boundary by 21Z. Southeasterly surface winds will then shift to southerly this evening while diminishing at the regional terminals. && .MARINE... High pressure will diminish winds over the waters through the end of the week. A frontal boundary will then stall north of the Georgia waters this weekend, with this feature potentially increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Prevailing west winds are expected by Sunday and Monday, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds across the near shore waters to southeast during the afternoon hours. Rip Currents: Surf heights continue to lower today, however a lower end Moderate risk following the passage of the afternoon sea breeze is expected at all local area breaches. Similar conditions are expected Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND on SUNDAY Tropical Storm Bertha will be well to the west Today as Bermuda high pressure stretches across central FL. Light and variable winds will increase behind the Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon as it pushes towards highway 301 through the afternoon, turning winds ESE 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Widely scattered thunderstorms will form along the inland moving seabreeze boundary along and west of highway 301 where higher moisture aloft will reside. A frontal boundary to the north of the area will sink southwards slowly Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for thunderstorms. Increasing transport winds will support high daytime dispersions across inland areas on Sunday. Min RH values will be 35-40 percent this afternoon over inland Southeast Georgia. Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected for the next several nights. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 75 97 75 / 10 20 20 10 SSI 90 80 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 95 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 89 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 96 73 96 75 / 30 30 10 10 OCF 95 74 96 75 / 20 20 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$