300
FXUS62 KJAX 030614
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
114 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding along the Atlantic Coast & Portions of the
  St.Johns River Basin Begins Tuesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches. High
  Risk Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches on Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisory for the Northeast FL Waters Monday -
  Tuesday AM

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

A strong mid to upper trough is noted from the Carolinas southward
to north FL with associated mid to high clouds over the eastern
zones. Light sprinkles are lifting out to the northeast quickly as
the upper level jet close to 100 kt moves off to the northeast.
The surface cold front is nearly aligned northeast to southwest
with the cloud cover and should be pushing off the coast by
sunrise as the strong mid/upper trough pivots eastward during the
day. This will result in clearing skies during the day with max
temps rising to the upper 60s to the lower 70s under cool
advection from northwest to north winds up to 10-15 mph.

Tonight, winds become light northerly and surface high pressure
will move into the area and clear skies are expected. Attempted
to undercut some of the guidance lows a bit, if not on the cooler
side of guidance lows. Lows in the lower to mid 40s inland and
lower 50s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Dry conditions will prevail through midweek as high pressure shifts
in from the west and becomes centered over the Carolinas after
the cold front pushes off towards the Atlantic. Northeasterly flow
develops across the area, with breezy conditions over the local
waters and towards coastal locations. Clearer skies will bring
warmer temperatures compared to Monday. Daytime highs in the mid
70s for most locations, while coastal locations in the upper 60s
to lower 70s as onshore northeast flow develops bringing in cooler
marine air. Tuesday evening, SE GA and northern Suwannee Valley
will have lows in the lower to mid 40s, while locations west of
the the St Johns River in the lower 50s and coastal locations in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The warming trend continues on Wednesday as daytime highs will
rise into the upper 70s for most inland locations, with the
warmest temperatures along north central FL counties, with
daytime highs in the lower 80s. Northeasterly onshore flow will
again bring cooler temperatures to coastal locations with daytime
highs around the mid 70s. Similar overnight temperatures to
Tuesday night with SE GA and northern Suwannee Valley in the mid
to upper 40s, with the rest of the area in the 50s with warmer
temps along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Dry conditions continue past midweek as dry air remains overhead.
Mostly clear skies, becoming partly cloudy near the end of the
week, will allow for temperatures to reach into the the upper 70s
to lower 80s across most locations, while onshore flow will keep
coastal locations in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.
Models are hinting at another cold front to push towards the SE
CONUS during the later part of the upcoming weekend into the
following week. Ahead of the front winds will shift to become
southerly- southwesterly on Friday, which would allow for some
moisture to move northward from the south, but precipitation
chances still remain low. Warmer temperatures on Saturday,
particularly for locations in north central FL which could see
highs reach into the mid 80s, while locations north of the I-10
corridor in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds shift to westerly
with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Broken to overcast high clouds over the area at 06z will be moving
out to the east and northeast early this morning as a cold front
and associated mid level trough move through the region. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail. Light northwest winds will become north-
northwest to about 10 kt during the day, with gusts near 15-20 kt
possible. Winds become lighter from the north and northwest
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Northwest to north winds increase to around the small craft
advisory (SCA) levels by later this morning with slightly lighter
winds over the GA waters keeping exercise caution headline in
effect there. Winds may not be a strong as prior forecast and so
have adjusted hazards a bit. It`s possible we could end the SCA
sooner if current trends continue of lower winds and therefore
lower seas. Winds become lighter by Wednesday as high pressure
builds over the area which lasts into Thu. Little bit more of an
easterly flow into Thu night into Fri, but likely not supportive
of any SCA headline and probably no exercise caution headline.

Rip currents: Moderate risk mostly expected for northeast FL
beaches today, with a lower rip current risk for southeast GA
beaches given the parallel or slight offshore wind flow. Higher
surf potential for Tuesday, especially for the northeast FL waters
so a higher risk of rip currents, rougher surf, and strong north
to south long-shore current anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Northwesterly- northerly breezy transport winds, with slightly
higher speeds along the coast, will bring Good Dispersions for most
locations this afternoon. Winds shift to become northeasterly on
Tuesday after the passage of a front on Monday, but lower transport
winds over SE GA will bring dispersion values in the Fair range
across far inland SE GA. By Wednesday, lower transport winds across
SE GA and NE FL will likely lead to Poor to Fair dispersions for
much of the area. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for much of the
upcoming week as high pressure builds over the region. Min RH values
will range from the 30s to 40s for SE GA and the 40s to 50s for NE
FL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING...
Issued at 110 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The next perigean spring tide will occur at the full moon on
Wednesday. Nov 4th-7th is the time period of the peak in predicted
astronomical tides. Guidance shows the combination of the north-
northeast winds and these peak astronomical tides push coastal
areas into minor flood levels mainly along the coast and partly
into the St Johns River Basin. A coastal flood advisory appears
likely. Current guidance suggests from downtown JAX southward may
escape minor flooding levels, but we will continue to monitor water
levels and guidance forecasts. Total water levels may peak around
the 1.5 to 2 foot range above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) by
the Tue- Wed time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  42  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  51  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  71  46  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  71  53  74  61 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  72  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  72  47  77  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ452-454-472-474.

&&

$$