338
FXUS62 KJAX 050514
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
114 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the northeast and
east during the overnight hours and into early Saturday morning
as high pressure to the north extends eastward into the Atlantic.
Showers and possible thunderstorms, initially forming near the
coast, will continue to press inland through the rest afternoon
with the diurnal sea breeze with convection forming near and west
of the I-75 corridor later this evening. High temperatures for
today will reach up into the mid 80s over southeast Georgia and
into the upper 80s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures
will drop down into the lower 70s over inland areas and in the
mid to upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

The general pattern looks to remain the same over the weekend
with low pressure trying to develop over the SAN Gulf of Mexico
and high pressure located to the north and northeast of the
forecast area. Moisture remains elevated above normal with PWATs
near and just above 2 inches with low level flow from the east and
northeast. This will certainly sustain the moist flow and maintain
low level convergence along the coastal areas for showers for any
time of day. Given the broad easterly flow up through 700 mb showers
and potentially a few storms will push well inland over the
course of the weekend, with thunder probabilities highest during
the aftn and early evening. Better forcing aloft begins to impinge
on the area as well for later on Saturday and especially on
Sunday. Locally heavy downpours expected on Saturday and probably
more so for Sunday given better mid level troughing over the area
and a 50-60 kt upper level jet over central GA. Max temps will
trend a bit lower this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Models and forecast progs show sfc low developing over the
southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday while shifting it
eastward to the FL peninsula Tue-Tue night. The NHC has upped the
chances a bit from 40 to 50 percent development into a tropical
cyclone over the 7 day period...so this system bears watching. The
current trends show it traversing over the central or southern FL
peninsula by Wednesday and tracking it offshore of the FL east
coast on Thursday. Still a high degree of uncertainty on intensity
and track forecast of this system during this mid week time
frame. This system also may interact with one or two frontal
boundaries over the FL peninsula, which may accentuate rainfall
amounts into our forecast area. In any event, residents should maintain
awareness of this system as model forecasts are differing with regard
to placement of the low and thereby the rainfall footprint. Overall,
we continued to show some consistency with the higher rainfall
chances across the northeast FL zones Mon through Thu. If models
are correct, we may see rainfall chances diminish by sometime Thur
or at least Fri.

Temperatures will trend near to below normal as low level thickness
lower and increased chances for shower activity and northeast
flow. Lows will range in the mid to upper 50s northern most zones to
lower 60s. A refreshing taste of fall like weather!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Stratus is expected to lower through the night, resulting in
restrictions at area TAF sites. Showers will move onshore Saturday
morning, and affect area TAF sites. Stratus will rise with diurnal
heating Saturday morning, but restrictions still expected in stratus
and showers through the afternoon hours. Prevailing VFR conditions
forecast beginning Saturday evening, but brief restrictions will
still possible in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

High pressure will be north of the region through Saturday, with
a weak trough over the coastal waters. The high will build more
toward the northeast Sunday, with weak troughing remaining. High
pressure will be located to the north northwest during the first
half of next week, as a boundary develops and lays out across
central FL.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk is likely to continue into
part of the weekend given the onshore flow and measured sea
heights nearshore of 3-5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Rivers: Major river flooding is forecast to impact the Alapaha River
in Statenville late this weekend. Minor river flooding continues
on the Altamaha River basin. The Satilla is forecast to rise into
Minor stage at Atkinson early next week. As flood waters travel
down the Suwannee River, backwater flooding up the Santa Fe
including at Three Rivers Estates is this weekend.

Tidal Flooding: The combination of persistent onshore flow and the
approach of the annual high Spring Tides mid-month will continue
to elevate local water level departures for tidal locations this
weekend and next week. Most locations will rise into Action stage
today, but by the weekend a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed
especially for portions of the St. Johns River where tides will
become trapped and seiche north to south from JAX to Welaka.
Stronger onshore flow next week will likely raise tidal flooding
levels further and we will monitor for potential Coastal Flood
Watch potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  68  82  63 /  30  10  20  10
SSI  81  72  81  71 /  50  40  40  20
JAX  83  72  82  70 /  60  50  60  50
SGJ  85  73  82  73 /  60  50  70  50
GNV  85  72  81  70 /  50  30  60  50
OCF  87  73  82  71 /  40  20  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$