Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
925 FXUS62 KJAX 041743 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 143 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk through the Weekend - Daily Heat Index near 105 through the Weekend - Daily Thunderstorms Localized Flood Risk through Monday. Today: Local Rainfall Amounts to near 4 inches. Possible localized - Patchy Inland Late Night & Early Morning Fog This Weekend && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights Today and Tonight: - Local instances of Flash Flooding rest of today due to Numerous Showers & Thunderstorms Showers and storms will be numerous over the region today owing to the very moist airmass and daytime instability. Synoptic pattern shows PWATs are about the 95th percentile with values of about 2.4 inches. Guidance and analyses show broad cyclonic flow over the central parts of the forecast area oriented west to east. Notable mid level disturbance is located near to just north of the FL/GA and is very slowly drifting north. This relatively stagnant pattern, effective rain producing cells, and the troughing will lead to some convective training and instances of flash flooding, generally from a broad zone between I-75 to near I-95. And so, some locations impacted, not all inclusive, would be from Clinch county southeast to Baker/west central Duval southward to Putnam county. Storm motion will be slow to near or below 10 mph. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches are possible. The southerly flow will allow temps to rise to the mid 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. Tonight, scattered showers and storms expected in the evening (6-8 PM) and some convective activity will likely hang on through midnight where the airmass has not been worked over from prior outflows and rainfall. Decreasing clouds expected overnight and may see some low clouds again by early morning as well as some patchy fog. Lows in the lower to mid 70s will be common. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: (Saturday through Sunday night) - Localized Flooding Rain Threat - Isolated Daily Strong Storms Afternoon/Evening, mainly near the east coast A ridge of high pressure will stretch across southern FL Saturday, as a front approaches from the north. The low level flow between these features will be from the southwest. With this flow, the east coast sea breeze will have a hard time getting much further inland than the I95 corridor. Anticipate moisture moving off the Gulf Saturday morning, and producing showers early in the day. With diurnal heating, these showers will strengthen into thunderstorms, as the activity moves east northeast later in the morning and through the afternoon. A maximum of convective activity is expected to occur across the I95 corridor during the afternoon, due interaction with the east coast sea breeze. The greatest chance for strong storms will be along the sea breeze. With loss of heating, this activity is then expected to dissipate during the evening. On Sunday, the ridge will move further south, as the front sinks across GA. The low level flow Sunday will more from the west and the east coast sea breeze will likely not get much pass the beaches. Once again with moisture flowing in from the Gulf, convective activity will get going in the morning, with an area coverage max occurring in the afternoon along the east coast due to the sea breeze. Once again the greatest chance for strong storms Sunday will be along near the coast in the afternoon. The front is expected to sink to near the GA/FL line Sunday night, with convergence along this boundary keeping convective chances in the forecast through the night. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. The flow is fairly light this period, so would anticipate that any storms which form will be slow moving, and the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: (Monday through Friday) - Gusty onshore winds Monday night through Wednesday - Potential for strong thunderstorms each day - Elevated Tides with Approach of Sept 11 New Moon A surface front will weaken as it pushes south across the area Monday through Tuesday. Convergence along this boundary will result in higher than average chances for convection both these days, with activity possibly extending into Monday night as well. High pressure will build to the northeast behind the front Tuesday through Wednesday. As the front clears an area from north to south during these two days, the onshore flow will increase with gusty conditions near the coast. An upper high will build overhead during these two days. While precipitation chances will remain higher than average Wednesday, expect potential for stronger storms to decrease with ridge building aloft. Another front will approach from the north Thursday, and push into the local area Friday. Will trend toward seasonal averages for convective chances late in this period, as models diverge on high fast that front gets into area. Temperatures will trend near to a little below average for much of this period, then above late in the period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Main operational impacts will be showers and storms affecting most of the terminals into the late afternoon and early evening. MVFR and IFR conditions are anticipated with this activity. The relatively slow movement of the activity and the moisture-rich airmass may allow for some extended periods of MVFR/IFR cig and vsby conditions. TEMPO groups are warranted for all terminals this afternoon. Shower and storm activity should wind down by about 00z, but still some isolated to scattered convection around 00z-03z. We have some MVFR vsby later tonight for VQQ as well. Otherwise, some low vsby and occasional low cigs possible around 08z-13z for inland TAFs. Sfc winds are expected to be east- southeast 7-11 kt, but more southerly winds at GNV expected. Light and more variable wind flow expected tonight. && .MARINE... Winds will be southeast to south today into tonight over area waters as high pressure becomes situated east of our area. Prevailing westerly winds are then expected from Saturday through at least Monday morning as a frontal boundary sinks southward towards our region, with this feature maintaining a stormy weather pattern. Stronger high pressure will build down the southeastern seaboard early next week in the wake of this boundary, likely pushing the front over the northeast Florida waters. Onshore winds will then redevelop over the area waters by Tuesday. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate at all area beaches rest of today as winds will be onshore with occasionally rough surf at times. The risk will tend to drop for the weekend with more offshore winds prevailing. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Dispersions Northeast FL Monday The region will be between a high pressure ridge to the south, and a front to the north A frontal boundary will move south across the area through Saturday. A frontal boundary will sink south across the area Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure will build to the northeast following this front mid week, bringing onshore flow, which will be gusty at the coast. Another front will approach the region late in the week. Above average chances for thunderstorms can be expected for much of this week. Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm activity. Patchy inland morning fog each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Coastal water levels begin to increase mid week next week with the approach of the New Moon on Sept 11th combined with onshore easterly flow. At this time, extended probabilistic guidance keeps water levels below action stage through Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River basin. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 73 92 74 / 70 20 20 10 SSI 86 77 91 76 / 30 10 10 10 JAX 89 74 92 75 / 70 20 60 10 SGJ 89 75 91 75 / 70 30 50 10 GNV 90 73 91 73 / 70 20 50 10 OCF 91 74 91 74 / 70 20 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$