159
FXUS62 KJAX 261154
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
754 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increased Thunderstorm Coverage Today through Saturday. Isolated Strong Afternoon & Evening Storms Today. Main Storm Hazards: Gusty Winds & Briefly Flooding Rainfall

- Weekend Tropical Development Near the Bahamas Expected. Higher confidence of local marine & surf zone hazards Monday & Tuesday. Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today

- Tidal Flooding & Marine Hazard Risk Late Next Week w/NorEaster

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Wet and unsettled weather today and tonight with several waves of
showers and storms as a front approaches from the west, then
begins to stall and linger over the area tonight. Several waves of
showers and storms are expected to pass over the area from west
to east over the next 24 hrs.

The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Flooding Risk
(level 1 out of 4) across southeast Georgia today and tonight due
to training rainfall risk near the stalling front. Most will
welcome the rainfall given a very dry September. Expected rainfall
amounts today and tonight are a welcomed 0.10 to 0.50 inches for
most locations, with higher end potential values of 2-4 inches
across parts of southeast GA and the Suwannee River Valley through
daybreak Saturday morning.

This morning, showers and isolated storms will be possible across
inland SE GA and the Suwanee River Valley as southwest steering
flow nudges some convection eastward, while the better coverage
of rainfall, including a few isolated strong to severe storms,
will overspread the area this afternoon as both pre-frontal convection
and the west coast sea breeze convection blossom from west to east
into the late afternoon as a stronger short wave trough migrates
across the area from the Gulf. West coast sea breeze and pre-
frontal storms merge with a pinned east coast sea breeze near and
just east of the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon, then
resultant strong storms will drift offshore into the early
evening.

The best bulk shear in the 0-6 km layer of 25-30 kts will
position across inland southeast GA this afternoon, while the
higher surface based instability builds over the St. Johns River
basin. Mid level temperatures and lapse rates are meager for this
time of year, so widespread severe storms nor an organized line
are expected. However, pulse severe storms are possible given
very high moisture (PWATs over 2 inches across southeast GA and
the Suwannee River Valley to 1.8-2 inches across northeast
Florida) combined with numerous boundary mergers under enhanced
mid level lift this afternoon and evening. The main hazard from
storms today will be gusty downburst winds, especially near and
west of the Highway 301 corridor and toward the Atlantic coast.

Although shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity will fade
through midnight with the loss of diurnal instability, nocturnal
showers and storms will be possible through the night as the
frontal boundary begins to stall across the local area with
another mid level short wave trough from the Gulf coast region
after 06z Saturday morning. This could bring some early morning
stronger storms inland toward the Suwannee River Valley I-75
corridor by daybreak.

With increased cloud over and storminess, temperatures will begin
to trend relatively cooler compared to recent near record highs.
Today, highs are forecast to range in the mid to upper 80s across
most of southeast GA and the western Suwannee River Valley (west
of I-75) where an earlier convective onset is expected. The
hottest temperatures of the day will focus across the St. Johns
River Basin of northeast Florida where highs will top out in the
lower 90s with peak heat index values near 100 degrees before
storm outflows cool off the airmass. Tonight, lows will range from
the upper 60s to low 70s inland to the mid 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Cold front continues to progress south and eastward throughout
Saturday, stalling near the southern CWA border by Saturday Night.
With the timing of the front mainly being early Saturday morning
into the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms will be likely as the front moves from
northwest to southeast during this same time frame, with the best
chance for thunderstorms lingering into the evening hours being
generally the further south and east you go in NE FL. Due to the
increased cloud cover and mostly non diurnal timing of the frontal
passage, not expecting a significant strong to severe threat as
instability will be limited, though cannot rule out an isolated
strong to marginal severe storm Saturday given the lingering
dynamics aloft. Some drier air will intrude from northwest to
southeast throughout the day, though some will be slow enough and
marginal enough PWAT wise for a few isolated showers to pop up
during the afternoon hours just being the front over far interior
areas. High temps may vary a bit on Saturday thanks to the
plentiful cloud cover and early precip coverage, though
temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80s will be common. A few
showers will likely continue through Saturday Night, mainly near
the northeast FL coast closer to the front with lows ranging from
the mid to upper 60s inland to the low 70s south and east.

The associated upper trough that drove the aforementioned front
across our area will lift northeastward and close off on Sunday
before likely starting to retrograde more northwest to westward on
Sunday Night. This will set the stage for a tricky forecast as
discussed over the past several days with respect to this
interaction/influence on a tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) that
is likely to form into a tropical depression over or north of the
Bahamas this weekend.

Confidence has increased overall from low to moderate over the
past 12-24 hours, as guidance is starting to come into better
agreement that the aforementioned upper low and retrograde motion
will "pull" this disturbance towards the southeastern states
starting around Sunday Night as it retrogrades generally westward.
More direct impacts, especially away from the coast, remain
unlikely at this time aside from some possible bands of showers
approaching the coast, as most guidance suggests a rather quick
north to north/northwest movement just east of area waters once
this disturbance starts to get its act together. Confidence
remains high that the greatest impacts will be for both marine and
coastal interests beginning as early as Sunday and continuing
through Monday. These would include strengthening northeast winds
Sunday, backing towards the north to northwest through Monday,
building seas, frequent rip currents, rough surf, and potential
tidal flooding impacts. One positive to this increasingly likely
scenario of a quick moving tropical system north and east of the
area would be a rather quick shift in the wind direction from
onshore to more along/offshore Sunday through Monday, which may
help taper some of these hazards somewhat compared to a system
located south or southwest of the region. Please continue to
monitor the latest forecast guidance over the coming days from
official sources including our office at weather.gov/jax and the
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov, as even small changes
to the forecast could make a significant impact on expected
conditions.

For more inland areas, depending on exactly how strong this
potential system would be as well as how close of pass it makes to
our CWA, impacts look to be generally minimal. Being on the
west/southwestern drier side of this low will generally bring
lower rain chances the further inland you go, and just some breezy
conditions that could potential flirt with wind advisory criteria
for Sunday and especially Monday. As mentioned above, closer to
the coast would have the best chance for some showers and
potential tropical bands moving through at times.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Looking increasingly likely that the aforementioned potential
tropical disturbance will move onshore somewhere along the coast
of south Carolina or southern coast of North Carolina sometime
around the Monday Night through Tuesday time frame, merging with
the aforementioned upper low over the southeast US/lower Ohio
River Valley and meander for several days thereafter. Winds will
continue to shift around from the north towards the northwest and
likely eventually westerly, which will certainly suggest a dry
slot of sorts impacting the region and therefore lowering rain
chances as well. The interaction between the low/upper low and a
strong ridge trying to build down the eastern seaboard will likely
keep things breezy heading into mid and possibly late next week,
which will start more along or offshore around Tuesday but
guidance suggests this could turn into a more northeasterly type
of event sometime around Wednesday/Thursday as the upper low
weakens and retrogrades further west/southwest which allows
ridging to build further down the coast. Still a lot to be sorted
out between now and early to mid next week so stay tuned...
Temperatures trend near to possibly slightly below average Tuesday
through Thursday pending how this pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Low stratus and fog impacts at GNV will clear by around 13z. with
SW winds building along with developing mid/high clouds from the
from out of the west and diurnally driven cumulus. High chances
for showers and storms forming from west to east to impact
terminals this afternoon and evening. Late evening storms will
have mostly moved offshore by around 04-06z with lingering showers
and MVFR ceilings expected in the vicinity of SSI through
08z-10z. Lowering ceilings and visibilities are anticipated for
the end of the forecast period with early morning convection
developing near GNV by around 09z-12z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Increased storminess today as a front approaches from the west with
continued southerly winds. The front lingers over the area tonight
into Saturday with continued waves of storms. The front moves south
of the local waters Saturday. Northeast winds increase Sunday and
Monday as high pressure strengthens north of the region and a
potential tropical system nears the Bahamas. Building seas and
increasing winds are forecast to reach Advisory levels by Monday as
the tropical system tracks north of the Bahamas. An extended
duration of Advisory conditions is likely next week due to elevated
winds and seas. Local interests should monitor the latest forecasts
on this potential tropical cyclone from the National Hurricane
Center.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today with a low risk
possible for Saturday before increasing northeast winds Monday
through mid week next week returns a high rip current risk to
local beaches. There is a high chance of rough, high surf Monday
into Tuesday as the tropical system passes east of the local
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  68  85  66 /  70  70  50  10
SSI  88  71  83  71 /  70  80  60  40
JAX  92  71  86  69 /  70  70  70  30
SGJ  90  73  86  72 /  60  70  70  50
GNV  92  70  88  68 /  50  50  70  20
OCF  90  72  87  71 /  40  40  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$