612
FXUS62 KJAX 031747
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1247 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy to Areas of Frost Across Inland Southeast GA Late
  Tonight and Early Thursday Morning.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas.

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rainfall Across Southeast GA
  Friday Night through Sunday Morning. Isolated Thunderstorms
  Possible Area-Wide this Weekend.

- Light Freezes and Frost Possible at Inland Locations Next Week
  on Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Afternoon surface analysis depicts slowly strengthening high
pressure (1024 millibars) building southeastward from the Tennessee
Valley towards the southeastern states. Meanwhile, the cold front
that passed across our region on Tuesday afternoon and evening was
now slowing its forward progress across south FL. Aloft...brisk west-
southwesterly flow prevails locally, as our area remains between
flat ridging positioned over Cuba and the Bahamas and troughing that
was digging southeastward from the Upper Midwest. A deck of
stratocumulus cloud cover based around a stout subsidence inversion
at 900 millibars (around 3,000 feet) was slowly eroding early this
afternoon for locations south and east of Alma, GA, while this
cloud cover has been thicker for locations along the Altamaha /
Ocmulgee Rivers. Temperatures beneath this thicker cloud cover
remain stuck in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees as of 18Z,
and dewpoints were falling through the 30s throughout inland
southeast GA as a drier air mass continues to advect into our
region. Peaks of sunshine were countering cold air advection
elsewhere, allowing temperatures to climb from the upper 50s to
the mid 60s at most locations. Dewpoints for these areas were
generally in the 45-50 range.

Brisk west-southwesterly flow aloft will continue tonight,
advecting a veil of mostly thin, high altitude cirrus across
our skies. Surface ridging will continue to build into our
region from the northwest, allowing for surface winds to
decouple early this evening at inland locations. The veil of
cirrus should be thin enough for radiational cooling, with
patchy to areas of frost formation expected for inland locations
in southeast GA after midnight, where lows will fall to the mid
30s. Lows elsewhere will fall to the upper 30s for inland
locations along I-10 and 40s elsewhere, except around 50 along
the northeast FL coast, where a light north northwesterly breeze
will continue overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Rounds of rain will move through the area mainly along and north
of the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday as a parade of upper
shortwaves round a ridge and traverse across the Gulf states. At
the surface, an area of low pressure develops in the NW Gulf
and tracks eastward along the Gulf coast lifting a warm front up
the FL peninsula. Rain will be mainly either light or sprinkles
on Thursday as it has to overcome the dry airmass over the
area. Developing SSW flow ahead of the approaching surface low
will promote warm air and moisture advection inland. Showers
become more widespread on Friday and limited elevated
instability will support a few embedded thunderstorms.
Convection continues into Friday night as the low and cold front
move into northern FL. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates
a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across of inland SE GA
due to the potential for continuous rounds of heavy downpours.
Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 50s/low 60s in SE GA
to the low/mid 70s in north-central FL. Temperatures increase
to above seasonable on Friday with highs in the mid 60s to the
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A cold front will stall over north-central FL Saturday into
Saturday Night before finally shifting south into central FL
later on Sunday. Deep Gulf moisture will increase PWATs into the
1.6-1.8 in. range which is above seasonable for this time of
the year. Moist environment and the frontal boundary providing a
focus for ascent will produce numerous to widespread showers
with embedded thunderstorms moving across the area mainly
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This will bring
beneficial rainfall to our severe/extreme drought areas with
rainfall totals in the 1 to 4 inch range. However, minor
flooding could occur in areas that continuously receive rounds
of heavy rainfall in a short time period. The axis of heavy rain
will generally be across inland SE GA where locally higher
amounts are possible. WPC expanded their Marginal risk of
excessive rainfall to include SE GA and NE FL for their Saturday
outlook.

From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass
will settle over the area under building high pressure.
Temperatures will fall to below normal for early December, with
highs in the lower to mid 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Guidance also suggest another, albeit drier,
reinforcing front boundary Monday, supporting cool and dry
conditions with good model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

MVFR ceilings of 2,500 - 3,000 feet may continue at the regional
terminals through around 20Z. VFR conditions should then prevail
through at least 06Z Thursday. Periods of MVFR visibilities
will likely develop after 06Z Thursday at VQQ. VFR conditions
should then prevail by 12Z. Northwesterly surface winds of 5-10
knots will prevail at the Duval County terminals, GNV, and SSI
through around 00Z, while northeasterly winds sustained around
10 knots continue at SGJ through around 22Z. Northwest to
northerly surface winds sustained at 5 knots or less will then
prevail after 23Z at the regional terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will build over the southeastern states tonight
and Thursday. Low pressure will then organize along the
northern Gulf coast on Thursday night, with a warm front lifting
northward across our local waters on Friday, accompanied by an
increasing coverage of showers. Weak low pressure will move
northeastward across southeastern GA on Friday evening, with
this storm system`s cold front then crossing our local waters on
Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will
then develop along this front just south of the northeast FL
waters on Saturday night, keeping showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms over our local waters through Sunday. Low pressure
will then strengthen as it moves offshore on Sunday night and
Monday, resulting in strengthening north northwesterly winds as
rainfall ends.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday
              NE FL Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon,
with Poor to Fair dispersions, becoming Poor by Thursday. Rounds
of rainfall move through the area Thursday into this weekend
ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly light showers
anticipated on Thursday along and north of I-10 corridor.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms increase area-wide late
Friday into Saturday. South- southwesterly flow increases on
Friday developing fair dispersions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  59  46  66 /   0  40  40  80
SSI  43  63  52  71 /   0  20  20  50
JAX  42  67  52  78 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  50  69  57  80 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  44  72  54  80 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  47  74  55  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$