037
FXUS62 KJAX 031147
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
647 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA This Morning & Thursday

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rain SE GA Friday & Saturday

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 3,000 feet will prevail at the regional
terminals this morning through early this afternoon, with ceilings
then lifting to VFR by 18Z at the Duval County terminals and SSI and
by 20Z at GNV and SGJ. Periods of MVFR visibilities may develop
after 06Z Thursday at VQQ, but confidence was currently too low to
include in the 12Z TAFs. Northerly surface winds will increase to 5-
10 knots at the regional terminals by 15Z, followed by winds
shifting to northwesterly after 16Z. Northwest to northerly surface
winds sustained at 5 knots or less will then prevail after 23Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Cool drier air associated with high pressure will build in over the
region today, following the previous nights frontal passage, with
calm weather and mild winds throughout today and tonight. Patchy
early morning frost developments are expected over inland southeast
Georgia early this morning before clearing with the sunrise. Patchy
frost conditions are expected to return during the early AM hours
tonight and extend into early Thursday morning. High temperatures
today will rise into the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s over
southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s over
northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into
the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 40s
over inland northeast Florida and in the 40s and lower 50s for areas
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

By Thursday, an area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will begin
lifting a warm front across Florida. Moisture will gradually
increase from the southwest, most notably across north of I-10 will
700-400 mb WSW flow starts to prime the atmosphere. Skies will trend
from mostly sunny in the morning to mostly cloudy by afternoon
especially across SE Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures will
be slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s across
SE GA and the upper 60s to lower 70s across Northeast FL. Dry
conditions will persist most of the day, though a few light showers
or sprinkles may develop over the far interior SE GA during the
afternoon continuing into the nocturnal hours.

Thursday night, cloud cover will continue to increase as deep
moisture streams northward ahead of the approaching Gulf System.
Lows will be warmer, generally in mid 40s for inland SE GA and low
to mid 50s across NE FL. Northeast winds will remain around 5 to 10
mph. Shower chances will rise overnight, especially SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley where POPS range 25 to 45 percent, with likely POPS
near the Ocmulgee River Basin.

By Friday morning, the warm front will lift north toward I-10
corridor and is expected to reach near Waycross by early Friday
evening. This will bring increasing moisture and warmer
temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across
much of NE and N Central FL, while SE GA will see mid 60s to lower
70s. Showers will embedded thunderstorms will become more
widespread, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, with
highest coverage across SE GA, the Suwannee Valley, and areas north
of I-10. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates a Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall across of SE GA. The cold front will
press and then push through SE GA late Friday morning and stall near
the I-10 corridor by daybreak Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will finally push south of the area by late Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the associated low lifts northeastward.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through
Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances will gradually decrease
Saturday night, though scattered showers are anticipated into
Sunday. With southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the front on
Saturday, deep Gulf moisture transport will support periods of heavy
rainfall with some guidance suggesting 2 to 4 inches across portions
of Southeast Georgia. The marginal risk for excessive rainfall
shifts southward Saturday to include most of SE GA and NE FL as the
front progresses through the region.

From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass will
settle over the area under building high pressure. Temperatures will
fall below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid
60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Guidance also
suggest another, albeit drier, reinforcing front boundary Monday,
supporting cool and dry conditions with good model agreement.

&&

.MARINE...

Troughing will linger over coastal waters into Wednesday, as high
pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build to the north
Thursday. An area of low pressure will move northeast out of the
Gulf Friday, with the frontal system associated with this low
lingering over the region through the weekend.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday
              NE FL Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon,
with Poor to Fair dispersions developing, becoming Poor by
Thursday. The next round of showers and storms expected Thursday
evening into the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure
will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, bringing
another cold front to push across the area during the upcoming
weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy frost possible Wednesday
Night and early Thursday morning for interior locations in
southeast GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  35  58  45  60 /   0  30  50  70
SSI  44  63  52  68 /   0  10  30  40
JAX  41  68  51  77 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  48  69  56  78 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  43  71  53  79 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  45  73  54  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$