293
FXUS62 KJAX 041751
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1251 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Along & North of I-10 on Fri &
  Fri Night.

- Heavy Rainfall Expected Across Southeast GA Sat & Sat Night.

- Heavy Rainfall Possible Across Northeast FL on Sat Night & Sun.
  Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-Wide.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas.

- Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon & Tues Nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 00Z this evening. Light showers will approach the SSI terminal
from the west after 00Z, with confidence remaining high enough to
maintain a PROB30 group for periods of MVFR visibilities during
heavier showers from 01Z - 06Z Friday. Confidence in shower activity
approaching the Duval County terminals has waned, and we have
removed PROB30 groups at these terminals. MVFR visibilities may
develop during the overnight and predawn hours at VQQ and GNV, but
confidence was too low to indicate visibility restrictions at GNV at
this time. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail at SGJ, with mid
and high altitude cloud cover remaining in place throughout the TAF
period at all area terminals. Northerly surface winds sustained at 5-
10 knots early this afternoon will shift to northeasterly by late
afternoon, with surface winds diminishing after sunset. Surface
winds will shift to southerly during the predawn hours and then
south-southwesterly towards 14Z Friday, with speeds increasing to 10-
15 knots at the regional terminals by 16Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023
millibars) situated along the Carolina coast. Meanwhile, an
arctic cold front was pushing southeastward from the eastern
Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and the Ozarks, with
stronger high pressure (1033 millibars) building over the Upper
Midwest in the wake of this front. Otherwise, weak low pressure
(1013 millibars) was developing along a warm front situated near
the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts, with this
front draped southeastward across the Gulf towards FL Bay and
the Keys. Aloft...fast zonal flow prevails locally, as our
region remains situated between ridging over Cuba and the
Bahamas and troughing that was being deflected eastward across
the Upper Midwest and the Plains states. Weak shortwave energy
embedded within the fast west-southwesterly flow pattern across
the Deep South was inducing strengthening isentropic lift /
overrunning across the FL Panhandle and southern GA, where a few
light showers were reaching the ground from Valdosta and points
northwestward within a lingering dry air mass. Mid and high
altitude cloudiness was overspreading inland portions of
southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley downstream of the
developing storm system along the northern Gulf coast. Following
a frosty early morning across inland portions of southeast GA,
increasing clouds were keeping temperatures in the chilly 40s,
while temperatures elsewhere at 15Z were rising through the 50s.
Dewpoints ranged from the upper 30s across inland southeast GA
to the lower 50s along the northeast FL coast.

Brisk west-southwesterly flow aloft will continue across our region
into the weekend as troughing continues to dig to the northwest of
our region and ridging prevails over the Bahamas and the Greater
Antilles. Shortwave energy embedded within this fast, mostly zonal
flow pattern locally will push across southeast GA this afternoon,
assisting in strengthening the overrunning / isentropic lift
pattern. However, a dry air mass in place over our area this morning
will be slow to budge, and thus the atmospheric column will be slow
to moisten from flight level down to the surface this afternoon and
evening. Chances for measurable light rainfall will only gradually
increase this afternoon across inland portions of southeast GA,
where thickening cloud cover will keep highs in the 50s today.
Mainly mid and high altitude cloud cover will overspread the
Interstate 10 corridor this afternoon, keeping highs in the 60s.
Cloud cover will only gradually increase this afternoon across north
central FL, allowing highs to climb to the low and middle 70s.

Light rainfall becomes likely by this evening for locations along
the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA, with chances for
measurable rainfall extending to northern portions of the Suwannee
Valley and coastal southeast GA. Dry weather is expected elsewhere,
with less cloud cover over north central FL possibly allowing some
patchy fog or low cloud development towards sunrise. Low level flow
will veer overnight as weak low pressure glides eastward along the
FL panhandle coast, with this storm system`s warm front lifting
towards north central FL by sunrise on Friday. Developing warm air
advection will keep lows in the 50s across coastal southeast GA and
all of northeast and north central FL, with upper 40s expected for
most of inland southeast GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Friday and Friday Night: Ongoing and prevailing southsouthwest flow
ahead of the approaching surface  low will promote warm-air and
moisture advection inland. Showers will become more widespread on
Friday, and limited elevated instability may support a few embedded
thunderstorms. Convection is expected to persist into Friday night
as the low and associated cold front move into northern Florida. The
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights a Marginal Risk across
inland southeast Georgia due to the potential for repeated rounds of
heavy downpours. Temperatures will rise to above-seasonable levels
on Friday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to the low-80s.

Saturday and Saturday Night: The aforementioned cold front is
forecast to stall over north-central Florida from Saturday into
Saturday night. Increasing Gulf moisture will raise PWATs into the
1.61.8 inch range, which is above normal for this time of year.
This moist environment, combined with the frontal boundary acting as
a focus for ascent, will support numerous to widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms, mainly from Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning. This system will bring beneficial rainfall to areas
experiencing severe to extreme drought, with storm totals generally
ranging from 1 to 4 inches. However, minor flooding may occur where
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall develop over a short period. The
axis of heaviest rain will likely set up across inland southeast
Georgia, where locally higher amounts are possible. The WPC has
expanded its Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall to include both
southeast Georgia and northeast Florida in the Saturday outlook.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Sunday and Sunday Night: The axis of deepest moisture will shift
southward, settling just south of the FloridaGeorgia line.
Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will
persist through the day. The stalled front will gradually push into
central Florida by late afternoon, while a surface low tracks along
the I-10 corridor in northeast Florida and moves offshore into the
adjacent Atlantic by evening. In the wake of the cold front, a few
isolated rain showers may linger into Sunday evening, diminishing
significantly and ending altogether late Sunday night.

The 72 hour (3 day total) probability of exceeding 2 inches of total
rainfall from Friday through Sunday from Live Oak FL to Baxley GA
westward ranges from 50 to 90 percent.

The 72 hour probability of exceeding 3 inches total rainfall from
Friday through Sunday from Homerville to Denton, GA westward ranges
from 33 to 67 percent.

Monday through Wednesday: A drier and colder airmass will settle
over the region as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will run
below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid-60s
and overnight lows ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. Guidance
also indicates the passage of another, drier reinforcing front on
Monday, which will maintain cool and dry conditions with strong
model agreement.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak low pressure organizing along the northern Gulf coast this
afternoon will lift a warm front northeastward across our local
waters on Friday, accompanied by showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm. Weak low pressure will move northeastward
across southeastern Georgia on Friday afternoon, with this storm
system`s cold front then crossing our local waters on Friday night
and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will then develop along
this front just south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday
night, with widespread rainfall and a few embedded thunderstorms
likely across our local waters through Sunday. Low pressure will
then strengthen as it moves offshore on Sunday night and Monday,
resulting in strengthening north northwesterly winds as rainfall
ends, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible from Monday
through early Tuesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Friday
              NE FL Low Friday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light northwesterly to northerly winds surface and transport
winds 5-10 mph will create poor dispersion values today across
the area as high pressure exits slowly to the east. Light
scattered showers will spread east over Southeast GA areas into
northern Suwannee Valley through tonight as a warm front lifts
northward into the area from the south. Multiple rounds of
rainfall are expected Friday through the rest of the weekend
ahead of an approaching cold front that will move through Sunday
night. The showers will be heaviest Friday into Friday night
over Southeast GA into the Suwannee Valley with the axis of
heavier showers moving into Northeast FL late Saturday into much
of Sunday before ending by Sunday Evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will be embedded with the heavier showers as well,
but no severe storms are expected.

Breezy winds from the south to southwest will prevail south of the
front over Northeast FL 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30, but low clouds
and low mixing heights will limit dispersions to fair to good range
while light winds/low clouds will create low daytime dispersions. As
the front sinks south of the FL/GA state line on Saturday, light
northerly winds 5-10 mph and cloud cover will promote low daytime
dispersions north of I-10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  61  49  59 /  50  90  70  90
SSI  54  70  52  63 /  20  60  50  70
JAX  54  79  56  69 /  10  30  30  60
SGJ  60  79  60  72 /  10  10  30  40
GNV  55  80  61  74 /  10  20  30  60
OCF  57  79  63  77 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$