Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
297 FXUS62 KJAX 051729 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 129 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Elevated Fire Danger through Thursday. Critically Low Humidity Values Expected Inland Today and Wednesday - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Wednesday - Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday - Breezy with Scattered Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon & Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Across Inland Southeast GA - Scattered Thunderstorms Friday through Early Next Week - Historic Drought Conditions Prevail Across Most of Our Area && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Elevated Fire Danger at Inland Locations this Afternoon. Near Critically Low Humidity Values are Forecast, with High Daytime Dispersion Values for Inland Locations North of Waycross, GA. - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Pleasant weather expected for the rest of the day with partly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds, and highs in the mid to upper 80s inland. Onshore afternoon breeze will keep coastal high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s today. Tonight, lows will be in the 60s areawide with some patchy fog possible inland in the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Above Average Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday - Potential for Strong Thunderstorms over SE Georgia on Thursday - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Temperatures will be above average on Wednesday as dry conditions continue, weak southwest flow will allow the east coast sea breeze to keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Southwesterly winds will increase further on Thursday ahead of an incoming front, preventing the Atlantic sea breeze from providing much relief to the east coast. Highs will be in the 90s inland both days, with the immediate coast reaching the 90s as well Thursday. Showers and storms will enter inland southeast Georgia Thursday morning, spreading southeastward towards I-10 throughout the day. Currently, strong to isolated severe storms look possible over southeast GA, primarily in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with rainfall totals forecast to be about 0.5" north of I-10. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm Chances Continue into Weekend Rain coverage will extend into northeast Florida Friday into the weekend as the cold front stalls over northern Florida and lifts northward as a warm front this weekend. Highest rain and storm chances during this period will be Friday, with a slight gradual decrease through the weekend area-wide. Through the weekend, highest forecast rainfall totals are along and north of I-10. Temperatures will be near to above normal through Sunday, warmest over north central FL (south of the front) reaching the low 90s, upper 70s to 80s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail this period. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the northeast Florida waters through Wednesday night. Onshore winds will become breezy across the near shore waters this afternoon and evening, and speeds will likely reach Caution levels on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, a cold front entering the southeastern states on Wednesday night will shift prevailing winds to southwesterly across our local waters, with this front then slowing its forward progress as it moves across the Georgia waters on Thursday night, followed by this front stalling over the northeast Florida waters on Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just ahead of the frontal boundary across the Georgia waters on Thursday evening, with a few strong storms possible through around midnight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop throughout our local waters on Friday and Friday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the weekend as the front slowly lifts northward ahead of the next possible frontal passage, which is forecast to occur by Monday night or next Tuesday. Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds will become breezy on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with these winds combining with a lingering easterly ocean swell to maintain a higher end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches and a lower end moderate risk at the southeast GA beaches, where surf heights will likely remain around 2 feet. Breezy southwesterly winds should yield a low risk at area beaches on Thursday. Winds will shift to northeasterly on Friday, likely resulting in a moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Dispersions Inland Each Afternoon Through Thursday Dry weather is expected to prevail area-wide through Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. With the drier airmass behind the recent front, very good mixing inland each day through Wednesday will result in minRH near critically low values during the afternoon and evening, as well as an overall increase in daytime dispersions each day. The next frontal boundary to affect the area will approach Wednesday Night, bring chances of rain mainly for southeast GA on Thursday with lower chances across northeast FL as the front weakens Thursday Night and into Friday. Thunderstorms will also be possible with the front, especially north of about the I-10 corridor. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for: Wed, May 6: JAX: 96/2012 CRG: 96/2012 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 95/2012 Thu, May 7: JAX: 94/1977 CRG: 94/1977 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 93/1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 61 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 69 82 70 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 84 63 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 80 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 87 62 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 88 64 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$