594
FXUS62 KJAX 270423
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1223 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot & Humid Weather Continues. Heat Advisories for Monday and
  possible again Tuesday for Portions of Our Area. Heat Indices
  up to 110 Possible

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

- Scattered TStorms on Monday. Strong Storms, Frequent Lightning
  Strikes & Locally Heavy Downpours Possible.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Tues & Wed

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Heat Advisory Today for NE FL/most of SE GA, Heat Indices 107-111F

- Lower rainfall chances, but isolated strong/severe storms possible

Weak shortwave aloft will push southward through the region early
this morning and will allow for slightly drier air mass to filter in
aloft with PWATs falling into the 1.6-1.8 inch range by this
afternoon. This feature will allow for some isolated showers and
storms this morning, but overall expect mostly dry conditions with
skies becoming partly to mostly sunny this afternoon and will allow
for Max temps into the mid/upper 90s over inland areas, while East
coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland to the I-95 corridor
will hold Atlantic Coastal locations with highs in the lower to
middle 90s. These temps combined with the humid air mass will push
Heat Indices into the 107-111F range across all of NE FL and most of
SE GA to the south/east of Waycross and have posted Heat Advisory
from 11am-8pm, while areas across inland SE GA to the north/west of
Waycross will peak out with Heat Indices around 105F. The slightly
drier air mass aloft will lessen rainfall chances late this
afternoon and evening, but still expect widely scattered storms
across SE GA with Pops (20-40%), while lingering moisture across NE
FL with still support scattered storms with PoPs (30-60%) as the
East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and will trigger convection,
mainly late in the day from the 5pm-9pm time frame which should
support Heat Advisory headlines due the late nature of convection.
Strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph still
possible in the activity as movement will be from the NW to SE at 15-
20 mph and some Hi-Res models are supporting a low chance of an MCS
type feature across Central GA, pushing into SE GA during the
evening hours which could provide the support for a more
concentrated wind threat there due to the lingering extreme heating
at the surface. Any evening convective threat from storms should end
by midnight with the usual fair skies and humid conditions expected
with lows in the 70s inland and near 80F along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Below average thunderstorm coverage Tuesday, and above average
Wednesday. Potential for strong to severe storms, especially
Wednesday

- Heat Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday and Wednesday

A cold front will move south toward the area Tuesday, then into SE
GA Tuesday night, where it will stall through Wednesday night.

Some drier air will move into area ahead of the boundary Tuesday,
helping to limit convective potential.

Better moisture will return on Wednesday. The combination of better
moisture, and convergence along surface boundary will yield above
average chances for convection, especially across SE GA. With the
front in the area, convection could extend into the overnight
Wednesday night.

Highs on Tuesday, away from the immediate coast will approach 100,
with heat advisories likely becoming necessary. Temperatures will be
a bit cooler on Wednesday due to convective coverage, but still may
need another heat advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

_ Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which
may become strong to severe

Frontal boundary will stalled across SE GA through Friday, then lift
just north of the area on Saturday and Sunday. Due to ample
moisture, and frontal convergence, above average precipitation
chances are forecast throughout this period.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Friday, then near to a
bit below over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Lower rainfall chances expected today with mostly inland TAF sites
impacted with East Coast sea breeze pushing slightly farther inland
and will continue PROB30 at JAX/VQQ/GNV, mainly in the 21-01Z time
frame, while likely just need only VCTS at SSI/SGJ/CRG through the
evening hours. Mostly VFR conds are expected with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in
any convection that develops near terminals later today.

&&

.MARINE...


A nearly stationary frontal boundary just north of the local waters
will dissipate early this week. Another front will approach from the
north during the middle of the week with offshore southwest winds
increasing to near advisory levels from Wednesday through Friday.
This will bring a return to a stormy weather pattern to the local
waters late in the week and into next weekend.

Rip Currents: A low end moderate risk of rip currents is expected
today and Tuesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches due to an
afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers of 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-Heat Indices in the advisory range for much of the area Today
through Wednesday.

-Patchy high daytime dispersions this week.

A frontal boundary will be located just to the north of the area
early this week, then lay across southeast Georgia mid week. The
boundary is expected to lift back to the north next weekend.
The first half of this week will have temperatures running above
normal. Daily chances for thunderstorms will increase through the
week.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during
the next several mornings. Heat Advisories may be needed Monday
through Wednesday afternoons. Daily thunderstorm chances this week,
with greatest chances beginning mid week. Gusty and erratic winds
can be expected in and near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
for early this week:

July 28:
KJAX: 104/1872
KGNV: 100/2025
KAMG: 100/2006
KCRG: 100/2025

July 29:
KJAX: 101/2025
KGNV: 100/2025
KAMG: 99/2025
KCRG: 101/2016

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  99  79 /  20  20   0   0
SSI  94  79  98  82 /  10  20   0   0
JAX  96  77  99  81 /  30  20  10   0
SGJ  94  77  97  79 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  96  77  97  80 /  40  20  20   0
OCF  95  77  95  80 /  60  20  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$