261
FXUS62 KJAX 041231
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
731 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Heavy Rainfall Expected Across Southeast GA Friday and Saturday.

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Across Northeast FL late Saturday
Night and Sunday. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-Wide.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas

- Light Freezes and Frost Possible on Tues & Wed Nights Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 22Z. Showers may approach the SSI terminal from the west after
23Z, with confidence in impacts high enough to maintain a PROB30
group for periods of MVFR visibilities during heavier showers from
00Z - 06Z this evening and tonight. Shower activity will also
approach the Duval County terminals after 23Z, with confidence high
enough to indicate a PROB30 group for periods of MVFR visibilities
from 00Z-04Z this evening at JAX, CRG, and VQQ. Brief periods of
MVFR visibilities may develop during the overnight and predawn hours
at VQQ after shower activity departs. VFR conditions will otherwise
prevail at SGJ and GNV, with mid and high altitude cloud cover
gradually increasing over all area terminals today and tonight.
Northerly surface winds will generally increase to 5-10 knots by
16Z, with winds shifting to northeasterly later this afternoon and
evening. Light southeast to southerly winds are likely to develop
after 06Z Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

Early morning patchy frost over southeast Georgia will clear with
the sunrise followed by increasing chances for showers in the
afternoon and evening hours initially building over southeast
Georgia and spreading southeast into portions of northeast Florida
as high pressure moves further off to the east and a moist
southwesterly flow builds over the forecast area ahead of a stalled
frontal boundary over Georgia. Mild prevailing surface winds are
expected will become more northerly in the afternoon and then
diminish by the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures for
today will rise into the 50s and lower 60s over southeast Georgia
and will range between the 60s up into the mid 70s for northeast
Florida with warmer temps occurring further to the south over north
central Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the
mid to upper 40s over southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 50s
over northeast Florida and in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the
coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Friday and Friday Night: Ongoing and prevailing southsouthwest flow
ahead of the approaching surface  low will promote warm-air and
moisture advection inland. Showers will become more widespread on
Friday, and limited elevated instability may support a few embedded
thunderstorms. Convection is expected to persist into Friday night
as the low and associated cold front move into northern Florida. The
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights a Marginal Risk across
inland southeast Georgia due to the potential for repeated rounds of
heavy downpours. Temperatures will rise to above-seasonable levels
on Friday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to the low-80s.

Saturday and Saturday Night: The aforementioned cold front is
forecast to stall over north-central Florida from Saturday into
Saturday night. Increasing Gulf moisture will raise PWATs into the
1.61.8 inch range, which is above normal for this time of year.
This moist environment, combined with the frontal boundary acting as
a focus for ascent, will support numerous to widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms, mainly from Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning. This system will bring beneficial rainfall to areas
experiencing severe to extreme drought, with storm totals generally
ranging from 1 to 4 inches. However, minor flooding may occur where
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall develop over a short period. The
axis of heaviest rain will likely set up across inland southeast
Georgia, where locally higher amounts are possible. The WPC has
expanded its Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall to include both
southeast Georgia and northeast Florida in the Saturday outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Sunday and Sunday Night: The axis of deepest moisture will shift
southward, settling just south of the FloridaGeorgia line.
Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will
persist through the day. The stalled front will gradually push into
central Florida by late afternoon, while a surface low tracks along
the I-10 corridor in northeast Florida and moves offshore into the
adjacent Atlantic by evening. In the wake of the cold front, a few
isolated rain showers may linger into Sunday evening, diminishing
significantly and ending altogether late Sunday night.

The 72 hour (3 day total) probability of exceeding 2 inches of total
rainfall from Friday through Sunday from Live Oak FL to Baxley GA
westward ranges from 50 to 90 percent.

The 72 hour probability of exceeding 3 inches total rainfall from
Friday through Sunday from Homerville to Denton, GA westward ranges
from 33 to 67 percent.

Monday through Wednesday: A drier and colder airmass will settle
over the region as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will run
below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid-60s
and overnight lows ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. Guidance
also indicates the passage of another, drier reinforcing front on
Monday, which will maintain cool and dry conditions with strong
model agreement.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will build over the southeastern states today with low
pressure organizing along the northern Gulf coast tonight, with a
warm front lifting northward across our local waters on Friday
accompanied by an increasing coverage of showers. Weak low pressure
will move northeastward across southeastern Georgia on Friday
evening, with this storm system`s cold front then crossing our local
waters on Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure
will then develop along this front just south of the northeast
Florida waters on Saturday night, keeping showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms over our  local waters through Sunday. Low pressure
will then strengthen as it moves offshore on Sunday night and
Monday, resulting in strengthening north northwesterly winds as
rainfall ends.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Friday
              NE FL Moderate through Friday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light surface northwest winds will result in poor dispersion today.
Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening across
southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee Valley. Multiple rounds
of rainfall are expected Friday through the weekend ahead of an
approaching cold front. Mainly light showers are anticipated today
and tonight along and north of the I-10 corridor, with coverage and
intensity increasing late Friday into Saturday as showers and
embedded thunderstorms become more widespread. Southsouthwesterly
flow strengthens on Friday, supporting fair dispersions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  60  48  57 /  70  90  70  80
SSI  52  70  53  63 /  50  60  60  60
JAX  51  78  55  68 /  30  40  40  50
SGJ  57  80  60  72 /  10  10  30  40
GNV  53  79  61  73 /  10  30  40  50
OCF  56  80  62  76 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$