319
FXUS62 KJAX 270044
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
744 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A band of light showers is dispersing as it progresses across
southeast Georgia, moving eastward. Overnight and early morning
fog developments are still anticipated to develop over inland
areas and over southeast Georgia.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Clouds are moving through southeast and now into northeast FL,
with a very isolated shower so far over inland southeast GA. Temps
are in the 70s all areas.

Weak frontal boundary still expected to move into our southeast
GA zones tonight, perhaps a bit later than previous forecast. The
low level forcing with the front is quite weak, but some consistency
in the model output this afternoon to continue to show chance
showers along the front as it moves into the southeast GA area.
Still anticipate no mention of thunder given negligible instability
and a subsidence inversion around 10 kft. The main forecast challenge
will be the development of fog once again tonight and have continued
to advertise patchy to areas of fog over a fairly wide area, with
the best chance of dense fog expected roughly from around Baker
county westward through the Suwannee Valley area. With the front
stalling over southeast GA, this will give the fog a chance to
further develop with light winds and ample moisture available. Not
as cool tonight given the added moisture and some cloudiness at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

The frontal boundary near the FL/GA state border lifts northward
on Wednesday as a rapidly developing surface low moves through the
lower Plains and into the TN River Valley Wednesday into Thursday
morning. This low will drag a strong cold front through the SE US
with showers and storms entering inland SE GA by Thursday
afternoon. Models have come into better agreement with the timing
of the frontal passage with isolated to scattered showers and
storms moving through the area Thursday afternoon into late Friday
morning. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm capable of
producing gusty winds will be possible with this frontal passage
due to sufficient wind shear. The main limiting factors of severe
weather will be instability and a mostly nocturnal passage.
Showers will linger over NE FL on Friday as the cold front pushes
south into north-central FL. Breezy southwesterly flow ahead of
the front will maintain unseasonably warm weather through Thursday
with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the
mid 50s to low 60s. With increased low- level moisture and
light/calm winds, patchy to areas of inland fog is expected to
develop early Thursday morning, mainly along the I-75 corridor.
Fog may be locally dense at times.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

A dry and cold airmass settles over the region this weekend into
early next week as a strong upper trough parks over the eastern US
and strong surface high pressure builds across the CONUS.
Temperatures drop to below normal with highs only reaching into
the 50s/60s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight temperatures
plunge into the 30s inland and 40s along the coast and St. Johns
river basin. Inland frost will be possible Sunday and Monday
mornings, mainly for inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley. Overnight
inland temperatures Tuesday morning potentially drop to sub-
freezing/freezing likely setting up our first Freeze of the
season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to drop down to IFR and LIFR levels
beginning by around 09z and persisting until about 13z. Ceilings
will begin to lift MVFR and VFR levels by the late morning and
early afternoon hours with a slight potential for light showers
during this period, however low likelihood of development is
keeping it from being added to TAFs at this time. Winds will build
in from out of the southwest around this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

Good boating weather continues through Wednesday and Wednesday
night with high pressure located just south of the area resulting
in low winds and seas. Could see patchy fog however early Wednesday
morning mainly nearshore waters (e.g., right along the coast and
Intracoastal Waterway) north of Mayport. Otherwise, expect the
next strong cold front approaching the area Thanksgiving day and
moving in from the northwest Thursday night. Cold front moves into
our marine waters late Thursday night and decent agreement that the
front will be over northeast FL waters Friday morning and will continue
to push southeastward Friday. Potential for Small Craft Advisory
Friday through Friday night with breezy northerly winds and rough
seas expected over the weekend. Winds and seas for the weekend
look elevated mainly close to exercise caution level criteria.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk remains through at least Wednesday
and likely into Thursday with surf near 1-2 ft at best, with mainly
offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  75  61  77 /  10   0   0  30
SSI  61  73  63  77 /  20   0   0  10
JAX  59  78  60  80 /  10   0   0  10
SGJ  60  78  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  57  79  56  80 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  55  80  55  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$