065
FXUS62 KJAX 071908
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
308 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today through Tonight)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered showers and storms will continue developing through this
afternoon as prevailing westerly wind flow acts to pin the east
coast sea breeze near the shoreline. A second bout of convection
is anticipated later this evening, with stronger convection
anticipated to develop over southeast Georgia. High temperatures
for this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 90s with the heat
index rising values exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A deep and moist westerly flow will continue on Sunday with scattered
and numerous convection expected, and glancing affects from shortwave
troughs rounding the base of the persistent mid level trough in the
eastern CONUS. Over southeast GA, rain chances will remain more elevated
in the 50-70 percent range, and then generally 40-60 percent for northeast
FL. Some of the storms will be capable of producing strong gusty downburst
winds, locally heavy rainfall, and localized flooding, and along with
frequent lightning. Given some forcing aloft, convection may linger
well into the evening hours and even past midnight Sunday night
and Monday night. SPC shows a slight risk for severe for southeast
GA both on Sunday and Monday. Latest GFS output suggests storms may
be more organized then the past 1-2 days as shear may be increased
and temps aloft cool down to as low as -8 to -10C over southeast
GA.

Temps will be near and above normal during this period. Outside
of the convection, breezy daytime winds of west and southwest
winds of 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, are anticipated. This will
likely keep the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mid to upper level troughing affecting the eastern U.S. on Tuesday
into early Wednesday will lift out to the northeast from late
Wednesday and through Friday, while modest mid level ridging begins
to build in from the south. On Tuesday, weak sfc troughing is noted
across central GA and AL on Tuesday, and forcing aloft will give
way to at least scattered convection aided by sea breezes and
daytime heating. Some strong storms will be possible in our forecast
area as well mainly north half of the area and along the coast given
more favorable overlap of marginal shear values and instability.
This threat of strong to isolated severe storms may extend into
Wednesday as least one more shortwave trough may affect the area
before the large scale trough lifts out to the northeast. Sfc high
pressure will build northward into the area Thu and Fri with typical
summertime conditions and possibly slightly lower rain chances compared
to the past few days. Main threats with storms will be gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.

Temps look to be near climatology around 90 and lower 90s and
lows around 70 and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Scattered showers and storms will pass through the region this
afternoon with VCSH and VCTS for most sites through the evening,
with a second bout of convection expected in the evening and
overnight hours. Southwesterly wind flow will act to keep the east
coast sea breeze pinned close to the shoreline with winds becoming
more mild and variable overnight and then rebuilding from the SW
on Sunday. Potential for reported obscurations and lower ceilings
at Cecil near the latter portion of the forecasted period by
Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula through early next week, with this
feature maintaining a prevailing offshore wind flow across our
local waters. Showers and thunderstorms will develop inland early
each afternoon and will progress eastward across our local waters
during the mid to late afternoon hours each day. Strong to severe
storms will be possible late in the afternoon hours on Sunday and
Monday, especially across the Georgia waters. Stronger storms will
be capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. A frontal boundary
will stall to the northwest of our area towards midweek, with
Atlantic high pressure then expected to lift northward late next
week.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore flow and weak swell activity
will help minimize the rip current risk. Given the forecast sea
state and winds, we indicated low risk for the next couple of days
in the surf zone forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Min RH values will remain well above critical levels given the
moist airmass, but areas of high daytime dispersion are expected
the next 2-3 days due to the breezy surface and transport winds.
In some areas, dispersion indices may be well over 100.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Expected total rainfall through Tuesday morning is up to 1-2 inches
over southeast GA, and ranging from only a few hundreds to 3/4 inch
for northeast FL. More locally heavy rainfall upwards of around 3 inches
possible for southeast GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  72  90 /  30  50  60  70
SSI  77  92  76  90 /  30  50  60  70
JAX  76  96  74  93 /  30  50  30  60
SGJ  75  95  74  93 /  20  40  20  50
GNV  75  93  74  93 /  10  40  10  40
OCF  75  93  73  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$