952
FXUS62 KJAX 111043
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
543 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Small Craft Advisory This Morning, with Small Craft Advisory
  likely again Sunday night through Monday night.

- For Tonight, Light Freeze inland Southeast GA and Suwannee
  Valley, and Areas to Widespread Frost coastal GA and south
  part of Suwannee Valley.

- Freeze and Hard Freeze Possible for inland areas Late Sunday
  night and again Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A dry cold front will continue to pass through the area over the
early predawn hours this Morning. Behind the front, light to breezy
northwesterly winds will continue into the afternoon hours, ushering
in dry and cooler air from the northwest. Daytime highs in the mid
to upper 50s across SE GA and towards the I-10 corridor in NE FL,
while locations along and south of I-10 will be in the lower to mid
60s. High pressure builds and be centered overhead by Tonight. With
calm winds and clear skies, conditions will be prime for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures are expected to dip to or just
below freezing across inland SE GA and along the I-10 corridor west
of the JAX metro. As such the Freeze watch has been upgraded to a
Freeze Warning for these locations where we can expect a light
Freeze and widespread Frost to develop during the overnight hours
into Friday Morning. For locations south of the I-10 corridor and
coastal SE GA, Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, while coastal
locations in NE FL will mainly be in the lower 40s. A Frost Advisory
is also in place for locations bordering the freeze warned locations
of NE FL and coastal SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly zonal flow in the mid levels across the area Friday with some
backing occurring as southern stream energy moves through the Gulf
late Fri into Fri night. By Sat and Sat night, mid level troughing
will amplify across the region as a strong mid to upper level
trough/shortwave moves out of Canada into the Great Lakes and NE
CONUS. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear this period. At the
sfc, a weak ridge of high pressure will remain over central and
north central FL during the period resulting in a moderation of
temps, and winds that will remains light southwesterly for most
areas. Fairly seasonable temps this period. Highs on Friday in the
mid 60s north zones to lower 70s far south zones, and warming up a
bit more for Saturday to upper 60s north zones to mid 70s south
zones. Widespread lower to mid 40s on Friday night and a few degrees
warmer Saturday night, as low level winds come around to southwest
and increase slightly as a cold front approaches. In addition, with
pooling low level moisture, we have placed in some patchy fog for
inland areas around Suwannee Valley early Saturday morning, and
toward the south interior zones early Sunday morning, given the
light wind to calm wind and clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The strong mid/upper level trough across the northeast CONUS will
pivot across the east coast quickly, sending a cold front into the
area on Sunday. The cold front, possibly accompanied by a few
showers over southeast GA, will sweep through the area fairly
quickly with a rapid shift to the northwest behind the front and
much cooler and drier air filtering into southeast GA and northeast
FL. The 850 mb temps drop to about the 10-15 percentile per
climatology by late Sunday night and into Monday morning. The strong
1037 mb high pressure system behind the front will be positioned
over the TN valley Monday morning which will then shift southward
into Monday night and then shift eastward on Tuesday, leaving a
ridge axis across GA into Wed. Mid level heights will rise over the
region Tue- Wed as a potent mid to upper level trough moves into TX
and the northwest Gulf.

Temperatures will be a roller coaster of sorts with highs on Sunday
in the 60s over southeast GA, and lower 70s. Larger changes made
with this forecast with lows for Monday morning with potential for
hard freeze (mid 20s) for most of southeast GA, and a freeze over
the Suwannee Valley. Wind chills Monday morning may meet wind chill
advisory for the north half of the area. Highs on Monday well below
normal with only the 40s for southeast GA and lower to mid 50s for
northeast FL, with lower 60s for north central FL. Winds will be
breezy Sunday night into Monday with the coastal areas seeing north-
northeast winds gusting to about 30-35 mph.

Another cold morning Tuesday morning with similar lows in the mid to
upper 20s for southeast GA, and around 30-35 for inland northeast
FL. The coastal areas will not be as cold given the winds will be
turning onshore. "Warmer" on Tuesday with highs ranging from the
upper 50s for north zones around 70 far south zones. Temps moderate
by Wed morning but still chilly inland as low as 35-40 inland but
upper 40s to around 50 coast. Finally by Wednesday, afternoon temps
return to near climatology with some increase in clouds as mid level
winds veer aloft and moisture starts to return toward the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through this TAF period. However, toward the
end of the period after about 06Z-08Z Friday, there are low
chances of some vsby problems around GNV and VQQ down to at
least MVFR, but low confidence for any mention in the TAF at
this time. Otherwise, west to northwest winds of about 7-11 kt
will prevail today which will become light/variable or calm
after 00z Fri.

&&

.MARINE...

West to northwest winds will continue to strengthen Tonight as a dry
cold front moves across the area. Small Craft Advisory conditions
will persist over the local waters Tonight and continue until
Thursday morning. A high pressure center will build into the area
Thursday into Friday and then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead
of the next frontal boundary. This front will likely remain dry as
it crosses our local waters on Sunday night. Strong high pressure
building to the north of our region in the wake of this frontal
passage will result in strengthening northerly winds on Sunday night
that will shift to northeast on Monday. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are likely throughout our local waters from Sunday night
through Monday night. Gusts near gale force will be possible.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of rip currents across area beaches
today. Low Risk of rip currents by Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

For today, winds become northwesterly behind the passage of a weak
cold front, bringing cooler temperatures and drier air across the
area.  Min RHs drop into the lower to mid 30% range for most
locations today and Friday. Fair to Good Dispersions today will
trend downward by the end of the week with Poor dispersions across
north central Florida and Fair dispersions across southeast Georgia
on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  32  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  58  39  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  35  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  64  35  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  36  72  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-120-220-322-422-522.
     Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ031-035-124-
     136-225-232-236-425.
GA...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
     Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-
     452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-
     472-474.

&&

$$