Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
851 FXUS62 KJAX 091650 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1250 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Daily Thunderstorms through Monday, Mainly During the Afternoon and Evening Hours. - Isolated daily strong to severe storms possible. Main thunderstorm hazards: Locally damaging wind gusts & lightning - Exceptional to Extreme Drought continues Wildfire Risk && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Numerous Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms This afternoon and early evening, especially south of Waycross and along and north of I-10 Frontal boundary is analyzed just south of the FL/GA border this early afternoon, with scattered showers and t`storms are anticipated to develop through early evening with main impetus of focus is a short wave and front. The highest instability will be in area from south of Waycross to just south of I-10 where CAPES will exceed 1000. Also, in the aforementioned outlined area, a short wave is anticipated to move across the region this afternoon. Also, another area that may be have potential for strong convection is east of the I-95 corridor. The east coast sea breeze will be pinned by a light to moderate SSW flow today. A convergence zone may set up this very late afternoon or early evening as east coast sea breeze emerges near the intracoastal very late in the afternoon over Nassau and Duval Counties. With surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, the front and passing short wave, an isolated strong to possibly marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially closer to the frontal boundary and/or late afternoon sea breeze boundary. Primary hazard would be wind gusts of 40+ mph and perhaps a small hail producer with -10C a 500mb. There are a few prohibitive factors: a little dry pocket at 800 mb, lack of sheer, and antecedent cloud cover, albeit it is thin cloud cover. Some areas will struggle to get to their convective temperature which is near 90 degrees per 12z JAX Upper Air Flight. There has been a couple lightning strikes noted in western Ware County Georgia at 1245 pm. There will be a big disparity of high temps this afternoon. Forecast highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Waycross northward to the Altamaha, to the lower 90s toward the Villages and southern Flagler. Plenty of cloud cover and intermittent rain will temper maximums near the Altamaha and less cloud cover and minimized precip chances will keep it quite toasty across north central FL. Most activity will come to an end late this evening similar to Friday Night, aside from some isolated showers/light rain lingering thanks to the boundary remaining nearly stationary over the area. Lows tonight will be mild, in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered Showers & T`storms Sunday across Southeast GA and Northeast FL - Stronger Cold Frontal Passage Likely Monday Potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue on into Sunday and become more widespread on Monday as the moist flow south of the stalled frontal boundary to the north continues to bring southwesterly flowing moist air in from out of the gulf to with convection development anticipated to be enhanced with daytime heating and in conjunction with intermittent upper level short waves passing over the region from out of the northwest. A cold front pressing in towards the forecast area overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Possible threats associated with stronger storms will be gusty winds, small hail, High temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week will be in the lower to mid 80s for southeast Georgia and in the upper 80s to lower 90s for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower to mid 60s for southeast Georgia and in the 60s to lower 70s for northeast Florida. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Drier Conditions Look to Return Tuesday/Wednesday Cold front will gradually cross over the region on Tuesday and into Wednesday, with breezy northeasterly onshore winds building in the afternoon on Tuesday and then becoming more mild and variable as high pressure following the frontal passage settles in over the forecast area by Wednesday. Dry weather with clearing skies will be in place through the end of the week. Temperatures will be below the seasonal average following the fropa on Tuesday with daily high temps experiencing a warming trend through the end of the week, max temps rising to above average levels after midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Scattered SHRA and TSRA will prevail this afternoon and early evening (19z to 02z) for terminals north of I-10 with VCTS to PROB30 south of I-10 this late afternoon and evening with less coverage south of I-10. MVFR conditions are possible with post storm stratiform low clouds and light rain from 02 to 05z mainly for terminals north of I-10. Rain coverage wanes late this evening with VFR conditions through 12z. The exception is for terminals that get locally heavy rainfall, where patchy fog is possible between 10z and 12z. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary near the FL/GA border will be stationary this weekend. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this weekend, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible. A stronger cold front will then push through the local waters on Monday. Northwesterly winds will strengthen to Caution levels late Monday evening in the wake of the frontal passage, with winds quickly shifting to northerly Monday Night and increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels on Tuesday as high pressure builds north of the region. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected this weekend and likely into early next week, with surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet. Next chance of solid Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is next Tuesday with surge of Northeast winds expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions NE Fl This Weekend - Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Next Week A frontal boundary will linger across the area through the rest of the weekend, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving east along it. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon hours will bring potential for gusty winds 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, small hail and heavy downpours. A cold front will move southeast across the area Monday into Monday night with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe storms. High pressure will build to the north on Tuesday with breezy northeast winds, then build east northeast mid week. After another front moves through on Thursday, high pressure ridging will build overhead Friday. Dispersions will be high Tuesday into Thursday due to increased transport winds and increasing mixing heights. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog developments are not expected for tonight. Gusty and erratic winds can occur in and near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 64 83 65 / 70 40 50 40 SSI 81 70 82 70 / 80 30 60 40 JAX 85 68 87 68 / 70 40 60 20 SGJ 87 71 88 71 / 50 30 60 10 GNV 87 69 89 69 / 40 20 50 10 OCF 89 70 90 71 / 20 10 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$