610
FXUS62 KJAX 030115
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
815 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today

- Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters Today

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed &Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rain SE GA Friday & Saturday

&&

.UPDATE...

Low stratus clouds will spread from SE GA into NE FL as a cold
front exits south of the area with light northwest winds as high
pressure builds in from the northwest, with winds limiting any
fog potential overnight. Drier airmass will filter into the area
with colder temperatures arriving into SE GA well after midnight
where lows will fall to the mid/upper 30s west of highway 301
with cool low to mid 40s along I-10 and low 50s over the NE FL
coast into north central FL. Adjusted overnight lows a couple of
degrees down this evening based on guidance trends and included
more mention of patchy frost forming north and west of Waycross
in the predawn morning hours.

High pressure will build eastward Wednesday more north of the region
with skies trending mostly sunny under cirrus aloft. Winds from the
northwest will remain light 5-10 mph with cooler highs in the upper
50s to low 60s over SE GA and mid/upper 60s over most of NE FL with
near 70 values from Ocala Natl Forest into central FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front will move southeast of the area this evening, taking
rain with it. High pressure will build from the northwest overnight.
Weak troughing over the coastal waters, will help hold cloud cover
in place. Temperatures will drop behind the front overnight, with
lows ranging from the middle 30s over inland SE GA to the lower 50s
over coastal NE FL. Winds will drop enough for frost to develop over
inland SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A dry and cold air mass will move into the region as high pressure
builds in from the north behind yesterday`s cold front passage.
Light northwest flow will continue to usher in cooler air into the
area, with temperatures expected to trend nearly 10 degrees cooler
than Tuesday in some locations. Daytime highs in the mid to upper
50s along far interior SE GA locations, while highs in the 60s along
inland SE GA locations and most of NE FL, with the southern portions
of north central FL counties in the lower 70s. The cooler air being
brought into the area will bring overnight lows in the mid to upper
30s across SE GA, while lower to upper 40s along NE FL and coastal
locations. With near calm winds expected during the overnight hours,
some patchy frost could develop along SE GA locations.

By Thursday an area of low pressure near the Gulf coast will cause
for a warm front to begin to lift across FL. Temperatures will be a
bit warmer than Wednesday. Daytime highs will mainly be in the 60s
along SE GA towards the I-10 corridor in NE FL, cooler temperatures
along SE GA locations. While daytime highs for locations south of
the I-10 corridor will be in the lower 70s, warmer temperatures
along north central FL. Dry conditions will persist through most of
the day, with some light rain or sprinkles for the far interior
locations of SE GA during the afternoon hours and into the overnight
hours into Friday morning as chances of precipitation increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another cold front is expected to pass into the area during the end
of the week and then pushing south of the local area by late
Saturday night/Sunday morning as its associated area of low pressure
over the Gulf coast lifts northeastward and then south. Scattered to
numerous chances of showers and thunderstorms look to develop
beginning Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Chances begin
to lessen by Saturday night, but still expect scattered chances
through Sunday. With southwesterly flow over the area prior to the
front`s passage Saturday, moisture brought in from the Gulf will
likely allow for some periods of high rainfall amounts, some
guidance suggesting 2" to 4" primarily for locations across SE GA.
WPC currently has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over SE GA
on Friday, with the Marginal Risk shifting southward to encompass
most of SE GA and NE FL on Saturday as the cold front pushes across
our area.

Cold conditions continue during the start of the upcoming week as
guidance suggests the arrival of another, albeit drier, frontal
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
The 00Z TAF period will feature ceilings quickly lowering to low end
MVFR levels 1.0-1.5 kft, continuing overnight, with IFR level tempo
restrictions in stratus late tonight after 08Z at times through 13Z.
Conditions are expected to improve to VFR after 14Z Wednesday during
the morning hours, and continue through the afternoon with light
northwest winds.

&&

.MARINE...


The cold front will move southeast of the area Tonight. Troughing
will linger over coastal waters into Wednesday, as high pressure
builds to the northwest. The high will build to the north Thursday.
An area of low pressure will move northeast out of the Gulf Friday,
with the frontal system associated with this low lingering over the
region through the weekend.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Wednesday
              NE FL Moderate Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY...



Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue through the rest
of this afternoon, beginning to dwindle by the evening hours as the
cold front moves through the area. High pressure builds over the
area after the front`s passage, allowing for cooler and dry
conditions to develop once again through midweek. Light northwest
winds become established after the front`s passage, with Poor to
Fair dispersions developing on Wednesday, becoming Poor by Thursday.
The next round of showers and storms expected Thursday evening into
the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure will lift northeast
out of the Gulf late in the week, bringing another cold front to
push across the area during the upcoming weekend.


FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Significant fog is not expected
tonight. Patchy frost possible Tonight and Wednesday Night for
locations in southeast Georgia. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible with thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  58  35  61 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  45  62  45  64 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  45  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  52  68  49  70 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  49  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  52  69  44  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$