781
FXUS62 KJAX 260540
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected overnight at VQQ.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
confined to inland locations south of the Interstate 10 corridor
on Saturday afternoon. Confidence was only high enough for
vicinity shower mentions at JAX and VQQ after 18Z, with vicinity
thunderstorms possible at GNV after 20Z. Showers and
thunderstorms that manage to develop should dissipate shortly
after 00Z along the Interstate 75 corridor. Light and variable
winds overnight will become northwesterly shortly after sunrise,
with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots by 15Z. The Atlantic and Gulf
coast sea breezes will then move inland by early afternoon,
shifting surface winds to easterly at SGJ and southeasterly at SSI
by 17Z, with speeds then increasing to around 10 knots by 18Z.
Light and variable surface winds at GNV and VQQ will shift to
southwesterly at 5-10 knots after 20Z. Surface winds will then
diminish after 00Z at the inland terminals, while winds shift to
southwesterly around 5 knots for the coastal terminals by 02Z
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night)

Stacked high pressure will remain over the SE US for the weekend
diminishing rain chances and beginning a warming trend. Despite
decent low level moisture, drier mid levels and strengthening
subsidence will result in limited convective coverage with mainly
isolated showers and storms developing over inland NE FL as the
sea breezes shift inland. The combination of strong subsidence and
less storm coverage will lead to temperatures rising to well
above seasonable and close to record. Highs on Saturday will be in
the low 90s along the coast to the mid/upper 90s inland with Heat
Advisories being posted. Highs on Sunday approach record in the
mid 90s to around 100 F. A slight increase in moisture on Sunday
will help heat indices climb to Heat Advisory (108-112 F) area-
wide, with some isolated areas reaching Extreme Heat criteria
(heat index 113+ F). Overnight lows will be in the mid/upper 70s
to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Dangerous heat continues early next week with potential record
highs in the mid/upper 90s to low 100s and peak heat indices
rising to Heat Advisory and on the precipice Extreme Heat Warning
criteria (108-113+ F). Stacked high pressure over the SE US
weakens and retrogrades over the Mid South and Arklatex region
Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances increase through the week with
departing subsidence and a stream of upper impulses across the
region bringing an increase of moisture and merging inland
seabreeze regime with light gradient in place. Temperatures slowly
adjust down mid to late week but still remain above seasonable.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure to the east will shift westward across
Florida this weekend and suppress thunderstorm activity through
early next week. As high pressure continues west its influence
will weaken resulting in the return of moisture and increased
chances of afternoon thunderstorms over the local waters. Until
thunderstorm activity returns next week, the general flow will
vary but light allowing the sea breeze development early each day.

Rip Currents...A moderate southeasterly swell and the afternoon
Atlc sea breeze will lead to a low-end moderate risk through the
weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites...

                     SAT 7/26   SUN 7/27   MON 7/28   TUE 7/29

Jacksonville, FL     102/1872   100/1872   104/1872   100/1875
Gainesville, FL      100/1952   101/1893   97/2010    99/1896
Craig Airport, FL    97/2012    99/2010    98/2016    101/2016
Alma, GA (AMG)       101/2012   99/2014    100/2006   99/2016

Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites...

                     SAT 7/26   SUN 7/27   MON 7/28   TUE 7/29

Jacksonville, FL     86/1872    85/1872    80/1885    80/1877
Gainesville, FL      78/2018    77/2010    77/2014    77/1899
Craig Airport, FL    79/2015    80/2010    80/2014    79/2017
Alma, GA (AMG)       77/2010    77/2018    78/2014    77/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  76  99  77 /  10   0  10   0
SSI  95  81  96  82 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  98  78  99  78 /  20   0  10   0
SGJ  93  78  94  79 /  20   0  10   0
GNV  97  76  99  78 /  40  10  20   0
OCF  95  76  97  77 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-
     522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ134>136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$