513
FXUS62 KJAX 040552
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the forecast
area from south to north overnight and into Wednesday as the
trough continues moving towards the north. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s for inland areas
and in the lower to mid 70s along the coastline.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The region will be between high pressure to the northeast, and a
developing inverted trough over southern FL this afternoon and
evening. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage from south to north.

The inverted trough will move north across forecast area Tonight. As
a result shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase. The
greatest chance will be near the coast where the best
convergence will be. With a humid airmass in place, lows will be
the lower 70s Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Cutoff troughing over the eastern Gulf tonight will lift slowly
northward across the FL panhandle on Wednesday as weak surface
low pressure develops along this storm system`s retreating warm
front over northeast FL. This weather pattern will create
southerly flow aloft that will transport deep tropical moisture
into our area, with waves of downpours and embedded thunderstorms
expected to traverse our area through Wednesday evening. A few
strong storms will be possible along the Atlantic coast in the
vicinity of the weak surface low pressure and retreating warm
frontal boundary, with gusty winds of 40-50 mph, frequent
lightning strikes, and blinding downpours possible within stronger
convection. Plenty of cloud cover will keep highs on Wednesday
uniformly in the low to mid 80s, with southerly flow on Wednesday
night resulting in lows from the upper 60s to around 70 inland,
ranging to the 70-75 range at coastal locations.

Weak low pressure will lift north-northeastward along the
Carolina coast by late Wednesday night and Thursday, allowing
deep-layered flow to shift to south-southwesterly across our
region. Low-level troughing will extend south-southwestward
from this feature across our region, with tropical moisture
lingering along this trough axis. A few breaks in the
mulit-layered cloud cover on Thursday morning across our
area will allow highs to reach the mid and upper 80s, setting
the stage for widespread convection during the afternoon and
early evening hours, with a few strong storms possible along
the U.S.-301 and I-95 corridors as southwesterly flow
potentially focuses mesoscale boundary collisions over our
eastern counties. Stronger storms will again present a localized
flood threat, in addition to gusty downburst winds of 40-50 mph
and frequent lightning strikes. Convection should wane on
Thursday evening as a dry slot potentially shifts over our
region, with lows only falling to the upper 60s to around 70
inland and the low to mid 70s at coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the FL peninsula
late this week as organizing surface low pressure lifts
north-northeastward along the U.S. eastern seaboard. A dry slot
should keep things dry during the morning hours, but temperatures
climbing into the lower 90s should provide enough instability for
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
to develop, with a deep westerly flow focusing convection late in
the day along the I-95 corridor. Atlantic high pressure will remain
displaced to the south of our region on Saturday, keeping a deep
westerly flow pattern in place, creating a typical diurnal summertime
weather pattern of scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in place across our area, with stronger
storms again possible late in the day along the I-95 corridor. Highs
on Saturday will likely climb into the mid 90s, with maximum heat
index values soaring up to around 105 degrees. Lows this weekend
will only fall to the 70-75 range.

Troughing aloft will dig southeastward from the Great Lakes
states early next week, which will shift flow aloft from westerly
to southwesterly. Shortwave troughs migrating along the base of
this trough across the Deep South should enhance diurnal
convective activity from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon, especially across southeast GA, where widespread
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will likely limit highs to the
85-90 range. Southwesterly flow will likely delay the development
of the Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon, allowing highs in the
lower 90s across northeast and north central FL to extend to
coastal locations. Lows will continue to remain in the 70-75 range
at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

SHRA will continue to affect all airfields through most of the
forecast period, with coastal sites at highest risk for heavier
SHRA and brief TSRA through the morning hours. Lower ceilings and
vsbys, dropping to at least MVFR levels, will also be expected at
times with SHRA. Have left out TSRA/VCTS wording at the latest
update due to chances being low, however updates/amendments may
be needed for any isolated TSRA that develop. Have kept VCTS and
PROB30 groups for convection later today that will likely be
enhanced with diurnal heating, with TEMPO groups likely later this
morning. MVFR ceilings and vsbys look to continue towards the end
of the forecast period as well, in addition to mainly easterly
onshore winds starting to shift towards the southeast to south
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

High pressure will be northeast of the area over the next few days.
An inverted trough will move up the coast of the FL peninsula
through Tonight, then along the SE GA coast Wednesday morning, then
to the Carolinas Wednesday afternoon. Troughing will remain near the
coast of the Carolinas through Thursday night, with a weak high
pressure ridge stretching across south FL. A cold front is expected
to move into the southeastern US over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Breezy easterly transport winds across southeast GA on Wednesday
morning will shift to southeasterly during the afternoon hours,
while breezy southeasterly transport winds across northeast and
north central FL will shift to southerly during the afternoon
hours. These breezy conditions will counter widespread cloud cover
and rainfall, yielding fair daytime dispersion values at inland
locations and poor values at coastal locations on Wednesday.
Transport winds will shift to southwesterly on Thursday, creating
fair to good daytime dispersion values at most locations. Breezy
westerly transport winds are forecast on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a "Marginal"
Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall across our
entire area on Wednesday. While much of the rainfall will be
beneficial for our area, localized flooding is possible wherever
downpours redevelop and "train" repeatedly over the same locations,
with urban, coastal, and normally flood prone (low-lying) locations
having a greater risk to experience flooding from heavy downpours.
Widespread 1-3 inch totals are forecast through Thursday evening, with
locally higher totals up to 4-6 inches possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  68  86  68 /  70  40  80  30
SSI  82  72  85  73 /  80  60  70  40
JAX  84  70  88  71 /  80  60  80  40
SGJ  83  71  87  72 /  80  60  80  30
GNV  85  70  89  71 /  70  50  70  30
OCF  85  70  89  71 /  70  50  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$