857
FXUS62 KJAX 232357
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
657 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Winds will continue to calm as a surface high slides eastward and
overhead through the night. Excellent cooling under clear skies
should lead to the coldest night of the season with some localized
areas falling to near freezing. That said, freezing temperatures
will be very localized but the first initial widespread frost is
likely at inland areas (west of I-95) from roughly Gainesville
north. There have been no changes with tonight`s Frost Advisory.
Lows will generally be in the low/mid 30s inland and upper 30s to
low 40s at the coast and north-central FL tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1259 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure still on track to build directly over the NE FL/SE GA
region later today into tonight. Winds go near calm after sunset
this evening and set the stage for excellent radiational cooling
conditions and expect widespread low temps in the middle 30s
inland SE GA and most of inland NE FL along and NW of a line from
Brunswick, GA to Jacksonville, FL to Gainesville, FL and have
posted a Frost Advisory for late tonight through sunrise Sunday
morning for widespread frost potential. Otherwise expecting upper
30s along the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River Basin south of JAX
with patchy/areas of frost expected. Along the Atlantic
Coast/beachfront locations expect low temps in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1259 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

It`ll be a cold start Sunday, with early morning temperatures in
the 30s to 40s across the area, any frost formation will hang
around through about 8am. Sunny skies and calm winds are forecast
for Sunday and monday, with high temperatures warming back up to
near normal on Sunday and above normal Monday. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to low 70s Sunday, and 70s area-wide on Monday, lows
will stay chilly Sunday night, dropping into the 40s inland and
lower 50s near the coast, warming up quite a bit Monday night,
staying above the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1259 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Thanksgiving
day, with highs reaching the 70s to lower 80s each day, with dry
conditions expected as high pressure sits overhead through mid-
week. A front will approach later this week, likely passing
through the area on Thursday night, bringing potential for showers
mainly north of I-10 Thursday through Friday, with precipitation
potential at about 20-40%. Temperatures will cool down again
Friday through the weekend following the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Clear VFR conditions and light winds, favoring a westerly
direction, expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Diminishing NW winds this afternoon as High pressure builds over
the local waters tonight and remains in place through Monday with
no headlines expected. Next frontal boundary pushes into the
region on Tuesday but is much weaker and stalls just northwest of
the local waters with offshore flow remaining below headline
levels as high pressure ridge holds just south of the local waters
through Wednesday. Next much stronger cold frontal boundary
approaches on Thursday with increasing SW winds followed by
another round of likely SCA level Northwest winds around 20 knots
or so on Friday.

Rip Currents: Light offshore flow and surf/breakers of only 1-2 ft will
support a low risk of rip currents through the weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1259 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

High pressure building into the area will allow for northwest winds
to become near calm by Sunday, this will bring daytime dispersions
to poor levels area-wide. Drier air is also in place for the next
few days, however minRH values will remain above critical levels,
moisture will begin to return on Tuesday. The chilly overnight
temperatures and near calm winds will also allow for some frost to
develop during the early hours on Sunday mainly over inland
southeast Georgia and portions of inland northeast Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  34  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  43  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  66  38  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  66  44  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  36  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  36  72  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422-425-522.

GA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$