281
FXUS62 KJAX 081844
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
144 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145M EST Fri Nov 8 2024

MVFR ceilings and vicinity showers will continue through around
20Z at VQQ, with periods of MVFR ceilings and a brief shower
possible at GNV through around 22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through at least 05Z at the regional terminals. Fog and
low stratus ceilings will develop overnight after 06Z at SSI, with
coverage expanding inland during the predawn and early morning
hours to the rest of the terminals. LIFR visibilities are expected
to develop at VQQ after 08Z, with LIFR ceilings likely developing
at SSI towards 10Z. IFR conditions will otherwise likely develop at
GNV, JAX and CRG by 11Z, while the onset of MVFR ceilings at SGJ
may not occur until around 13Z Saturday. Ceilings will be slow to
lift during the mid to late morning hours on Saturday, with IFR
conditions potentially prevailing through around 16Z at VQQ and
SSI, while ceilings elsewhere generally improve to MVFR towards
15Z. Showers may also approach the Duval County terminals, SSI,
and SGJ from the east and northeast towards the end of the TAF
period. Confidence in the timing and coverage of showers remains
too low to indicate anything other than vicinity coverage at this
time. East-northeasterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots
this afternoon will become northeasterly as speeds diminish after
sunset. A surge of northeasterly winds will then arrive at the SSI
and SGJ coastal terminals by 16Z Saturday, as surface speeds
increase to 10-15 knots and gusty, with sustained speeds
elsewhere increasing to around 10 knots by 17Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Late morning surface analysis depicts a wavy frontal boundary
extending from the North Carolina Outer Banks west-southwestward
across the Appalachians and the lower Mississippi Valley, with a
wave of low pressure (1009 millibars) poised to organize along
this boundary over west Texas. Meanwhile, compact Category 2
Hurricane Rafael (961 millibars) is finally beginning to show
signs of gradual weakening as it pushes slowly westward across
central portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, a cold front
was pushing east-southeastward across the northern Great Lakes and
the Upper Midwest, with high pressure (1028 millibars) building in
the wake of this boundary across the Plains states. Aloft...stout
ridging remains in place over the FL peninsula, while broad
troughing prevails over the Great Lakes, New England, and the
Mid-Atlantic states. A deep, cutoff upper level low remains nearly
stationary near the Four Corners region and the southern Rockies,
which was creating a persistent and massive snowstorm for those
regions.

Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates that an unseasonably moist air mass is positioned across
our area, with PWATS generally in the 1.7 - 2 inch range, with
the morning sounding at Jacksonville registering a record high
PWAT value of 1.93 inches. A slightly drier air mass prevails
across north central FL, where PWAT values were closer to 1.5
inches. Early to mid-morning fog and low stratus cloud cover that
impacted southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley have lifted to form
a healthy cumulus field that is now in place area-wide, while
cirrus emanating from distant Rafael continues to stream across
our region as well. Isolated, slow moving showers have developed
beneath this multi-layered cloudiness, generally along the U.S.
Highway 301 and Interstate 95 corridors. Temperatures at 16Z
ranged from the mid 70s across inland southeast GA to the low and
mid 80s across northeast and north central FL, with these values
already approaching daily record highs for November 8th (see
Climate Section below for details) before the noon hour!

Low and mid-level ridging centered over our area early this
afternoon will gradually retrograde westward tonight and Saturday,
allowing for a slightly drier air mass to advect into our region.
Isolated showers will continue to be possible through this evening
in the unseasonably warm and humid air mass, with ridging aloft
providing enough subsidence to preclude any chances for
thunderstorm development. Highs this afternoon will soar to the
mid and upper 80s for inland northeast and north central FL, while
lower 80s prevail elsewhere. Heat index values are expected to
climb to the lower 90s for locations west of I-95 in northeast and
north central FL.

High pressure building southeastward across the Great Lakes states
tonight will begin to push a "backdoor" cold front down the
southeastern seaboard, with our local pressure gradient beginning
to tighten along the immediate coast towards sunrise. Shower
activity along and ahead of this approaching backdoor cold front
should remain offshore through sunrise, with fog and low stratus
ceilings developing across most of inland southeast GA and the
Suwannee Valley during the overnight and predawn hours, with dense
fog possible across inland portions of southeast GA. Lows tonight
will only fall to the mid and upper 60s inland, ranging to the
lower 70s along the immediate Atlantic coast (see Climate Section
below for details on record warm minimum temperatures).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

As Hurricane Raphael moves slowly, but further away westward
across the Gulf of Mexico a backdoor cold front will move south
across the Atlantic waters adjacent to the east coast of the US
and approach our area. Strong high pressure, created by strong
ridging in the mid/upper levels on the heels of a potent trough
swinging across the NE US into the western Atlantic, will build
across the eastern Great Lakes and wedge southward along the east
coast and enhance the pressure gradient locally, leading to breezy
onshore ENE winds 10-15 mph with higher gusts to 25 mph at the
beaches. After morning fog, isolated to scattered coastal showers
will move onshore ahead of the backdoor front Saturday afternoon
with mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be slightly lower as a result
of the increasing onshore flow and mostly cloudy with upper 70s to
around 80 at the coast, low 80s over inland SE GA and the mid 80s
over inland NE FL south of I-10.

The front will move into the area Saturday night and then stall
into Sunday as the strong high emerges from coastal New England
and dive SE into the western Atlantic waters. Winds will veer more
ESE, but remain breezy. Enough moisture will support isolated
showers near the coast. Highs will be in the low 80s for much of
the area. Lows Saturday and Sunday will fall into the upper 60s
inland and in the low 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

With the exception of isolated coastal showers moving onto the
coast Monday as some residual higher moisture remains, a dry
pattern is mostly expected next week as a series of cold fronts
pass through the area with the bulk of their moisture staying
to the north while Rafael weakens over the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Light southerly winds Monday will allow for a
weak Atlantic seabreeze with winds turning to the NW and north
on Tuesday behind the first cold front as Canadian high pressure
builds quickly south into the east coast. Winds will veer NE
Wednesday before another cold front arrives with even drier air
Thursday as high pressure builds in from the NW.

Temperatures will begin the period above normal and trend to near
normal by the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

A weak pressure pattern will prevail across our local waters
through tonight, resulting in light onshore winds. Seas of 3-4
feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through tonight.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael will gradually weaken during the
weekend as it moves westward across the central Gulf of Mexico and
then meanders well away from any land masses late this weekend
and early next week.

Strong high pressure building over the Great Lakes region tonight
will slide southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast by
Saturday night, pushing a cold front southward across our local
waters, accompanied by showers. Northeasterly winds will
strengthen to Caution levels of 15-20 knots on Saturday afternoon,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely developing offshore
by early Saturday evening as seas build to 6-8 feet. Caution level
winds of 15-20 knots and seas of 4-6 feet will prevail on Saturday
night, followed by seas building to 5-7 feet on Sunday, resulting
in a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions near shore.
High pressure will then weaken as it slides offshore of the U.S.
eastern seaboard on Sunday afternoon and evening, allowing winds
and seas to gradually diminish. A weak frontal boundary will then
push southeastward across our local waters on Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Breakers of 3-4 feet will prevail at area beaches
today and Saturday, with a moderate risk expected today and a
moderate to possibly high risk by Saturday afternoon as onshore
winds increase to 15-20 mph. A high risk is expected at all area
beaches on Sunday, as breakers peak in the 4-5 foot range.
Onshore winds will then diminish on Monday, resulting in a
moderate risk at area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1132 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Light east-northeasterly surface and transport winds across inland
southeast GA this afternoon will result in low daytime dispersion
values. Slightly stronger surface and transport winds for
locations along the Interstate 10 corridor and along the Atlantic
coast will yield generally poor daytime dispersion values, with
fair values expected across north central FL. East-northeasterly
surface and transport winds will strengthen on Saturday area-wide,
with fair daytime dispersion values for locations along and north
of the Interstate 10 corridor, with good values forecast for
locations south of I-10 on Saturday afternoon. Breezy east-
southeasterly surface and transport winds are then expected area-
wide on Sunday, creating good values for the Suwannee Valley and
north central FL, while generally fair values continue elsewhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1132 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Record High Temperatures at our designated climate sites through
Tuesday:

                11/8      11/9      11/10     11/11     11/12
               --------------------------------------------------

Jacksonville    85/2017   88/1986   86/2023   87/1986   87/1986
Gainesville     89/2018   88/1986   87/2023   89/2023   87/2018
Alma, GA        86/2000   87/1986   85/2023   85/2020   84/2020
Craig Airport   84/2020   85/2018   84/1979   85/1998   85/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures at our designated climate sites
through Tuesday:

                11/8       11/9      11/10      11/11    11/12
               --------------------------------------------------

Jacksonville    71/1946   72/2020    73/2020   76/2020   69/2020
Gainesville     70/2015   72/2020    72/2020   73/2020   70/1975
Alma, GA        68/2020   69/2020    72/2020   73/2020   71/2020
Craig Airport   71/2020   74/2020    76/2020   78/2020   73/2020

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  80  66  79 /  10  20  30  30
SSI  69  77  71  78 /  10  50  70  40
JAX  68  81  68  83 /  20  60  50  30
SGJ  71  81  72  81 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  67  84  68  85 /  10  20  20  10
OCF  67  85  68  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$