157
FXUS62 KJAX 031236
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
836 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast on track as breezy Southeast to South flow will increase
once again this afternoon to 15-20G25-30 mph, with strongest winds
behind the East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic Coast. This
flow pattern will continue record warmth across the local area
with highs around 90F over inland areas and into the lower/middle
80s along the Atlantic Coast. Current PWATs are running between 1
to 1.25 inches aloft and this may be enough to trigger an isolated
shower along the East Coast sea breeze as it pushes inland this
afternoon and early evening hours, but overall rainfall chances
still remain at 20% or less.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast Today, then
to the east Tonight. Gusty onshore flow will prevail Today near the
coast. Convergence of the east coast sea breeze, and Gulf breeze is
expected over inland counties this afternoon. With this convergence
happening during the heat of the day, a few showers could form. Have
included low chance for this in forecast. With ridging at the
surface, and a ridge aloft, expect enough subsidence to limit
thunderstorm potential. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will
range from east to west Today, with highs in the lower 80s at the
coast, to around 90 inland.

Any showers that formed this afternoon, will dissipate this evening
with loss of diurnal heating. Tonight will be a dry night, with
temperatures above normal. Lows in the mid to upper 60s will be
common.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Friday & Saturday...

Near record high temperatures near 90 degrees continue daily
inland under strong deep layer subsidence and mostly sunny skies
as RH in the 700-500 mb layer drops below 10%. Inland highs near
90 while coastal locales range in the 80s thanks to the east coast
sea breeze. Will see gradual eastward shift in the hotter temps
from areas near the I-75 corridor Friday to between I-75 and
Highway 301 Saturday as the stronger 500 mb ridge center shifts
slightly east of the FL peninsula and SE steering flow becomes
more southerly, enabling both Atlantic and Gulf coast breezes to
drift inland but still too dry for rain chances > 10%. Gusty ESE
winds of 20-30 mph will impact locations locations inland toward
the St. Johns River basin each afternoon trailing the east coast
sea breeze. Mild overnight low temperatures will range in the 60s
with patchy inland fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Sunday & Monday...Above normal heat and mostly dry conditions
continue Sunday with increasingly gusty WSW as the next frontal
system approaches from the west with consensus guidance still
showing low (< 30%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of
the rainfall and thunderstorm risk will shift west to east across
the area Sunday night into Monday. Model trends are starting to
suggest a re-intensification of convection is possible across
SE/FL early Monday as upper level forcing and lift increases
aloft. The Storm Prediction Center now has SE GA highlighted in
the "Slight" Risk area (15% of severe weather) Sunday Night (Day
4). Based on the latest model trends, strong to severe storm risk
may translate eastward across the remainder of SE GA and NE FL
into Monday, with drier conditions trailing the frontal passage
Monday night.

Tuesday & Wednesday...Drier air filters across SE GA into Tuesday
in the wake of the frontal passage with a few linger mainly
coastal showers possible for NE FL as breezy NNE flow develops. A
cool down next week trailing the frontal passage with temperatures
falling near and below climo values for early April with high
temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue and lows ranging in
the 40s to 50s. At this time, good agreement in ensemble models
keeping low temperatures above frost potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MVFR stratus at NE FL TAF sites this morning, while LIFR stratus
will continue at SSI through 13Z before lifting to MVFR later this
morning. Otherwise becoming VFR at all sites by late morning with
increasing SE winds to 10-15G20 knots as the East Coast sea breeze
pushes inland and a brief shower is possible but chances too low
to include in the TAF set at this time. Winds diminish after
sunset with another round of MVFR stratus expected again late in
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High pressure will be centered to the northeast through Tonight,
then toward the east Friday through Saturday night. The high will
move away to the east Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The front will move through Monday into Monday
night, with a round of showers and thunderstorms expected. A
secondary front will move southeast across area Tuesday. High
pressure will build to the northwest then north mid week.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Friday
              NE FL: High Today, Moderate Friday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Mostly dry today with a low chance of an afternoon shower mainly
across inland NE Florida. Prevailing SE winds will gust near 30
mph this afternoon near the Atlantic coast. Above normal high
temperatures near 90 with elevated transport winds will create
high inland dispersion today.

Continued hot but drier Friday under SE winds. Inland minimum
humidly west of Highway 301 will fall between 35-40%, still above
local critical values. Wind gusts near 25 mph are possible near
the Atlantic coast trailing the east coast sea breeze.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites

      4/3      4/4      4/5      4/6

AMG   90       90       90       90
      1967     1963     2023     1967

JAX   89       90       91       90
      2017     2011     2017     1947

CRG   90       88       91       87
      2006     2012     2017     2022

GNV   91       91       90       90
      2017     1974     2023     2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  66  89  64 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  79  68  78  67 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  89  67  88  65 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  85  69  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  92  67  91  64 /  20  20   0   0
OCF  93  67  92  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$