Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
568 FXUS62 KJAX 082351 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 751 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026 .NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Daily Thunderstorms through Monday, Mainly During the Afternoon & Evening SE GA & NE FL. Isolated daily strong to severe storms possible. Main thunderstorm hazards: Locally damaging wind gusts & lightning - Exceptional to Extreme Drought continues Wildfire Risk && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible this Afternoon, Mainly for Locations South of the Interstate 10 Corridor. Stronger Storms Could Produce Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, Locally Heavy Downpours, and Possibly Some Hail. Rest of this Afternoon: Frontal boundary has slowed to near stalling across NE FL, generally along a line from Gainesville to Palm Coast and will be the focus for scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening, mainly south of the I-10 corridor, a few of which could be strong to severe with gusty winds to 40-60 mph, small hail and locally heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy skies continue across the region but a few sunny breaks will allow for Max temps well into the mid/upper 80s south of the I-10 corridor of NE FL and generally in the upper 70s/lower 80s north of the stalled frontal boundary. Tonight: Convection across NE FL should fade after sunset, with scattered shower and isolated storm activity possible area-wide through the evening hours, then refocusing across SE GA during the overnight hours, while NE FL remains mostly cloudy with patchy low clouds and fog developing towards morning. Low temps will remain above normal with lower/middle 60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s inland NE FL and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coastal Areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this period, mainly in the afternoon hours Frontal boundary will linger west to east across NE FL through the weekend. Waves of energy are expected to move east along and north of the boundary. The combination of surface convergence along boundary, and upper waves will lead to unsettled weather for the entire weekend, bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The potential will exist for a few strong to severe storms, mainly during the afternoon hours when any breaks in the clouds could lead to enhanced instability. A significant north to south temperature gradient can be expected over the weekend, due to the location of the front, and where best coverage of clouds and rain will be. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - The unsettled weather will continue through Wednesday, with potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms A cold front will move southeast across the area Monday and Monday night. The front will move through slowly, but is expected to clear to the south Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Temperatures will be near normal on Monday. A northeast flow will keep temperatures below normal over eastern counties Tuesday, while readings will be closer to normal further inland. High pressure will build to the east northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday. Flow around this high will result in a east to southeast flow. The Gulf sea breeze will push inland Wednesday afternoon, prompting showers and thunderstorms across NE FL as this Gulf breeze interacts with this onshore flow. Another cold front will move southeast across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time, it looks like most of the precipitation associated with this front will remain to the north. High pressure will build across the area on Friday. Temperatures will trend near to a bit above average Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... A stalled front will be over the area this period, with chances for showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be during the evening hours Saturday, though periods of showers may affect most sites overnight tonight, but only confident enough for VCSH to be included at this time. TEMPO groups for reduced vsbys will be possible overnight pending trends. Otherwise, at least MVFR cloud deck restrictions are likely to develop overnight and persist through the morning hours Saturday. Inland areas such as VQQ and GNV will have the highest potential for IFR ceilings and vsbys. && .MARINE... A cold front will push south of the local waters today, before lifting back northward into the waters later tonight and remain in place as a stationary front this weekend. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this weekend, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible. A stronger cold front will then push through the local waters on Monday. Northwesterly winds will strengthen to Caution levels late Monday evening in the wake of the frontal passage, with winds quickly shifting to northerly Monday Night and increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels on Tuesday as high pressure builds north of the region. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents with surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet through Monday. Next chance of solid Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is next Tuesday with surge of Northeast winds expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Ne Fl This Weekend - Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Tuesday Through Thursday A cold frontal boundary will linger across the area through the weekend, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms move east along it. A cold front will move southeast across the area Monday into Monday night. High pressure will then build to the east northeast mid week. After another front moves through on Thursday, high pressure ridging will build overhead Friday. Except for readings a little below average on Tuesday, temperatures will be near seasonal levels throughout this period. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight or Saturday night. Daily thunderstorm chances through next Thursday. The potential will exist each day for a few mainly afternoon strong to severe storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 79 66 83 / 70 80 60 80 SSI 68 79 70 80 / 60 90 50 80 JAX 68 85 69 86 / 40 80 40 80 SGJ 70 88 71 87 / 30 60 20 80 GNV 68 88 70 89 / 40 30 20 40 OCF 69 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$