877
FXUS62 KJAX 261752
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today through Tonight)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Sfc ridge axis is dropping south of the area this afternoon with
general south to southeast flow over the local area. Atlantic sea
breeze, low level troughing southwest to northeast over southeast
GA, and sufficient moisture and instability expected to result in
a low chance of a shower or storm from about 5 pm through this
evening. The best chance would be from the Okefenokee Swamp
eastward to the coast and north into coastal southeast GA.

Tonight, some isolated convection mainly north portions of the
area, but should dissipate by midnight. Mostly clear skies overnight.
Low level flow will become light and variable or southerly as the
ridge will be south of the area. The forecast area will also be
approached by a cold front moving in from the north. Lows in the
lower to mid 60s anticipated for most of the area, with some
patchy fog possible inland areas after about 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A slow moving northwest to southeast oriented cold front will
move south into SE GA Sunday. Convection is expected to develop
Sunday afternoon. This activity will initiate due to a combination
of convergence along the boundary, diurnal instability and sea
breeze interactions. The greatest chance for precipitation Sunday
afternoon and evening will focus on the front.

The cold front will make little progress to the south Sunday night,
with convergence along it keeping precipitation chances going into
the night.

The boundary will continue to drift south Monday into Monday night.
The boundary will have a greater push down the local waters, causing
the boundary to have a nearly north to south orientation by Monday
night. Precipitation chances will increase on Monday with increasing
moisture ahead of the front. With loss of diurnal heating, lower
chances for Monday night.

Low temperatures will be above normal this period. Temperatures will
be above normal across the area Sunday. There will be a gradient in
temperatures from east to west on Monday due to the front, but in
general readings will run above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The frontal boundary will largely dissipate over inland NE FL
Tuesday, as a high pressure ridge centered to the northeast moves
south across region. The greatest chance for convection Tuesday
afternoon and evening will be across inland areas due to position of
what is left of frontal boundary, along with sea breeze interactions
and diurnal heating.

A dry day is forecast for Wednesday as high pressure ridge centered
to the east northeast will stretch across region. The high will
become centered more to the east southeast on Thursday, with
subsidence under high keeping the dry weather going.

A trough of low pressure will pass just to the north of area
Thursday night. A cold front will move into SE GA Friday afternoon
initiating convection, then move southeast across the area Friday
night. With loss of diurnal heating, Friday night is expected to
be largely dry. The boundary will be just to the south Saturday.
Diurnal instability, sea breeze interactions, and left over
convergence north of the front will result in convective chances
Saturday.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions expected to continue, with satellite imagery and
observations showing few to scattered cumulus around 3500-5000 ft.
Will continue to not carry VCSH or VCTS for JAX and SSI where the
chances are non-zero for convection nearby late today. The very
isolated convection that may develop late aftn and evening expected
to dissipate by about midnight. Mostly clear overnight with only
MVFR vsby shown at VQQ 07z-13z. Winds will be south- southeast
rest of the day and will diminish tonight. Winds light and variable
for most part Sunday morning, but probably coming around to the
east and northeast for SSI, CRG, and SGJ by about 15z-18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Low level flow will veer through tonight in response to the high
pressure ridge dropping southward and a cold front approaching
from the north. Winds peak at about 15-17 kt offshore tonight.
The front may be moving in quicker than earlier forecasts tomorrow,
probably moving into the southeast GA waters by about noon to 3
PM on Sunday, and the northeast FL waters from 3 pm-7 pm. Winds
will shift to the northeast with speeds approaching caution criteria
with seas also building. Exercise caution headlines may be needed
by later Sunday north part of the waters, then chances increasing
through the rest of the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday
and Monday night, but likely at least about 12-16 kt for most areas.
Seas may climb toward 4-6 ft Sunday night north parts, becoming
more likely at during the time frame from Monday into Tuesday as
the flow is fairly consistent from the east (longer fetch),
building the sea state further. Peak height in the sea state
generally looks to be Tue-Wed.

The nearly stationary front may decay on Tuesday over northern FL.
The high pressure ridge axis will then slowly shift south of the
local waters by mid to late with a shift to south to southwest
flow again on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Risk of Rip currents at NE FL/SE GA
beaches this weekend with surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range as
Southeast sea breeze develops today, then onshore E-NE flow
develops on Sunday with the backdoor frontal passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

 SAT 4/26SUN 4/27

JAX 92 (2011) 94 (1986)

GNV93 (1908) 96 (2011)

AMG93 (1986) 96 (1986)

CRG91 (1989) 93 (2011)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  90  63  84 /  10  20  20  30
SSI  68  83  69  79 /  20  20  20  30
JAX  63  90  67  83 /  20  30  20  40
SGJ  65  87  68  83 /   0  20  20  50
GNV  63  92  65  89 /  10  20  20  60
OCF  62  93  65  91 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$