794
FXUS62 KJAX 060000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
700 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 657 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A low level flow from the southwest will bring in moisture from the
Gulf Tonight. This is expected to result in fog and stratus moving
northeast across area. At this time, models point to the densest fog
and low stratus not getting much further east than the I75 corridor.
Latest satellite imagery is now showing the low stratus/fog moving
off the Gulf into Dixie county.

Weak upper waves aloft will move east over the region through the
night, which will keep high cloudiness moving across.

Lows Tonight in the middle 50s will be common, except upper 50s
generally southeast of a line from Ocala to St Augustine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Zonal flow through the end of the week as high pressure remains
situated over central Florida. Partly cloudy skies during the
daylight hours across most of the area. Daytime temps through the
end of the week are expected in the low to mid 80s across NE FL
and the upper 70s to lower 80s across SE GA. Slightly warmer
temperatures during the overnight hours for northern locations of
SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region as partly cloudy skies remain
for these locations. Evening temps for NE FL will range in the
mid to upper 50s, with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s for SE
GA. There remains a small chance of light rain Thursday night
along the Altamaha River Basin, but kept off of the forecast for
now.

Foggy conditions are again expected on Thursday night as southwesterly
flow will continue to bring moisture in from the Gulf. Patchy to
Areas of Dense Fog will look to advect across the area from the
west towards the Atlantic Coastal locations through the overnight
hours into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Dry and warm weather is anticipated through the upcoming weekend. An
approaching cold front on Monday will bring the next chances of
showers for portions of our area. Some showers will begin to skirt
the northern locations of SE GA during the afternoon hours on
Monday. By Tuesday, rain chances will steadily increase
throughout the day ahead of the cold front`s passage. There may be
enough instability to allow for the development of some storms
over SE GA Tuesday evening, but will largely depend on how far
south the front will travel.

Highs for this period will be in the lower 80s, with lows expected
in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Restrictions in fog and stratus are expected Tonight at all local
TAF sites. Since the fog is expected to advect off the Gulf, the
greatest chance for dense fog and low stratus is inland,
especially at KGNV. The fog will then slowly lift during the
morning Thursday, with prevailing VFR conditions from late
morning through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

The main near and short term concern is potential for sea fog and
have placed in the forecast for late tonight and early Thursday
morning with chances of visibility of about 1 NM. Weak front will
backdoor into southeast GA waters with a weak wind shift but will
lift back north as a warm front Thursday. Some fog will be
possible again early Friday morning. Otherwise, a ridge of high
pressure will remain nearly stationary across the FL peninsula
over the next few days. So through the weekend, prevailing flow
over the marine zones will be southwest to west, but modulated at
times due to the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze. Over wind speeds
are less than 15 kt. A cold front will then approach from the
northwest on Monday, with isolated to widely scattered showers
possible early next week. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both
near shore and offshore during the next several days.

Rip Currents: Although an easterly ocean swell will persist at
area beaches during the next several days, low surf heights should
result in a low risk through at least Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 441 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites through
Monday:

                Feb 5    Feb 6    Feb 7    Feb 8    Feb 9   Feb 10
               ----------------------------------------------------
Jacksonville   87/1957  85/2020  82/2019  85/2019  88/1937  84/1994
Gainesville    86/1957  88/1957  86/1957  86/2019  86/1939  86/1957
Alma, GA       85/1957  82/2008  82/2019  84/1957  83/1957  82/1994
Craig Airport  83/2008  85/2008  81/2018  82/1999  83/1982  81/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  79  58  78 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  55  74  56  72 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  56  82  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  81  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  56  82  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  83  57  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$