488
FXUS62 KJAX 030115
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches through Thursday.
Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at the Southeast GA Beaches

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Showers and Isolated TStorms. Main
Impact Area: Northeast FL and coastal Southeast GA, Marine Waters

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms Thurs-Tues. Heavy
Rainfall Potential on Thurs & Fri for Northeast & North Central FL

&&

.UPDATE...

Showers have mainly ended over inland NE FL with exception of the
southern st Johns river basin into Marion county, which will fade by
midnight. Have included patchy dense fog for inland SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley for late tonight as low stratus develops in the
moist low levels and settles to the surface as winds become calm.
The fog and low stratus will improve by mid morning as coastal
showers shift onshore from the St Johns county coast northeastward
into I-95 and Duval county by late morning. No changes to the low
temperatures in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80
along the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights through Tonight:

- Numerous Showers with a Few Embedded Thunderstorms Possible
through this Evening, Mainly for Locations South of Interstate 10.

- Fog Formation Possible at Inland Locations During the Predawn and
Early Morning Hours on Thursday, with Locally Dense Fog Possible for
Interior Southeast GA.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts an inverted trough extending from
the near shore Atlantic waters adjacent to east central FL
northeastward to the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL. This
feature was moving slowly northwestward. Meanwhile, high pressure
(1021 millibars) extends from the western Atlantic waters near the
Outer Banks westward across the southern Appalachians and through
the Tennessee Valley and the Ozarks. Otherwise, Tropical Depression
Edouard (1004 millibars) was drifting north-northwestward across far
eastern Texas. Aloft..."Heat Wave" ridging blankets the southeastern
states, with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) feature
spinning west-northwestward beneath this ridge along the FL
Panhandle coast. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water
imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture resides for locations
south and east of Waycross, GA, where above 2 inches, with locations
along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor experiencing values
between 2.25 and 2.5 inches. A slightly drier air mass prevails from
Waycross and points north and westward, where values were generally
around 1.75 inches.

Bands of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms located on the
northwestern edge of the approaching inverted trough were spiraling
west and southwestward for locations within the deeper tropical air
mass, where increasing cloud cover and breezy northeasterly winds
were generally keeping temperatures in 85-90 degree range outside of
rain cooled locations as of 18Z, with dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s. A paltry cumulus field was in place elsewhere across inland
southeast GA within the drier air mass, where temperatures have
mostly climbed into the lower 90s, with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s creating heat index values of 100-105 degrees as of 18Z.

Inverted surface troughing will slowly move northwestward towards
the northeast FL coast tonight. Bands of showers and possibly a few
embedded thunderstorms will continue to move onshore, especially for
locations south of Interstate 10, with activity generally moving
briskly west or southwestward for locations south of Waycross
through the early evening hours tonight. Locally heavy downpours
will be possible across coastal northeast FL as well as southern
portions of the St. Johns River basin and across north central FL
through around sunset, but the quick motion of these rain bands
should limit amounts to negate localized flooding. There should be a
lull in these coastal bands of showers this evening before another
uptick in activity takes place during the predawn and early morning
hours on Thursday, with potential impacts to locations along and
east of I-95. Otherwise, decoupling winds should allow for low
stratus ceilings and fog to develop, especially over the more
subsident air mass that currently resides across interior southeast
GA and western portions of the Suwannee Valley. Lows tonight will
only fall to the mid 70s inland, with a light northeasterly breeze
keeping coastal lows in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily shower and thunderstorm potential, with strong storms
possible over inland locations

Continuing onshore flow will bring early morning showers onshore
both Thursday and Friday, with rain coverage pushing inland through
the morning to early afternoon. By mid afternoon through sunset,
expect an increase in storm coverage, primarily for inland northeast
Florida where the Atlantic sea breeze meets the slower moving Gulf
sea breeze. Several days of heavy rainfall potential will hold the
`Marginal` risk of excessive rainfall for northeast Florida on
Thursday, posing a risk to localized flooding. In addition to the
flooding threat, gusty winds would be possible with any strong storm
development, the highest risk for strong storms would be inland
locations.

The onshore winds and heavier cloud cover will keep coastal high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, whereas inland areas will see
highs in the low 90s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms Possible Inland.

A pattern shift is expected on Saturday, steering flow will shift to
southwesterly ahead of an incoming cold front from the north,
expected to reach the area later this weekend. The southwesterly
winds will allow numerous showers and storms to develop Saturday
afternoon across all of northeast Florida, including the coast,
while southeast Georgia sees more scattered convection. Sunday,
storm coverage increases areawide as we see an increase in moisture
ahead of the cold front sinking southward. High precipitation
chances continue Monday as the front pushes through the area,
leaving lower chances on Tuesday as the easterly flow returns.
Overall, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

The 00Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions with east
northeasterly winds 10-12 knots at the coast and 5-8 knots
inland through 06Z. After 06Z, similar to yesterday evening/early
this morning, low stratus and fog will begin to develop away from
the coast with MVFR VSBY and IFR/LIFR CIGS at JAX, VQQ, and GNV
between 06-09Z as winds become calm inland while staying very
light and easterly along the coast around 5 knots with few to
scattered CIGS 1.0-2.0 kft. VFR/MVFR conditions will resume after
13Z as east northeast winds increase over inland areas to 5-8 knots.

Flow between high pressure to the north and northeast and a trough
moving in from the southeast will continue the moist low level
onshore flow again Thursday with the trough shifting west northwest
from east central Florida into north central FL. Coastal showers
approaching from the east will move onshore to SGJ by 09Z and
shift towards CRG through 15Z. Scattered showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms will press inland through the late
morning hours to JAX, then shift further inland to VQQ and GNV
through 18-19Z. Not including VCTS except for GNV as greater
lift and instability will reside further inland across Northeast
FL

Have PROB30 groups for morning showers moving onshore to SGJ/CRG
and then afternoon heavy showers and MVFR VSBY/CIGS. Similar to
Wednesday, diminished coverage expected over Southeast Georgia,
so only have VCSH at SSI Wednesday afternoon through 20Z with
any showers having shifted inland thereafter. east northeasterly
winds 8-10 knots will become more easterly in the afternoon as
the trough axis moves towards the west coast of the FL peninsula.

&&

.MARINE...


Decreasing easterly winds this evening with become breezy and
southeasterly Thursday afternoon. a round of scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms late this evening over the
coastal waters will push onshore as a trough axis moves west
northwest from east central FL coast across the central FL
peninsula by Thursday afternoon with decreasing showers over
the coastal waters in the mid to late afternoon.

Weak Atlantic high pressure will build westward towards the
southeastern seaboard on Friday with light southeast wind flow
and scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Prevailing westerly winds are then expected from Saturday through at
least Monday morning as a frontal boundary sinks southward towards
our region, with this feature maintaining a stormy weather pattern,
especially during the afternoon and evening as activity pushes
eastward from coastal locations. Stronger high pressure will build
down the southeastern seaboard early next week in the wake of this
boundary, likely pushing the front over the northeast Florida
waters. Breezy onshore winds will gradually overspread our local
waters by Monday afternoon and night.

Rip Currents: A long period east-southeasterly ocean swell will
combine with breezy northeasterly winds to create breakers of 3-4
feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA
beaches through Thursday. These conditions will yield a high risk of
deadly rip currents at the northeast FL beaches and a higher end
moderate risk for the southeast GA beaches. The long period swell
will gradually fade on Thursday and should not linger into Friday,
with the afternoon sea breeze creating enough of an onshore breeze
to yield a lower end moderate risk on Friday at area beaches.
Prevailing offshore winds this weekend should result in a low risk,
while developing onshore winds on Labor Day likely resulting in at
least a moderate risk.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy Low Dispersions Over North Central Florida Friday
     LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND..

Onshore flow continues through midweek bringing early morning
showers across coastal locations, and then towards inland locations
as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. By the afternoon hours,
amplified showers and thunderstorms will be possible with diurnal
heating. With weaker winds aloft, dispersions will continue to
generally be in the poor to fair range much of the week,
particularly over north central FL, and coastal locations by this
weekend. Moisture advecting in from the Atlantic will help maintain
good min RH values across the area.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near
thunderstorms with briefly localized flooding rainfall. Late night
and early morning patchy fog and low stratus will be possible,
especially in areas that received more rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  91  74  92 /   0  50  10  70
SSI  79  88  78  88 /  10  50  40  40
JAX  76  89  75  91 /  10  60  20  80
SGJ  78  88  76  89 /  40  50  20  70
GNV  75  90  73  91 /  10  80  30  90
OCF  75  90  74  92 /  30  80  20  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$