489
FXUS62 KJAX 131648
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1248 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hazardous Beach & Surf Zone Conditions Today. Frequent rip
  currents all local beaches High Risk. Rough Surf, Breakers 4-6
  ft

- Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts St. Johns
  River Basin. Increasing water levels again mid-week

- Small Craft Advisory Returns Wednesday Outer Waters

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Gorgeous, seasonably warm fall-day across southeast Georgia under
sunny skies and NNW to NNE winds toward the coast. High
temperatures are on track to reach the lower 80s to near 80/upper
70s at the coast as NNE winds kick-in this afternoon. Surface high
pressure centered NNW of the region will continue to dominate
through tonight, with winds decoupling after sunset and mostly
clear skies. With recent rainfall and good radiational cooling
conditions, inland fog is expected after midnight through daybreak
Tuesday, some of which could be locally dense at times. Leaned on
the cooler side of NBM low temperatures guidance with dry air in
place with lows falling into the mid to upper 50s inland to low
60s at the coast, generally near to a few degrees below average at
climate sites.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Dry and warm conditions persist through the week as mid/upper
ridging over the lower Plains gradually shifts eastward towards
the region. A couple of reinforcing dry fronts will pass through
the region for mid-week maintaining the dry airmass (PWATs ~1
inch) over the region. Breezy northeasterly winds develop for mid-
week as surface high pressure ridging wedges down the eastern
seaboard in the wake of the passing front. High pressure then
shifts off the southeast US coast this weekend as a cold front
approaches the area from the west on Sunday. Moisture gradually
returns for the latter half of the week with onshore flow and then
again ahead of the front as the flow shifts to southwesterly.
Next chance for rain will be along the upcoming front on Sunday
although models disagree on coverage.

Temperatures will be around to just above seasonable with highs
in the upper 70s along the coast to the low-mid 80s inland. Cool
mornings continue with lows in the low-mid 50s for inland SE GA to
the mid-upper 60s along the coast.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions through 00z under NNW winds inland 6-10 kts with
coastal terminals NNE 8-12 kts. Wind weaken after 00z with VFR
conditions through 06z until ground fog begins to form with better
radiational cooling conditions. Included prevailing MVFR at VQQ
and GNV for now after 07z-08z with TEMPO IFR restrictions at VQQ.
VFR conditions after 12z Tuesday under NNE winds inland to NE at
the coast 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Northerly winds prevail over the waters through tonight as seas
continued to subside. Currently have Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlined for the outer waters, and expect seas will subside below
6 ft by 10 pm this evening. Northeast winds increase late Tuesday
into Wednesday as a front moves across the local waters and high
pressure builds northeast of the region through the end of the
week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to return for
at least the offshore waters by Wednesday. Elevated winds and seas
continue through Friday with dry weather.

Rip Currents: High risk continues for all local beaches today,
with a brief Moderate risk expected Tuesday before increasing
onshore flow by Wednesday returns High risk to most beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Morning tides peaked in the "minor" category in the St. Johns
River basin south of the Buckman Bridge (Duval-Clay county line)
southward to Satsuma, with coastal high tides in the action to
minor categories south of St. Augustine. After coordination with
Putnam County EM team stating that minor road flooding impacts
were now occurring in Welaka (Sportsman Harbor), we dropped the
Coastal Flood Warning and replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory,
and trimmed down the Advisory along the coast to just southern St.
Johns and Flagler counties for mainly minor tidal flooding
impacts to the ICW.

Looking ahead, looks like a return of lower-end minor tidal
flooding impacts for the northeast Florida coast mid to late week
as onshore flow strengthens once again. The differences noted in
the upcoming northeast wind surge event compared to last week are
significant and not favorable at this time for another significant
coastal flood event. These differences include lower astronomical
tides and weaker onshore flow, despite persistent onshore winds
for several days. Water levels will increase once again within the
St. Johns basin with high confidence of at last minor tidal
flooding with the potential for a return of inundation near
moderate tidal flooding levels (near 2 ft MHHW) south of downtown
JAX late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  83  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  80  65  77 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  84  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  81  67  80 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  59  86  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  60  85  61  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$