375
FXUS62 KJAX 020505
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1205 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Cold Weather Outbreak through Tuesday Morning. Cold Weather
Advisory Tonight  Lows, Wind Chills 15-20F. Widespread Hard Freeze
Tonight. Widespread Freeze Likely Again Monday Night

- Marine Hazards through Monday. Small Craft Advisory Through Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning: Mostly clear and very cold as arctic air mass
settles over the region in weakening NW flow. Record cold and hard
freeze still expected all areas with Min temps still on track for
the upper teens/lower 20s inland to middle 20s along the I-95
corridor, with only upper 20s at Atlantic beachfront locations.
Light NW winds around 5 mph will continue to allow for Wind Chills
in the 15-25F range and will continue Cold Weather Advisory,
although a few colder locations could drop below 15F wind chills for
a few pockets of Extreme Cold across inland NE FL, but not enough
coverage to upgrade to an Extreme Cold Warning in the short term.

Today: High pressure ridge will settle over the Northern Gulf Coast
with an axis across the FL Peninsula which will continue the dry NW
flow across the local area. Expect Mostly Sunny skies and just a
slight bump upwards in temps into the lower 50s, but still well
below expected normal temps in the mid/upper 60s. Much less wind
than yesterday, but still some increase to W-NW winds at 10-15 mph
with a few peak gusts around 20 mph during the early to mid
afternoon hours.

Tonight: High pressure settles directly over the FL Peninsula and
despite a few thin high clouds from time to time, expect another
widespread Freeze event along with the best chance for widespread
Frost due to near calm winds and dew point temps recovering as well.
A moderate to hard freeze is expected inland with lows in the mid to
upper 20s, and a light freeze expected closer to the Atlantic Coast,
generally around 30F along the I-95 corridor and lower 30s for the
Atlantic beachfront locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Period begins with zonal flow in the mid levels over our region
becoming more west southwesterly as an upstream trough extending
southwestward from a potent shortwave centered over Ontario begins
to dig southeastward into the southern plains/mid MS river valley.
The backing flow aloft in the mid levels will weaken/shift surface
high pressure ridge from central FL eastward into the Atlantic
waters. Light southwest winds will prevails as the surface high
settles just south of our area and extends into the Atlantic with
increasing high level clouds as a cold front extending from the TN
valley into the lower MS valley approaches from the northwest. With
cold air advection over and sunshine filtering through the high
cirrus, highs will increase to near normal values in the low/mid 60s
over SE GA and the mid 60s over NE FL, but cool around 60 degrees at
the beaches.

Tuesday night, not as cold as weak warm air advection ahead of the
approaching cold front warms overnight lows to the only the low/mid
40s over SE GA, the NE FL coast and the Suwannee Valley. However,
residual surface high pressure remaining across central FL will help
provide one more night of radiational cooling over north central
FL/southern St Johns river basin where winds will be calm and clear
skies will brings lows into the mid 30s with patchy frost.

Wednesday, initial trough will shift east across central appalachians
in the morning with an elongated southern stream component of the
trough swinging southeast into the deep south and the Carolinas.
This will press the cold front across the southeast states and into
the FL panhandle and southern GA through the day. Ahead of the cold
front, showers will spread eastward across SE GA during the day and
onto the FL/GA state line into the Suwannee Valley by mid to late
afternoon. While strong shear will be over the area, there will be
very little instability available for T`storms as low level winds do
not appear strong enough to pump in higher dewpoints before the
front arrives. The showers and the cold front will press through
into NE FL Wednesday night with winds becoming westerly, then
northwesterly by sunrise Thursday as the cold front passes to the
south of the area.

Rainfall amounts do not appear to be heavy as the showers and front
will be progressive, but a appears there will be enough for a
wetting rainfall event for SE GA with less amounts over NE FL.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 60s over SE GA and the mid 60s
over the Suwannee Valley to the upper 60s to near 70 along the NE FL
coast and St Johns river basin. Lows on Wednesday night will be in
the low/mid 40s as cooler air filters in late overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period will begin with deep troughing along the eastern third of
the nation and deep northwest flow over the region. A cold front
exiting the region and high pressure building to the west on
Thursday will provide for breezy northwest winds and colder
temperatures returning to the area under persistent mid and high
level cloud cover until a secondary shortwave shoves in from the
northwest and clears the mid level trough axis east of the area.
Clear skies Thursday night and cold air advection will support an
inland freeze with winds light enough for at least patchy frost.

The high will weaken and shift into the west/central Gulf waters
Friday with sunny skies, but below normal highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Another dry cold front arrives late Friday night/early Saturday
morning that will bring another cold and dry airmass into the area
as high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest Saturday and then
into the OH and TN valley into Sunday. Frost and a light freeze
potential remain in the forecast Sunday morning with onshore winds
keeping the beaches above freezing. Highs will trend to near normal
by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions with generally SKC through the period. West to
Northwest 5 knots or less early this morning, increasing back close
to 10 knots after 15Z, then becoming near calm or light and variable
after sunset (23Z) this evening.

&&

.MARINE...


Small Craft Advisory conditions this morning, but winds and seas
will slowly subside this afternoon through tonight as high pressure
builds across the Gulf Coast states. The high builds over the
Florida peninsula Tuesday. The next cold front approaches from the
west Wednesday, moving across the area waters Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure builds into the region, followed by another cold
frontal passage on Friday.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Risk with lingering swell from
departing storm producing surf/breakers in the 4-6 ft range today
with a slow decrease to 2-4 ft surf/breakers on Tuesday. Could argue
for a High Risk of Rips today if it wasn`t for the frigid temps and
the offshore flow in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Critically Low Rh Values Today
     AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
- Wednesday

Dry conditions expected today as high pressure builds towards the
area from the west with light northwest winds 5-10 mph and elevated
10-15 mph over lakes, rivers, immediate coast becoming westerly in
the afternoon hours. Min RH values will fall below critical values
20-25 percent. The high will move east over the Florida peninsula
Tuesday just south of the area with light southwest winds around 5-
10 mph under increasing high clouds. Min RH values improve to around
30 percent Tuesday.

A cold front will approach Wednesday with numerous showers and a
wetting rainfall expected as the cold front shifts southeast through
the area. Increasing surface and transport winds well ahead of the
front will create areas of high dispersions south of I-10 Wednesday.
Dry conditions return to end the week with minRH values approaching
near critical values 25-30 percent by Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Very cold wind chills will be
expected into early this morning along with Hard freeze conditions.
A light Freeze expected tonight into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Temperatures:

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979
CRG 27/1980
GNV 25/1980
AMG 19/1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  26  62  42 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  50  34  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  53  28  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  52  30  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  54  28  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  54  27  65  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
     225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
     533-633.
     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
     433-522-533-633.
GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ452-
     454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-
     472-474.

&&

$$