483
FXUS62 KJAX 280014
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
814 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine & Coastal Hazards this
Weekend. Wind Advisory for 40-45 mph Gusts Along the Coast & St Johns
River Basin Saturday. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Waters from
Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning. High Risk for Rip Currents and
High Surf at All Area Beaches this Weekend. Elevated Tide Levels
Possible on Sunday Morning Along the Atlantic Coast

- Red Flag Warning for Portions of Inland Southeast GA on Saturday.
Minimum Relative Humidity: 20-25% & NE Winds: 15-20 mph, Gusts 20-30
mph. Elevated Fire Danger Elsewhere

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Near Record High Temperatures this Afternoon.

Rather warm afternoon will unfold through the remainder of the
afternoon. The morning upper launch measured 850 mb temps around the
75th percentile, which should translate to a peak temperature around
90 degrees in Jacksonville. Under the peripheral warming influence
of ridging aloft, highs elsewhere will commonly read in the 80s this
afternoon. The inland thermal trough developing due to the
anomalous temperatures will drive dry sea breezes inland from
the gulf and atlantic this afternoon.

Tonight, the initial edge of a dry cold front will push in from the
northwest late tonight, ushering in a drier airmass into portions of
southeast GA. This will set the stage for a volatile weather
alignment in regards to wildfire and erratic behavior is expected
(specific details in the FIRE WEATHER section below). Despite mostly
clear skies through the early hours Saturday, prefrontal breezes
ahead of the dry front will keep the boundary layer mixed and deter
fog from developing. As a result of the overnight breeze, lows will
be on the warm side only falling to the mid/upper 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy conditions Saturday and Saturday night.


Cold front will push south of the area early in the morning
Saturday. Strong high pressure will build from the north northwest
behind it. Inverted troughing is expected to develop over the
coastal waters Saturday afternoon. The strong pressure gradient
between the front and high, will yield elevated winds,
especially at the coast. A wind advisory may be needed for the
coast. The front is expected to pass through largely dry. The
northeast flow across the relatively cooler coastal waters,
coupled with cloud cover, will result in below normal
temperatures over much of the area. Far inland NE FL will have
less clouds and less influence from the waters, so near to above
normal temperatures are possible.

The high will become centered to the northeast Sunday, with coastal
trough remaining. The high will move further away Sunday night, with
trough weakening. With the high moving away, winds will decrease at
the coast Sunday, but temperatures will remain a bit below normal
during the day.

The best chance for precipitation this period will be coastal NE FL
Saturday night through Sunday, due to convergence associated with
the trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Mainly dry weather to continue, with above normal temperatures

High pressure will build further away to the east northeast Monday
through Wednesday. With some coastal troughing remaining,
precipitation chances Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will
remain above normal through Wednesday.

There is some uncertainty in the Thursday and Friday time frame, as
to whether the cold front will move into the area, or the ridge will
hold it to the north. At this point, models are favoring keeping the
boundary to the north. Temperatures will remain above normal for
Thursday and Friday, with the best chance for precipitation over SE
GA near the frontal zone.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with winds around 5 kts shifting from WSW to NNE
continue until 10-12Z as a mostly dry cold front passes through. A
surge of strong NE winds will develop in the wake of the front early
Saturday morning and then spread across the TAF sites from north to
south. This will also be accompanied by an MVFR stratus deck with a
base around 2.5kft. By 15Z, all TAF sites will have sustained winds
of 15-25 kts and gusts of 25-35 kts. Highest gusts will likely be at
KSSI, KCRG, and KSGJ. Gusty winds will persist through at least 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds this evening increase ahead of a dry cold front. A
strong northeast wind surge will then push across the waters early
Saturday morning bringing a long period of gales that will extend to
around the early morning hours on Sunday. The strongest winds and
gusts are expected Saturday afternoon and through the late evening
when gusts frequently may reach 40 knots. This will build seas to
very hazardous heights for small craft and may be close to 10 to 15
feet offshore and 8-10 feet closer to the shoreline. Winds will
gradually diminish to small craft advisory levels Sunday into Monday
while winds shift to blowing directly onshore. Coastal troughing
will develop within the onshore flow and generate rounds of
isolated showers through the weekend and into early next week.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Life threatening surf conditions will develop with a strong surge of
northeasterly winds on Saturday. A High Surf Advisory will be in
effect through the weekend as breakers build to 6-9 feet at area
beaches by Saturday afternoon. Stronger-than-normal rip currents are
likely to develop and there will be a significant risk for anyone
who ventures into the surf zone this weekend. Surf will only
gradually diminish early next week as breezy onshore winds prevail.

Minor tidal flooding and beach erosion may be possible during the
Sunday morning high tide cycle along our local Atlantic coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MINRH LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER INLAND SE GA
- Saturday
     AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND
- Wednesday Through Friday

A cold front will move south across the area Tonight. Strong high
pressure will build to the north northwest as an inverted trough
develops over the coastal waters Saturday. A surge of winds will
move down the coast Saturday morning. While gusty winds can be
expected across the area, the strongest will be at the coast. Mixing
will be significant over inland SE GA Saturday afternoon, leading to
a very dry airmass, to accompany the gusty winds. Therefore, a red
flag warning is in effect.

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature for Sunday
through next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
Tonight. Thunderstorm potential mainly NE FL Monday afternoon.
Thunderstorms potential inland Tuesday afternoon. A few
thunderstorms possibly north central FL Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  69  45  72 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  60  68  56  69 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  59  70  54  73 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  60  68  58  72 /   0  20  20  10
GNV  59  77  55  76 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  60  80  58  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday
     night for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-433-
     533-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Saturday through late
     Sunday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday
     night for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Saturday through late
     Sunday night for GAZ154-166.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$