772
FXUS62 KJAX 061838
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
238 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Coastal Flood Warning: Moderate Tidal Flooding St. Johns River Basin south of Downtown JAX. Coastal Flood Advisory: Minor Tidal Flood Atlantic Coast & St. Johns River Basin Duval County. Expansion of Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories Likely by Thursday

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Tuesday. High Rip Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Hazards Return late Thursday and continue through next Weekend

- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Isolated Thunderstorm Risk Today. Localized Flood Risk at Urban, Coastal, & Low-lying Areas

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Showers with isolated embedded storms mainly over northeast
Florida will continue to shift inland through late afternoon, with
only a low chance of coastal showers overnight as drier upper and
mid level air advect over the area. Coastal convergence also weakens
compared to previous days at surface high pressure builds south
and east of the mid-Atlatnic seaboard, which will begin to relax
the low level pressure gradient over the local area. After
midnight, rain chances drop to less than 15% for the coast with
dry conditions inland.

Mild lows will drop into the upper 60s across parts of inland SE
Georgia where less cloud cover prevails and some patchy fog and
low stratus begin to form toward daybreak. Closer toward the
coast, easterly winds will keep the low level more mixed and low
temps more mild in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

High pressure will be moving away toward the northeast Tuesday into
Tuesday night, with a weak trough dissipating along the coastal
waters. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected in the moist
onshore flow Tuesday.

Weak ridging will be over the region Wednesday, with a cold front
approaching from the northwest. With the ridge in place, a dry day
is forecast for Wednesday. As the front sinks into southern GA
Wednesday night, the chance for showers will slowly increase.

Highs in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The cold front will move south across the area Thursday, and into
central FL Thursday night. Strong high pressure will then build from
the north northeast, as a trough develops over the coastal waters. A
pinched gradient between the high and trough will result in elevated
onshore flow, along with showers.

The high will remain to the north northeast Friday and Saturday, as
the trough develops into an area of low pressure and tracks off to
the northeast. Shower chances linger into Friday, with best chances
near the coast, with a mainly dry day forecast for Saturday.

High pressure will build overhead of the area Saturday night into
Monday. A cold front is currently expected to move into area Monday
afternoon. Mainly dry weather forecast for late in this period, but
a few coastal showers can not be ruled out.

Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday night, then after
the front goes through below average temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Shower activity was focused inland and south from SGJ to GNV where
TEMPO TS was maintained through 20Z at SGJ and 22z at GNV, with
SHRA elsewhere. Breezy easterly winds will continue to gusty
outside of convection near 20-25 kts at times, with periods of
MVFR to IFR under heavy rain. After sunset, precipitation coverage
decreases with lighter easterly winds overnight remaining
elevated at the coast where some MVFR stratocumulus could move
inland toward daybreak. Inland, lighter winds and less multi-
layered cover combined with moist ground will lead to some fog and
low stratus after 07-08z. Higher confidence of MVFR to IFR
restrictions is at GNV and VQQ at this time. After 12z, easterly
winds and prevailing VFR conditions are expected with only brief
MVFR restrictions as low cloud deck forms. Drier weather on
Tuesday so did not include any precipitation at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Small craft advisory combined seas will continue within the local
waters through mid-week as surface high pressure builds offshore of
the mid-Atlantic coast. A front approaches from the north late
Wednesday, then the front shifts south of the local waters Thursday
as high pressure builds northeast of the region and strengthens
southward. A return of strong northeast winds is expected Thursday
and winds are expected to further strengthen Friday into Saturday as
a surface low develops east of the southeast Atlantic coast. Strong
winds and building seas will once again bring Small Craft conditions
across all local waters with the potential for gusts to gale force.
A gale watch may be needed mid-week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Moderate tidal flooding continue to oscillate with tides between
downtown JAX and Welaka this morning, with peak inundation around
2 ft MHHW datum at the Buckman Bridge and now heading southward
toward the Shands Bridge and Satsuma over the next few hours. A
coastal flood warning remains in effect to message moderate tidal
flooding in this portion of the St. Johns basin.

Water levels continued to peak in the action to minor flood stage
around high tide along the Atlantic coast and the Intracoastal
Waterway (ICW) in Duval, St. Johns, and Flagler Counties, as well
as along the St. Johns River from downtown JAX to Mayport. A
coastal flood advisory remains in place to message minor tidal
flooding impacts.

As onshore winds gradually diminish towards midweek, astronomical
influences from today`s full "Hunter`s" moon will continue to
increase, setting up a potentially significant coastal and tidal
flood event later this week and into the upcoming weekend as a
surge of strong northeasterly winds overspreads our area Thursday
into Saturday. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories will likely
be expanded by Thursday and Friday all along the Atlantic coast
and throughout the St. Johns River basin once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  86  66  88 /  10  20   0  10
SSI  73  83  72  83 /  10  20   0  10
JAX  72  86  69  88 /  10  30   0  10
SGJ  75  85  73  85 /  20  30   0  10
GNV  70  89  68  90 /  20  20   0  10
OCF  73  88  69  89 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-
     138-225-233-325-333.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ132-137-
     633.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ138-233-333.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ452-454-472-
     474.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470.

&&

$$