041
FXUS62 KJAX 221832
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The trough will slowly move further away to the northeast tonight,
as high pressure builds closer to the west northwest. Winds will
diminish this evening, but enough of a gradient will persist to
keep winds stirring through the night. This stirring of the winds
will minimize the potential for frost tonight, despite temperatures
falling into the middle 30s inland. Lows east of I95 will be milder
with lows in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Cool and very dry northwesterly flow aloft will gradually back
southwesterly through the weekend while a surface ridge builds from
west and rests overhead Sunday. Temperatures will remain quite
chilly through the weekend though afternoon highs will gradaully
warm from the low 60s Saturday to the lower 70s by Sunday. Overnight
temeperatures are likely to reach the lowest readings so far this
Autumn on Sunday morning. Under light winds and clear skies, inland
temperatures will all to the mid to low 30s across portions of SE GA
and the Suwannee Valley; elsewhere, temperatures will be warmer,
especially at the coast where lows will read in the low to mid 40s.

Patchy or areas of frost will be more likely Sunday morning given
the calm and near-freezing conditions. Frost development will be
more likely across the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Rebounding temperatures are expected during the first half of next
week as weakening frontal boundary approaches. That frontal boundary
appears to stall across the area and may bring the potential for a
few mornings of fog, especially Tuesday morning. A more robust
frontal system, supported by a more amplified upper trough, will
push into the area Thursday or Thursday night into Friday next week.
As it does so, the moisture pooling ahead of it should be enough to
support at least a low chance for rain showers. Ensemble soundings,
specifically at KJAX, indicate (with farily high confidence) that a
stable airmass aloft will inhibit the potential for thunderstorm
development. Temperatures will trend toward the upper 70s through
the week before cold air plunges in from the north once again next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions to prevail this period. Winds will continue to be
elevated and gusty this afternoon, but decrease around sunset. Light
west northwest winds are expected Tonight through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Trough of low pressure will move off to the northeast through
Tonight, as high pressure builds from the west northwest. The high
will build overhead Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. A
high pressure ridge, centered to the east northeast will stretch
across the region Sunday and Monday. A weak cold front will move
into the region from the north Tuesday night. This boundary will
weaken and dissipate, as ridging builds back Wednesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low through Saturday
              NE FL Moderate Today, Low Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through
the afternoon due to breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 25 mph.
Winds will trend weaker over the weekend as high pressure builds
from the west. Temperatures and afternoon humidity will both trend
upward through the weekend and into next week. A weak front will
stall across the area during the middle part of next week before a
stronger front plunges across the area to end the week. Chilly
overnight temperatures may result in patchy fog tonight and again
Sunday morning. The increasing moisture and stalling boundary will
increase fog potential Tuesday and Wednesday morning next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  61  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  63  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  36  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  64  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  35  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  36  65  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$