716
FXUS62 KJAX 021800
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM JAX NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Showers and storms are beginning to move across the local area
early this afternoon, with activity over SE GA moving along the
frontal boundary draped over northern SE GA. Satellite derived
PWATs still indicate values above 2" across the local area with
higher amounts of 2.25" to 2.35" along the frontal boundary over
SE GA. Activity will begin to increase in the next hour or so,
primarily along the frontal boundary where periods of heavy
downpours will bring the threat for localized flooding along urban
areas and poor drainage areas for locations generally north of
the I-10 corridor and northward across SE GA. These heavy
downpours could result in rainfall rates 3"/hr or greater as
numerous to widespread showers and storms develop during the
afternoon hours and into the early evening hours. WPC has expanded
the Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of flash flooding rainfall
southward a bit towards the I-10 corridor over NE FL as well as
the Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of flash flooding rainfall to
include all of NE FL. The frontal boundary will continue to shift
southward towards the FL/GA state line through the evening, with
showers and storms likely to develop along the I-10 corridor and
towards the I-95 corridor.

With the cloudier skies over much of the local area and wetter
pattern, max Temps will top out in the lower 90s for most
locations, with a few locations potentially hitting the mid 90s.
Overnight lows will span in the 70s, with lower 70s over SE GA and
mid to upper 70s for NE FL and along coastal locations.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across the FL/GA
state border into early next week continuing the wet and unsettled
pattern. Deep tropical airmass situated over the region will
support waves of numerous to widespread showers and storms capable
of producing heavy downpours. Stronger storms will be mainly
focused along the frontal boundary and sea breeze interactions
along and north of the I-10 corridor. The main hazards will be
localized flash flooding especially where storms train and gusty
winds. A north-south temperature gradient will develop with the
front dividing the area with highs ranging from the mid 80s along
the Altamaha river basin to the mid 90s in north-central FL.
Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A weakening frontal boundary over the FL/GA state border on
Tuesday will gradually shift southward through the week. Slightly
drier air filters into the area as high pressure builds back into
region returning to a more typical diurnal pattern of showers and
thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes in the
afternoons/evenings. However, saturated soils from the recent
multi-day rainfall will make it easier for areas to flood.
Temperatures will be around seasonable with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Adjusted timing of TEMPO groups from the previous TAF package as
convective activity is already impacting a few of the TAF sites
early this afternoon. Most showers and storms will continue
through the afternoon hours into the evening hours, with showers
expected to linger close to 04Z/05Z. Periods of lower vsbys likely
during as convective activity moves over the TAFs this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The frontal boundary will move towards southeast Georgia waters
later this afternoon, resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorm
to develop by this afternoon and continue into the evening hours,
with the potential for some embedded strong storms. The frontal
boundary will push towards the northeast Florida waters by Sunday
and residing through Monday, weakening as high pressure wedges in
from the north. High pressure remains wedged to the north as coastal
troughing lingers offshore from Tuesday onward, setting up a
predominant onshore flow.


Rip Currents: Low to moderate rip current risk today with
surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range. A more solid Moderate risk
of rips will develop later on Sunday into Monday as a more
onshore wind component pushes surf/breakers into the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  84  71  86 /  90  90  70  80
SSI  76  85  76  88 /  80  80  80  80
JAX  74  90  73  92 /  70  90  60  80
SGJ  76  89  76  91 /  60  80  50  70
GNV  75  92  73  93 /  40  70  30  80
OCF  76  92  74  93 /  30  60  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$