424
FXUS62 KJAX 240600
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
100 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today.

- Locally Dense Fog Near I-95 This Morning in Northeast Florida

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night

- Small Craft Advisories through Monday Night

- Widespread Inland Freezes likely Monday Night through Wednesday
Night

- Severe Drought Conditions Expanding Across our Region

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Nearly stationary frontal boundary was analyzed near the FL/GA
border of 03Z, with most of the boundary, especially the eastern
"back door" portion, expected to continue to drop southward through
this morning. The front is expected to settle over southern portions
of the area by late this morning, as a strong surface ridge builds
into areas north of the front which will also help to induce an
inverted trough to form just offshore of the Florida Peninsula.
Along with a breezy northeasterly flow behind the backdoor front in
the strengthening pressure gradient, plenty of cloud cover will
fill into much as the region, along with isolated to scattered
showers closer to the FL coast by this afternoon and evening as
the offshore trough strengthens. The highest concentration of
rain expected to be over northeast FL waters & coast closer to
the frontal boundary, with a mainly dry day elsewhere expected
for a few isolated showers possible near the GA coast.
Temperatures will also vary rather significantly thanks to the
northeast flow and stalled frontal boundary. Upper 50s to mid
60s are expected from about I-10 northward, and with the
boundary expected to hover near about SR20 in FL, this will
likely be where the tightest gradient in max temps will be, as
upper 60s to low 70s are forecast for cities like Gainesville
and Palatka, with areas like Ocala and southern Marion County
expected to be well into the 70s. Depending on exactly where
this boundary sets up could easily impact forecast high temps,
especially over most of northeast FL.

The boundary is not expected to remain stationary for very long, as
a lift back to the north will begin tonight as a warm front. This
will take the coastal trough and associated showers near the coast
with it, and therefore coastal shower chances drop from south to
north throughout the night as this occurs. With plenty of cloud
cover over much of the area and the front lifting northward, it
is quite possible that temps reach their minimum around or
before midnight tonight before remaining nearly steady
overnight. These lows will be generally in the mid 40s to low
50s over GA and low to upper 50s over northeast FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Sunday, the forecast area will be firmly established within the
warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. A warm front will
lift north into southeast Georgia during the morning, promoting
strong warm air advection and a pronounced warming trend across the
region. Strengthening southerly flow will bring warmer and
increasingly humid conditions, with afternoon highs reaching the mid
to upper 70s across southeast Georgia and the upper 70s to lower 80s
across northeast Florida. A few locations may approach or exceed
daily record highs.

Attention then turns to a cold front advancing from the northwest
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop initially across western zones, spreading
eastward across the remainder of the forecast area Sunday night.
Rain chances will increase markedly after sunset, with widespread
showers likely. SPC has placed portions of inland northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms. While instability will remain limited, strong deep-
layer shear may support a more organized line of storms capable of
producing isolated strong to damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado
cannot be completely ruled out, particularly across far interior
portions of SE GA.

The cold front will progress through the region overnight, with
showers gradually diminishing from west to east toward daybreak
Monday. Lows will fall into the mid 40s across southeast Georgia and
the lower to mid 50s across northeast Florida as cooler air filters
in behind the front.

Isolated showers may linger into early Monday morning, mainly
southeast of a St. Simons Island to Lake City line, before clearing
as the front exits the area. In its wake, a strong arctic air mass
will surge southward, ushering in much colder and drier conditions.
Temperatures will fall through the day Monday, with afternoon highs
only reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida. Skies will clear from west to east during the
afternoon as high pressure builds in. Monday night will mark the
first of several very cold nights, with inland lows dropping into
the 20s and coastal temperatures near 30 degrees. Wind chills during
the predawn hours will range from the teens inland to the lower 20s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long-term period will be characterized by a prolonged stretch of
well-below-normal temperatures as arctic high pressure settles over
the southeastern United States. Widespread inland freezes are
expected through Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s across inland
portions of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Coastal
locations will see lows near or just above freezing. Wind chill
values will fall into the teens and lower 20s, resulting in
potentially hazardous cold conditions.

Tuesday will be sunny but very cold, with highs limited to the mid
to upper 40s across southeast Georgia and the upper 40s to lower 50s
across northeast Florida. A gradual moderation trend will begin by
Wednesday, though temperatures will remain below climatological
averages. Highs will recover into the 50s, with overnight lows
ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Another reinforcing cold front
may move through later in the week, maintaining dry weather and
continued chilly conditions through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Low stratus and some areas of fog are starting to impact coastal
terminals north of SGJ this morning. Though low stratus/MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected to continue for most areas throughout the
forecast period, a surge of northeasterly winds behind a cold front
dropping southward this morning should mostly dissipate any fog/vsby
related impacts by mid morning. Aside from ceiling restrictions,
breezy northeasterly winds over 10 knots will be expected for most
if not all airfields by this afternoon, which will subside tonight
as the aforementioned front lifts back towards north of the
area.

&&

.MARINE...

A frontal boundary will push southward through the local waters
tonight. Dense sea fog development will be possible across the
nearshore waters this evening. Northeast winds briefly surge in
the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday with Small Craft
Advisory conditions expected. Meanwhile, a winter storm
developing over the deep South on Saturday and Saturday night
will shift northeast, lifting a warm front northward across our
local waters on Saturday night. Winds will shift to south and
then southwest on Sunday ahead of another cold front, which
could be accompanied by a few thunderstorms on Sunday night.
Arctic high pressure will then build into the southeast states
in the wake of this cold frontal passage early next week,
continuing Small Craft Advisory conditions into early next week
as breezy northwest winds shift to north while strengthening
further on Monday night.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate risk of rip expected through the
weekend, with potential for brief High Risk at times as the
Northeast winds surge along the SE GA/NE FL coast on Saturday.
Surf/breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range, although briefly in the
3-5 ft range following the surge of Northeast winds this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fair dispersion conditions are expected today with prevailing
northeasterly transport winds around 15 mph, increasing slightly
near the southeast Georgia and northeast Florida coast. Early this
morning, areas of fog and low stratus may limit visibilities south
of I-10. A low chance exists for an isolated shower or two this
afternoon.

Winds this evening will remain primarily east-northeasterly,
becoming easterly by daybreak Sunday. A slight chance of showers
persists overnight, mainly north of Waycross. On Sunday afternoon,
south-southwesterly transport winds will increase ahead of a strong
cold front. Breezy surface winds will support high dispersion
values. The cold front will move across the region Sunday night,
bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
strong Sunday evening, especially across interior southeast Georgia
and the Suwannee Valley.

Another period of high dispersion is expected Monday with a breezy
northwest flow behind the front. A much colder and drier airmass
will settle into the region early next week and persist through
midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog and low stratus are
expected this morning south of I-10. Frost and freeze potential
returns early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near Record Highs Sunday, January 25...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25:
KJAX: 83/2023
KGNV: 85/1950
KCRG: 81/2024

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  45  75  42 /  10  10  20  90
SSI  58  50  73  47 /  20  20   0  70
JAX  63  53  82  52 /  20  10   0  60
SGJ  67  57  80  56 /  20  10   0  50
GNV  72  56  83  56 /   0   0   0  80
OCF  76  58  84  59 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to midnight
     EST tonight for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EST
     tonight for AMZ452.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ470.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ472.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ474.

&&

$$