982
FXUS62 KJAX 191721
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
121 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Cold front will sink to the south Tonight, with high pressure
building from the north. A few afternoon/evening showers and storms
possible, mainly north central FL and I75 corridor through this
evening, then a mainly dry night is forecast. Patchy fog will be
possible again Tonight. Lows ranging from the upper 60s for
interior SE GA to the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure will build from the north northeast this period. A
weak inverted trough will develop over the coastal waters. This
pattern will yield an onshore flow. A few showers and storms will be
possible each day due to diurnal instability and convergence
associated with inverted trough. This activity will dissipate during
the evening hours each day, with dry nights forecast. Near normal
temperatures are expected during the day time hours. A wide range
in temperatures is forecast during the nights due to the onshore
flow. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to the mid 70s coast
each night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure will be centered to the north northeast through
Wednesday, continuing the onshore flow pattern. This ridge is
expected to lift away to the north northeast Thursday, as a trough
of low pressure digs along the east coast of the US. Much of this
period will be dry, but precipitation chances will increase mid
week due to the trough. Daytime temperatures will be around seasonal
averages. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will vary across
area at night. Lows inland this period will generally be in the mid
to upper 60s, with lower to mid 70s at the coast.

The tropics are expected to become more active next week, with a
tropical system possibly forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico
and drifting northward. Use this weekend to restock supply kits,
review family evacuation plans and considering some shelter
maintenance like trimming trees. Monitor official tropical
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and
local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A brief period of MVFR restrictions in stratus will be possible
early this period, otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are forecast
for this afternoon into Tonight. A few inland showers and storms
will be possible this afternoon. Of the local area TAF sites, KGNV
will have the greatest chance for a brief shower or storm. Patchy
fog is expected to develop toward dawn Friday, with restrictions
possible at area TAF sites. Isolated showers and storms will be
possible Friday afternoon and could affect each area TAF site.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Cold front will move south of the area through Tonight. High
pressure will build to the north northeast Friday, and remain
through the early part of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Friday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Coastal flood advisory ongoing for St Johns due to high levels from
recent rains, along with tides and onshore flow. With the onshore
flow strengthening on Friday, this potential will increase and
extend down the NE FL coast as well. The Coastal Flood Advisory
includes both the NE FL coast, and St Johns river basin for Friday
into Friday night. The flooding potential will be greatest around
times of high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  67  87 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  73  83  73  83 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  70  87  71  86 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  74  86  74  86 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  71  90  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
OCF  71  90  71  90 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ033-038-
     125-132-137-225-325.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     FLZ124-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$