374
FXUS62 KJAX 281218
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
818 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches
  Today.

- Patchy Fog Possible at Inland Locations Early on Wednesday
  Morning.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Wednesday through
  Thursday

- Scattered Thunderstorms and Widespread Beneficial Rainfall
  Possible During the Weekend. Potential Rainfall Totals of 1-3
  Inches Wednesday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Patchy Fog Possible at Inland Locations Early on Wednesday
  Morning.

High pressure across the eastern seaboard gradually weakens as
it shifts southward off the coast of the southeastern seaboard
by tonight. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning
across inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley where winds decouple and
skies clear. The fog combined with any smoke near wildfires
will create localized superfog conditions, greatly lowering
visibility. Dry airmass (PWATS 0.5-0.8 in) and building
subsidence will keep the area rain-free today. Winds subside and
shift to easterly with the high building to our east and the
developing afternoon Atlantic sea breeze. Highs today warm into
the upper 70s along the coast to the upper 80s-90 further
inland. An upper shortwave will move through the SE US later
tonight potentially bringing a few showers to the Ocmulgee river
basin. Patchy fog will be possible early Wednesday morning for
inland NE FL where skies will be clearer. With flow shifting to
SE, lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Suppressed ridging southward will allow for disturbances to move
  to the region and eventually bring unsettled weather to the area

- Rain chances are enhanced for north portions Wed-Wed night,
  and then all of the area Thurs-Thurs night. An isolated
  strong storm or two is possible.

On Wednesday, a shortwave disturbance will be passing across the
area early in the day that will be bringing a chance of
convection to the northern zones, with a cool frontal boundary
moving through the eastern U.S. Pre-frontal troughing is
apparent in the guidance across our area with a prevailing
southwest flow by the afternoon that will be breezy at times.
Very warm temps in the 80s to lower 90s expected reaching near
record highs.

Wednesday night, yet another mid level disturbance will be over
the central Gulf coast Wednesday evening, heading eastward,
and into our area after midnight. The frontal boundary will be
headed to our area and should be at the Altamaha River Basin by
about 6 AM Thursday. Scattered convection is anticipated, with
model soundings showing elevated instability to support t-storms
as well. A severe threat looks low at this time, but not out of
the question as there may be some chance of wind threat with
some of the storms. Above normal lows in the 60s expected given
the warm regime ahead of the front.

Thursday, the frontal boundary and possible frontal wave energy
will sag southeastward across the area prompting rain chances
over much of the area for the day. Main precip area initially
will be across southeast GA, and then during late morning and
through the aftn focused over northeast FL. At this time, severe
threat looks like owing to weak instability. Max temps will be
limited from cloud cover and the cool front and therefore so
lower max temps than Wednesday. The front does look to slow, if
not begin to stall late in the day into Thursday night. Both the
NAM, GFS, and ECMWF show this nearly stationary front across
northeast FL or north central FL on Thursday night, which should
continue to support a chance of precip into the night, though
not high chances.

Overall, this midweek period marks the beginning of a transition
toward a more unsettled pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weather but beneficial rains expected.

- Isolated strong/severe storms possible Saturday.

As we head into Friday, the stationary frontal boundary will be
draped across portions of northeast FL first half of the day,
and then may begin to lift northward in response to sfc frontal
wave development west of the area along the north Gulf coast.
There is a chance of showers and possibly a couple of t-storms
as the daytime heating and the frontal boundary will serve as a
focus for lift. In addition, a localized weak wave of low
pressure along the front may transit eastward across far
southeast GA. Frontal forcing and lift may increase as we move
into Friday night with the approach of stronger frontal wave,
with low level flow increasing from the southwest. Expect a
chance of showers and possible thunderstorms from about I-10
corridor northward.

GFS and ECMWF show the warm front lifted up into southeast GA
early Saturday with the formed sfc low that was along the Gulf
coast approaching our area. The GFS shows more of a potential
severe weather threat than the ECMWF, with the GFS showing
greater instability ahead of the renewed cold front trailing a
sfc low that`s over central GA. The threat would be damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado threat, though confidence remains
low. In any event, elevated rain chances are anticipated
Saturday into Saturday night as the cold front pushes through
the forecast area and then to near north central FL by near
sunrise on Sunday.

For rest of Sunday, the front will be moving southeastward over
the FL peninsula, but overrunning clouds and precip are
anticipated for the morning hours (especially northeast FL) with
possible lowering of rain chances during the afternoon and
certainly by the evening as energy moves east of the area.
However, there are model differences in how long this
overrunning period lingers and so confidence at this point drops
further.

Model consensus indicates late Sunday night the front and
associated low shifting east and southeast of the area. This
will lead to decreasing rain chances into early Monday. Thus,
expect Monday will be dry behind the front and high pressure
will build in from the north producing a north to northeast
flow.

Temperatures will be near or above normal Friday. Still quite
warm/above normal Saturday over northeast FL ahead of the cold
front and below normal for southeast GA. Cooler conditions
expected Sunday and Monday, with temperatures trending slightly
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

IFR ceilings at JAX and CRG, accompanied by a few light showers
or sprinkles early this morning, are expected to improve to
MVFR by 13Z and VFR by 14Z. MVFR ceilings at SGJ and VQQ are
expected to improve to VFR towards 15Z. VFR conditions at GNV
and SSI may briefly deteriorate to MVFR towards 13Z, but
conditions should improve to VFR towards 15Z. IFR conditions are
then expected to develop towards 08Z at VQQ as high cloud cover
that moves overhead later this afternoon begins to thin out
during the predawn hours on Wednesday. Surface winds will become
northeasterly around 5 knots before 14Z, followed by winds
shifting to east-northeasterly at 5-10 knots by 17Z at the
inland terminals, while speeds at the SGJ and SSI coastal
terminals increase to 10-15 knots by 18Z. Surface winds will
shift to southerly while gradually diminishing to around 5 knots
by 02Z this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Weakening high pressure will shift southward off the
southeastern seaboard today. A cold front will then enter the
southeastern states on Wednesday, possibly bringing a few
showers and thunderstorms to the Georgia waters Wednesday night.
This front will then move south across the rest of our local
waters on Thursday and Thursday evening, accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms. A wave of low pressure develops over the Gulf
this weekend, likely spreading additional showers and
thunderstorms across our local waters during the upcoming
weekend.

Rip Currents:

High risk of rip currents is expected across NE FL beaches today
due to onshore winds and long period swells. High end moderate
risk prevails at SE GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Daytime Dispersion Likely Wednesday

- Patchy High Daytime Dispersion Thursday

Dry today as northeast morning winds turn more east-
southeasterly in the afternoon. Min RH will be as low as the
mid 30s west of U.S. Highway 301. On Wednesday, a breezy
southwest flow develops and lower RH values are expected down as
low as 30-35 percent.

High dispersion values are expected on Wednesday ahead of the
next frontal boundary where mixing heights during the
afternoon range from 6.0 to 7.5 kft with s prevailing west-
southwesterly transport winds at 15 to 20 mph. Patchy high
dispersion possible on Thursday with west to slightly northwest
transport winds at 15 mph.

Chances of wetting rains increases from around the I-10
northward on late Wednesday night into Thursday, including the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. There`s also the
potential for more rain for the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is possible inland
early on Wednesday morning. Smoke from nearby fires may result
in localized visibility reductions, especially during the
overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 29:
KJAX: 93/1991
KGNV: 95/2017
KAMG: 93/2012
KCRG: 91/2021

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  64  89  65 /   0  20  20  40
SSI  78  66  86  68 /  10   0  10  30
JAX  83  63  92  66 /  10   0  10  20
SGJ  81  64  89  67 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  89  61  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  89  63  90  66 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ472-
     474.

&&

$$