Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
899 FXUS62 KJAX 030548 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1248 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Dense Fog & Sea Fog this Morning. Nightly Areas of Dense Fog Likely through the Week - Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds This Week. Elevated Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday - Record High Temperatures Later This Week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT: - Dense fog along the SE GA coast this morning, fog along and north of I-10 corridor - Another round of fog tonight Coastal troughing over the area will maintain elevated ENE winds overnight advecting fog/stratus into our area mainly along and north of the I-10 corridor. Elevated winds have lifted dense fog from the Duval coast and may continue to lift the dense fog up the SE GA coast into the morning hours. Fog/stratus will gradually lift and dissipate through the mid-late morning hours. Temperatures quickly warm into the mid 70s to low 80s inland. Breezy ENE flow will keep highs along the coast in the mid 60s to low 70s. Another round of sea fog developing across the SE GA nearshore waters late this afternoon and gradually shift inland this evening into tonight. Patchy fog will be possible across the area tonight into Wednesday morning with the best chances for dense fog along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During the Period: - Nightly Fog, Possibly Locally Dense - Moderate to High Rip Currents Temperatures will trend warmer each day as mid to upper level ridging builds overhead. While dry air aloft will remain in place, limiting threat of convection, the position of the low level ridge will lead to a prolonged southeasterly flow. Increasing dew points across the waters may lead to a continuation of sea fog formation and possible coastal fog each day as sea fog sloshes with the onshore flow. Similarly, the increased dew points will increase the potential for nightly inland fog as well, which could become dense as boundary layer winds will trend light to calm overnight. A few showers possible over the coastal waters mainly offshore as a weak inverted surface forms Wednesday. As the sea breeze strengthens, scattered showers will spread inland across NE FL Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs will push to the mid 80s Wednesday and upper 80s by Thursday. Coastal areas will be several degrees cooler due to onshore flow. Lows mild from about 50-55 inland around 60 coast Wednesday night, increasing to the low/mid 60s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Weather Highlights: - Record High Temperatures possible Thursday through the Weekend - Scattered Showers and Slight Chance of Thunderstorms this weekend Deep layer high pressure system will remain east keeping a southeast flow across the area. A bit more low level moisture will arrive on the southeasterly flow this period, increasing the chances for showers Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Thunderstorm potential though remains low given the warmer temps and dry air aloft. Upper ridging is progged to break down Sunday in advance of dampening trough, resulting in a the flow aloft becoming more zonal. The weak front associated with the weakening trough aloft will fade as it approaches the area Monday, likely resulting in little rain for SE GA. Well- above normal, possibly record-setting, temperatures continue through the weekend as do chances for fog and sea fog. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Elevated ENE winds have begun to lift the LIFR fog/stratus from the Duval TAF sites. Fog/stratus will continue to advect inland but uncertain if it will make it to GNV this morning. Have TEMPO in for lower vsby/cig. SSI will gradually lift back to VFR by 14Z. ENE winds 5-10 kts prevail through the period. Another round of sea fog/stratus advecting inland will be possible tonight into Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Dense sea fog across the southeast Georgia nearshore waters will likely linger into mid morning hours. A coastal trough will remain over the waters as high pressure moves more toward the northeast Today and Wednesday. The high will be centered to the east northeast Thursday into the weekend, with the ridge extending across forecast area. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at area beaches with some persistent onshore flow and surf height around 2 to 4 feet. Rip current risk increases as flow becomes more easterly on Wednesday with potential high risk for NE FL beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures trend warmer through the rest of the week and remain near record high levels through the weekend. Humidity will remain well above critical levels through the weekend as moderate afternoon sea breezes spread moisture inland. Scattered showers may pulse along the sea breeze as it moves toward I-75 each afternoon beginning Thursday. Given the dry air aloft, there will be low chances for thunderstorms with the sea breeze shower activity. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible again Wednesday morning. Patchy fog to areas of fog possible again Thursday and Friday mornings. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: March 4: KAMG: 86/1961 March 5: KJAX: 87/2020 KGNV: 87/1997 KAMG: 87/1989 March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961 March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956 March 8: KJAX: 88/1945 KGNV: 88/1921 KAMG: 86/1974 Record High Minimum Temperatures: March 7: KGNV: 66/1935 March 8: KGNV: 65/1973 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 56 71 58 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 77 57 80 58 / 0 0 10 0 SGJ 75 59 75 60 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 82 58 86 60 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 83 59 86 61 / 0 0 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ124-125. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452. && $$