215
FXUS62 KJAX 010505
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1205 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Light Freeze and Widespread Frost Late Tonight through Early
Thursday. Freeze Warning for Inland Southeast GA, Northeast & North
Central FL. Frost Advisory for Coastal Southeast GA, Locations Along
& West of I-95 in Northeast FL. Patchy/Areas of Frost along and north
of I-10 Early Thursday Morning

- Small Craft Advisory Tonight for the Offshore Coastal Waters

- Isolated TStorms & Beneficial Rainfall Saturday and Saturday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today...Following a light freeze/frost early this morning, high
pressure will remain just south of the area across the Florida
Peninsula and westerly flow will bump up temps closer to normal
values to start the new year with highs in the lower 60s across SE
GA and middle 60s across NE FL under sunny skies. Westerly surface
winds will increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 20
mph at times and will combine with low humidities and current
drought conditions to continue elevated fire danger conditions
across the region.

Tonight...High pressure ridge axis will remain south of the region
tonight and temps will crash once again under clear skies at sunset,
but some increase in high clouds is expected after midnight which
should keep overnight lows above freezing with lows in the middle
30s over inland areas from the I-10 corridor northward across inland
SE GA with still some patchy/areas of frost possible, but likely not
enough to support any frost headlines. Lows expected in the lower
40s along the Atlantic coast, with near 40F readings across inland
NE FL to the south of the I-10 corridor, while the injection of some
low level moisture from the NE Gulf in light W-SW flow will support
the development of some patchy/areas of fog along the I-75 corridor
near the GNV/OCF vicinity, some of which could become locally dense
towards sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday, mid/upper level troughing will lift away from the southeast
and become zonal downstream of a southern stream shortwave impulses
emerging from the southern Rockies into the southern plains. High
pressure at the surface over the eastern Gulf will move eastward
across southern FL to the Bahamas and local winds will become
southwesterly as a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf coast to
the TN valley with showers spreading across the deep south. A jet
streak crossing the Gulf coast will bring increasing mid and high
level clouds from the west in the afternoon. Weak warm air advection
will bump up highs a few degrees more than Thursday despite the
clouds rising to the mid/upper 60s over SE GA and upper 60s over NE
FL to around 70F over north central FL.

Friday night, winds will become more southerly with low and mid
level clouds creating partly to mostly cloudy skies. A surface low
will move east along I-20 across MS and AL with a fetch of showers
approaching the western SE GA counties by sunrise. Lows will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday, troughing reforms over the eastern half of the country as
shortwaves along the southern and northern branch combine and
strengthen a surface low over central GA as it moves east to the
Carolina coastline. A wave of showers and embedded isolated to
scattered T`storms will shift west to east over our area Saturday
afternoon. Total rainfall appears to be around a half inch or so
over SE GA and a quarter to a half inch over NE FL. There may be a
few streaks of locally higher totals over one inch, but the system
appears progressive enough to limit heavier totals. Most T`storm
activity will be elevated and likely not surface based as dewpoints
struggle to rise into the low 60s, limiting low level instability,
so there remains a low potential for strong to severe T`storms.
Highs will reach around 70F over Se GA and the low to mid 70s over
NE FL.

Last of showers/isolated T`storms will move off the Atlantic coast
after midnight and winds will turn northwesterly behind the cold
front late overnight. Cool air advection will bring temperatures
into the 40s across SE GA by sunrise, but only the low/mid 50s over
NE FL as the front passes through later. Clouds will linger through
sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday, high pressure builds in from the NW under gradually clearing
skies by midday. Some low level clouds will persist along the NE FL
coast in the north to NNE flow and a few light showers or drizzle
may drift onto the NE FL coast through the afternoon. Highs will
cool back to near normal in the low 60s over SE GA and the mid 60s
over NE FL. High pressure will build to the north Sunday night with
lows inland near normal in the low 40s north of I-10 and mid 40s
south of I-10 and upper 40s to low 50s at the coast.

Monday, high pressure will shift from the north to more to the
northeast off the Delmarva peninsula with northeasterly winds. The
onshore flow will bring in marine stratocumulus clouds from the
Atlantic waters onshore as a weak coastal trough forms, but showers
are not expected. Highs will be near normal over SE GA in the low
60s and in the mid/upper 60s along the coast, warming above normal
over inland NE FL south of I-10 in the low 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday, zonal flow aloft will be over the region as a
couple of shortwave impulses move east across the Great Lakes and OH
river valley. Weak high pressure will shift east off the Outer Banks
of NC and extend WSW across our area Tuesday, shift further into the
Atlantic waters Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the north.
Light winds from the south Tuesday and southwest Wednesday expected
with a weak Atlantic seabreeze moving onshore each afternoon.

Tuesday morning lows will be near normal in the low/mid 40s inland
to slightly above normal near 50F along the NE FL coast, then warm a
bit Wednesday morning with mid/upper 40s inland to the mid 50s along
the coast. Highs will be above normal each day with low/mid 70s by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this 06z TAF period. West winds will
increase to around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots in the 15-21Z
time frame today.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will slowly weaken as it pushes eastward across the
Gulf Today, becoming centered over south Florida by Friday. Gusty
West winds this morning will shift to southwesterly while slowly
diminishing this afternoon through Friday. Weak low pressure
developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday will shift
eastward across the southeastern states on Saturday, moving offshore
on Saturday night. This storm system will bring showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms to our area on Saturday and Saturday night,
along with Small Craft Advisory conditions for the offshore waters.
Breezy northerly winds are forecast in the wake of this storm system
on Sunday and Sunday night. Winds will shift to north-northeasterly
by Monday as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, then Low Friday and Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ON FRIDAY...



Breezy westerly winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph expected
today as a dry cold front passes east of the area and high pressure
moves in over the central Gulf waters. Sunny skies and breezy winds
will lower Min RH values to near critical values away from the coast
25-30 percent over SE GA and 28-33 percent over NE FL. Dispersions
in the good range. On Friday, increasing high clouds and southwest
winds 8-12 mph will help gradually increase moisture levels above
critical levels. Areas of high dispersions develop Friday due to
breezy west southwest transport winds and increasing mixing heights.

A low pressure system will bring a wetting rainfall to the area
Saturday ending Saturday night. Dry conditions return Sunday into
next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread frost and freeze over
inland locations through early this morning. Areas of fog will form
late tonight into early Friday along I-75 into north central FL with
patchy to areas of frost along and north of I-10. Isolated
thunderstorms possible Saturday with general rainfall amounts of
around a half inch with locally higher totals over an inch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  36  66  50 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  62  43  66  53 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  64  38  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  65  41  68  52 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  39  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  38  71  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-137-140-220-232-236-237-240-322-340-
     422-425-522.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-225-325-433-533-633.
GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-
     472.

&&

$$