124
FXUS62 KJAX 052336
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
736 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Bulk of the airmass has been worked over with convection
trending downward across SE GA and fading across NE FL early this
evening. Mild, muggy conditions are expected once convection
completely fades with potential for localized and shallow ground fog
possible by daybreak Friday. Temperatures will fall to lower 70s
overnight.

Southwesterly flow will keep chances for numerous afternoon showers
and storms again to end the work week; however, coverage may be
thinned out by some dry layers and warming aloft on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Southwesterly flow will continue to dominant across the area
allowing for the Gulf breeze to move well inland and keep the
Atlantic breeze pinned along the coast through the weekend. As
gulf moisture continues to filter into the area, PWATs will range
from 1.75" to 2.0", which will help to increase the chances of
precipitation, 60% and above, across the majority of the local
area during the upcoming weekend. In addition to the increase
PWATs, diurnal heating will help to destabilize the local
environment and increase the chances of strong to severe storms to
develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday and Sunday along
the Gulf breeze. Locations in SE GA, particularly the Altamaha
River Basin, are expected to have the higher chances of severe
storms as shortwaves try to move into SE GA. At this time, the
Storm Prediction Center has a "Slight" risk of severe storms near
the Altamaha River basin for this potential and a Marginal risk
for the rest of SE GA on Saturday. On Sunday, while not in a
"Slight" risk at the moment, SPC is highlighting locations along
the Altamaha River basin and northern SE GA coastal locations with
a 15% chance for severe thunderstorm development. The main
thunderstorm hazards each day will be locally heavy rainfall,
especially where cell mergers occur, as well as gusty downburst
winds. Daytime highs will be in the low/mid 90s with heat indices
near 105 on Saturday. Overnight lows dip into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The wet weather pattern continues into the upcoming week as the
southwesterly flow continues to allow for gulf moisture to filter
into the area. The Gulf breeze will continue to move well inland
during the first half of the upcoming week as the Atlantic breeze
remains along the coast. Passing shortwaves along the northern
locations of SE GA will likely see higher potential for severe
storms. A shift in the southwesterly flow as the Bermuda High
looks to strengthen and stretch over the region near midweek, will
allow for the Atlantic breeze to move further inland. Highs will
continue in the lower/mid 90s as the westerly flow continues, but
cooler temperatures along the Atlantic coast will begin to develop
as the east coast breeze begins to make its way towards inland
locations by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Afternoon convection has mostly faded, leaving VFR conditions in
the wake with leftover cloud cover. Winds will be under 10 knots
and continue to trend light through the overnight, favoring a
southwesterly direction. Localized ground fog may develop at sites
that received downpours this afternoon but confidence to include
with this package was just a bit too low. Southwesterly flow
remains through Friday with additional afternoon storm potential.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Weak low pressure situated along a warm front that is positioned
over the Carolinas will move northeastward, pushing off the North
Carolina Outer Banks by Friday night. Atlantic high pressure will
otherwise continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida
peninsula during the next several days. Southerly winds will
briefly surge to Caution levels offshore this evening, followed by
prevailing southwesterly winds from Friday through the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters
through the evening hours tonight. Stronger storms will be capable
of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes
and torrential downpours. Daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will push eastward across our region from Friday
through the weekend, mostly during the afternoon and evening
hours. Strong to severe storms will be possible this weekend and
early next week, mainly across the Georgia waters. Seas of 2 to 4
feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next
several days.

Rip Currents: A persistent southeasterly ocean swell will keep a
moderate rip current risk in place this afternoon at the northeast
FL beaches. Prevailing offshore winds should yield a low risk at
all area beaches from Friday through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Breezy southwesterly transport winds will yield fair daytime
dispersion values across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley, where showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
early this afternoon. This activity will spread eastward during
the mid and late afternoon hours, with good dispersion values
forecast before the arrival of these showers and thunderstorms for
coastal southeast GA, the rest of northeast FL and north central
FL. Surface and transport winds will shift to westerly for Friday
and Saturday, with good daytime dispersion values expected area-
wide as breezy transport speeds continue. Elevated mixing heights
are expected during the weekend and early next week, resulting in
possibly high daytime dispersion values at inland locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  70  90  72 /  60  40  60  10
SSI  86  74  89  75 /  70  20  60  20
JAX  90  71  93  72 /  80  10  50  10
SGJ  89  72  91  72 /  80  10  50  10
GNV  90  71  93  72 /  50  10  50   0
OCF  92  72  92  72 /  60  10  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$