095
FXUS62 KJAX 040549
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
149 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...STRONG PULSE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Deep west-southwestelry flow and convergence along stationary front
will continue to encourage elevated showers to develop and push
across the lower Suwannee Valley and continue northeastward
across SE GA where some lingering instability remains. Similarly,
outflow pushing northward along the central FL coast may spark
scattered showers across coastal areas of north-central FL and
possible into St Johns County during the predawn hours.

Though the frontal zone and the high-grade moisture along it will be
shunted northward today, there will still be plenty of diurnal
instability to fuel numerous to widespread convection once again
today. Steering flow will turn more south-southwesterly through the
morning, still favoring a progressive Gulf breeze and pinning the
Atlc sea breeze to the I-95 corridor. CAMs are in good agreement
in a sea breeze collision near or slightly west of the I-95
corridor/St Johns River in NE FL during the mid to late afternoon
hours, resulting in scattered strong storms that will proceed
eastward into the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, the amalgamating
outflows will lift northward and interact with the lifting frontal
zone across SE GA, near US-82, around the same time and continue
northward to the Altamaha river during the early evening hours.

Given the general southerly steering flow around 10 mph, the
convection should fast enough to keep flash flood risk more minimal
today compared to the last couple of days. That said, localized
flooding remains possible, especially in the usual flood-prone and
low-lying areas. In addition to the heavy downpours, wet downbursts
will also be possible given the steep near-surface lapse rates,
especially along the sea breeze merger. Convection will exit to the
north and offshore during the evening hours with only spotty showers
shifting toward the Suwannee valley tonight.

Another day in the low/mid 90s across NE FL while cloud cover north
of the weakening frontal zone keeps high temps for portions of SE GA
in the mid/upper 80s. Before storms cool off temps, heat index
readings are expected to reach around 100-106 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday and Wednesday)...

Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary will remain near the Fl/GA state
line while a surface high extends down the eastern seaboard from
New England/Nova Scotia. Aloft, our region will be between mid to
upper level shortwave troughing along the MS river valley and
Bermuda ridging to the east over the Atlantic waters. A weak 850mb
low will be over northern AL with south to southwest flow over the
area. Some drier air (PWATS 1.6-1.8 inches) will shift inland while
higher moisture axis (PWATS closer to 2.00-2.25 inches) will reside
closer to the Atlantic coast. The south to southwest low level flow
will push the Gulf seabreeze well inland over NE FL and impede the
progress of the Atlantic seabreeze which will focus stronger T`storm
development along the stalled front near the state line and the
merging seabreezes closer to US-17 and I-95. Overall have 80-90
percent pops for widespread shower and T`storm development as the
lift along the front, diurnal heating, and high moisture combine.

High temperatures Tuesday will be near normal over SE GA with low
90s, and near to slightly above normal over NE FL with low to mid
90s inland to near 90 at the beaches. Light winds will be from the
southwest 5-10 mph south of the front over NE FL and from the east
northeast 5-10 mph over SE GA.

Wednesday, the mid/upper level shortwave trough will move east
over the OH and TN valleys. This will cause the 850 mb low to lift
into the central Appalachians and also weaken low level flow across
our area. This will allow the seabreezes to merge more inland
across NE FL with a focus for stronger T`storms closer to highway
301 and along the remnant frontal boundary near the FL/GA state
line with pops 80-90 percent.

High temperatures Wednesday will be near normal in the upper 80s
to low 90s over SE GA and along the coast and the low to mid 90s
over inland NE FL. Light winds will be from the north and east as
the high to the northeast wedges a bit further south.

A localized risk of flash flooding will remain during the period
due to the stalled frontal boundary, above normal moisture levels,
and slow storm motions, especially for poor drainage and urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)

High pressure will continue to extend south along the east coast
from near New England into the Carolinas during the period while a
weak frontal boundary remains draped east to west near the FL/GA
state line east to northeast into the Atlantic waters. A weak low
may form along this boundary to our east and slowly approach SE US
coast this weekend. With the approach of the weak low to the east
and high pressure extending down the east coast, winds will be from
the east northeast 10-15 mph along the coast and lighter 5-10 mph
inland. Due to the frontal boundary still across the area and above
normal moisture levels, will keep high pops 80-90 percent late each
afternoon this week and into this weekend. Strong T`storm development
will focus more towards I-75 and towards the Gulf coast as the east
northeast flow pushes the east coast seabreeze well inland. A more
localized flood risk will remain possible in urban and low lying
areas, especially further inland.

Temperatures will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the
week into the weekend east to northeast light onshore flow prevails
and T`storm coverage remains elevated due to the lingering front.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)

Widely scattered and light showers will continue to develop along a
stalled front through dawn but these showers are not likely to
result in flight restrictions. Scattered to broken ceilings are
possible between 1.0 and 1.5 kft and will lift to VFR after sunrise
and through the mid morning hours. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the mid afternoon and evening,
impacting all TAF sites along the I-95 corridor. Winds will shift
from light SE to E with the sea breeze early in the afternoon with
chaotic winds possible as convective outflows emerge. Mainly
diurnal convection today with activity exiting offshore and to the
north during the early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...

A stalled front will linger across the local coastal waters through
Monday with waves of showers and afternoon thunderstorms. The front
will gradually shift southward Tuesday into Wednesday with high
pressure north of the region and a coastal trough forming well off
of the Florida coast. This pattern will bring prevailing onshore
flow and elevated combined seas. The National Hurricane Center is
monitoring a couple areas of potential tropical cyclone develop
across the western Atlantic this week, one of those areas is along
the aforementioned trough . It appears a weak low pressure may
organize and shift westward as toward the coast this weekend.
Stakeholders should continue to monitor NHC forecasts through the
week.

Rip Currents...Breakers around 2-4 ft and sea breeze development
will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip currents each afternoon through
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  71  91  72 /  80  50  80  50
SSI  88  79  91  76 /  80  60  70  60
JAX  92  75  93  75 /  80  50  80  40
SGJ  92  76  93  76 /  70  50  80  40
GNV  94  74  95  74 /  70  30  90  30
OCF  94  75  94  75 /  70  30  90  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$