412
FXUS62 KJAX 250825
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

...WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...
...STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
...BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER FORECAST ON FRIDAY...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Overnight surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars)
centered directly over our area. Meanwhile, a cold front stretches
from the Upper Midwest southward through the southern Plains, with
this feature progressing southeastward. Aloft...zonal flow
prevails throughout the southern tier of the U.S. Clear skies
prevail across our region, with radiation fog beginning to
increase in coverage along the FL Big Bend and Nature Coasts, with
this fog beginning to push slowly eastward and encroach on the
Suwannee and Withlacoochee Rivers. Radiational cooling continues
at inland locations, where temperatures and dewpoints ranged from
the upper 30s to mid 40s as of 08Z. A light west-southwesterly
breeze was keeping temperatures at coastal locations in the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Radiation fog should expand in coverage across the Suwannee Valley
and north central FL through sunrise, with dense fog being more
likely along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor, where a Dense
Fog Advisory may be required during the early morning hours today.
Pockets of fog may develop across inland southeast GA and for
locations along and west of I-95, with areas of dense fog possibly
extending to the U.S. Highway 301 corridor through the mid-
morning hours. Fog will then dissipate during the mid to late
morning hours as high pressure remains in control of our weather
pattern. A dry air mass, full sunshine, and slowly rising heights
aloft will allow temperatures to rapidly climb to near 70 by the
noon hour at most locations, with highs this afternoon topping out
in the mid to upper 70s inland. A weak sea breeze will push inland
from the Atlantic coast this afternoon, with coastal temperatures
falling back to the upper 60s late this afternoon.

High pressure will remain centered over our area tonight, allowing
for another night of radiational cooling, followed by locally
dense fog formation for locations west of the I-95 corridor during
the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday. Low level
southwesterly flow should keep lows in the 50s across most of
inland southeast GA, but cooler values in the mid to upper 40s are
forecast beneath the surface ridge along the U.S.-301 and I-75
corridors, with coastal lows generally in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

A weak frontal boundary will move across the area late Tuesday
afternoon and through the evening hours. Not much is expected in
the way of shower activity as the front will be mostly dry, but a
stray light shower or two across the northern areas may be
possible. Lingering early morning fog, primarily along the I-75
corridor, will begin to lift an hour or two after sunrise. Daytime
highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s with ahead of the front,
warmer temps along NE FL with some locations getting into the
lower 80s. By Tuesday evening, overnight lows in the mid 50s and
some moisture advecting in from the Gulf thanks to southwesterly
flow will allow for fog development during the early morning hours
on Wednesday, with locally dense fog particularly along the far
inland locations. Wednesday will be another a dry day as the front
will be to the south of the area. Daytime highs in the upper 70s
with warmer temps along north central Florida. Overnight lows in
the upper 60s along inland SE GA and upper 50s for most of NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Another frontal boundary nears the SE CONUS Thanksgiving day, with
breezy southwesterly flow developing in the 15-20G30 mph range.
Shower activity will arrive ahead of the front during the
afternoon hours on Thanksgiving for locations in SE GA, with
activity moving near the the FL/GA border and into NE FL during
the overnight hours. Most of the lingering showers should clear
out to the coastal waters by Friday morning, with dry conditions
developing across the area lasting through the weekend. Daytime
temps on Thursday will be in the upper 70s for SE GA, with lower
80s across NE FL on Thursday as southwesterly will bring in warmer
temps over NE FL. Temperatures will begin to trend down after the
front`s passage, a return to cold temperatures similar to this
past weekend as a colder air air mass settles over the region
after the front`s passage. Some potential Frost over inland areas
on Saturday and Sunday morning, but confidence remains low in any
sub-freezing temps, but it remains a possibility for inland SE GA
and the Suwannee Valley by late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Periods of IFR visibilities will continue overnight at VQQ,
followed by periods of LIFR conditions during the predawn and
early morning hours. IFR visibilities are expected to develop at
GNV towards sunrise, with periods of LIFR conditions possible
through around 14Z. A period of MVFR visibilities will be possible
elsewhere during the early morning hours, with confidence high
enough to indicate these conditions at JAX and CRG at this time.
VFR conditions should then prevail at the regional terminals by
15Z as fog dissipates. Another round of fog will likely develop
after 06Z Tuesday. Light west-southwesterly surface winds
sustained around 5 knots or less will continue overnight at the
SSI and SGJ coastal terminals. West-southwesterly surface winds
sustained around 5 knots will develop at the inland terminals as
fog dissipates around 14Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will
develop at coastal locations around noon, with this boundary
progressing inland during the afternoon hours. Surface winds at
SGJ will shift to east-southeasterly at 5-10 knots by 18Z, with
south-southeasterly winds of 5-10 knots developing at SSI towards
20Z. Surface winds will shift to southeasterly at 5-10 knots at
CRG and JAX by 22Z. Surface winds will then diminish at the inland
terminals towards sunset, while a south-southwesterly breeze
around 5 knots develops at the coastal terminals on Monday
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

High pressure will remain situated near our local waters through
Tuesday morning. Light and prevailing offshore winds will keep
wave heights around 2 feet or less both near shore and offshore
through Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a weakening frontal boundary
will push across the southeastern states on Tuesday afternoon and
evening, with this feature then stalling over the Georgia waters
on Wednesday. Southwesterly winds will strengthen on Thanksgiving
Day ahead of a stronger cold front that will cross our area on
Thursday night. Speeds are expected to reach Caution levels of
15-20 knots by the afternoon and evening hours before winds shift
to northwesterly after midnight, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible as early as the predawn hours on Friday. Seas
will build to the 2-4 foot range from Wednesday night through
Thursday evening.

This frontal passage will likely be accompanied by showers and a
few thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong
northwesterly winds and building seas are forecast in the wake of
this frontal passage on Thursday night, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected across our local waters on Friday and Friday
evening, as winds surge to around 20 knots and seas build to the
3-5 foot range near shore and 4-6 feet offshore.

Rip Currents: Although a long period easterly ocean swell will
impact our local beaches through Tuesday, light winds and surf
heights of 1-2 feet should keep the overall risk low through
midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

With high pressure still over the region, near calm winds will
remain through this afternoon and evening. As light winds
remain, low daytime dispersions will again be expected this
afternoon for much of the area, with lower dispersions over the NE
FL. Dispersions begin to improve on Tuesday after the passage of
a frontal boundary. Southwesterly winds will begin to develop
during the overnight hours into Wednesday. MinRH values will begin
to tick upwards a bit after the front`s passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Daily record highs for Thursday November 28th at local climate sites...

JAX 85/1948
CRG 83/1985
GNV 87/1948
AMG 83/1990

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  53  76  54 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  71  50  76  60 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  76  49  80  59 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  74  52  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  77  47  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  77  46  79  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$