383
FXUS62 KJAX 071807
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
207 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(This afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon/evening...Forecast remains on track with Broken
line of strong to isolated severe storms to push across inland SE
GA and the Suwannee Valley this afternoon and into coastal SE GA
and the rest of NE FL during the early evening hours, before
moving off the Atlantic Coast into the offshore waters after
sunset this evening. Main threats continue to be damaging winds of
50-70 mph along the potential of isolated tornadoes. Slow
movement of the squall line will lead to pockets of heavy
rainfall, with most areas receiving 0.50-1.00 inches, and locally
higher amounts of 2-3 inches possible where heavier convection
occurs or trains over the same locations. Gradient SW winds ahead
of the squall line still expected to gust close to 40 mph and will
keep Wind Advisory in effect for the moment.

Rest of Tonight...Following the passage of the squall line, the
cold front will continue numerous showers along with low clouds
through the late evening and to around midnight time frame, before
rainfall ends during the early morning hours. Partial clearing of
skies will start to take place towards sunrise over SE GA and
inland NE FL, but still likely remain overcast across coastal NE
FL as temps fall into the 50s behind the cold frontal passage as
West to Northwest winds develop at 10-15G20-25 mph, helping it to
feel much cooler than the 1st week of April.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Cold front will be southeast of the area Tuesday morning, and
continue will continue to track away to the southeast Tuesday
afternoon. Skies will clear from the northwest to southeast through
the day, as high pressure builds from the northwest. Cool advection
on the backside of the front will result in below normal
temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Models are consistently depicting an area of low pressure to develop
on the front to the southeast of the area. This low is expected to
strengthen enough through the day Wednesday, to provide a gusty
onshore flow from the northeast near the coast. Could be enough
moisture and convergence for a few coastal showers with this
feature. With the flow from the northeast beginning Tuesday night,
temperatures will range from northwest to southeast across the area,
with lows in the mid 40s over inland SE GA, and mid to upper 50s
coastal NE FL. Due to the flow from the northeast, highs will range
through the 70s Wednesday, with coolest readings at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Area of low pressure to the southeast, is expected to move toward FL
Wednesday night, and into southern FL Thursday. This feature could
result in a few showers over area, especially near the coast. Lows
Wednesday night will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s inland,
to the upper 50s to lower 60s coast. Highs Thursday range from the
middle 70s coast, to the upper 70s to lower 80s inland. Lows
Thursday night mid to upper 50s, but closer to 60 along the coast.

A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday into Friday
night, bringing shower with chance for a few storms. Temperatures
Friday will depend on timing of the front. With the current timing,
highs will range from mid 70s inland SE GA to the lower 80s NE FL
coast.

High pressure will build from the west over the weekend, and will
become centered overhead on Monday. The weekend will be dry with
temperatures a little below seasonal levels. A dry day is forecast
for Monday as well, with temperatures above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

SW winds continue to increase ahead of the squall line, mainly
into the 15-20G25-30 knot range. Timing of squall line still on
track for the 23-00Z time frame at SSI/JAX/VQQ/GNV, then into
CRG/SGJ by 00-01Z time frame with gusty winds and will keep the
potential wind gust to 25G35 knots with this feature, which could
possibly stronger to 40-45 knots if strong to severe storms impact
any local TAF. Post squall line shower activity will continue in
the 02-06Z time frame along with IFR/MVFR CIGS that will continue
in the 06-12Z time frame as rainfall exits the region. Low clouds
begin to become SCT around sunrise and expect VFR conds to develop
in the 12-15Z time frame on Tuesday as W-NW winds continue around
10 knots or so.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue in SW flow ahead of
approaching squall line through this evening, then slowly fade
during the overnight hours as they become West to Northwest and
decrease to 15 to 20 knots and expect SCEC headlines to continue
into early Tuesday as winds continue to slowly weaken and become N
to NE 10-15 knots as high pressure builds north of the region. Low
pressure development is expected to the NW of the Bahamas into
Wed/Thu which will lead to an increase in Northeast winds in the
local waters, with SCEC or SCA level winds close to 20 knots and
seas building into the 5-8 ft range. Northeast winds will relax
Thursday Night as the low pressure pushes out into the Western
Atlantic. Longer range models are still on track with next cold
frontal passage sometime on Friday with another shift to offshore
winds likely at SCEC/15-20 knot levels that will linger into
Saturday before weakening once again.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Risk of rip currents in the offshore
flow on Tuesday, with a shift to Moderate to High Risk as onshore
flow develops and increases around low pressure system near the
Bahamas. Surf/breakers 2-3 ft today dropping into the 1-2 ft range
on Tuesday before increasing to 4-6 ft by Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Record High Temperatures:

Monday, April 7th:
KJAX: 92/1967
KCRG: 91/2006
KAMG: 90/1999
KGNV: 90/2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  71  46  73 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  56  70  57  71 / 100   0   0   0
JAX  55  73  53  75 / 100   0   0  10
SGJ  58  72  59  74 /  90  10  10  20
GNV  55  74  51  78 /  90   0   0  10
OCF  57  75  54  79 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$