547
FXUS62 KJAX 202351
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
751 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Direct Impacts from Tropical Depression #2 Not Expected

- Lesser storm coverage is expected Tuesday and Wednesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today, Possible High Risk Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Tuesday into Tuesday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

- Seasonably Hot Summer Conditions

TD#2 is over the Gulf this evening, and still on the forecast
track of a general northwest movement today, but very slow at
about 3 to 5 mph. A tropical-like airmass over the region though
there is some dry air in the mid levels that is rotating around
TD#2 that is located in the eastern Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Conditions Overall Tuesday and Wednesday

Tropical Depression 2 (TD2) will continue to slowly drift
west/northwest away from the region Tuesday and Wednesday, as high
pressure ridging in the low levels builds across the Florida
Peninsula once again. A modest pressure gradient will persist
between the two features during the short term but especially
Tuesday, with a south to southeasterly flow around 10-20mph with
gusts up to near 30 mph at times.

Guidance is rather split on the extent of diurnal convection on
Tuesday, as guidance like the GFS is more aggressive with a dry
slot aloft cycling into the area, in addition to more
subsidence being introduced as TD2 pulls away and ridging moves
overhead. Have essentially tried to "meet in the middle" with
respect to PoPs, with a general 30-40% chance of showers and
storms from well west of the I-95 corridor and around 15-30%
closer to the coast as the Atlantic sea breeze should be enough
for at least some isolated to widely scattered convection to
develop. Wednesday, overall better agreement that the primary
chances for rain will be over far inland GA and parts of the
Upper Suwannee Valley.

Southerly flow and some subsidence will allow temps to rise a few
degrees above normal each day once again, with mostly mid 90s
expected except some lower 90s for far western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, Especially Friday &
into the Weekend
- Potential Heat Advisory Conditions Late Week & Weekend

A frontal boundary will drop southward towards southeast GA
Wednesday Night and into Thursday before becoming nearly stationary
for the next several days thereafter. This will rather quickly bring
widespread higher moisture back into the area, especially Friday and
into next weekend. This will therefore increase chances for showers
and thunderstorms from south to north accordingly for the end of
work week and into the upcoming weekend. As the flow direction
becomes more southwest to westerly, temperatures are expected to
rise a bit above climo. With the increase in moisture, this could
allow for conditions to reach near heat advisory criteria late week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms have all but run their course for the day
over TAF sites with some lingering convection moving over inland
areas and dispersing later tonight. VFR conditions will prevail
through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, with initially
mild winds building in from out of the south by around 14z with a
potential for convection to return by around 19z-21z, near the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...


Breezy southerly winds continue across the waters as a tropical
depression in the Gulf strengthens into a Tropical Storm later today
or tonight. The pressure gradient between the tropical system and
the Bermuda high will lead to a long duration of breezy south winds
to Exercise Caution level today and tonight. There`s potential for
south winds to increase to near Small Craft Advisory levels, or
around 20 knots, by Tuesday or Tuesday night. The prolonged south
winds will elevate seas up to 5 or possibly 6 feet through Tuesday.
For the second half of the week, winds will decrease in strength as
the tropical system moves farther west along the northern Gulf
coast. While winds decrease, a shift to offshore flow will develop
as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest by the end of the
week and then stalls just north of the waters this weekend. Isolated
strong thunderstorms with gusty winds may impact the area waters
later this afternoon and again on Tuesday, mainly within 20 nm of
the coast.

Rip Currents:

Breezy longshore flow will keep breakers around 2-3 feet and result
in a solid Moderate Risk of rip currents this afternoon as the sea
breeze pushes onshore. Increasing surf Tuesday will elevate breakers
to near 3-4 feet and may be necessary to have High Risk for rip
currents for Southeast GA and Northeast FL beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Through Midweek Inland

Ample moisture associated with Tropical Depression Two well to our
west will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, with the highest chances being between about
3 pm and 7 pm. Outside of any showers/storms, a fairly breezy
southerly flow will be expected, which will shift more southeasterly
later this evening as a sea breeze tries to push inland. Dispersions
will therefore be in the good range away from the coast today and
through the next several days as well, with areas of high
dispersions possible - especially between about I-75 and HWY 301 in
north FL, and inland north of I-10 in GA. No significant concerns
overnight tonight before chances for showers and storms are expected
to be overall lower on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as well as a
breezy flow continues. A frontal boundary drops southward Wednesday
Night and Thursday, returning elevated chances for showers and
t`storms for many.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not
expected for the next several nights. Gusty and erratic winds will
be possible in and near thunderstorms, with occasional outflow
boundaries capable of producing sudden wind shifts well away from
ongoing convection. No significant impacts expected from TD2.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  93  75  94 /  30  40  10  10
SSI  81  93  81  94 /  10  20  10  10
JAX  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  78  94  77  95 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  76  93  75  94 /  10  40   0  10
OCF  76  93  75  94 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$