283
FXUS62 KJAX 220626
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
226 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A mid/upper level trough extends from NC to nrn AL to the coastal
TX area with a weak sfc front located from SC to north central GA
to southern LA and TX. Over our area, the mean flow through 500
mb is weak west to southwest, and PWATs per satellite and model
guidance is about 2.2 inches or about the 90th percentile. Models
show the weak front drifting southward Today, in tandem with the
mid/upper trough. The sfc front, sea breezes, and daytime heating
will be easily able to generate numerous showers and storms during
the daytime, peaking in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Widespread convection will be possible across portions of southeast
GA later today, where better low level forcing and enhanced moisture
is located. In all areas, locally heavy rainfall and potential
localized flooding are the main concerns. More specifically, the
main concern area for heavy rainfall is the coastal southeast GA
to near the Altamaha River Basin, but potential extends as far as
south as Waycross. At this time, the threat for a flood watch is
too marginal and localized. The Max temps will be held down by
clouds and precip with upper 80s to lower 90s for highs.

Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and storms expected to be
ongoing in the evening, with the concentration over southeast GA
near and north of Waycross. Precip should slowly fade overnight,
but still remain somewhat active, with one area of precip
redeveloping toward sunrise across the I-75 corridor in northeast
FL as some convection comes ashore and moves toward Marion,
Alachua, and Gilchrist counties. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Cold front over SE GA on Saturday will gradually weaken and trek
southward into NE FL on Sunday. West-southwest steering flow and
deep tropical airmass (PWATs 2-2.3 in) situated over the region
will support waves of numerous to widespread showers and storms
capable of producing heavy downpours. With a moist airmass and
slow storm motions, localized flooding will be possible this
weekend especially where storms train and in urban and low lying
areas. WPC has a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall across SE GA
and NE FL for the weekend. Stronger storms will be mainly focused
along the frontal boundary, as well as the sea breeze and outflow
interactions. WSW flow will shift the Gulf sea breeze well inland
each day and keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the coast.
Highs will range from the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows
will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

On Monday, a mid-upper trough over the Great Lakes amplifies and
digs southward pushing a dry cold front into SE GA. Drier air
begins to filter in from the northwest Monday afternoon in the
wake of front lower rain chances over inland SE GA. The cold front
passes through the area and into central FL on Tuesday. The
unseasonably dry air settles over the area for Tuesday potentially
lowering PWATs to near 1 inch in SE GA. This will limit the best
chances for showers and storms to NE FL. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms prevail through Thursday with the
lingering drier air and high pressure remaining to the north.
Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Mainly VFR cigs with debris clouds and can`t rule out some patchy
ground fog from the rainfall from Thursday. High rainfall chances
expected today so have TEMPO groups for the afternoon showers and
storms. Prevailing SHRA and VCTS for the aftn for all the TAFs.
Given the amount of moisture available, vsby in the heavy showers
and storms could certainly get to IFR vsby but may hold off on
including that for the time being. For late tonight, some patchy
fog and localized low clouds are possible after about 03z, mainly
from JAX to SSI.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Winds remain fairly light with weak pres gradient place with a
weak cool front over parts of GA and SC. Seas are the main story
with residual swells from Hurricane Erin. The models continue to
over-forecast the swell by 1-2 ft, possibly higher offshore
waters, so have attempted to modify model output lower. Still
have small craft exercise caution due to the combined seas state
of about 4-6 ft today, but these swells should continue to subside
over the next 2-3 days. Otherwise, shower and thunderstorm activity
may affect the area waters and at times through the weekend, with
most of the activity in the afternoon and late in the night.

Rip Currents: While the surf is not as high are prior days, the
strong long period swells and the chewed up beaches point to a
high rip current risk today. We extended the high risk for
northeast FL into Saturday based on recent guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  71 /  90  60  90  40
SSI  88  75  86  74 /  80  70  90  60
JAX  90  74  89  74 /  80  60  90  40
SGJ  91  74  89  75 /  80  70  90  50
GNV  90  74  89  74 /  80  50  80  40
OCF  88  74  88  75 /  80  50  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.

&&

$$