847
FXUS62 KJAX 301621
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1221 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Continued hot and humid conditions this afternoon, along with
lower rainfall chances as high pressure ridging aloft builds in
from the West and PWATs have fallen below 2 inches. These
conditions will lead to a slower start to the Gulf coast sea
breeze in the Southwest steering flow which will start to develop
scattered showers and storms over inland areas by the early-mid
afternoon hours which will slowly track towards the Northeast
around 10 mph and reach the East Coast sea breeze along the
I-95/US-17 corridors by the late afternoon/early evening hours
with some strong storms possible with gusty winds to 40-60 mph
along with locally heavy rainfall/flooding threat due to the slow
storm movement. This activity should push offshore around sunset
with mainly dry and humid conditions for the overnight hours,
before the Southwest flow helps to develop isolated showers and
storms along the FL Big Bend/NE Gulf which may track into inland
NE FL around sunrise. Temps will remain at above normal levels
this afternoon with the late start to convection with widespread
highs into the mid/upper 90s inland and lower 90s at the Atlantic
Beaches, with peak heat indices around 110F and current heat
advisory in place looks good. Low temps only fall into the
mid/upper 70s inland tonight, and around 80F along the Atlantic
Coastal areas. Airmass remains too warm and relatively mixed for
any significant fog late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

High pressure will be centered to the southeast Thursday, with the
ridge extending across south FL. A trough of low pressure will
located across the southeastern US Thursday. The prevailing low
level flow will be from the southwest between these two features.
While weak ridging over the region will help to suppress convection,
the combination of diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions will
keep isolated to scattered storms in the forecast. There could be an
increase in convection near the east coast during the afternoon, as
the Gulf sea breeze meets up with the east coast sea breeze near the
I95 corridor. Temperatures will continue above seasonal averages.
Due to Gulf sea breeze, highs will range from the mid 90s inland, to
mid to upper 90s east.

A heat advisory has been issued for Thursday, due to combination of
hot temperatures and high humidity.

The high center will move further away to the southeast Friday, as
the trough digs along the southeastern US coast. Lows in the mid 70s
will be common, except upper 70s coast.

The trough will remain along the southeastern US coast, extending
across SE GA. Weak lows may form in this trough Friday.
Precipitation chances will begin to increase on Friday as
convergence associated with troughing works along with diurnal
heating and increasing moisture. Convective activity will diminish
with loss of heating Friday night. Highs Friday in the mid to upper
90s expected with lows Friday night in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The trough axis will sink to near the GA/FL line on Saturday. The
chance for storms, some possible strong to severe, will increase
with the boundary overhead. With the expected precipitation and
cloud coverage, temperatures will be a little lower, with highs in
the lower to mid 90s.

Showers with isolated storms may linger into Saturday night, due to
the trough, with lows in the middle 70s.

On Sunday and Monday, the trough will lay out across northern FL,
with high pressure building to the northwest. Precipitation chances
will remain on the high side, with potential for strong to severe
storms continuing. With the boundary across FL, cooler air will move
south into SE GA, so highs will range from the mid to upper 80s over
SE GA, to the lower 90s over NE FL. With the trough in place,
convective chances lingering into the overnights can not be ruled
out. Lows in the mid 70s will be common Sunday night and Monday
night.

The trough weakens Tuesday into Wednesday, as high pressure builds
toward the east. While precipitation chances will remain above
normal, the potential will be lower than over the weekend.
Temperatures will be near to a little above average.

The flow is not very strong this period, so storms which form will
likely move fairly slow, leading to potential for heavy rainfall
and localized flooding, especially Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Forecast on track for mostly VFR conds through the period. SCT to
BKN cumulus development in the 4000-5000 ft range still on track
at all TAF sites, with PROB30 groups still needed for all NE FL
TAF sites in the 17-21Z time frame at GNV, and in the 19-23Z time
frame for the remainder of the NE FL TAF sites for MVFR Conds in
gusty TSRA activity as the Gulf Coast sea breeze meets with the
East Coast sea breeze later this afternoon, returning to VFR conds
after sunset tonight and will only include some patchy fog at VQQ
due to the low fog chances in this pattern. Will leave out PROB30
groups at SSI as rainfall chances remain too low for TSRA chances
through the evening hours. General SW flow at 6-8 knots today,
except for SE winds 8-10 knots at the Coastal TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A trough of low pressure near the Georgia waters will lift
northward today as high pressure ridging builds back into the
region. This regime will then change little through at least
Friday, which will result in a light offshore wind at night and a
developing sea breeze during the daytime each day. A frontal
boundary will approach the local waters from the north late
Friday, with a surge of South to Southwest winds close to Small
Craft Advisory levels Friday Night. This frontal boundary will
stall just north of the Georgia waters for the weekend, resulting
in an active weather pattern and higher chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate rip current risk through the end of
the week with surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites...

                     WED 7/30   THU 7/31   FRI 8/1

Jacksonville, FL     102/2010   102/1999   102/1999
Gainesville, FL      100/1896   100/1892   100/1896
Craig Airport, FL    101/2010   101/1999   101/1999
Alma, GA (AMG)       101/1961   102/1999   100/1999

Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites...

                     WED 7/30   THU 7/31   FRI 8/1

Jacksonville, FL     81/1872    78/1941    82/1873
Gainesville, FL      78/2010    77/2011    77/1893
Craig Airport, FL    80/2010    79/2011    79/1999
Alma, GA (AMG)       77/1999    77/1999    77/1999

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  97  76  97 /  30  20  10  40
SSI  80  95  80  96 /  20  20  10  20
JAX  77  98  77  99 /  20  30  10  30
SGJ  78  95  77  96 /  30  20   0  20
GNV  76  96  75  96 /  20  20   0  30
OCF  76  95  76  95 /  20  30   0  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-
     236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$