382
FXUS62 KJAX 141119
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
619 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increasing Fog potential into the Weekend. Patchy to Areas of
  Fog (visibility < 1) through 8 AM this Morning

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Next Week. Severe to
  Extreme Drought over Inland Southeast GA and Inland North FL

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Northeast FL Beaches Today

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1227 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

This morning, patchy fog is likely over inland northeast Florida,
it will begin to clear up after sunrise. Dry and warm conditions
will continue today, with highs in the mid 70s inland and lower
70s near the Atlantic coast due to the onshore breeze. Tonight,
another round of patchy fog is possible across most of inland
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia with low temperatures in
the 40s inland and 50s near the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1227 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Low level ridging will build from the north and settle overhead
through the weekend. Warming temperatures beneath the lower ridge
and zonal flow aloft will initiate a weak afternoon sea breeze
Saturday. Moisture pushing in from the Atlantic and clear skies each
night will provide an increased potential for patchy to areas of
morning fog development, which may become dense in spots. Fog may
linger a bit longer Saturday morning given the light boundary-layer
flow, while increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a weak frontal
boundary should mix/lift fog out sooner Sunday morning. The
aforementioned front may stall to the north Sunday evening/night but
if it can make it through it will pass as a dry front.

Temperatures will run 4-7 degrees above normal through the weekend
with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Increasing dewpoints will
warm overnight lows from the 40s and low 50s Saturday morning to
the upper 40s and mid 50s by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1227 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure will generally remain anchored across the region
through at least mid week before a "backdoor" front pushes across
the waters as stronger high pressure moves across the Great Lakes
and toward the eastern seaboard. Most medium-range guidance does
keep conditions rain-free with the frontal passage but there is a
silent (<10%) chance of coastal showers Wednesday night and
Thursday. Above normal warmth will continue through the week with
chances for morning fog being higher during the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

After the fog clears this morning, VFR conditions expected with
another round of fog late Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Northwesterly winds over the local waters ahead of a frontal
boundary passage Tonight. Winds shift to become northeasterly on
Friday after the frontal passage and high pressure building into the
area. By Saturday winds shift to become northwesterly as the high
pressure pushes overhead. By the later part of the upcoming weekend,
the high pressure will shift southward which will allow for breezy
southerly-southwesterly winds to develop over the local waters ahead
of the next dry frontal passage that is expected on Sunday night or
early Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Region of high pressure will settle over the area through most of
the weekend before a weak, dry cold front approaches Sunday. Low
humidity continues across inland areas today and Saturday. Warming
temperatures will push moisture inland with the sea breeze, helping
moisten humidity levels gradually over the weekend despite the weak
incoming front. Without a widespread wetting rain event in sight,
severe to extreme drought conditions persist and are likely to
expand.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  41  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  50  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  73  54  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  77  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$