Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
860 FXUS62 KJAX 231605 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1205 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Daily risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms during the. Hazards: Wind Gusts 40-60 mph, Localized downpours. Concern Area: North of I-10 and across inland Southeast Georgia && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms south of I-10 this afternoon - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this evening for SE GA. Drier airmass with PWATs around 1.5 inches continues to push southward into SE GA and close to the FL/GA border late this morning while deeper moisture will be pooled south of I-10 this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop within and along the edge of the moisture axis through the afternoon. Some warming air aloft will keep instability in check this afternoon across NE FL but a few stronger storms, capable of strong gusts, may develop along the pinned Atlantic sea breeze in St Johns and Flagler counties this afternoon. Some training may occur but generally southwesterly storm motion of around 10-15 mph should limit the potential for substantial flooding. Though the dry air will limit much convection throughout the afternoon north of I-10, model ensemble guidance indicates leftover moisture from an ongoing MCS over the lower Mississippi river valley may be enveloped by the westerly flow aloft and transported into SE GA early this evening. This will give a late day window for isolated convection to develop despite the lower level dryness. The interplay between the increase instability and dry air may support strong to severe microburst activity (winds 40-60 mph) with isolated convection in the SE GA vicinity this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a "Marginal Risk" of severe storms north of I-10 given this potential wind threat this evening. Activity will wane by midnight with dry conditions through the early morning hours Monday. Temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 90s across SE GA this afternoon but drier air will keep heat index in the 100-104F range. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower in NE FL, but low level moisture in the air will make it feel like 103-107F this afternoon. Low temps tonight still expected in the lower/middle 70s inland, and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increase in showers and storms with return of moisture, higher chances heading into midweek. Southwesterly flow will persist through the beginning of the week, south of the stalled frontal boundary to the north and ridging extending over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula from out of the east, bringing increased atmospheric moisture before midweek with PWAT values rising to over 2 inches, resulting in higher chances for numerous showers and storms over southeast Georgia on Monday and then expanding to include portions of northeast Florida by Tuesday as rising PWATs spread southward. Daytime high temperatures will drop down from out of the mid to upper 90s on Monday down into the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday, with overnight low temperatures remaining fairly consistently in the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s along the coastline. Heat index values will rise to be over 100 during this period but are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Active weather continues past midweek of the upcoming week Pattern for diurnal convection with a potential for the development of stronger storms will continue through the extended period into Saturday as southwesterly flow persists between the receding frontal boundary to the north and high pressure ridging extending over the Florida peninsula from out of the east. Temperatures will trend slightly above average through the end of the week and into the weekend with daily high temperatures reaching into the lower 90s. Heat index values will rise to be over 100 during this period but are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria each day. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... VFR across NE FL terminals with deeper moisture sliding south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, so greatest rainfall chances will be at GNV/SGJ and have continued VCTS with PROB30 of TSRA activity mainly in the 18-22Z time frame. Light W-SW winds will continue through this afternoon except for a SE sea breeze close to 10 knots at coastal terminals. Following afternoon/early evening convection, should become VFR overnight with lingering mid/high clouds and the typical MVFR fog chances at VQQ from 07-11Z. Any rainfall chances for Monday will likely occur after the end of the current TAF period, so will leave out for now. && .MARINE... A stalled front near the Georgia coastal waters will linger through Monday before dissolving through the week. Main maritime concern will be increasing potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day during the upcoming week. The steering winds will generally move thunderstorms from the shoreline toward the offshore waters during the evening hours. Outside of thunderstorm influences, low to calm seas and light offshore winds persist. Rip Currents: Surf/breakers will remain 1 to 2 feet early this week in the mainly offshore flow with overall low rip current risk, but brief periods of moderate risk will exist during the afternoon hours as local onshore sea breeze develops each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Locally High Dispersion Monday For Se Ga West to southwesterly flow continues today and into midweek across most locations, with east to southeast winds across coastal locations during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Drier air will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather during the afternoon hours across southeast Georgia today, with showers and storms possible during the late afternoon to early hours, while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue across northeast FL. Moisture levels begin to increase next week, with chances of showers and storms increasing through the week. Hotter temperatures Today and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, with locally high dispersion Monday afternoon. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 96 73 94 / 10 40 20 70 SSI 78 95 77 91 / 10 50 30 70 JAX 75 95 73 92 / 10 50 50 80 SGJ 75 95 75 92 / 10 20 20 70 GNV 73 94 73 91 / 10 20 20 70 OCF 72 94 74 91 / 10 20 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$