217
FXUS62 KJAX 281239
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
839 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues Through Mid-Week.
  Near Record High Temperatures Forecast through Wednesday. Heat
  Advisories in Effect Area-Wide Today, with Heat Indices up to
  112 expected. Extreme Heat Watch Possible for Portions of Our
  Area on Wednesday.

- Only Isolated Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening, mainly
  south of I-10. Briefly Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning Strikes
  & Heavy Downpours Possible within Stronger Storms

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are Possible on Wednesday
  Afternoon and Evening Area-Wide. Damaging Wind Gusts, Isolated
  Tornadoes, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Localized Flooding
  Due to Heavy Downpours are Possible.

- Daily Rounds of Widespread Showers and Thunderstorms, with
  Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Each Afternoon and
  Evening from Thursday through Monday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Very Hot and Humid, Heat Advisory area-wide, Heat Indices
  108-112F.

- Isolated afternoon/evening storms, mainly south of I-10.

Very hot and humid weather pattern continues today, as slightly
drier air mass aloft with PWATs of 1.6 to 1.9 inches will
support only isolated to scattered storm activity this
afternoon/evening. Max temps into the upper 90s over inland
areas, with a few near 100F readings expected from the I-10
corridor northward across inland SE GA, generally middle 90s
expected along the Atlantic Coast as the West to Southwest
steering flow will only allow the East Coast sea breeze to push
inland to the I-95 corridor this afternoon. These well above
normal temps and low level humidity will produce another
afternoon with peak heat indices in the 108-112F range and Heat
Advisory headlines are already posted from 11am-8pm. A few peak
heat indices around 113F will be possible along the I-95
corridor from Brunswick to JAX metro area, but not enough
confidence to issue Extreme Heat Warning at this time due to
some lingering high clouds today that could remove a few degrees
for expected Max Temps. The W- SW flow off the NE Gulf will
inject enough moisture across NE FL, mostly south of the I-10
corridor, to support scattered afternoon and/or evening storms
along both the Gulf and East coast sea breeze fronts and a few
strong storms with gusty winds to 40-50 mph and heavy rainfall
possible, but the warmer temps in the mid levels will keep the
overall severe threat fairly low. Only isolated storms possible
across SE GA, as sea breeze remains pinned to the Atlantic Coast
there. Any convection this evening across NE FL should end
shortly after sunset, with fair skies and very humid conditions
with above normal temps as SW winds remain elevated at 5-10 mph
and low temps will only fall into the upper 70s inland and lower
80s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with strong to severe
  storms possible.

- Extreme Heat Watch may be needed Wednesday.

A frontal boundary will extend across area through this period.
The boundary will be over SE GA Wednesday, and closer to the
GA/FL line Thursday. The combination of ample moisture, and
frontal convergence will lead to above average convective
coverage. On Thursday, with the front closer to the GA/FL line,
drier air to its north will result in lower chances over
interior SE GA.

Temperatures will continue above seasonal levels this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
which may become strong to severe.

The frontal boundary will wave north and south over area, but
will  mainly linger over southern GA this period. Due to ample
moisture, and frontal convergence above average precipitation
chances forecast. A wave will move east along the boundary
Saturday night into Sunday, further enhancing convective
coverage.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday, then trend near to a
little below for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 18Z through around 03Z Wednesday, with confidence in
potential impacts now too low to indicate anything other than
vicinity showers at the northeast FL terminals, with dry weather
expected through the TAF period at SSI. Depending on forecast
trends, vicinity thunderstorm coverage could be added at a few
of the northeast FL terminals during the 18Z TAF cycle. Westerly
surface winds will become sustained at 5-10 knots at the
regional terminals by 14Z. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze
boundaries will develop during the early afternoon hours and
will progress inland this afternoon, shifting surface winds to
southeasterly at 10-15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals by 18Z, while the Gulf sea breeze shifts surface winds
to southwesterly around 10 knots at GNV towards 21Z. South to
southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots
at the regional terminals during the evening and overnight
hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Prevailing southwesterly winds are forecast Today, with the
afternoon sea breeze potentially triggering isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms through this evening, mainly for the
northeast Florida waters. Another frontal boundary will sink
into the Deep South late this week, with this feature becoming
stationary during the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible well in advance of this front on Wednesday
afternoon and evening across our local waters. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will continue across the northeast
Florida waters on Thursday and Friday, with less coverage
currently forecast for the Georgia waters. Waves of showers and
thunderstorms will then overspread all of our local waters
during the upcoming weekend. Outside of expected thunderstorm
activity, southwesterly winds will prevail and will strengthen
ahead of the approaching front beginning towards midweek, with
Caution conditions likely through the upcoming weekend and
periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Rip Currents: Low to marginal moderate risk of rip currents is
expected today and Wednesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA
beaches with surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Heat Indices in the advisory range today.

- Extreme Heat Watch may be needed on Wednesday.

- Patchy to areas of high daytime dispersions this week.

A frontal zone will be over or near the region through the week,
and into the weekend, producing above average chances for
showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Sunday.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected
during the next several mornings. Afternoon heat indices in
the advisory range today. Extreme heat watch is possible on
Wednesday. Daily thunderstorm chances increase beginning mid
week. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near
storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum
temperatures at our designated climate sites on Tuesday and
Wednesday:

July 28:
KJAX: 104/1872   80/1885
KGNV: 100/2025   77/2014
KAMG: 100/2006   78/2014
KCRG: 100/2025   80/2014

July 29:
KJAX: 101/2025   80/1877
KGNV: 100/2025   79/2025
KAMG: 99/2025    77/2017
KCRG: 101/2016   79/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  78  98  74 /   0  10  40  30
SSI  96  80 100  79 /  10  10  60  40
JAX  99  79  99  76 /  20   0  60  60
SGJ  95  78  98  77 /  20  10  30  50
GNV  96  78  96  77 /  20   0  30  70
OCF  95  77  94  79 /  20  10  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$