626
FXUS62 KJAX 241800
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T`STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Variable winds have trended northeast to easterly along the coast
to I-95 as a weak frontal boundary was temporarily a backdoor cool
front with northeasterly winds moving onshore the coast earlier
today as weak high pressure builds to northwest this afternoon.
With mostly sunny skies, highs will continue to rise from current
85-90 readings to the low 90s along I-95 and mid 90s further inland
with a few locations up to the upper 90s west of US-441/I-75.

South of the frontal boundary, there will be sufficient increase in
moisture levels up to 1.50-1.75 inches of Precipitable Water that
will support T`storm development as the Atalntic seabreeze interacts
with river and lake breezes over the southern St Johns river basin.
Thunderstorms with excessive lightning, gustsy winds around 40 mph
and heavy downpours will be the main hazards and occur mainly south
and east of a Ocala to St Augustine line. Heavy downpours may
produce rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour yielding locally high
rainfall totals in a few locations.

Tonight, the Atlantic seabreeze will shift west past I-75 early
this evening with a few showers and storms just near to just south
of Gainesville ending before midnight. WInds will turn southeasterly
and diminish under 5 mph inland and 5-10 mph at the coast. A
weakening MCS will push across SE AL into SW GA after midnight,
but fade before reaching our SE GA counties. Skies will stay
mostly clear overnight with high clouds entering the picture
late. Some patchy fog will form inland in the predawn hours. Lows
will be in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Sun & Sun Night...Isolated strong to pulse severe thunderstorm
potential continues as broad surface low forms along the front
draped across south GA late Sunday afternoon & evening while
greater coverage of sea breeze showers and storms develops across
NE FL due to increased moisture south of the front compared to
recent days. Mean layer 1000-700 mb SSW steering flow raises
precipitable water above 1.6" to near 2" into the afternoon and
evening, well above climo (1.3 inches) and the southerly flow of
only 5-10 kts will enable both Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast sea
breezes to press inland through the day. Plan for showers and
isoalted storms mid to late afternoon along the sea breezes, then
more scattered to numerous coverage across SE GA and the eastern
tier of NE FL (near and east of Highway 301) to the Atlantic coast
into the evening as the low crosses SE GA and sea breeze merger
convection drifts back to east under the SW steering flow.

The main weather hazards tomorrow will be locally heavy rainfall
where cell mergers occur due to heavy precip loading with weak
storm motion and above normal PWAT. A few stronger storms could
produce localized gusty winds of 40-60 mph under the stronger
storm cores but severe storm coverage limited given marginal
0-6 km bulk shear (25-30 kts) and mid level lapse rates in the
4-6 degC/km range. Storms will fade in coverage and intensity
through midnight, trailed by mostly dry conditions and patchy
inland fog early Monday morning where recent heavy rainfall
occurred. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has mus

Mon & Mon Night...Another day of elevated rain chances due to
several low level convergent boundaries and elevated moisture
content despite a building mid/upper level ridge aloft. In the
lower levels, the frontal zone lingers across the area with sea
breezes expected to once again develop each afternoon and press
inland. These features combined with diurnal instability will
trigger scattered showers and storms into the afternoon, with
increasing precipitation chances and coverage expected across
SE GA late Mon afternoon into the evening with the approach of
a backdoor front from the NE as a surface ridge strengthens NE
of the region. The combination of these low level boundaries,
elevated moisture and weak steering flow under the upper ridge
continue to support locally heavy rainfall and wet downburst
potential. Precipitation will tapper off inland Mon night, but
a few coastal showers and isolated storms may occur through
Monday night as low level easterly flow develops near and north
of the backdoor front.

Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 90s inland
to upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Tue - Thu...Daily mainly afternoon and evening sea breeze showers
and thunderstorms are expected under weak SSW steering flow and
elevated moisture with high pressure across south Florida and
frontal boundaries just north of the region. Aloft, the upper
ridge lingers Tue then begins to flatten mid week with passing
short wave troughs aloft enhancing diurnally driven convection.
With this pattern, late morning and early afternoon showers and
storms typically approach the I-75 corridor, with precipitation
expanding in coverage and intensity as it tracks eastward into the
afternoon. Sea breeze and boundary mergers concentrate toward the
St. Johns River Basin and Atlantic coast in the late afternoon
and early evening where the higher coverage of daily showers and
storms focus. There will be a low chance of isolated strong to
pulse severe storms with wet downbursts possible. Above normal
temperatures continue with daily heat index values nearing 100
across NE FL and toward the Atlantic coast.

Fri - Sat...Extended models show a deeper long wave trough pushing
a broken pre-frontal line of storms across our area as early as
Friday and as late as Saturday. The best chance of strong to
severe storms with this system will focus across SE GA Friday
afternoon and evening where stronger jet dynamics occur. Drier air
infiltrates southward this weekend trailing the frontal passage
with lower rain chances and a cool down with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions expected this afternoon with isolated to scattered
Thunderstorms developing mainly south of the TAF sites, but may
develop close enough to GNV to warrant VCTS after 22Z through 00Z.
Winds will be easterly at the coastal and duval TAF sites to
around 10 knots behind seabreeze passage with southwest winds 5-8
knots at GNV turning southeast later this afternoon as seabreeze
pushes in from the east. SOme patchy fog may bring tempo
restrictions for MVFR/IFR fog at VQQ and GNV after 08Z with light
southerly winds near calm inland and 5-8 knots at the coast.

Sunday, light southerly winds and cumulus cloud decks around 3.0
to 4.0 kft will develop late morning into midday to end the
period. More coverage of thunderstorms, a few strong to severe,
expected Sunday afternoon as higher moisture returns to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

High pressure to the northwest will build more to the north through
the rest of the weekend as a weak frontal boundary remains just north
of the waters resulting in a weak flow pattern and afternoon sea
breeze development today and Sunday. Moist south winds will develop
early next week and slowly increase daily thunderstorm chances.

Additionally, successive weak troughs of low pressure will track
from the Gulf and into the Atlantic through the upcoming week. These
disturbances will increase storm chances and wind speeds as they pass.
A cold front will approach from the northwest toward the end of the
week and may push through the waters next weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of Rip Currents this weekend at all
area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

A front across south Georgia combined with daily sea breezes and
increased moisture will bring greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the area Sunday and Monday. Storm coverage
will be the greatest in the afternoon and evening. High daytime
dispersion is expected Sunday across SE GA and then across NE FL
Monday where transport winds are stronger just south of the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  92  69  91 /   0  30  20  40
SSI  74  87  73  90 /   0  30  20  40
JAX  70  93  71  94 /   0  30  20  40
SGJ  71  90  72  92 /  10  40  20  40
GNV  68  95  69  95 /  10  50  10  50
OCF  68  94  70  94 /  10  60  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$