610
FXUS62 KJAX 250120
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
820 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Clear skies will continue for the evening hours. Fog is expected
to begin advecting off Gulf around midnight, then spread and
thicken, especially along the I75 corridor. There is a potential
for dense fog along and around I75 near sunrise Monday, which may
require an advisory.

Lows Tonight will range from the lower 40s inland to around 50 along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Monday...High pressure ridge overhead in the morning slides
slightly southward through the afternoon and steering flow becomes
light West to Southwest and temps will surge to above normal
values and into the mid/upper 70s under Mostly Sunny skies.

Monday Night...Ridge slides further south down the FL Peninsula as
next frontal boundary approaches across the SE US states and some
increase in clouds is expected across inland SE GA through the
night where some low temps may be held into the lower 50s, while
the rest of SE GA and most of inland NE FL will still see low
temps fall into the mid/upper 40s under mostly clear skies along
with some locally dense fog across inland areas, especially along
the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL.

Tuesday...Weakening frontal boundary will slow down and washout across
SE GA through the day with very little way in upper level support
or low level convergence for anything except a few isolated
showers, but overall will remain a dry forecast with rainfall
chances less than 20 percent at this time. Temps will continue
above normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s across SE GA closer
to the frontal boundary under partly sunny skies, while max temps
will be closer to 80 degrees across NE FL to the south of the
frontal boundary where winds will remain Southwest.

Tuesday Night...Frontal boundary completely washes out with some
increase in low level moisture to support locally dense fog over
inland areas otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and milder
overnight lows in the 50s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Wednesday...Weak ridge will remain south of the region with warm
southwest surface flow continuing the above normal temps with
highs in the mid/upper 70s SE GA and around 80F across NE FL under
partly sunny skies.

Thursday...Next frontal boundary approaches through the SE US
states and breezy SW flow will develop at 15-20G30 mph and will
likely push max temps to near record levels in the lower 80s.
Daily records listed in the climate section below. Some pre-
frontal shower and possible isolated thunderstorm activity will
push into SE GA during the afternoon hours, then reaching into NE
FL during the evening hours, then clearing the region and into the
Atlantic Coastal waters likely during the overnight hours. Some
cooler air will reach into the area towards Friday morning with
lows into the upper 40s across inland SE GA, but still only
dropping into the 50s across NE FL.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday...Long range models in agreement that a
much colder air mass will settle into the region, but just how
cold is still in question with some bringing sub-freezing temps
into the local area by late in the weekend. Overall expect a
series of dry frontal passages through the weekend and for now
expecting below normal temps with highs mainly in the 60s and lows
in the 30s inland and around 40 along the Atlantic Coast. Could be
another set up for some potential Frost over inland areas on
Saturday and Sunday morning, but confidence remains low in any
sub-freezing temps, but it remains a possibility for inland SE GA
and the Suwannee Valley by late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of this TAF period.
The exception will be inland, where fog is expected to develop
overnight. The greatest chance for fog affecting visibilities and
possibly creating low stratus pre dawn to a few hours past sunrise
will be at KGNV and KVQQ. This fog may be slow to lift, possibly not
clearing until 14z or so. Prevailing VFR conditions will then be
expected for the remainder of Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

High pressure will settle directly over our local waters through Monday
night. A weakening frontal boundary will push across the
southeastern states on Tuesday, with this feature stalling over
the Georgia waters by midweek. Southwesterly winds will then
strengthen on Thanksgiving Day ahead of a stronger cold front that
will dive towards our area by Thursday night. This frontal
passage will likely be accompanied by showers and a few
thunderstorms from Thursday evening through Friday morning. Strong
northwesterly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of
this frontal passage on Friday and Friday night, reaching Small
Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk through mid week as calm winds
and low wave heights continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

High pressure over the area will continue another day with low
daytime dispersion due to light transport winds on Monday. Min RH
values will fall into the 30-35 percent range across NE FL Monday
afternoon but winds should be light enough to prevent any fire
weather headlines. Critical RH values are not expected Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Daily record highs for Thursday November 28th at local climate sites...

JAX 85/1948
CRG 83/1985
GNV 87/1948
AMG 83/1990

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  75  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  50  72  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  49  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  43  76  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  42  77  45  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$