835
FXUS62 KJAX 101727
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
127 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A similar forecast to yesterday is in store for the rest of the
afternoon and evening. Heavy rain showers with isolated
thunderstorms will bring a flooding rainfall threat, mainly for
urban and poor drainage areas as well as locations with saturated
soils (such as Glynn county) that received quite a bit of rainfall
the past few days. While the strong thunderstorm threat is low,
there is still a low chance for some wet downbursts. Temperatures
will trend a little lower than normal due to the enhanced cloud
cover over most of the area today. Showers will linger near the
southeast Georgia coast through the night into early Monday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Moist southerly prevailing flow will continue through Monday with
PWAT values measuring upwards of 2.3 inches, with widespread to
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rainfall developing throughout the forecast area. Convection will
start to become less widespread by Tuesday as high pressure
ridging from out of the Atlantic extends in over the region. High
temperatures for the beginning of the week will warm into the
lower to mid 90s by Tuesday with heat index values potentially
reaching up towards Heat Advisory criteria before midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Convection will become less widespread for the latter part of the
week as high pressure ridging builds in over the region. Showers
and storms will develop with diurnal heating, forming along the
daytime sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision. High
temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend will
rise to be above the seasonal average with max temps in the mid
90s. Heat Advisory conditions are expected through the period for
much of the forecast area as heat index values rise to 110 and
higher with daytime heating.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Thunderstorm activity will begin to increase over the next few
hours, with TEMPOs in place at all the TAF sites. SSI will likely
see a continuation of showers through the night, whereas the
northeast Florida sites will see convection taper off after
sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain across the local
waters through the weekend bringing with waves of showers and
storms. This front becomes diffuse Tuesday as high pressure builds
northeast of the region. The high builds east of the local waters
mid to late week, with a continuation of southerly winds at below
headline levels.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues today and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  88  73  91 /  50  70  30  60
SSI  77  88  79  90 /  70  70  40  50
JAX  75  91  76  94 /  60  70  20  60
SGJ  76  91  77  91 /  60  60  20  60
GNV  74  92  74  94 /  50  70  20  50
OCF  75  91  75  93 /  50  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$