Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
287 FXUS62 KJAX 130449 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1249 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surface trough over the Carolinas will drop southward Today across NE FL/SE GA with a Northwest steering flow, then position itself over the nearshore Atlantic Coastal waters just East of NE FL/SE GA tonight with the steering flow becoming northerly. This transition will lead to the advection of PWATs around 2 inches or more southward into coastal SE GA and most of NE FL, while some slightly drier airmass aloft will build into inland SE GA today, which will limit convection there to just widely scattered coverage, while the inland movement of both the Atlantic/Gulf coast sea breeze fronts inland across NE FL will lead to numerous to widespread coverage of rainfall by the mid-late afternoon/evening hours, with scattered strong storms with gusty winds of 40-50 mph, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall from storm activity across all of NE FL, with localized flooding expected, mainly in urban areas. Convection will fade after sunset over inland areas, but will linger over the Atlantic Coastal waters along the surface trough axis through the overnight hours on Sunday Night. The NW steering flow pattern will lead to Max Temps into the mid/upper 90s across inland SE GA, where less rainfall coverage is expected, with lower/middle 90s across coastal SE GA and most of NE FL, these above normal temps will combine with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s to push peak heat indices into the 104-108F range and very close to Heat Advisory criteria of >= 108F for 2 hours or more. For now will likely hold off an any heat advisory issuance for a couple of reasons, first to start the day there will likely be plentiful convective debris clouds this morning leftover from storms along the trough axis to the north of the area, and secondly the coverage of rainfall expected by the mid-late afternoon hours across coastal SE GA/NE FL will likely bring an earlier end to any Heat Indices around 108F, so will be tougher to actually reach the 2 hour criteria for Heat Advisory. Above normal temps will continue Sunday Night with lows in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 An area of low pressure that is expected to be centered off the SE GA and NE FL coasts Monday morning, will track southwest across forecast area Monday, then into the northeastern Gulf Monday night. The low will continue to track further west into the Gulf Tuesday into Tuesday night, as high pressure builds to the east northeast. Due to the track of the low, and convergence along its track the greatest chances for showers and storms this period will be over NE FL. A few strong storms with periods of heavy rainfall will be possible. Monday will be the hotter of the two days, with heat indices approaching advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Area of low pressure is expected to move west across north central Gulf through Thursday, as high pressure ridging builds across forecast area from the east northeast. This high pressure ridge will remain across area through Saturday. This is expected to be a wet period, with above average precipitation chances. Temperatures will be near to a little above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through Sunday morning. A brief period of MVFR ceilings between 2,000 - 3,000 feet will be possible at the terminals during the late morning hours on Sunday, but confidence is still too low to include anything other than scattered ceilings at this time. Showers and thunderstorms will develop after 17Z along the Atlantic sea breeze boundary near the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals, with activity then expected to shift inland after 19Z, with coverage and intensity of convection expected to increase during the mid to late afternoon hours. Thunderstorms should shift west of the I-95 corridor by 23Z, with activity potentially lingering into the early evening hours at VQQ and GNV. PROB30 groups were included at each terminal on Sunday afternoon for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR visibilities during heavier downpours. Surface winds will shift to west-northwesterly shortly after sunrise, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots by 14Z. The inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary will shift winds to east-southeasterly after 17Z at SGJ, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots, while southerly winds of 10-15 knots are forecast at SSI after 18Z. Convection chances will decrease during the evening hours at Regional terminals and expect just VCSH to develop with lingering VFR conds in the 02-06Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Atlantic high pressure extending its axis westward across the Florida peninsula will shift southward Today as a weak trough develops near the Gulf Stream waters. This trough will then slowly migrate westward across our local waters on Monday, with this feature shifting into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase across our local waters beginning later on Monday and Tuesday, with prevailing winds shifting to southerly by Tuesday as this trough slowly organizes over the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards midweek. SCA/SCEC headlines are not expected this week. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rips with surf/breakers of 1-2 ft today and Monday as morning offshore flow, becomes onshore during the afternoon and evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 74 97 73 / 30 20 50 20 SSI 92 78 92 78 / 40 40 40 20 JAX 95 75 95 75 / 60 40 70 20 SGJ 93 74 92 75 / 70 40 70 20 GNV 94 74 95 73 / 80 60 90 30 OCF 93 74 93 74 / 90 60 90 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$