275
FXUS62 KJAX 121741
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
141 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hazardous Beach & Surf Zone Conditions through Monday. Frequent rip currents all local beaches  High Risk. Rough Surf, Breakers 5-8 ft  High Surf Advisory

- Moderate Tidal Flooding through Monday: St. Johns River Basin. Extended duration of tidal flooding for St. Johns River next week. Minor Impacts at coast & ICW

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions through Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Sunny skies and warming temperatures near 80 prevailed across
northeast Florida early this afternoon with increasing mid and low
clouds across SE GA ahead of a low level trough rotating southward
across the low offshore of the Carolina Atlantic coast. Dry WNW
low level winds were much weaker compared to recent days with peak
gusts near 20 mph at times.

A few off and on radar returns continued across southeast GA, but
the dry airmass below the mid clouds is limiting rainfall reaching
the ground. Continued to advertise low chances (20-30%) of light
showers or sprinkles for SE GA generally along and north of a
Douglas to St. Marys line this afternoon through midnight as the
low level trough axis slides southward across the area. High
pressure west of the region will continue to extend an axis across
our FL zones which will limit rain chances to less than 10%
despite increasing cloud cover into the evening.

Another near to below normal night with lows in the mid to upper
50s inland to low 60s toward the Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

High pressure continues to gradually build into the region through
Monday from the northwest as low pressure continues to pull away
to the northeast, persisting a dry and fair pattern overall
through the short term and beyond. Mainly sunny skies with drier
dew points in the 50s to low 60s will be dominant on both Monday
and Tuesday, with a more northwesterly breeze Monday becoming more
north to northeast for Tuesday as a pseudo backdoor type of front
moves through Monday and Monday Night. The main caveat to the fair
and drier conditions will be regarding continuing coastal
flooding, as a modest breeze from a northerly component will help
to keep some water trapped in the St. Johns River basin
especially. Coastal flood warning remains in effect for the St.
Johns River Basin from about the Main Street Bridge in Jax
southward through Monday, with an coastal flood advisory closer to
the mouth of the St. Johns. At least advisory conditions will
likely be extended for the entirety of the river through Tuesday
and Tuesday Night as well, even with a lowering of expected tides.
Regarding temps: plenty of sunshine will allow temps widespread in
the low to mid 80s for both Monday and Tuesday. Mainly clear skies
during each night will result in lows mainly in the 50s over the
interior and low to mid 60s by the St. Johns River and coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

As mentioned above, mainly dry and fair weather are expected to
continue throughout the long term at this time as high pressure to
our north dominates. The associated high will shift eastward
towards the Great Lakes by around Wednesday/Thursday (as compared
to northwest of the region) before guidance is in pretty good
agreement that this surface high will start to drift more south
and eastward towards/across the Carolinas by the start of next
Weekend. This looks to reinforce the dry, subsident airmass
towards the end of next week, possibly ushering in some of the
lowest dew points/low level humidity of the fall season so far.
Temps trend near to slightly above normal for the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mid level clouds continued to stream across SSI with MVFR ceilings
still expected by 22z per upstream observations. Low chances
(20-30%) of light showers this evening for SSI through midnight
with MVFR conditions an VCSH. After 04z, IFR potential increases
at SSI with MVFR potential toward JAX, CRG and VQQ through
daybreak. Low confidence on how far south the MVFR deck slides
southward tonight toward JAX terminals, so at this time kept bases
FEW-SCT 015-020 through daybreak with prevailing MVFR only at
SSI. After 12z, mid and low cloud cover decreases with NNW winds
and VFR conditions.

A low level trough axis sliding southward across northeast Florida
this afternoon was briefing producing gusts near 20 kts, otherwise
prevailing WNW to NNW winds ranged from 8-12 kts at the
terminals. Inland winds decouple to < 5 kts tonight to 7-10 kts at
coastal terminals. More of a NNW to NNE flow develops Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Main update was to end nearshore waters Small Craft Advisory by 8
pm this evening. The offshore Small Craft Advisory continues
through midday Monday due to elevated combined seas.

Offshore flow prevails today and Monday with elevated combined
seas continuing Small Craft Advisory conditions over the local
waters between high pressure northwest of the region and low
pressure to the northeast. Northeast winds increase late Tuesday
into Wednesday as a front moves across the local waters and high
pressure builds northeast of the region through the end of the
week, with a return of Small Craft Advisory conditions likely for
at least the offshore waters.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk continues through Monday for
all local beaches. A high risk may be needed Tuesday for northeast
FL beaches but a moderate risk is expected for southeast GA
beaches. Breaker heights will continue to subside at local beaches
with 3-6 ft expected Tuesday, below High Surf Advisory criterion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Moderate tidal flooding impacts over the next couple of days will
continue to focus in the St. Johns River Basin between downtown
Jacksonville (Main Street Bridge) southward to Lake George where
high tide inundation will peak between 2.0-2.5 ft MHHW with
trapped tides. The amplitude of peak tides will slowly dampen over
the coming days.

Offshore WNW flow will reduce the tidal flooding threat today with
peak inundation still expected to reach minor flooding levels of
1.5 to 2 ft MHHW around the afternoon high tide (1 pm - 2 pm) for
the coast. A coastal flood advisory remains in place for the coast
today. The area of exception for the coastal tidal flooding will
be the Intracoastal Waterway, especially in St. Johns and Flagler
counties where localized Moderate Tidal flooding is expected with
inundation of 2-2.3 ft MHHW - but not as high as yesterday`s peak
tide for this event.

Northeast winds return midweek which may prolong minor or elevated
tidal flooding through the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  57  81  56 /  30  20   0   0
SSI  75  62  80  63 /  20  30   0   0
JAX  79  60  82  60 /   0  10   0   0
SGJ  80  63  80  65 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  82  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  81  59  83  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ038-132-137-
     325-633.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     138-233-333.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-225.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ138-233-333.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$