193
FXUS64 KJAN 170201
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
901 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures will continue for the remainder of the week and
  weekend, but lower humidity should help to reduce heat stress.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Short-term weather elements have been updated through tomorrow
afternoon with the latest guidance, but no significant
adjustments have been made. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Through Thursday: Continued hot and humid along with dry weather.
Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around
a large and anomalously stout mid level high centered over the
Tennessee valley. This large high will shift slightly west through
Thursday. Latest surface analysis had a >1020mb centered over the
southern Appalachians that will continue to ridge back across our
CWA through Thursday. Although near record high temperatures are
possible at Greenville and Greenwood Thursday, drier air from the
east will lower humidity and therefore help mitigate heat stress
concerns. Peak heat index values Thursday will approach 105F over
the western half of the CWA with lower heat index values to the
east. /22/

High pressure will remain over the Southeast CONUS heading into the
weekend. The high pressure will gradually move westward and an upper-
lvl low will increase moisture/humidity across the area late Sunday
into next week. Diurnal rain chances will return Monday and last
through the mid-week. Although 15-30% rain chances will be possible
across the area, heat stress concerns are likely as highs remain
above-average to near record high temps over the forecast period.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions and winds generally less than 10 kts are expected
to prevail at the TAF sites through the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  95  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      70  95  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     73  95  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   70  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       73  95  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    74  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SW/NF