Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
029 FXUS64 KJAN 111429 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 929 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 929 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue across our forecast area this morning as global guidance continues to highlight a 1020mb sfc high hovering over the Gulf. Sky cover will remain clear across the southeast region as 12Z sounding observations indicate a dry atmosphere. A quick look at the GOES 16 visible satellite shows no clouds over our CWA. The lack of cloud cover combined with daytime heating will allow for afternoon highs to peak into the mid to upper 70s areawide. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Through mid next week... A busy week ahead as the pattern continues to be very active with multiple systems expected, with severe weather likely. Given that these systems are still several days away, expect adjustments to the forecast as more data become available. Through mid week: A quiet period of weather will continue today into tomorrow under the influence of ridging at the surface and aloft. High temperatures will warm into the 70s today and tomorrow ahead of our next weather maker. A shortwave trough will eject across the southern CONUS Wednesday and promote an onset of rain and storms Wednesday evening. While moisture return in response is meager, strong deep layer shear around 50 to 60 kts in the presence of steep mid level lapse rates (7 to 8c/km, 29-31 vertical totals) could promote an elevated hail threat. Given the lack of surface based instability, this should be the main concern with this event. The presence of a strong capping inversion does introduce some uncertainty, as the cap could be too strong. Generally, areas further west have a greater chance of hail threat. Storms will migrate east generally along the HWY 82 corridor and should clear the area by Thursday afternoon with shortwave ridging in its wake ahead of the next system. A marginal risk has been highlighted for the HWY 82 corridor for Wednesday night through mid day Thursday with a primary threat for hail. Friday and Saturday: Conditions continue to look favorable for a multi-day severe weather event Friday into Saturday. An upper low is progged to eject across the midwest Friday and in response a warm front will lift across the area. With much of the upper support displaced north of the area, the warm sector appears more suppressed initially for this round. That said, shear and instability appears ample even Friday for severe storms capable of all hazards. The shape of the warm sector suggests potential for a forced squall line to push across the area. There could be perhaps a few supercells ahead of this line. Damaging winds look to be the primary threat, but the environment also supports tornadoes and hail. The biggest question for this initial round is just how far north does the warm sector get with main upper support lifting well north of the area. This initial round also serves to precondition the environment ahead of Saturday`s event, which looks more potent. The longer wave trough ejects across the central CONUS Saturday and will elicit an even greater low level response with the arrival of more perturbed flow around the base of the trough, only adding to the already moist warm sector from Friday. As a result, dewpoints will be in the upper 60s across a broad area. Following a brief lull early Saturday morning, a mid to upper jet will overspread the area, resulting in strong deep layer shear. Supercellular mode appears favored and will carry a threat for all hazards, possibly significant hazards, including strong tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. Storms look to initiate across SW/Central MS and should pose a threat for large hail initially with low freezing levels and strong shear and instability. The environment will also be favorable for tornadoes, possibly strong, even initially late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon with long curved hodographs present across much of the area, south and east of the Natchez Trace. As storms track east/northeast Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours, strong tornado threat should continue as mature storms maintain a tap into a favorable environment. Threat looks to maximize in our area early Saturday evening, in the vicinity of the I-59 corridor with the arrival of the midlevel speed max and a strengthening low level jet. Severe threat should end later Saturday night as the cold front clears the area. There are additional secondary lower end threats for localized flash flooding and strong gradient winds as well. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area Friday in response to the surface low. Winds could gust 25 to 30mph ahead of storms. While fast storm motions limit greater flash flood risk, heavy rain rates could result in some localized flooding. All of this said, will continue to message an enhanced risk across the area Friday through Saturday. This event appears to have a high ceiling. Should the environment verify and storms reach their full potential, a more significant severe weather event could occur. As mentioned previously, this will likely continue to be adjusted so continue to check back for updates. Early next week: In the wake of the storms, calm weather returns with ridging gradually building back in. Temperatures should steadily warm into the upper 70s early next week./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with sfc winds light to calm before becoming southwesterly by 11/14-15Z Tuesday & stronger into the aftn, sustained up to 10mph & gusts up to 15-20mph. Winds will lighten by 11/22-23Z but light southerly winds will persist in central to western TAF sites through the end of the TAF period. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out in the Pine Belt around daybreak Wednesday but confidence is too low to introduce at this point. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 47 77 59 / 0 0 0 30 Meridian 76 46 76 57 / 0 0 0 30 Vicksburg 75 49 76 59 / 0 0 0 30 Hattiesburg 78 46 79 58 / 0 0 0 20 Natchez 74 50 76 59 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 73 49 74 59 / 0 0 0 60 Greenwood 75 50 76 59 / 0 0 0 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/SAS/DC