920
FXUS64 KJAN 230003
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
703 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Tonight through next Wednesday:

Tonight through Friday:

Quiet and pleasant conditions are expected through Friday as a sfc
ridge remain over the area. Patchy fog will be possible Friday
morning in the southeast MS with dissipation after sunrise. High
temps in the 80s to near 90 in the southeast and low temps ranging
in the 60s to lower 70s.

Friday night-Saturday:

As the ridge begin to move eastward, rain chances will return as
southerly/southwesterly flow bring moist air into the region. With
moisture returning to the area, upper-lvl northwest flow will help
several shortwave traverse the area.

CAM models are showing a remnant MCS moving out of the Central
Plains Friday night towards the ArkLaMiss region. Models have
disagreement in sustainability of the MCS as it moves southeastward;
however, sufficient instability will be in place should the MCS
holds together. Two outcomes will be possible with this disturbance:

1) could sustain overnight/re-develop during the afternoon hours

2) completely dissipate during the morning with no afternoon re-
development

Although uncertainty with the forecasted MCS, a Marginal (1 out of
5) risk for severe weather should storms become elevated Saturday
afternoon and evening. Primary hazards expected are damaging winds
and hail.

Beginning Sunday through end of extended period:

Additional shortwave disturbances are anticipated to push through
area in the perturbed NW flow regime and interact with a frontal
boundary in the vicinity of the area. Ongoing shower/t-storm chances
are likely through Wednesday with the highest probabilities on
Monday and Tuesday afternoon (60-85% probability). Timing is mainly
afternoon, but there`s uncertainty as any evolving MCS could reach
the area at any time. Additionally, some storms could reach severe
limits during this period; however, too much uncertainty to have
much confidence at this time on specifics. Lastly, will need to keep
an eye on heavy rainfall as there`s opportunity for portions of the
area to see a few rounds of storms into the middle of next week.
Again, too much uncertainty to get into specifics, but some
potential does exist. CE/SW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions and light wind will prevail through the forecast
period. The exception may be a brief period of low stratus/fog
that may creep northward into southern portions of the forecast
area, particularly in the HEZ to HBG area near daybreak. Any
stratus/fog should dissipate by mid Friday morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  89  71  90 /   0   0   0  30
Meridian      63  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  30
Vicksburg     67  90  71  91 /   0  10   0  20
Hattiesburg   68  93  71  92 /   0  10   0  30
Natchez       68  89  71  90 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    65  85  69  85 /   0   0  10  30
Greenwood     65  86  68  85 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/CE/SW