492
FXUS64 KJAN 312323 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
623 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a limited threat (level 1/4) for dangerous heat with
  heat index values peaking near 105 for the remainder of today
  and again Monday.

- Thunderstorms may bring severe weather threat (level 1/5) today
  through Tuesday with damaging winds being the primary concern
  during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This afternoon through tonight: There is a marginal risk for
isolated severe storms roughly along a peak instability axis
(mixed layer CAPE > 4000 j/kg) extending from southern AR through
central to southeast MS. Disorganized convection is gradually
increasing along this axis with continued heating of the very
moist boundary layer, but conditions aloft (anticyclonic and
subsident) associated with a subtropical stream ridge, are not
supportive of this activity becoming more than isolated in
coverage. Given the hot sfc conditions with high theta-e values
leading to steep low level lapse rates and big overall CAPE, there
is a conditional risk for a few pulse type severe storms to
develop late this afternoon into early evening.

After a lull in the action overnight, we`ll see the threats
reemerge Monday afternoon into the evening. The difference tomorrow
however is that storms will be more likely to organize into a
convective system due to favorable shear/boundary interactions and
high levels of instability and boundary layer moisture convergence.
Once it becomes more obvious when/where the storm organization will
occur, we`ll most likely need to upgrade severe categories to slight
(level 2/5) or perhaps even enhanced (level 3/5) in localized areas.
As of now, uncertainty is too great to go more than marginal (level
1/5) per SPC. The threat for storms will continue into Tuesday over
southern portions of the area where the coverage should be confined.

Otherwise, heat stress will continue to be a concern (limited
threat - level 1/4) over mainly western/southern portions of the
area, peaking Monday afternoon, and then like the storms, becoming
more confined over southern portions of the area Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. /EC/

Tuesday night through Saturday: It is becoming more certain that
a backdoor front will bring a few days of relief across most of
our area from the increasing heat stress, with dewpoints dipping
into the 50s and 60s and low temps deep into the 60s over most of
the area Wednesday and Thursday. This will also curtail rain
chances each day. Low level moisture will steadily begin to
recover from west to east Friday into Saturday with a resurgence
of 70s dewpoints and mainly diurnal convection by next weekend.
/DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR flight categories will continue to prevail at area TAF this
evening, and through much of the overnight hours. Scattered low
stratus and patchy shallow ground fog will again be possible
around day break Monday. This could bring a one to three hour
period of MVFR/IFR categories at sites where observed. By early
afternoon, VFR flight categories will again prevail areawide. But
isolated to scattered convection will begin breaking out across
the area as daytime heating increases, with the potential for a
southward diving complex of isolated severe storms affecting the
area from mid-afternoon Monday into Monday evening. As a result,
this could again bring a degradation of flight categories to area
TAF sites if observed within a sites`s respected aerodrome. Winds
will generally subside to calm overnight, but increase to around
5- 10 knots from the west and northwest by late Monday morning,
with gusty winds expected in and around any convection during the
Monday afternoon/evening hours. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  93  73  89 /  20  30  40  30
Meridian      72  93  72  88 /  10  40  40  50
Vicksburg     75  93  74  90 /  20  10  20  20
Hattiesburg   74  93  73  91 /  20  40  20  60
Natchez       75  94  74  92 /  10  20  10  40
Greenville    74  93  73  88 /  10  10  50  10
Greenwood     73  93  72  88 /  10  20  70  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19