423
FXUS64 KJAN 050300 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Much needed rain is falling across the entire area.

  - A brief cool down is expected early next week as dry weather
    returns.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Rest of tonight into early Sunday...

Stout trough in GOES East water vapor imagery is swinging into
the northern Great Lakes, driving a strong cold front southward
into the Gulf Coast states. This increased moist advection and
frontal convergence is driving the rain and storm coverage ongoing
across the area this evening. Majority of the area northwest of
the Natchez Trace into the Delta are falling behind the front,
with ongoing convection persistent ahead of the front. With the
earlier insolation gone and destabilization shunting further
southward to the Pine Belt and Gulf Coast, this has diminished
severe threat. In conjunction with SPC, we dropped the earlier HWO
graphic advertising a severe threat, but cannot fully rule out a
stronger storm overnight. Good soaking rain is ongoing and still
could see some bouts of a couple inches or so at most for some of
the heavier convective rates. Even with that being said, this is a
good beneficial rain that should help alleviate recent drought
concerns somewhat. Outside of the Delta, seasonable warmth is
still expected tonight, some 5F to 10F above (54F to 62F), while
seasonable in the Delta (48F to 53F). Winds turn northerly and
gusty at times tonight in the wake of the front. Earlier updates
are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Through Tonight:

A deepening low pressure system is moving across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today into tonight. Its
associated cold front extends back to the south through the
Mississippi River Valley. A moist and destabilizing warm sector
exists ahead of the approaching cold front, and a broad swath of
rain has developed along the front. Cloud cover across our forecast
area is slowly breaking up late this morning, with around 1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE available for early surface-based convection. Deep layer
shear is lacking at the current time, so any showers or storms will
be loosely organized to start. Even as the front pushes into our
area this evening, deep layer shear will be a limiting factor for
organization. Our initial storm activity today for monitoring is
developing around central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi and
should spread north through early this afternoon. The main line of
showers and storms along the front will continue to push south and
east through instability, with the consensus of high-res guidance
having the line to southeast Mississippi by midnight tonight or a
little after. Without sufficient shear, the threat for severe storms
today into tonight is Marginal. By the time storms make it to our
southeast, the threat for any severe storms will be ending, but some
strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall are still possible.

Sunday through next Saturday:

The cold front will continue to push south and east tomorrow, cooler
and drier air bringing an end to rain chances through the day. Temps
through Monday night will actually be slightly below normal, which
is a relief from recent very warm late March/early April temps. The
relief won`t stick around too long. High pressure shifting to the
east and shortwave ridging aloft will bump temps to at or above
normal for the back half of the week. Low-level trajectories will
favor dry air reinforcing from the east most of the work week.
There`s some hint at rain chances around the southern periphery of
our CWA around next Thursday, but confidence is low at this time.
/NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Cold front is moving through the area, bringing northerly winds in
northwest TAF sites, while widespread rain and storm coverage and
flight categorical reductions to MVFR to at times IFR, which will
worsen into the overnight hours. Frontal position and rain timing
seems a touch faster, so there could be faster improvements in
ceilings, but expect IFR flight categories and gradual switch to
northerly winds, with gusts at times, through the overnight and
into Sunday. Rain showers will clear through midday Sunday, with
majority cleared out afterwards. Any lingering MVFR ceilings will
clear out of the Pine Belt into mid-afternoon hours. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       55  70  49  70 / 100  20   0   0
Meridian      55  71  47  70 / 100  50   0   0
Vicksburg     54  69  48  70 / 100  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   61  72  51  71 /  90  60  10   0
Natchez       54  69  49  70 / 100  20   0   0
Greenville    50  66  46  70 /  90   0   0   0
Greenwood     51  69  46  73 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/NF/DC