257
FXUS64 KJAN 050555 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1155 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

A front remains stalled WNW to ENE from roughly GLH to TUP early
this evening. Near and to the south of this front, considerable
low level moisture persists within an unseasonably warm airmass.
This has resulted in persisting and evolving low cloudiness and
fog throughout much of the day and into this evening. These will
continue through the overnight hours, with the main forecast
concern in the near term being dense fog potential. Already this
evening, there has been locally dense fog across parts of the
ArkLaMiss Delta, and fog is also now beginning to develop across
parts of central LA and south MS. There remains a good deal of
uncertainty as to how much clouds, particularly higher clouds
encroaching on southern portions of the area, may play on
interfering with fog development overnight. For now, we will
continue to highlight fog in the forecast and the potential for
dense fog in local hazard outlook graphics. When it becomes more
clear where dense fog will be a widespread issue, it is likely
dense fog advisories will be needed for some portion of the area
later on tonight. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Through Tomorrow:

The effects of shortwave ridging over our region are being felt in
the near-record warm temperatures being observed this afternoon.
Despite abundant low-level moisture and cloud cover, breaks in the
clouds have seen temps spike to the upper 70s (even 80 measured here
at KJAN). Considering the min temperatures in lower 60s this morning
and again tonight, temperatures today are about 15 to 25 degrees
warmer than normal for early February. A cold front sits just to our
north, with the wind shift noted as far south as Greenville and
Greenwood, MS; but an unmoving surface low over the ArkLaTex region
today has prevented further advancement of the colder air. And it
has allowed for continued warm, moist advection from the south.
Misty, foggy, overcast weather will envelop the region once again
tonight as this soupy air mass persists. Have opted to include a
"Limited" threat for fog to local graphics, with uncertainty in how
much low stratus coverage in the evening will prevent fog
development. But where fog does occur, it has the potential to be
dense.

As an upper-level disturbance moves east through the central part of
the country tomorrow, chances for rain will increase especially for
the northern half of our forecast area as the front lifts northward.
Once again, near-record warm temperatures are expected as clouds
break down. The added instability could yield a few thunderstorms,
but no severe weather is expected at this time. Activity should move
east of our area by the late afternoon hours tomorrow. /NF/

Wednesday Night through next Wednesday...

A few small adjustments have been made to the extended forecast
regarding rain chances heading into the weekend/early next week.
Otherwise, no other significant changes have been made to the long-
term as the synoptic pattern still remains the same. Model consensus
from both the GFS and the NAM still supports quasi-zonal flow that
will continue across much of the CONUS with a subtropical ridge
centered over the Bahamas/Cuba. Southerly windflow will also be
prominent across the southeastern states with will help promote a
warming trend across the southeast CONUS throughout the late week.
Looking ahead into the mid-week, a weak upper-level disturbance/low
will develop over the Tennessee River Valley Region. PoPs have been
decreased Wednesday night through Thursday night with the northern
parts of our CWA still having the best chances of seeing scattered
rain showers ranging from 20-30% across the Golden Triangle. Rain
chances will come to an end on Friday morning with a few lingering
showers possible across northeastern portions of our CWA.

The warming tend will also continue throughout the mid-week
maximizing by the weekend on Saturday. Record high daily
temperatures (as well as warm record lows) could be possible around
this timeframe across our forecast area if high temperatures
over perform.

Looking ahead into the weekend, global guidance continues to show
the Upper low hovering over the Ohio Valley Region tracking
northeast towards the Upper East Coast. The cold front associated
with the upper low will start to shift south towards the ArkLaMiss
around this timeframe. this will allow for decent rain chances
(along with an isolated t-storm or two) around for northern and
eastern portions of our CWA Saturday night through Sunday.

Heading into the new work week, future guidance shows the cold front
shifting closer towards our forecast area. This will allow for rain
chances to increase across the area heading into Monday. Afternoon
highs for Monday will peak in the upper 50s north of I-20.
Elsewhere, areas south of I 20 see highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Showers  and t-storms will continue across the entire forecast area
looking ahead into Tuesday with slightly higher PoP chances around
50-70% as another cold front shifts south towards the northern half
of our CWA. Scattered showers will continue across central MS
looking ahead into Wednesday with higher PoP chances (roughly
between 50-70%) along and east of I-55. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

IFR cigs and LIFR vsbys were observed at 0530Z at most TAF sites.
Conditions are expected to lower through 12Z with LIFR conditions
prevailing through 16Z. After 16Z vsbys wl improve rapidly but
cigs wl take until after 21Z to become VFR. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail arewide after 00Z THU. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  79  63  81 /  10  30   0  10
Meridian      61  78  60  80 /  10  30   0  10
Vicksburg     64  79  63  81 /  10  20   0   0
Hattiesburg   61  78  61  81 /   0  10   0  10
Natchez       64  79  64  81 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    58  75  64  79 /  10  40   0   0
Greenwood     62  78  64  79 /  20  50   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/NF/CR/22